1 CLEAN-UP, INFRASTRUCTURE PREPARATIONS FOR COP17 UNDERWAY AT NATIONAL GARDEN PARK WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      2 BANK OF MONGOLIA PURCHASES 2,829 KG OF PRECIOUS METALS IN OCTOBER WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      3 SINGAPORE NOW HAS NON-STOP FLIGHTS TO MONGOLIA WWW.MAINLYMILES.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      4 PETRO MATAD ANNOUNCES UPDATES ON GAZELLE AND HERON WELLS IN MONGOLIA WWW.OFFSHORE-TECHNOLOGY.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      5 MONGOLIA SHINES AT WTM 2025 IN LONDON, UNVEILING ITS RICH CULTURE AND SUSTAINABLE TRAVEL TO A GLOBAL AUDIENCE WWW.TRAVELANDTOURWORLD.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      6 MONGOLIAN DOCTORS AND HEALTH STAFF ANNOUNCE STRIKE FROM NOVEMBER 13 WWW.THESTAR.COM.MY PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      7 ADB TO SUPPORT MONGOLIA’S DISASTER PREPAREDNESS THROUGH INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY WWW.ADB.ORG PUBLISHED:2025/11/07      8 MINISTER G.DAMDINNYAM: “WE HAVE FIRMLY DEMANDED THAT RIO TINTO END THE MANAGEMENT CONTRACT BASED ON THE “EXPIRED” DUBAI AGREEMENT” WWW.ARCTUSANALYTICS.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/05      9 MONGOLIA’S DEFECTOR DILEMMA: NAVIGATING THE KOREA DIVIDE WWW.THEDIPLOMAT.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/05      10 AIR INDIA TO FLY RELIEF AIRCRAFT TO MONGOLIA TO BRING BACK 228 STRANDED PASSENGERS WWW.INDIATODAY.COM PUBLISHED:2025/11/05      МОНГОЛООР ДАМЖИХ УМАРД СОЛОНГОСЫН ДҮРВЭГЧДИЙН ХЯМРАЛ: СОЛОНГОСЫН ХУВААГДАЛ ДУНДАХ ИДЕАЛИЗМ БА ПРАГМАТИЗМ WWW.ITOIM.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     "УХАА ХУДАГ"-ИЙН АСУУДЛААР ХЯНАН ШАЛГАХ ТҮР ХОРОО БАЙГУУЛАХ САНАЛ ХУРААЛТАД МАРГААН ГАРЧ, ХОЙШЛУУЛАВ WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     АКУА ГАРДЕН: ӨЧИГДӨР ТОВЛОГДСОН ШҮҮХ ХУРАЛ ДАХИН ХОЙШИЛЖ, ЗАХИАЛСАН 640 АЙЛ БАЙРАА ЗАРЖ ЭХЭЛЖЭЭ WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     ДУУЛИАНТ ХЭЛЦЭЛ: "РИО ТИНТО" ТӨМРИЙН ХҮДРИЙН УУРХАЙГАА ЧАЙНАЛКОД ӨГСНӨӨР АВСТРАЛИЙН ТӨСӨВТ 10 ТЭРБУМ АМ.ДОЛЛАРЫН АЛДАГДАЛ ҮҮСНЭ WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     МАХ, МАХАН БҮТЭЭГДЭХҮҮНИЙГ 211.2 САЯ ДОЛЛАРААР ЭКСПОРТОЛЖЭЭ WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     ЦАГ АГААРЫН УЛМААС НИСЛЭГИЙН ЗАРИМ ХУВААРИЙГ ӨӨРЧЛӨВ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     “ХҮНСНИЙ ХУВЬСГАЛ”-ЫН ҮР ДҮНД 53 ҮЙЛДВЭР АШИГЛАЛТАД ОРЖЭЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/07     ГАДААД ВАЛЮТЫН НӨӨЦ 5.9 ТЭРБУМ АМ.ДОЛЛАРТ ХҮРЛЭЭ WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/05     ОЮУ ТОЛГОЙГООС ЭРДЭНЭС ОЮУ ТОЛГОЙ РУУ ШИЛЖҮҮЛСЭН 18.3 САЯ ДОЛЛАРЫН ЗАРЦУУЛАЛТЫГ НУУЦААС ГАРГАНА WWW.ITOIM.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/05     БАГШ НАР НАМЖСАН Ч ЭРҮҮЛ МЭНДИЙН САЛБАРЫНХАН 5 ХОНОГИЙН ДАРАА АЖИЛ ХАЯНА WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/11/05    

