1 ERDENES TAVAN TOLGOI REVENUE SURGES DUE TO HIGHER COAL PRICES WWW.NEWS.MN PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      2 RUSSIA AND MONGOLIAN BORDER CROSSING NO. 487 WWW.NEWS.MN PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      3 WORLD ECONOMICS REPORTS THAT MONGOLIA’S EMPLOYMENT RATE HITS A FIVE-YEAR HIGH WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      4 USD HITS RECORD HIGH IN MONGOLIA DUE TO HIGHER IMPORTS WWW.CHINA.ORG.CN PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      5 READOUT OF VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE’S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER UKHNAA KHURELSUKH OF MONGOLIA WWW.WHITEHOUSE.GOV PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      6 MONGOLIA LAUNCHES EU-FUNDED PROJECTS TO PROMOTE GREEN DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WWW.XINHUANET.COM PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      7 COAL EXPORTS FROM TOP SHIPPER HOBBLED WITH MINERS FACING CONSTRAINTS WWW.MINING.COM PUBLISHED:2018/09/20      8 FRONTIER'S "INVEST MONGOLIA TOKYO 2018" WWW.MONGOLIANBUSINESSDATABASE.COM PUBLISHED:2018/09/19      9 U.S.-CHINA TRADE TUSSLE IS CREATING WINNERS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA WWW.BLOOMBERG.COM PUBLISHED:2018/09/19      10 YUSAKU MAEZAWA: THE JAPANESE BILLIONAIRE WHO WANTS TO FLY TO THE MOON WWW.BBC.COM PUBLISHED:2018/09/19      ШЕНГЕНИЙ БОГИНО ХУГАЦААНЫ ВИЗИЙН МЭДҮҮЛГИЙГ УЛААНБААТАР ХОТОД АВНА WWW.MEDEE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     2018 ЭХНИЙ 7 САРД МОНГОЛЧУУД ГАДААД РУУ ЭМЧИЛГЭЭНД ЯВАХДАА 19.5 САЯ АМ.ДОЛЛАР ЗАРЦУУЛЖЭЭ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     ӨНӨӨДӨР ТӨВ ТАЛБАЙД 4000 АЖЛЫН БАЙРАНД БҮРТГЭНЭ WWW.DNN.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     ЗАЛУУЧУУДЫН ГАРААНЫ БИЗНЕСИЙН ШАЛГАРСАН ТӨСӨЛД 10,0 САЯ ТӨГРӨГИЙН ДЭМЖЛЭГ ҮЗҮҮЛЛЭЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     WORLD ECONOMICS: МОНГОЛЫН АЖИЛ ЭРХЛЭЛТИЙН ТҮВШИН СҮҮЛИЙН 5 ЖИЛИЙН ДЭЭД ТҮВШИНД ХҮРЛЭЭ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     ERD: "ХӨНДИЙ" АЛТНЫ ТӨСЛИЙН ТОГТООГДСОН НӨӨЦ 751 МЯНГАН УНЦ АЛТ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     ХЯТАДЫН $200 ТЭРБУМЫН ИМПОРТОД ТАРИФ ТОГТООВ WWW.ZGM.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     ШИВЭЭХҮРЭН БООМТООР ХОНОГТ 60-80 МЯНГАН ТОНН НҮҮРС ЭКСПОРТОЛЖ БАЙНА WWW.GOGO.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/19     БНХАУ-ЫН 200 ТЭРБУМ АМ.ДОЛЛАРЫН ИМПОРТОД 10 ХУВИЙН ТАРИФ НОГДУУЛАХ ШИЙДВЭР ИРЭХ 7 ХОНОГООС ХЭРЭГЖИНЭ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/18     ӨВӨЛ ЦАХИЛГААН СААТВАЛ ХОТ ДӨРВӨН ЦАГИЙН ДОТОР Л ХӨЛДӨНӨ WWW.ZGM.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2018/09/18    

Events

Name organizer Where
Frontier's "Invest Mongolia Tokyo 2018" Frontier Securities Tokyo Japan
"Open to Export" ICC WTO International business award ICC WTO London

NEWS

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Prospects for more BOJ stimulus fading, economists split on next move: Reuters poll www.reuters.com

 
The likelihood of more monetary stimulus in Japan is diminishing, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were largely split on the central bank's next policy move, signaling a possible turning point in expectations for its easing cycle.
 
