Harvesting of the mostly irrigate 2025 wheat crop finalized last September and production is officially estimated at 282 000 tonnes, almost 40 percent below the previous five-year average. The reduced output reflects both a contraction in sowings, as farmers opted to grow more profitable vegetables and cash crops, and low yields due to dry weather conditions and abnormally high temperatures between May and July 2025, particularly in the central and western parts of the country. During this period, for about ten days the average air temperatures reached between 37°C and 39°C. In addition, extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and hail, also occurred. As a result of unfavourable weather conditions, production of other key crops also declined compared with the previous year. Production of potatoes declined by about 23 percent, vegetables by about 22 percent, forage crops by about 46 percent and oil crops by about 49 percent.
Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast well above-average level
Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat plus small quantities of rice. Wheat import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at a well above-average level of 230 000 tonnes, driven by reduced domestic production in 2024 and 2025, and by the strong domestic demand for high‑quality wheat for human consumption. For the 2025 calendar year, imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are forecast at an above average level 50 000 tonnes, reflecting increasing domestic consumption. The country will also rely on imports to cover domestic needs for potatoes and vegetables, due to the reduction in domestic production.
Prices of beef and mutton meat at record levels in July 2025
Wheat flour, and beef and mutton meat are the main staple foods in the country. Domestic prices of beef meat increased steadily since November 2024 and, as of July 2025, they reached record levels in various markets, increasing by 10 to 20 percent on the high levels of a year earlier. Domestic prices of mutton meat increased also from November 2024, reaching record levels in April 2025. Then, prices softened slightly but, as of July 2025, they remained between 7 and 33 percent higher than the elevated levels of a year earlier in different markets. The recent record prices reflect seasonal trends that were well amplified by the reduced domestic availability of livestock products in markets due to significant livestock losses caused by the 2023/24 dzud event. A strong import demand of beef and mutton meat products from China (mainland), the country’s main importer, further supported domestic prices.
Retail prices of wheat flour reached record highs in August 2024 and declined sharply until January 2025, reflecting ample market availability following the commercialization of the 2024 domestic harvest and declining international wheat grain quotations. Since March 2025, wheat flour prices surged, particularly in western regions as seasonal upward pressure was compounded by expectations of a severely reduced 2025 harvest. As of July 2025, wheat flour prices were about 5 percent below last year’s record level. To curb the high domestic prices, particularly in western regions, the government announced, on 9 October 2025, the temporary suspension of import tariffs on wheat flour imported through the western border with the Russian Federation and China (mainland), effective from 16 October 2025 to 10 April 2026.

Published Date:2025-11-26