The current account and investment expenditure are expected to increase this year. According to the BoM, this will stimulate the growth of non-mining sectors and will raise the economy slightly above expectation. These sectors include construction, energy, processing, and retails. Although the economic growth is expected to be stable this year on the back of the progress in non-mining; however, the same growth driver will be the downside limitation for the economy in 2020, noted the BoM. On the other hand, the Government has a more optimistic expectation of 8 percent GDP growth based on four factors, namely the tax reform, budget investment, wage raise, and the construction of the oil refinery. The bill on tax reform has been submitted to the Parliament, but it has been put on hold on the order list.

As for international organizations, the outlook on economic growth is around 6-6.6 percent this year. In specific, the Asian Development Bank forecasts the GDP to rise 6.1 percent, which is 0.3 percentage point lower than the last year’s outlook. The bank previously explained that the investment in mining will continue on further; however, the growth will start to flatten.

International Monetary Fund predicted a 6 percent growth during the sixth review under the extended arrangement. Furthermore, the World Bank Group identified the key challenges to the economy, which includes the settlement of coal transportation issue at the border, growing uncertainty in politics and policy, as well as the adverse impact on the continuation of megaprojects prompted by the 2020 election.