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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Seoul's influencer fair "Seoul Con" will be exported to Mongolia www.mk.co.kr

On the 3rd, the Seoul Economic Promotion Agency announced on the 31st that it signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Mongolia's UG group to co-host "Seoul Con in Ulaanbaatar" in the first half of next year.
Through this agreement, UG Group agreed to pay royalties to the Seoul Economic Promotion Agency for the use of the name "Seoul Con." In addition, the two organizations actively utilized their capabilities and resources to highlight successful collaboration. Seoul Con's entry into Mongolia was first discussed through a forum on economic cooperation with Mongolia during the second Seoul Con program last year, and after months of negotiations, the Seoul Con in Ulaanbaatar was confirmed to co-host.
Mongolia UG Group is a comprehensive business group consisting of seven key affiliates and operates various industries such as convention, hotel, finance, construction, and automobiles. In particular, Seoul Con was very active in attracting Mongolia, as it suggested expanding cooperation with Korean institutions and companies as a key management strategy.
Meanwhile, Seoul Con, which marks its third anniversary this year, is the world's largest global influencer fair with creators, fandom, and industries. An official from the Seoul Economic Promotion Agency said, "The confirmation of the Mongolia event will be a meaningful step toward further strengthening Seoul Con's international status and expanding Seoul's creative ecosystem to the world."
The "2025 Seoul Con" will be held at Dongdaemun Design Plaza (DDP) in Seoul from the 29th of next month to January 1st of next year.

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British Business Centre opens a door in Ulaanbaatar www.mongolianbusinessdatabase.com

British Business Centre office&showroom, the new business project just launched its action which based on Mongolian Business Database NGO that has been operating 10 years of regular stable activity.
The permanent office or/and team will specifically aim to promote British Mongolian business relations, manage some particular product import and sales management (to be announced soon), franchise, B2B meetings, small scale of business events and shows.
British Business Centre wishes to express a special thanks to Ms.Sophie Worrall Deputy Head of Mission, the Embassy of the United Kingdom in Ulaanbaatar, Mr.Erdenesukh Director of Ersu company who implemented the all interior works of the office and Mr.B.Batbileg a famous artis who provided his great art works/authentic paintings of the Beatles, the Queen and Elvis Presley…
P:S. BBC office can share some space with 2-3 young aggressive professionals or/and entrepreneurs as a “coworking tenants”. Tel:99066062

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PM Zandanshatar Reviews Construction Progress of Oil Refinery Project www.montsame.mn

Prime Minister of Mongolia Zandanshatar Gombojav, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Damdinnyam Gongor, and Minister of Roads and Transport Delgersaikhan Borkhuu visited the construction site of Mongolia’s largest ongoing project, the Oil Refinery.
During the visit, Prime Minister Zandanshatar emphasized, “It is essential to advance the construction of the oil refinery without interruption and with full momentum to achieve our strategic goal of becoming self-sufficient in fuel supply and policy. The successful implementation of this project will play a pivotal role in driving forward other national programs and initiatives planned by the Government of Mongolia. The steadfast commitment of the leadership and staff of the project implementer, Mongol Refinery State-Owned LLC, along with the dedicated efforts of the Indian project management consultants and main contractors, has been instrumental in accelerating construction progress. I extend my appreciation and best wishes to all engineers, specialists, and companies involved in this important work.”
Following detailed briefings by the CEO of Mongol Refinery state-owned LLC, Altantsetseg Dashdavaa, and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of India to Mongolia Atul Malhari Gotsurve, the Premier and Cabinet members expressed satisfaction with the steady and dynamic progress of the project. They reaffirmed the Government’s full support and commitment to ensuring the refinery’s completion and commissioning as scheduled in 2028.

