After two straight weeks of youth protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, Mongolia’s political atmosphere has taken a sharp turn as instability mounts and prime minister contenders battle for power. While Mongolia’s young protestors have successfully mobilized a peaceful protest that seems set to result in a change of government, internal political dynamics and oligarchic interests are also at play here.
Two weeks into May, public outrage erupted after a social media post showcased Oyun-Erdene’s son’s lavish birthday and a fancy engagement proposal. Outraged young Mongolians used social media platforms to mobilize and execute protests.
As of May 27, the protests were entering their 14th consecutive day. The Instagram page @ogtsrokh_amarkhan has gathered nearly 60,000 supporters for a petition to not only oust Oyun-Erdene as prime minister but also overthrow the coalition government that he leads.
On May 26, organizers read the following extended demands to the public:
1. The resignation of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai under the premise of political and moral accountability;
2. Oust the coalition government and not to reconstitute a new coalition government;
3. For the purposes of government stability, not to amend the Constitution.
Although these demands are organic concerns raised by the people, without a coherent agenda, the door was opened for political shenanigans by the Mongolian leader.
Oyun-Erdene responded to the public’s demands last week, after days of silence. Speaking to members of the media, he stressed that the social media posts were personal matters and said that his son had not asked for any financial support from him. He emphasized that Mongolia’s Anti-Corruption Agency is currently investigating the situation and offered to resign – without protest – if the agency discovered any irregularities in his financial statement.
But Oyun-Erdene also broached a topic that he had not discussed publicly before, by mentioning certain families affected by his government’s decision making. Oyun-Erdene insinuated that some of the country’s mining oligarchs are seeking to remove him from office, as the coalition government has aimed to dismantle the oligarchic system. Oyun-Erdene’s government has been seeking to create a system in which mining conglomerates are obliged to share profits, either via taxation or by state ownership over a certain percentage of strategic sites. The prime minister implied that the mining oligarchs’ opposition to these policies was behind the movement to force his resignation.
The protests – and the demand for a just society and an end to corruption – emerged organically. But there’s no denying that the redistribution of wealth in Mongolia is of great concern to certain actors.
Observing the youth protest and the ongoing political environment, parliamentary members began to speak up but most remain hesitant to show full support for overthrowing the coalition government, fearing political instability. Mongolia’s ruling coalition consisted of Oyun-Erdene’s Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), the Democratic Party (DP), and the HUN Party.
The MPP held a party congress last week to hear Oyun-Erdene’s political statement. It ultimately decided to disband the coalition government by excluding the DP, after several members of the Democratic Party offered support for the protests. In response, the DP has formally demanded that the MPP provide a written explanation and public apology for its abrupt decision to remove DP from the coalition government without official notice.
Parliamentary member Uyangakhishig Gonchigdorj of the HUN Party told the media that “we need to assess the current situations separately – Oyun-Erdene’s social media matters [must be separated] from the coalition government’s work.”
She added, “The overthrowing of the coalition government will not protect nor defend Mongolia’s national interest. The ousting of the prime minister will need to go through the Parliament.”
A Democratic Party MP, Lodoisambuu Chuluunbileg, stated, “In the last two days, I have heard – in hearsay – that there are talks of $2 trillion to preserve the coalition government.” Neither he nor the press offered confirmation of the claim.
Lodoisambuu added that whether the coalition is to be disbanded, or Oyun-Erdene to resign, the parliament will need to discuss it.
As the youth protest continue to grow, a “battle of the five armies” – the coalition government, the MPP, the Democratic Party, the Parliament, and the Office of the President – will determine the government change. While political dealings can happen behind doors, especially within political parties, the mechanism and the power to maintain a stable government – and to constitute a new government – resides in the State Great Hural, Mongolia’s parliament. The fight for executive power is likely to center on political wrangling within the MPP, which holds over half the seats in the legislature.
Opposition parties, analysts, and constitutional experts have warned against a possible attempt to amend to the constitution, with a presidential election coming up in 2027. Under a 2019 amendment to the constitution, Mongolia’s president is limited to a single six-year term. But President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa’s power play within the MPP, and the power to steer the next government have increased suspicion of an amendment that might reshape the presidency.
On May 18, the Press Office of the President stated that Khurelsukh will not be seeking a second term in the 2027 election. Opposition party, observers, and some analysts say differently.
Democratic Party parliamentary member Temuujin Khishigdemberel stated that one of the roles of the DP as an opposition party is to defend the constitution, which bars Khurelsukh from seeking another term. Temuujin also highlighted the “three-headed government” of Mongolia, while claiming that the Office of the President was wielding its political powers within the MPP in choosing the next prime minister.
“The discussion on Mongolia considering becoming a presidential government is not a new topic,” political economy analyst and columnist Bolorerdene Bazarsuren told The Diplomat. “The current political situation is more a constitutional rather than a legal debate. In the case of Mongolia changing its governance model, there might a legitimate grounds for considering presidential governance.”
Other political analysts and observers have raised concern over the fact that neither the president, the prime minister, nor the coalition government has made a public statement amid 14 days of continued protest. As a result, the suspicion of backroom political dealings and the mingling of politics and business has only risen.
Protests are a healthy democratic function, where the youth assemble and voice their concerns. However, there are still reasonable grounds for concern over the stability of the Mongolian government amid opportunistic political shenanigans.
When it took office, the coalition government was a fresh face for Mongolia. It aimed to diversify the country’s mining-dependent economy, increase foreign investments, and proactively expand Ulaanbaatar’s foreign policy. The disbanding of the coalition government and reshuffling of the Cabinet certainly creates opportunities for other political factions to manipulate the situation to their advantage.
From a foreign policy standpoint, Mongolia once again will need to convince global partners that it is a stable, legitimate government that can deliver on its promises.
Despite the internal political chess game taking place as the country braces for another government change, this round of youth protests once again highlighted the vibrant but fragile nature of Mongolia’s democracy. With the protestors putting forward three concrete demands, it is likely that the parliament will yield to the will of the people. Thus far, the quest for strong, stable, continued government in Mongolia has been a difficult one.
By Bolor Lkhaajav

Published Date:2025-05-27