The latest Reuters survey of economists conducted Feb. 13-17 showed the outlook for growth and inflation for the world's third-largest economy broadly in line with the January poll.
 
However, economists have pared back their expectations for the Bank of Japan to ease its already ultra-accommodative monetary policy, as the outlook for global growth improves and the yen weakens.
 
While the analysts don't expect any change soon, 15 of those surveyed said it will pull back from its ultra-easy monetary policy when the BOJ does decide to alter its policy, while 17 said its next move will be to ease.
 
That compares with 12 to 18 in the January poll and 10 to 21 in December.
 
The BOJ will likely stay the course this year, said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, though he expects inflation to pick up and wages to improve in 2018.
 
"So the BOJ could raise the 10-year government bond yield target in the middle of next year," he said.
 
"But that would be too early to raise negative interest rates."
 
The central bank has lowered short-term interest rates to minus 0.1 percent and bought billions of yen worth of bonds and other assets in a campaign to boost inflation and growth. In September, it adopted the unusual tactic of trying to keep the 10-year bond yield around zero percent.
 
Some analysts expect the BOJ will likely cut the pace of its annual increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) holdings from the current 80 trillion yen sometime this year.
 
"The BOJ has shifted its policy targets to interests rates, so we expect the central bank will drop the target of the amount of an increase in JGB holdings eventually," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
 
The poll showed the BOJ will maintain its interest rates at minus 0.1 percent imposed on some excess bank reserves at least until the second quarter of 2018.
 
Easing would mean lowering the short- and long-term rate targets, while tightening would mean raising them or cutting back on its massive asset-buying, a measure market participants call "tapering."
 
Analysts who forecast a possibility for further easing say that would happen in the case of sudden spikes in the yen, which hurts exporters by eroding their overseas earned income.
 
The government will tolerate the yen strengthening to about 100 against the dollar, according to 16 of the 27 economists who responded to the question on the currency. Three economists pegged it between 110 to 105 yen.
 
The remaining eight economists said beyond 100 yen, and to as far as 80 yen was acceptable. The currency was last trading around 113.40 yen to the dollar on Tuesday.
 
In a separate Reuters survey, FX analysts maintained their view for a weaker yen outlook, with the Japanese currency forecast to weaken about 7 percent to around 120.0 in a year from the poll date.
 
TRUMP SUMMIT
 
A rise in protectionism poses the biggest threat to the pace of economic growth in major economies, which are vulnerable to political forces at a time when global trade is at risk.
 
But the summit between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month was largely positive, according to all but one of the 33 economists who answered an extra question in the latest poll.
 
The two leaders also agreed to establish a bilateral economic dialogue, to be led by Taro Aso, finance minister - who also serves as deputy prime minister, and Vice President Mike Pence, focusing on issues such as economic policies, infrastructure, energy and trade.
 
Almost three-fourth of the 33 economists who answered another question said the risk for a redux of 1980s and 1990's trade disputes as low, but 10 economists predicted they may get acrimonious.
 
"Japan's share of the U.S. trade deficit is not big and auto makers have shifted their production in the U.S, so the situation is different from that of 1980s," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank. "The trade issue of the U.S. lies between China, not Japan."
 
The poll projected that Japan, the world's third-largest economy, will grow 1.2 percent in the fiscal year starting April and 1.0 percent for fiscal 2018, according to the poll. Last month, they forecast 1.1 percent and 1.0 percent growth, respectively.
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Erdenet to Ovoot Railway construction to move forward www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ On February 17, Ulaanbaatar Railways JSC (UBTZ) and Northern Railways LLC signed a memorandum of understanding to progress a number of key commercial agreements required to support construction funding of the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway. These include the commercial terms upon which the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway users can access the UBTZ line to move freight through to end markets in Mongolia, south to China or north to Russia.

This would encompass a capacity nomination regime and long term tariff structures. It is expected that the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway users will become the largest users of UBTZ rail services over time.

Commercial agreement will also be needed in respect of UBTZ’s traffic management and line maintenance capabilities as well as cooperating on the rehabilitation of the Erdenet to Salkhit spur line that connects onto the main line. This is a 164 km line that has limited capacity availability to absorb the substantially higher capacity that will be required to service the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway users and will require significant rehabilitation over time.