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Mongolian Government and Rio Tinto Agree to Reduce Loan Interest Rate for Oyu Tolgoi Project www.montsame.mn

Negotiations between the Government working group, established by the order of the Prime Minister of Mongolia, and the authorized working group of the Rio Tinto Group on reducing the shareholders’ loan interest rate for the Oyu Tolgoi project successfully concluded their second day on October 31, 2025.
As a result of the talks, the parties reached an agreement to lower the loan interest rate, and a protocol confirming this was signed by Javkhlan Bold, Minister of Finance, who heads the negotiation, and Tim Wilcox, Managing Director of Business Development at the Rio Tinto Group.
Following this, the initial round of negotiations has been temporarily adjourned. The Rio Tinto side will review and consider the additional information and proposals presented by the Mongolian side, and the negotiations are scheduled to resume in November.

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Jade Gas (ASX.JGH) Appoints Industry Veteran Chris Newport as Managing Director www.newshub.medianet.com.au

Jade Gas Holdings Limited (ASX:JGH) (Jade or the Company) is pleased to announce it has appointed Chris Newport as its Managing Director, effective November 10, 2025.
Mr Newport is a prominent oil and gas senior executive having worked over 40 years in business development and executive roles including at BHP Petroleum, Santos, Gulf Indonesia, Amerada Hess, NuEnergy Gas and others. Most recently, Chris has recently been advising on strategic and commercial development for a private Coal Bed Methane (CBM) company in Mongolia. Chris is a global energy developer with experience in commercializing and developing oil and gas resources, building frontier energy markets and securing financial commitment to investment in infrastructure and field developments.
Chris has had significant exposure to coal bed methane since 1987 in the Sydney Basin, the Bowen Surat Basin (Moura and GLNG) and in Sumatra, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania. During his career Chris has also had experience dealing and negotiating with governments, super majors and junior explorers alike and worked with many and varied cultures and fiscal systems. His career deal experience includes involvement in over $40b of gas market transactions, covering CBM, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), joint venture and
processing agreements, pipeline and gas-to-power projects.
This experience is key in the next stage of Jade Gas’s development for the TTCBM project. The Company believes he is well credentialed to drive Jade towards revenue pathways and to build strong technical and commercial foundations for future business growth that will ultimately establish the TTCBM Project into a regionally significant energy project.
Chris is a Petroleum Economist, Chartered Accountant, long standing member of the Association of International Energy Negotiators and holds a Bachelors Degree in Economics from the University of Adelaide.
With the appointment of Chris as Managing Director, he will replace Mr Chris Whiteman who had been Interim CEO. The Company thanks Mr Whiteman during his interim role as CEO. Jade would also like to advise that board member Ms. Uyanga Munkhkhuyag is currently on maternity leave.
The key terms of Mr Newport’s appointment are set out in Appendix A of the ASX release.
Commenting on the appointment, Jade Executive Director, Joe Burke, said:
“The Board is extremely pleased to make this important appointment for the Company. We are confident that Chris’s extensive experience of commercialising energy projects in the Asian region will position the Company to execute on the many commercial options in front of us. The Board looks forward to working with Chris as we execute on our strategy and deliver long-term value for shareholders.”
Incoming Managing Director, Chris Newport, added:
“It’s an honour to be joining Jade Gas at this critical and most exciting time in the development of the Company. I’ve lived and worked extensively throughout Asia in my career with a focus on the CBM industry. I see Jades TTCBM project as the most compelling opportunity I have come across. The gas resource is defined and significant, continuous gas flow has been established, and we are on the doorstep of one of the world’s largest and fastest growing gas markets. I am looking forward to working with the team at Jade that has done such an impressive job so far in taking this project from exploration to pre-development phase in such a short time.”

