Copper touched $13,000 a ton in London for the first time on Monday, extending last year’s scorching rally that was fueled by mine outages and trade dislocations.
Benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange rallied as much as 4.3% to nearly $13,020/t, before pulling back to the $12,500 level.
Copper ended last year on a high, having notched a series of records on the LME. That resulted in its best annual performance since 2009 at more than 43%, making it the best-performing industrial metal on the bourse.
Mine disruptions
In 2025, output disruptions at major mines, such as the Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, raised concerns over the world’s supply of the metal, which is used in everything from data centers to electric vehicle batteries.
The same worries remain in the new year, exacerbated by a recent strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile. According to Al Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex, the work stoppage helped to fuel further speculative activity in the market.
“The reality is this is a speculative money-led bid as the market sees further topside, especially during the first quarter of 2026, with many having been sidelined hoping for a dip,” Munro said in a note.
“Years of underinvestment and ongoing mine disruptions have left the market with little buffer, while tariff policy uncertainty and stockpiling are intensifying the squeeze on available metal,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV. 
Tariff threat
In recent weeks, the renewed threat of US tariffs on copper has again led traders to ramp up shipments of the metal to American shores, reducing supplies elsewhere. President Donald Trump’s investigation into copper tariffs had already rocked the market once in 2025, sending prices in New York to records.
“We estimate the global refined copper market was in surplus in 2025, but metal/inventory flows were distorted by US tariffs that resulted in a material lift in US imports,” UBS Group analysts, including Daniel Major, wrote in a note Monday.
The US holds roughly half of global inventories, but only accounts for less than 10% of global demand, according to UBS. That means there is a risk of lower supplies elsewhere. The cash-to-three month spread in London remains firmly in backwardation, a pattern that points to near-term tightness, the bank said.
“Overall supply shortfalls, coupled with regional dislocation caused by US tariffs, are propelling copper,” China Securities Co. analysts led by Wang Jiechao wrote in a note. “The global copper market will see a shortage of more than 100,000 tons in 2026,” they said.
(With files from Bloomberg)

Published Date:2026-01-06