Reference Date: 05-May-2017
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Favourable outlook for 2017 wheat crop
Wheat import requirements in 2016/17 forecast to sharply decrease from last year’s high level
Prices of beef and mutton increased seasonally in recent months
Planting of the 2017 wheat crop is currently underway under generally favourable weather conditions. The total area planted to wheat this year is officially estimated at 362 100 hectares, 2 percent above last year’s high level. Considering the anticipated slight increase in plantings and assuming yields return to average, after reduced levels attained in 2016, FAO preliminarily forecasts the 2017 wheat output at 500 000 tonnes, 7 percent above last year’s good level.
Wheat and rice are the two major imported cereals, mainly from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 81 000 tonnes, well below last year’s high level of 244 000 tonnes. This reflects lower wheat imports, which are forecast at 50 000 tonnes, four times less than in 2015/16 and close to the five‑year average, reflecting the strong rebound in 2016 production. Imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are anticipated in 2017 to remain close to the previous year’s level of 25 000 tonnes.
Prices of beef and mutton, which are main local staple foods, have been increasing seasonally since October 2016 in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, reflecting low market supplies. Overall, meat prices in February 2017 were above their year-earlier levels. Meat prices have the usual seasonal lows during October-December and highs during May-July.
Wheat flour prices in Ulaanbaatar were relatively stable throughout 2016 but decreased slightly at the start of this year, owing to good market availabilities from the 2016 bumper output.