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102-km Dam Canal to Be Expanded with Financing from World Bank www.montsame.mn

The Ulaanbaatar City Governor’s Office, in cooperation with the World Bank, plans to implement the project “Ulaanbaatar Flood Risk Reduction and Sewer Rehabilitation Project.”
Under the project, 102 kilometers of flood protection dams, canals, and engineering structures will be expanded across 17 locations, and 50 kilometers of sewer pipelines and manholes will be relined. The initiative aims to improve the quality and resilience of the city’s sanitation infrastructure, reduce flood risks caused by climate change, and ensure a safe and healthy living environment for residents.
A grant agreement worth USD 1.3 million from the World Bank was approved for the project’s feasibility study and detailed design, and a contract for implementation was signed on October 29, 2025.

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Mongolia and UK Conduct Joint Study on Cybersecurity Risks www.montsame.mn

The Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation, and Communications, in cooperation with the Government of the United Kingdom, conducted a study from October 27 to 31 to assess Mongolia’s cybersecurity risks.
According to the Ministry, the joint study, carried out by a Mongolian technical team and cybersecurity experts from the UK Government, aims to implement the National Cybersecurity Strategy approved by a Government resolution, identify the level of cybersecurity risks, and plan measures to reduce those risks.
Using the methodology and questionnaire developed by the UK Government for cybersecurity risk assessment, British experts will train the Mongolian team in identifying risks and preparing cybersecurity risk reports at the organizational, sectoral, and national levels. The Mongolian team is responsible for collecting the necessary data and preparing the report.
The study is expected to help the Government and organizations with critical information infrastructure identify cyber risks, make evidence-based decisions on resource allocation, investment, and policy planning, and strengthen prevention and response measures against potential threats. It will also raise awareness and understanding of risk identification and response.
On October 28, 2025, a training session was held for representatives of critical information infrastructure and public and private sector organizations to explain how to identify, assess, and quantify the impact of cyber risks and to emphasize the importance of the study.
More than 40 public and private organizations with critical information infrastructure are participating in the study to assess Mongolia’s national cybersecurity risks.

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Russia, Mongolia To Upgrade Road & Rail Corridors and Increase Freight Transit www.russiaspivottoasia.com

Russia and Mongolia are planning to update the plans to develop railway and roadway transport corridors by the end of the year, Russia’s Deputy Transport Minister, Alexei Shilo, has said.
Shilo was meeting with Batmunkh Nasantogtokh, the State Secretary of the Mongolian Ministry of Roads and Transport. They formalized the agreements at this week’s meeting of the transport working group of the Russia-Mongolia intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, scientific, and technical cooperation and discussed developing the Russia-Mongolia-China economic corridor.
That is intended to cater for growing volumes of freight transport between the countries and further develop Mongolia’s transit potential, as well as upgrade and develop the Ulaanbaatar Railway (UBTZ), which is operated as a Mongolian and Russian state joint venture. This railway was established in 1949 as a joint venture between the Mongolian People’s Republic and the Soviet Union and is now jointly owned by the Mongolian and Russian governments, with each having a 50% stake. Russian Railways holds the Russian equity.
During the meeting of the intergovernmental commission, Shilo highlighted the need to approve the 2026-2030 technical upgrade of the Ulan-Ude Railway in order to develop the central railway line of the Russia-Mongolia-China economic corridor. This is required to enable the route to handle 50 million tonnes of freight by 2030.
The participants also discussed highway connections between Russia and Mongolia, with Shilo adding, “The importance of developing cross-border highways, including the AH3 and AH4 routes of the Asian Highway Network was discussed. We agreed by the end of November this year to exchange highway development plans for the Asian Highway Network.”

