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Bridging Continents: Unlocking the Potential of Pakistan-Mongolia Ties www.mongoliaweekly.org
Pakistan and Mongolia, separated by thousands of miles, share a history marked by ancient trade routes and cultural exchanges. While their formal diplomatic relationship dates back to 1962, concrete economic and political cooperation has remained surprisingly limited.
Recent high-level meetings suggest a renewed interest in strengthening ties, but substantial obstacles persist. This analysis will examine the geopolitical context shaping these nascent efforts, considering Mongolia's balancing act between its established partnerships with Russia and India and the potential benefits and risks associated with closer engagement with Pakistan.
We will examine the geopolitical context shaping these nascent efforts, considering Mongolia's balancing act between its established partnerships with Russia and India and the potential benefits and risks associated with closer engagement with Pakistan.
This nascent interest is further exemplified by the meeting between Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene in October 2024 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad.
Trade between the two nations is strikingly underdeveloped. In 2022, Pakistan's exports to Mongolia totaled a mere $2.96 million, primarily consisting of soap, pharmaceuticals, and apparel, while
Mongolian exports to Pakistan dwindled to a meager $5.75k. Although Pakistani exports have seen a 14.6% annualized growth over the past five years, the absolute figures remain negligible compared to both countries' broader trade relationships.
This minimal economic exchange underscores the historical disconnect between their economies and highlights the challenges in fostering meaningful trade partnerships.
Despite this, Sharif's meeting with Oyun-Erdene signaled a renewed focus on boosting bilateral trade. While leaders identified potential areas for growth – Pakistan’s textiles, agricultural goods, and pharmaceuticals finding a market in Mongolia, and Mongolia’s minerals and rare earths supporting Pakistani industry – translating these aspirations into concrete outcomes will require overcoming substantial logistical and economic barriers. The creation of a Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) and an inter-parliamentary mechanism are initial steps towards building the necessary frameworks for enhanced engagement, but the significant gap between current trade volumes and future potential remains a stark reality.
Geopolitically, the potential for a Pakistan-Mongolia relationship unfolds within a complex web of regional dynamics. Mongolia's strategic position between Russia and China necessitates a careful balancing act. While Russia remains a key partner for energy and security, Mongolia has increasingly sought to diversify its relations, particularly with India.
India's growing investment in Mongolia, including the construction of a strategically vital oil refinery and discussions regarding coal imports, signifies a burgeoning partnership. This could complicate Mongolia’s potential relations with Pakistan, given the latter's historically complex and often strained relationship with India.
Mongolia could leverage Pakistan's Gwadar Port through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, this direct linkage is geographically improbable.
Mongolia and Pakistan
While Mongolia cannot directly join CPEC, it can engage with the broader BRI through the existing “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.” This pre-existing framework, which facilitates infrastructure development and economic integration across the three nations, provides a more realistic avenue for Mongolian participation within the BRI, although navigating the complexities of this trilateral cooperation remains a significant challenge.
Furthermore, any potential deepening of relations must be considered in the context of Pakistan's internal political and economic turmoil. Current economic challenges, including high inflation and debt, pose substantial hurdles for both countries.
Pakistan's political instability creates further uncertainty, hindering its capacity to commit to long-term economic partnerships and creating an unfavorable environment for foreign investment. These domestic factors raise serious questions about Pakistan's ability to deliver on any potential promises of enhanced trade or infrastructure development, impacting the feasibility of significant cooperation with Mongolia in the near term.
The prospect of enhanced economic and geopolitical cooperation between Pakistan and Mongolia remains, for now, more aspirational than realistic. While diplomatic engagements such as the Sharif-Oyun-Erdene meeting—with its establishment of a JMC, an inter-parliamentary cooperation — indicate goodwill and a desire to explore avenues for partnership, bridging the substantial geographic, economic, and political divides will require sustained and focused efforts.
Similarly, while promoting people-to-people connections through scholarships, academic partnerships, and tourism initiatives—as discussed in the Sharif-Oyun-Erdene meeting—represents a worthwhile endeavor, it is unlikely to drive significant economic transformation on its own.
The symbolic proposal to declare 2025 the "Year of Pakistan-Mongolia Friendship" highlights the desire to build cultural bridges, but the practical challenges of expanding tourism, leveraging Mongolia's natural beauty and Pakistan's historical sites, are considerable, constrained by limited infrastructure and the sheer distance between the two countries.
The potential benefits for both countries, including access to new markets and enhanced regional connectivity, are undeniable. However, realizing this potential hinges upon overcoming considerable challenges, ranging from limited trade infrastructure to Pakistan’s domestic economic and political instability, and requires careful navigation within the existing framework of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and Mongolia’s crucial relationships with India and Russia.
by Mannal Irfan
Mannal Irfan is a student at the University of Essex studying global affairs and international politics.
Published Date:2024-12-02
