London CNN Business — Global growth will slow further in the coming year but the world will likely avoid a recession thanks to Asia’s biggest economies.

Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.1% this year, and by just 2.2% in 2023, according to the latest forecast from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Although the OECD is not predicting a recession, its forecast is more pessimistic than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which said last month that it expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% this year and 2.7% next year.

The “fragile prospects” for the global economy are a direct result of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has sparked an energy crisis that has spurred inflation worldwide, the OECD said in a statement on Tuesday.

'The worst is yet to come': IMF issues stark recession warning

“Persistent inflation, high energy prices, weak real household income growth, falling confidence and tighter financial conditions are all expected to curtail growth,” it added. If energy prices rise further or energy supply is disrupted, growth could be even weaker than expected.

Growth next year is “strongly dependent” on major Asian economies, which will account for close to three quarters of the expansion in global GDP, with the United States and Europe “decelerating sharply,” the OECD said.

India is projected to have the world’s second highest growth rates, after Saudi Arabia, at 6.6% in 2022, followed by 5.7% in 2023. China’s economy is predicted to grow by 3.3% this year, followed by 4.6% in 2023.

By contrast, the United States is expected to grow by just 1.8% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023. Growth across the 19 EU countries that use the euro is also expected to decline steeply over the next two years, from 3.3% in 2022, to 0.5% in 2023.

That the European and American economies are growing at all is partly because of government spending on energy subsidies and policies to boost investment such as NextGeneration EU and the Inflation Reduction Act, OECD Secretary General Matthias Cormann told reporters on Tuesday.

Savings accumulated by households and businesses during the initial phase of the pandemic will also help to support spending, he added.

“An end to the war and a just peace for Ukraine would be the most impactful way to improve the global economic outlook right now,” Cormann said.

The OECD expects inflation to remain above 9% this year among advanced economies. It’s then forecast to fall back to 6.6% in 2023, slightly above levels forecast by the IMF.

Major central banks aim for inflation near 2%, and have been hiking interest rates in a bid to limit price rises. But the campaign is also boosting risks to the economy by increasing debt servicing costs for households, businesses and governments.

“Higher interest rates, while necessary to moderate inflation, will increase financial challenges for both households and corporate borrowers,” the OECD said.

“Low-income countries will remain particularly vulnerable to high food and energy prices, while tighter global financial conditions may raise the risk of further debt distress,” it added.

World Bank President David Malpass told CNN recently that the organization is “worrying about a world recession in 2023,” but that the United States is “a little stronger than other economies.”

— Julia Horowitz contributed to this report.

President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khurelsuh will pay a state visit to China from November 27 to 28, which reflects the high-level development of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday, expressing China's hope to work with Mongolia to take the visit as an opportunity to set a good example of neighborly relations and further deepen mutual trust and practical cooperation.

Hua Chunying, spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry, announced on Tuesday that at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khurelsuh will visit China.

Zhao Lijian, another spokesperson at the ministry, said at the regular press conference later on Tuesday that during the visit, Xi will hold formal talks with Khurelsuh. The two presidents will jointly witness the signing of cooperation documents. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Chairman Li Zhanshu of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will also meet with Khurelsuh, according to Zhao.

The leaders of the two countries will have an in-depth exchange of views on bilateral relations and international and regional issues of mutual interest, and jointly chart the future course of the growth of China-Mongolia relations, Zhao said.

The spokesperson noted that in 2018, Khurelsuh paid an official visit to China as Mongolian Prime Minister. In June 2021, Khurelsuh was elected president. The upcoming visit will be his first to China as Mongolian president, which will carry forward the friendship and the fine tradition of close high-level exchanges between the two countries and shows the excellent growth of China-Mongolia comprehensive strategic partnership.

China looks forward to working with Mongolia to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen our strategic mutual trust and practical cooperation and set an example in neighborly relations to elevate China-Mongolia relations to a new height, Zhao said.

Among the 14 countries which have land borders with China, China-Mongolia relations have remained stable, friendly and mutually beneficial for a long time, Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

In July 2021, Xi had a phone conversation with Khurelsuh, calling on both countries to enrich the connotation of their comprehensive strategic partnership, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

During the visit of the Mongolian leader, the high-level exchanges are likely to cover international hot-button issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the joint response to the complicated geographical security and politics, as well as regional and international governance, Da said.

In the context of regional tensions, a further deepening of China-Mongolia relations will undoubtedly inject certainty to the region, Da said.

Mongolia and China share a border of more than 4,700 kilometers, and both countries are strategic partners and friendly neighbors, exemplified by the fact that China has been Mongolia's largest source of investment and biggest trading partner for 18 consecutive years, media reports said.

The upcoming visit is expected to improve bilateral cooperation in food security and energy security, Da noted.