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Mongolia Upgraded To 'BB-' On Sustained Fiscal Consolidation And Strong Growth; Outlook Stable www.spglobal.com

On Oct. 30, 2025, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Mongolia to 'BB-' from 'B+'. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable.
At the same time, we affirmed our 'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings.
We also revised the transfer and convertibility assessment to 'BB' from 'BB-'.
Outlook
The stable outlook on the long-term sovereign rating reflects our view that Mongolia will sustain robust economic expansion and keep fiscal deficits low over the next 12-24 months. We expect broad policy continuity despite recent domestic political developments.
Downside scenario
We could lower the ratings if Mongolia's economic growth trajectory is derailed, bringing economic growth down to unexceptional levels when compared with economies at similar levels of average income.
The ratings would also come under pressure if Mongolia's fiscal policy anchors weaken, resulting in persistently wider deficits and an increase in net general government debt to more than 30% of GDP.
Upside scenario
We could raise the ratings on Mongolia if its external settings and fiscal position improve further, such that narrow net external debt declines to less than 50% of current account receipts and the average annual change in net general government debt falls below 1% of GDP on a structural basis. This scenario would be underpinned by continued strong growth in the mining sector and a political commitment to fiscal consolidation.
We could also raise the ratings if Mongolia materially improves its institutional settings, especially the predictability of policymaking.
Rationale
We upgraded Mongolia to reflect its improving debt metrics. Government revenue has soared over the past three years on the back of exuberant mining activity. The government ran three consecutive years of budget surpluses, enabling it to almost halve the ratio of net general government debt to GDP and significantly lower interest-servicing costs.
Mongolia has sustained robust growth in recent years, spurred by strong commodities exports. Though coal prices have weakened of late, this was offset by increased production of copper concentrate and a rebound in the agriculture sector. We continue to view Mongolia's long-term growth prospects to be stronger than that of sovereign peers with similar income levels.
Domestic politics in Mongolia are in a state of flux since the prime minister's resignation in June 2025 and the subsequent occurrences of discord within the ruling Mongolia People's Party (MPP). However, we expect policy continuity because politicians across factions are in broad consensus on the fiscal consolidation path and the economic agenda.
Our ratings on Mongolia reflect the country's elevated external imbalances and evolving institutional settings. Mongolia also faces significant vulnerabilities stemming from its concentrated economic base. We weigh these factors against the country's strong growth prospects and the government's recent record of fiscal discipline. Mongolia's steady access to concessional funding from multilateral and bilateral partners also helps to keep financing costs down.
Institutional and economic profile: Mining sector to support growth; evolving political situation unlikely to affect credit metrics
We expect Mongolia's economy to sustain strong growth in 2025, despite lower coal exports.
Economic growth over the next two to three years is likely to outpace sovereign peers' and will continue to be propelled by strong exports and foreign direct investments in mining.
We believe the ongoing political turbulence will not lead to significant changes in policymaking.
We forecast Mongolia's real GDP will increase 5.5% this year, after growth of 5.1% in 2024. The growth momentum continued in the first half of 2025, with the economy expanding by 5.7%, supported by continued coal exports, a recovering agriculture sector, and steeply rising copper exports. Mongolia's copper exports benefitted from higher production in the underground site of Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest copper mines. Additionally, household consumption continued to expand with a modest rise in wages. That, combined with continued government spending, should sustain the economic expansion.
China's demand for coal from Mongolia has risen. China has in recent years increasingly turned to Mongolia for high-quality coking coal used in steel production, reflecting geopolitical tensions. Mongolia's export volume of coal reached all-time highs of more than 80 million tons in 2023 and 2024, more than double the level in prior years.