In August 2015, Northern Railways LLC was granted an exclusive 30 year concession by the Mongolian Government to build and operate the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway. Northern Railways LLC is a Mongolian registered rail infrastructure company, mandated to pursue the development of the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway, and is supported by a consortium consisting of Aspire Mining, and subsidiaries of fortune 500 listed China Railway Construction Corporation.

The Erdenet to Ovoot Railway extends 549 km between the town of Erdenet to Aspire Mining company’s Ovoot Project, which connects northern Mongolia to China and international markets. In accordance with Mongolian National Rail Policy, the Erdenet to Ovoot Railway is a multi-user rail line and will be available for the transport of bulk materials, agricultural and general freight from the region to export markets including China, Russia and seaborne markets.

Northern Railways LLC is progressing funding negotiations for the completion of a bankable feasibility study and other studies to support applications for licenses, permits and approvals, as well as progressing negotiations for the EPC contract and financing of the railway construction.

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Foreign Minister’s visit to China continues www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia Ts.Munkh-Orgil is on an official visit to the People’s Republic of China at the invitation of his counterpart Wang Yi. On February 20, Monday, the Foreign Minister met with three officials - Li Yuanchao, Vice President, Fu Ying, Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress and Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce.

Vice President Li Yuanchao expressed his confidence that the visit by Mongolia’s Foreign Minister will contribute to strengthening mutual political trust and progressing bilateral ties. In return, the Foreign Minister noted that developing friendly relations with China is a main direction in Mongolia’s foreign policy, and that Mongolia attaches a great significance to bilateral strategic partnership. He invited the Vice President to pay a visit to Mongolia at his convenience.

During the meeting with Chairperson Fu Ying, sides agreed that the establishment of a regular parliamentary exchange mechanism between Mongolia and China was crucial to cooperation between the law-making bodies of the two countries, and a joint meeting of the mechanism should be held in the near future.

Foreign Minister Ts.Munkh-Orgil and Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng exchanged views, and agreed on enforcing Mongolia-China trade and economic cooperation, carrying through agreements reached on high level, organizing a meeting of the working group of Mongolia-China intergovernmental commission, intensifying the task to establish a joint border region, accelerating the implementation of projects funded by non-refundable aids and soft loans, and organizing trainings and seminars under Silk Road Fund and Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank. The Chinese side expressed its readiness to work towards expanding bilateral financial ties at this time of economic difficulty in Mongolia.

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Copper price turns higher again – Grasberg gashed www.mining.com

In New York on Monday copper for delivery in March jumped 1.6% to $2.7515 per pound or $6,066 a tonne after listed copper miner Freeport McMoRan said negotiations with the Indonesian government to restart exports from its Grasberg mine in Papua province has stalled. Copper is trading at levels last seen late May 2015 with year-to-date gains of just under 9%.

Phoenix-Arizona-based Freeport said in an update as a result its operating subsidiary in the country PT-FI "is proceeding with its plan to suspend investments in Papua, reduce its production by approximately 60 percent from normal levels and implement cost savings plans involving significant reductions in its work force and spending levels with local suppliers."

Freeport said its 25%-owned smelter in the Asian nation which has been hit by a strike expects to resume operations in March, but warned that its first quarter production has taken a substantial hit:

Assuming resumption of PT Smelting’s operations in March and a continuation of the ban on exports, FCX estimates its first quarter sales will be reduced, resulting in deferrals of approximately 170 million pounds and 270,000 ounces, representing a reduction of approximately 17 percent for copper and 59 percent for gold of its consolidated first quarter sales.
Freeport Indonesia is proceeding with its plan to suspend investments in Papua and reduce its production by approximately 60 percent from normal levels
In January Freeport said for each month of delay in obtaining approval to export, the Indonesian subsidiary's share of production is projected to be reduced by approximately 32,000 tonnes of copper and 100,000 ounces of gold.

Freeport also said consolidated sales volumes from Indonesia mining operations assuming normal operations, including the resumption of concentrate exports in February 2017 and the renewal of its smelters export license are expected to total 590,000 tonnes of copper and 2.2 million ounces of gold for the year 2017.

Force majeure at Escondida
The copper price is also being kept on the boil after BHP Billiton declared force majeure at its Escondida mine in Chile ten days ago saying it could no longer meet contractual obligations on metals shipments from the mine, the world's largest copper operation by a wide margin.

The union representing some 2,500 striking workers at Escondida last week agreed to participate in government mediation, and according to a Reuters report BHP will be attending a meeting on Monday if blockades of non-striking workers and contractors are lifted.

