1 CHINA IS STARTING TO EAT INTO ITS EMERGENCY RESERVES OF PORK WWW.CNN.COM PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      2 INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONGOLIA-CHINA CASHMERE INDUSTRY ORGANIZED WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      3 BEIJING, MOSCOW, RUSSIA, MULL OVER ARCTIC GAS PIPELINE ACROSS MONGOLIA TO CHINA WWW.SILKROADBRIEFING.COM PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      4 AMOUNT OF OUTSTANDING LOANS TO ENTITIES DECREASES BY MNT23 BILLION WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      5 TAX REVENUE REACHES MNT6.2 TRILLION AS OF FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2019 WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      6 DECREASES SHOWED IN EXTRACTION OF MOLYBDENUM CONCENTRATE AND GOLD WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      7 EXPORTS OF MINERAL PRODUCTS, TEXTILES AND PRECIOUS METALS MAKE UP 95.7 PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPORT WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      8 TSAIRT MINERAL: EXPORTS DECLINED AS ZINC PRICE DROPS WWW.ZGM.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/13      9 MONGOLIA TO JOIN INTER-AMERICAN CONVENTION ON SERVING CRIMINAL SENTENCES ABROAD WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/12      10 MATTIA ROMANI: MONGOLIA’S BEEN EXCELLENT PARTNER FOR EBRD WWW.ZGM.MN PUBLISHED:2019/09/12      НҮҮРС, ТӨМРИЙН ХҮДЭР, ЖОНШНЫ ЭКСПОРТ ӨСӨВ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     ГАДААД ХУДАЛДААНЫ ЭРГЭЛТ ӨМНӨХ ОНЫ МӨН ҮЕЭС 11.9 ХУВИАР ӨСЛӨӨ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     ХЭРЭГЛЭЭНИЙ БАРАА, ҮЙЛЧИЛГЭЭНИЙ ҮНЭ 0.3 ХУВИАР ӨСЖЭЭ WWW.EAGLE.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     МОНГОЛБАНК МӨНГӨН ТЭМДЭГТИЙН НУУЦЛАЛЫГ САЙЖРУУЛЖ БАЙНА WWW.IKON.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     ЦАЛИН ӨНГӨРСӨН 9 ЖИЛД 3 ДАХИН НЭМЭГДСЭН Ч ХУДАЛДАН АВАХ ЧАДВАР 58.8% Л ӨСЖЭЭ WWW.IKON.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     ХЭРЭГЛЭЭНИЙ БАРАА, ҮЙЛЧИЛГЭЭНИЙ ҮНИЙН ӨСӨЛТ УЛААНБААТАРТ 10.5%-Д ХҮРЭВ WWW.IKON.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     МОНГОЛБАНК ҮЙЛ АЖИЛЛАГААНЫ ШИНЭЧЛЭЛИЙН ХӨТӨЛБӨРИЙН ЯВЦАА ТАНИЛЦУУЛЛАА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     АЗИЙН ХӨГЖЛИЙН БАНКНААС 158.3 САЯ ДОЛЛАРЫН ЗЭЭЛ АВЧ ЭРҮҮЛ МЭНДИЙН САЛБАРТ ЗАРЦУУЛНА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/13     972 АЙЛЫН ТҮРЭЭСИЙН ОРОН СУУЦАНД ОРОХООР 35 МЯНГА ГАРУЙ ИРГЭН БҮРТГҮҮЛСНЭЭС 582 ӨРХ ТЭНЦЖЭЭ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/12     АХБ: 96 САЯ АМ.ДОЛЛАРЫН САНХҮҮЖИЛТИЙГ МОНГОЛ УЛСЫН ХУВИЙН ХЭВШЛИЙН ТӨСӨЛД ОЛГОСОН WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN  НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2019/09/12    

Mongolian Meat Price Time Series Forecast www.medium.com

Since September 2018 the average price per kilogram of mutton in Ulaanbaatar has increased by 35% (beef increased 26%). News outlets have been buzzing with talk of these price increases and even meat shortages. Headlines from many news outlets make it seem as if the sky is falling (see below for a particularly sensational headline from Ikon.mn). I hope to explain the market forces at play here and hopefully better understand why prices are at record highs.

How Meat Works in Mongolia
In Mongolia, meat prices are highly seasonal, with meat prices rising in the Spring and then falling in the Fall. The meat supply itself comes from nomadic herders who make up roughly 30% of the population. But these herders do not operate with anything resembling a western mode of production. Their behavior has more to do with herd health and preparations for the various challenges of each season.

“The price of meat is skyrocketing and there is a shortage!”
Here is a rough generalization of the behavior of herders. This, of course, does not speak for all herders but from what I have observed this is relatively typical behavior. In the Fall before winter sets in herders will slaughter or sell those animals which are likely to die in the coming winter. Then in the Spring during breeding season herders often restrict the amount they sell so as not to limit their potential growth that year. In the Summer the productive animals are known and herders are more willing to sell or slaughter those animals that are not pregnant.

With this cycle, it is clear that seasonal prices are primarily being driven by the supply of meat. Prices go down in the Fall, hit the bottom in the Winter, and then rise dramatically in the Spring, reaching the peak in the Summer.

To ensure the supply of meat, the government purchases extra meat when prices are generally low and freeze it for use in times when supply is lower. This program has been going on for several years and the Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry recently stated they will increase the supply of this reserve meat on the market. However, based on available data it is not clear whether this program actually works or does not. This reserve meat is frozen for several months and, from what I have observed, is much less desirable in the market.

Are increasing exports causing record prices?

Now that we have a short introduction to how the market works in Mongolia, let’s take a look at the factor most are blaming for the price increases, exports. Recently I was interview on MNB World’s weekly news program. Through this, I learned of the concern that international traders (particularly from China) are being blamed for buying meat in bulk, thus causing a meat shortage and prices to rise.

To understand this better I wanted to see if meat prices correlated with exports. After all, meat exports are not a new thing in Mongolia. If these exports were causing a fluctuation in the price of meat we should see these correlations. So let’s take a look!

Please review the full article with graphics at https://medium.com/…/mongolian-meat-price-time-series-forec…

BY: Robert Ritz



Published Date:2019-05-20