Mongolia’s economy is recovering and GDP growth is now projected at 3.3 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2018, reflecting buoyant external conditions and improving confidence. Key targets have been achieved.

Important structural reforms are underway to lay the foundations for long-term growth and break the boom-bust cycle. The key near-term focus is supporting the authorities’ policies to strengthen the banking sector and enhance fiscal policy making.
The IMF welcomes the authorities’ commitment to continue the reform momentum to cement the long-term benefits.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Mr. Geoff Gottlieb visited Ulaanbaatar from October 18-30, 2017 to conduct discussions on the first and second reviews of the three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement approved on May 24, 2017, in an amount equivalent to SDR 314.5054 million, or about US$434.3 million (see Press Release No. 17/193).

At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Gottlieb made the following statement:

“The economy is growing more strongly than expected, with GDP growth likely to reach at least 3.3 percent this year on the back of strong coal exports, a robust recovery in services, and a return of confidence following the approval of the $5.5 billion IMF-supported package. Growth is expected to become more broad-based in 2018 as the domestic economy revives, but there are downside risks to the coal sector.

“Performance under the program has been positive, with all quantitative targets met. Fiscal results have been better than expected, supported by stronger revenues and tight expenditure control. The overall fiscal deficit is likely to be 7.5 percent of GDP this year compared to 17 percent in 2016. The authorities’ proposed 2018 budget is in line with the revised program that envisages a deficit of 6.5 percent of GDP. The authorities have committed to save half of any revenue overperformance should it materialize, thus helping to reduce borrowing and ensure debt sustainability. The remainder would be used to fund productive one-off spending in line with the government action plan. Both this year and next, the authorities have allocated a one-time bonus to civil servants. Net international reserves have improved, and the authorities have rolled over the sovereign bonds maturing in 2017 and 2018 at attractive interest rates, removing a key risk to the external position.

“The authorities have moved ahead with their ambitious structural reform agenda, which will help to sustain growth over the medium term, promote diversification and competitiveness, and mitigate the boom-bust cycle. The rehabilitation and strengthening of the banking system is underway: the results of the comprehensive Asset Quality Review are expected in mid-December; important legal reforms are being drafted to strengthen the financial system; and improvements to the regulatory and supervisory framework are under way.

“On the fiscal side, steady progress is being made in strengthening tax administration, tax policy, and budgetary controls, including through the establishment of a fiscal council and a high-level working group on tax policy. It is important that the reform momentum is maintained in 2018 to cement the long-term benefits of such policies on promoting inclusive and sustainable growth. In this regard, it is encouraging that the commitment of the new government to the program policies remains strong.

“The authorities and the team have reached staff-level agreement on the completion of the first and second reviews under the EFF arrangement, which is subject to the approval of the IMF Executive Board.

“The team thanks the authorities for their cooperation, constructive dialogue, and hospitality during its stay in Mongolia.”

Published Date:2017-10-31