BHP operates and majority owns the mine with fellow Melbourne diversified giant Rio Tinto. The previous labour deal was signed four years ago when copper was trading around $3.40 a pound.

In its recent financial results BHP expected full-year production at Escondida of 1.07 million tonnes, which gives the mine a nearly 5% shares of global primary copper production. BHP also cut full year guidance by 40,000 tonnes to 1.62m tonnes.

After a relatively quiet year in 2016 for supply disruptions (there is around a 6% production swing factor in global production of over 20 million tonnes) due to bad weather, labour action and other unforeseen events, 2017 is already off to a bad start.

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Thai economy slows as the country mourns late king www3.nhk.or.jp

 
Thailand's economy lost steam during the quarter ending in December. Cutbacks and curbed consumption occurred after the country went into mourning for the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej who died in October.
 
Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board announced on Monday that the country's GDP expanded 3 percent during the quarter compared to a year before.
 
That's 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter, and the lowest in a year.
 
A decrease in the number of tourists slowed down the overall economy. Personal consumption also slowed during the period to mark a growth of 2.5 percent compared to a year before.
 
But the planning agency expects the economy to expand between 3 to 4 percent this year, thanks to the brisk global economy.
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Dulux owner invests in UK paint research www.bbc.com

 
AkzoNobel, the company that makes Dulux and Hammerite paint, is investing €12.6m (£10.7m) in a new research facility in north-eastern England.
The firm, known for its Old English sheepdog mascot, is putting the money into its R&D site in Felling, Gateshead.
As well as household paint, the firm produces specialist coatings for the mining and energy industries.
AkzoNobel said Felling was the "logical spot" for this investment.
The new facility will be able to simulate extreme environments, similar to the North Pole or a fire on an oil rig, to test new products.
"We are creating a kind of a campus of different research and development activities and strengths that we can then use for products that can be sold in the rest of the world," Ton Buchner, AkzoNobel's chief executive, told the BBC.
The company already employs 270 people at its site in Felling. The investment in a UK hub, rather than expanding research facilities elsewhere, would safeguard those jobs.
Research will focus on protection to make hydroelectric dams last longer, coatings to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants and innovations in fire protection.
Pound effect
A €110m Dulux paint factory in nearby Ashington, Northumbria, is also about to begin production, the firm said.
AkzoNobel's chief executive, Ton Buchner, told the BBC that the vote for Brexit was not an obstacle to further investment in the UK.
The fall in the value of the pound since the EU referendum had "actually made it easier for some of the exporting of the products that are there", he said.
AkzoNobel is based in Amsterdam, and reports its financial results in euros. The fall in the pound, therefore, reduces the amount AkzoNobel earns from the UK.
But if the pound remains weak, then money invested into the UK will go further than in its other major research sites in Singapore and the Netherlands.
However, Mr Buchner said prices could rise for some products in the UK as a result of the devaluation of the pound.
"There is a possibility prices are going up in some of the areas where we sell into the market," he said.
The company's most recent accounts show decorative paints revenue was down 4% in 2016, "mainly due to unfavourable currency effects, in particular the pound sterling and currencies in Latin America".
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Greece: EU and IMF in 'common position' www.bbc.com

 
German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said the institutions in charge of Greece's bailout have reached a "common position" on how to proceed.
His comments appear to indicate that deadlock between the EU and the International Monetary Fund over the next steps may have been resolved.
The IMF has said Greece needs more leeway to pay its huge debts before further rescue funds can be released.
However, the eurozone has been reluctant to go much further.
Arriving for a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, Mr Schaeuble said: "I believe the institutions have a common position and that we will get to a point today where the technical mission can go to Athens so we can get a result."
The IMF said it was indeed sending a mission to Greece, but it was "too early to speculate" about whether some sort of agreement would be reached as a result.
It added: "More progress will be needed to bridge differences on other important issues."
No 'haircut'
In its most recent assessment of the Greek economy, the IMF said: "Greece cannot grow out of its debt problem. Greece requires substantial debt relief from its European partners to restore debt sustainability."
Eurozone governments have provided some debt relief already, in the form of lower interest rates and extended repayment periods. IMF staff think Greece needs more concessions.
However, the Fund has said there was no need for what it calls an "upfront haircut" - a reduction in the principal that has ultimately to be repaid.
In another development, the head of the European Stability Mechanism - the eurozone's bailout fund - said in a newspaper interview that Greece's finances were improving faster than expected.
Klaus Regling told Germany's Bild that Greece would probably need far less than the agreed maximum loan of 86bn euros (£73bn) by August 2018 as a result.
Athens has made a 2bn-euro repayment to the bailout fund as expected, which Mr Regling said showed "Greece is a reliable contract partner. It is a sign that the restructuring of the Greek banking sector is progressing well."
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Global weapons sales highest since end of Cold War www.rt.com