However, the momentum in coal exports has slowed this year, with 58.4 million tons of coal exported in the first nine months; coal prices have also moderated since the start of 2025. However, the weakness in coal is alleviated by a substantial 45% year-on-year increase in production of copper concentrate to 1.45 million tons in the eight months, amid steady copper prices. Agriculture and livestock, which underperformed in the past two years due to severe winters, are also recovering and should help offset the weakness in coal exports.
Mongolia has a promising economic outlook, in our view. We forecast real GDP growth will average about 5.5% annually through 2028, on the back of sustained investments in the Tavan Tolgoi and Oyu Tolgoi mining projects. Simplified customs clearance at the China-Mongolia border has also eased trucking bottlenecks. The government's progress in developing new railway lines and completion of transshipping facilities will also significantly increase carrying capacity.
Nevertheless, downside risks to growth remain. Mongolia's economy is highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks due to its heavy dependence on mineral exports to China. This was evident when restrictions at the Chinese border prevented Mongolia from fully capitalizing on high commodity prices in 2022. Acute shifts in commodity cycles could also heighten volatility in economic and fiscal outcomes.
Institutional and governance weaknesses remain rating limitations. Youth-led protests in May 2025 over alleged corruption resulted in the ousting of Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene. On Oct. 17, the newly appointed Prime Minister Gombojavy Zandanshatar was dismissed by Parliament over procedural issues in the appointment of a cabinet minister. The constitutional court has since reversed the decision and reinstated Zandanshatar as prime minister.
We continue to monitor closely these evolving events. Our base case remains that the government's economic policies and fiscal stance will be unchanged regardless of the potential shuffling in political appointments in the coming weeks. This is because key agendas such as fiscal prudence, promoting foreign investments, and prioritizing infrastructure continue to have wide support across the political spectrum.
Flexibility and performance profile: Commodity boom has improved fiscal settings and allowed rapid deleveraging; external position has also benefitted but remains weak
Mongolia's fiscal position has improved materially in recent years, and the government will likely maintain modest deficits to support the economy.
External indebtedness relative to current account receipts has declined, but external metrics remain weak.
The sovereign's steady access to concessional funding mitigates some credit risks associated with elevated levels of external indebtedness.
After consecutive years of fiscal surpluses over 2022 to 2024, Mongolia is likely to have a small general government deficit this year as declining exports weigh on revenue. Over the next two to three years, we envisage execution capacity will catch up to the larger revenue base. Therefore, we project modest deficits throughout our forecast horizon. Even so, we expect public debt ratios to improve as net general government debt averages 28% of GDP through to 2028 (and on a declining trend) on the back of strong economic expansion and moderate increases in spending.
Mongolia's government receipts increased on average by more than 30% annually over the past three years as windfall profits from the minerals sector filled fiscal coffers through royalties, dividends, and corporate taxes. Our forecast for a deficit of 0.5% of GDP this year is in line with the supplementary budget passed in August 2025. The initial budget projected a balanced position of 0% of GDP. The amended budget expects dampening of government revenues by Mongolia tugrik (MNT) 3.3 trillion on weaker coal prices. To counter the revenue shortfall, the government is reducing nonessential spending and has halted financing for uncontracted projects after May 2025. The estimated savings from these measures is about MNT2 trillion (2% of GDP).
We expect Mongolia to record modest fiscal deficits averaging 1.3% of GDP over 2026-2028. Government spending will remain high as authorities continue to support the economy through social benefit and infrastructure projects. That said, we believe deficits will be contained because an amendment to the Fiscal Stabilization Law will anchor prudence. In addition to the existing rule of structural deficits of not more than 2% of GDP, the amendment mandates a "base" fiscal surplus of at least 2% of GDP from 2025. This is after including net new borrowings; the surpluses can only be used to pay down government debt.
High nominal GDP growth alongside fiscal consolidation has enabled Mongolia to significantly reduce its debt burden. The ratio of net general government debt to GDP declined by 35 percentage points to 32% of GDP in 2024, from the 2020 level. We forecast this ratio will decline further to 31.2% in 2025 and stay less than 30% from next year onward. Robust revenue growth has also enabled Mongolia to reduce its debt-servicing cost, as measured by the ratio of government interest payment to revenue. This has gone below 5% since 2022 and we expect it to stay so. A substantial concessional component caps Mongolia's borrowing costs.
