Bank of Mongolia (BoM) expected Mongolia’s total export to dive by USD 1.6 billion to USD 6.06 billion in 2020. BoM lowered its coal export outlook in regard to mineral resources, especially coal export plunges off in the first two months of this year. Mongolia’s export decreased by 35.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020, mainly driven by coal export shrinks. Particularly, the downward accounts for 19 percentage point out of 29.5 percent of coal export weaken in the first two months, said BoM. Further, coal exports are projected to fall by 5.6 million tons or USD 354.9 million from the previous quarter. Mongolian Alt LLC, one of the big exporter companies, informed earlier that the company had failed to reach its plan to produce seven million tons of coal this year. SouthGobi Resources also said that restricting coal exports would affect its sales. The central bank has also lowered its forecasts for iron ore exports by 720,000 tons or USD 53.7 million, and crude oil exports by 720,000 tons or USD 53.7 million. BoM assumed that copper export volume is expected to drop by 5900 tons but copper export will rise by USD 32.7 million with better price projection from the previous quarter. Oyu Tolgoi (OT) has not been ceased its coal concentrate export during the quarantine. However, China’s coal import has been reduced according to the border administrations. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that China’s copper demand will be diminished triggering global economic growth to slow down. The Bank of Merril Lynch speculated that copper prices will fall this year to USD 4,400 per ton if the worst perspective of OECD is achieved.

Published Date:2020-03-09