 
Over the last five years, the world trade in arms has reached a level not seen since 1990. The Middle East and Asia remain the key markets for weapons, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
 
India is still the world’s largest arms buyer, accounting for 13 percent of global imports between 2012 and 2016 against 9.7 percent the previous five years. The country bought most of its arms from Russia.
 
“While China is increasingly able to substitute arms imports with indigenous products, India remains dependent on weapons technology from many willing suppliers, including Russia, the USA, European states, Israel and South Korea,” said Siemon Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI’s arms and military expenditure program.
 
Saudi Arabia, which leads a military intervention in Yemen, became the second biggest buyer of arms, followed by the United Arab Emirates, China, and Algeria, the study said.
 
The kingdom’s arms imports soared 212 percent compared to the previous five years, accounting for 8.2 percent of global weapons imports. Riyadh bought weapons mostly from the US and the UK, the report said.
 
All in all, arms imports by countries in the Middle East increased 86 percent in the five years through 2016 with Qatar increasing purchases by 245 percent. However, Iran, being under an arms embargo, received only 1.2 percent of total arms sales to the region.
 
The US remained the world's biggest arms exporter, accounting for 33 percent of all weapons sold in the five years through 2016, the study found. Russia is the second largest supplier, while China took third place.
 
“The US has delivered a lot of weapons in 2016, both very expensive weapons and strategically important weapons - missile systems, surveillance and navigation technology. The weight of the US in the global arms trade is so big that it's enough to shape the trend,” said Aude Fleurant, the director of SIPRI's arms and military expenditure program.
 
US and Russia together supplied more than half of all exports. China, France, and Germany were also among the top five exporters.
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Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as world's top crude producer www.rt.com

 
Russia has once again taken the crown from Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producer. The two countries are global leaders in crude production by a wide margin, trading the top spot from time to time.
 
Russia produced 10.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, down 29,000 barrels a day from November. Saudi Arabia’s output dropped to 10.46 million bpd from 10.72 million bpd, according to Monday's data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative in Riyadh.
 
This was the first time Russia became top producer since March 2016. Riyadh’s crude exports fell to eight million bpd from 8.26 million bpd in November, the biggest monthly slide since May 2003.
 
The United States is in third place, producing 8.8 million bpd in December. At the same time, America is neck-and-neck with China as the world's largest crude importer, buying 7.88 million bpd of crude last year.
 
The growth in US production mostly came from the Texas’ Permian Basin and Eagle Ford regions, which have better quality oil. However, local refineries can’t process it because they are geared to process poorer quality crude from Canada and Venezuela. The US producers export the higher quality oil and import what they need from abroad.
 
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and oil producers outside the cartel led by Russia have agreed to prop up prices by cutting production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year to curb a global oversupply.
 
On Monday, Brent crude was trading at $56.18 per barrel, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose to $53.69.
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"Accounting best practices" MBD Business mission to Sydney, Australia (Registration will be closed in 2 days) www.mongolianbusinessdatabase.com

Mongolian Business Database (MBD) is starting to register the Mongolian business delegates to "Accounting best practices" theme targeted business program jointly with Saki partners Australia www.sakipartners.com.au and Dr.Nigel Finch, Honorary Consul-General of Mongolia in Sydney.

The business program includes a half day special training seminar and Australian accounting and financial company visits.

The Australian Partner Dr. Finch is a Managing Director of Saki Partners, Chartered Accountant, a Chartered Tax Adviser and a Fellow of CPA. He is a member of the Representative Council of CPA Australia, a director of the Australia Mongolia Business Council and a director of several companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. He recently served as a Dean of Accounting Department of Sydney University.

For more information please visit the following link http://www.mongolianbusinessdatabase.com/base/eventsdetails?id=17 and register at contact@mongolianbusinessdatabase.com or by tel: 77109911 and 98994787.

The registration will be closed by February 22, 2017.

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