Given that China and Mongolia enjoy geographical support and have the basis and conditions for long-term cooperation, in the future, there will be broader space to strengthen cooperation in agriculture, animal husbandry and energy, the expert predicted.

In September, the heads of China, Mongolia and Russia extended the Outline of the Development Plan on Establishing the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor by five years in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, unleashing greater potential for regional prosperity while upgrading Mongolia's role as a transit hub.

As an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the economic corridor aims to further strengthen trilateral cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia by increasing trilateral trade volume, enhancing product competitiveness, strengthening transport facilitation and developing infrastructure through cooperation projects.

Considering China's market, capital and technology are highly complementary to Mongolia's resource enrichment advantages, and the two sides have much space for cooperation, experts believe that taking this state visit as an opportunity, the two countries will expand cooperation in trade, investment, finance, minerals and energy, connectivity, infrastructure, digital economy and green development, and push forward bilateral cooperation to a new high.

China looks forward to taking the upcoming visit of Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh as an opportunity to deepen strategic mutual trust and practical cooperation with Mongolia, according to a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Khurelsukh will pay a state visit to China from Nov. 27 to 28, it was announced on Tuesday.

"China looks forward to working with Mongolia to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen our strategic mutual trust and practical cooperation and set an example in neighborly relations to elevate China-Mongolia relations to a new height," said Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson, at a press briefing.

During the visit, the two presidents will hold formal talks, and jointly witness the signing of cooperation documents, Zhao said.

Premier Li Keqiang, and Li Zhanshu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, will meet with President Khurelsukh respectively, he said.

Leaders of the two countries will have an in-depth exchange of views on bilateral relations and international and regional issues of mutual interest, and jointly chart the future course of the growth of China-Mongolia relations, he said.

The upcoming visit will be Khurelsukh's first visit to China as Mongolian President, which will carry forward the friendship and the fine tradition of close high-level exchanges between the two countries, and shows the excellent growth of the China-Mongolia comprehensive strategic partnership, according to Zhao.

Khurelsukh paid an official visit to China as Mongolian Prime Minister in 2018.

Mongolia sends 86% of its exports to China, with coal accounting for more than half of that total, and it is upgrading its infrastructure in the hopes of selling even more to its southern neighbor.

And Mongolia is keen to chip in, shipping 19 million metric tons of coal to China so far this year, according to the National Statistical Office, already exceeding 2021’s 16 million total.

Government officials want Mongolia to surpass the record 37 million metric tons sent in 2019 and to keep supplying China with a steady stream of coal well into the next decade.

Soaring prices for coal also mean there is little incentive for Ulaanbaatar to slow down. The value of Mongolia’s coal exports jumped to USd 4.5 billion in the first nine months of 2022, almost triple what they were over the same period last year.

Ulaanbaatar finished a 233-kilometer rail line from the Tavan Tolgoi mine to the Gashuun Sukhait border in September, a project that took 14 years to complete.

This new line will allow Mongolia to push coal exports to 70 million metric tons annually, possibly by 2025.

202 new COVID-19 cases were recorded in Mongolia in a day.

82 of them were contacts in Ulaanbaatar, and 120 were registered in the regions. No imported cases were found.

The death toll from coronavirus remained 2,134.

The copper price bounced on Tuesday after four sessions of losses as the dollar weakened.

Copper for delivery in December rose 2.5% on the Comex market in New York, touching $3.66 per pound ($8,052 per tonne).

“The dollar is soft, yields are lower and that’s supporting the general level of risk appetite in the market,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

Copper retreated in recent days driven by worries about possible pandemic-related shutdowns in China.

China’s capital Beijing shut parks and museums on Tuesday and imposed new testing requirements to enter public places such as malls and hotels as covid-19 cases climbed.

“The market seems to be taking the view that the Chinese outbreak is a temporary one, but one that could last longer than expected, so that’s keeping a lid on any exuberance,” Hansen added.

“A surge in cases during winter will likely test the resolve of officials. Fears of supply disruptions also eased after BHP averted a strike at its Escondida copper mine in Chile,” ANZ Research said in a note.

On the supply side, BHP said on Monday it reached an agreement with a worker’s union to avoid a strike planned at Escondida – the world’s largest copper mine.

(With files from Reuters)

The United Nations Resident Coordinator Office, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Ministry of Economy and Development of Mongolia jointly organized the “Socio-Economic Impact of Global Crises in Mongolia” seminar at Novotel Hotel on November 21, 2022.

It was raised during the seminar that the global shocks to commodity prices, food, energy, and financial markets are making Mongolians more vulnerable, especially at a time when the country is all set to mobilize its New Revival Policy.