Nevertheless, Mongolia's fiscal outcomes can be volatile, driven by the vagaries of commodity cycles. The government's revenue base is highly dependent on the mining sector. Debt stock dynamics can, at times, be disconnected from budget performance because the bulk of government debt is denominated in foreign currencies. For example, in 2022, despite a general government surplus of 0.7% of GDP, net government debt increased by 10% of GDP because of a sharp depreciation of the tugrik.
Mongolia's financial and public enterprise sectors pose limited contingent liabilities for the government, in our opinion. This is due to the modest size of the financial sector. That said, the country's banks remain vulnerable to risks associated with an under-developed and primarily commodity-based economy.
We also observe continued weaknesses in Mongolia's regulatory framework, transparency, and disclosures. Our Bank Industry Credit Risk Assessment for Mongolia is '9' (with '1' being the highest assessment and '10' being the lowest).
Our key measure of external assessment, narrow net external debt to current account receipts, has been declining for Mongolia due to high growth in the denominator. From 184% in 2020, we estimate the ratio decreased to 81% in 2025. However, Mongolia has a much higher net liability position compared with its narrow net external debt. This is due to the country's large inflows of foreign direct investments into mining projects. We expect this ratio to remain above 250% over the next two years.
We forecast Mongolia's current account deficit will stay at 8%-10% of GDP over the next two to three years. The current account had gone into a small surplus in 2023, the first in 15 years, owing to record coal exports. But the current account reversed to a deficit last year to about 10% of GDP. Trade flows have continued so far in 2025. Mongolia's current account had a deficit of more than US$1.8 billion (7.7% of GDP) as of end-August, fueled by an increase in capital imports and slower merchandise exports on weaker coal prices. High import intensity will persist, coupled with normalization of coal demand from China and lower commodity prices.
Mongolia's external liquidity position, as measured by its gross external financing needs (current account payments plus short-term external debt), will also likely stay at more than 100% of current account receipts plus usable reserves, indicating elevated liquidity pressures. Risks associated with Mongolia's high external indebtedness and financing needs are partially mitigated by strong donor and lending support from both bilateral and multilateral partners.
Inflation in Mongolia rose in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 9% year on year in September. This is after a dip to 6.8% in 2024, from double digits in the years before. Mongolia's central bank halted in 2024 the monetary easing of 300 basis points in total. It has since hiked rates by 200 basis points in March 2025 to address rising prices.
Mongolia's central bank had previously executed quasi-fiscal spending programs on behalf of the government. Therefore, we deem the bank's independence as limited. Although the central bank has strengthened governance through reforms since 2016, its record of operational independence remains short.

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Government of Mongolia Launches Negotiations with Rio Tinto www.montsame.mn

The Government of Mongolia has launched negotiations today to reduce the interest rate on the Oyu Tolgoi project loan.
Representing the Government in the talks are Minister of Finance Javkhlan Bold and Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Damdinnyam Gankhuyag, joined by executives from “Erdenes Mongol” LLC and “Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi” LLC. They are holding discussions with representatives of the “Rio Tinto” Group.
During the negotiations, the Government is raising the following key issues:
• Increase Mongolia’s share of benefits from Oyu Tolgoi to over 50 percent;
• Reduce the shareholder loan interest rate;
• Review the current practice of discussing the loan interest rate only once every seven years;
• Reconsider the practice of charging compound interest.
Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Damdinnyam highlighted the significance of the talks, saying, “Reducing the Oyu Tolgoi loan interest rate will increase Mongolia’s returns. In other words, it will enable us to receive dividends earlier. This means that funds will flow into the National Wealth Fund sooner and directly benefit the people. Our team is working to ensure a decision that is favorable to the Mongolian people.”

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