The geopolitical issue involving Russia and Ukraine, according to the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Mongolia, Tapan Mishra, has a severe impact on Mongolia's economy by driving up the cost of food and consumer products. The availability of goods such as bread, vegetable oil, and gas has an impact on vulnerable populations, particularly single women and families with three or more children, in addition to price increases

The proposed analysis complements this analysis by providing comprehensive information on Small and medium-sized enterprises, households, and livelihoods of vulnerable populations. The findings and recommendations aim to feed into the policy interventions by the Government of Mongolia for developing an integrated strategic response.

Sodontogos Erdenetsogt was appointed as the Director-General of MONTSAME News Agency according to the order of the Chief of the Office of the President.

E. Sodontogos holds Bachelor’s degrees from the Foreign Language University (University of Humanities) in English/Russian translation and Banking and Loan Economics from the Institute of Finance and Economics respectively. She completed her Master’s Degree at the School of Pan-Pacific International Studies of Kyung Hee University in the Republic of Korea, specializing in International Political Economy.

She started her career as a translator at the United Nations Populations Fund and the United States Agency for International Development. She served as an attaché at the Department of Multilateral Cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and an Expert at the National Security Council of Mongolia. At the Office of the President of Mongolia, she led the Office of the Advisors to the President of Mongolia with the key function of organizing and managing the day-to-day work of presidential policy advisors from 2009. Prior to her selection and appointment as the CEO of MCA-Mongolia, she led the National Secretariat for the Development of the Second Compact Agreement from 2015-2019. She has 30 years of experience in the international development and cooperation field.

E. Sodontogos is one of the founding members of the “Discover Mongolia” International Mining Investors Forum. She co-founded the “Mongolian Mining Journal” magazine, the first Mongolian bilingual trade journal. Upon invitation by the Mongolian National Broadcaster, she hosted a talk show in English, “Face to Face.”

QatarEnergy has signed a 27-year deal to supply China’s Sinopec with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the longest such agreement to date, as volatility drives buyers to seek long-term supplies.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, competition for LNG has become intense, with Europe, in particular, needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40 percent of the continent’s imports.

European companies looking to buy LNG needed to look at how Asian buyers were approaching their own negotiations and were willing to lock into long-term deals, QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi told the Reuters news agency shortly before signing the Sinopec deal.

“Today is an important milestone for the first sales and purchase agreement (SPA) for North Field East project, it is 4 million tonnes for 27 years to Sinopec of China,” al-Kaabi said.

“It signifies long-term deals are here and important for both seller and buyer,” he said in an interview in Doha, adding that the deal was the LNG sector’s largest single sales and purchase agreement on record.

The North Field is part of the world’s biggest gas field that Qatar shares with Iran, which calls its share South Pars.

QatarEnergy earlier this year signed five deals for North Field East (NFE), the first and larger of the two-phase North Field expansion plan, which includes six LNG trains that will ramp up Qatar’s liquefaction capacity to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027 from 77 million.

It later signed contracts with three partners for North Field South (NFS), the second phase of the expansion.

Monday’s deal, confirmed by Sinopec, is the first supply deal to be announced for NFE.

“This takes our relationship to new heights as we have an SPA that will last into the 2050s,” al-Kaabi said.

“It sends a message that a lot of Asian buyers are actually approaching us to have a long-term deal because they see the volumes of gas that are coming in the future are less and less.”

Qatar is already the world’s top LNG exporter, and its North Field expansion project will boost that position and help guarantee long-term supplies of gas to Europe as the continent seeks alternatives to Russian flows.

“The recent volatility has driven buyers to understand the importance of having long-term supply that is fixed and that’s reasonably priced for the long term,” al-Kaabi said.

“There aren’t many projects that are taking final investment decision and the next two big chunks of LNG capacity that are coming into the market is Golden Pass LNG that we partnered with ExxonMobil in Texas and the next big chunk if you will is North Field East and North Field South.”

al-Kaabi also said there was more realisation globally that gas should be an essential part of any energy transition.

“The wind doesn’t blow all the time and the sun doesn’t shine all the time,” he said, adding that Qatari LNG is “a solution that has the least carbon intensity”.

The pricing of the Sinopec deal will be similar to others in the past that were linked to crude oil.

“The way we’re pricing our deals with Asia is crude linked. We’ve done it this way in the past and that’s the mechanism we’re using going forward.”

The deal was signed on an ex-ship basis, meaning QatarEnergy will provide the shipping and delivery of the LNG.

al-Kaabi added negotiations for an equity stake in the Gulf country’s expansion project were ongoing with several entities.

The supply contract is a key component for an integrated partnership in the NFE, Sinopec said in a statement, indicating it could be involved in stake negotiations.

QatarEnergy has maintained a 75 percent stake overall in the expansion and could give up to a 5 percent stake from its holding to some buyers, al-Kaabi said.

“Important buyers that want to commit for the long term on a substantial volume want to see part of the benefits of the upstream business … so I think it’s an important win if you will and it makes the partnership even more solid.”

SOURCE: REUTERS