Events
| Name | organizer | Where |
|---|---|---|
| MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Fitch Affirms Mongolia at 'B+'; Outlook Stable www.fitchratings.com
Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 01 Sep 2025: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Mongolia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Stable Outlook.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
Key Rating Drivers
Strengths and Weaknesses: Mongolia's ratings are supported by strong medium-term growth, modest government debt and high per capita income relative to 'B' category peers. The ratings are constrained by the country's high reliance on external funding and commodity exports to China, making it vulnerable to external shocks. High external debt, modest foreign-exchange reserves, and a record of procyclical economic policy add to external vulnerabilities. Mongolia scores well on World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGIs) relative to 'B' category peers but has suffered from policy uncertainty.
Resilient Growth: We forecast real GDP growth will pick up to 5.7% in 2025, from 5% in 2024, driven by an agricultural recovery after two harsh winters. Coal exports have fallen by 40% in the first seven months of 2025 due to a price shock, but strong copper exports have largely offset the impact. We expect growth to remain robust at 5.3% in 2026 and 2027, underpinned by continued investment in the mining sector and solid non-mining activity. However, a potential shift in Chinese demand for Mongolia's mining exports remains a key downside risk.
Mining and Infrastructure-Driven Expansion: Major mining and infrastructure projects continue to bolster medium-term growth. The underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine continues to support gradual increases in production. Construction of a new cross-border railway linking Mongolia to China's ports began in June 2025 and we expect it to boost transportation capacity by 30 million tonnes annually upon completion in 2027.
Moderate Fiscal Deficits: Fitch projects a fiscal deficit of 1.8% of GDP in 2025, following a 1.3% surplus in 2024. The amended 2025 budget, passed in August, cut current and capital expenditure by MNT1.3 trillion and MNT500 billion, respectively, in response to a MNT3.3 trillion (about 3.5% of GDP) revenue shortfall. The revised budget projects a structural balance of 1.5% of GDP deficit, which excludes allocations to the Fiscal Stabilisation Fund (FSF) and the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), implying an overall surplus of 1.1% of GDP. However, revenue assumptions may be difficult to meet, with collections at only 51% of the revised target through July.
Expansionary Pro-Cyclical Policy: We expect the non-mineral primary fiscal deficit to widen to 15% of non-mining gross value added in 2025 and 2026, from 12.9% in 2024. Fiscal rules have been strengthened in recent years, but the implementation record is still short, implying uncertainty about enforcement during external shocks. Some rules, such as the current expenditure cap at 30% of GDP, are inherently pro-cyclical and allow for higher spending during periods of strong economic growth. Government spending reached a record 38.2% of GDP in 2024 amid historically strong revenue from the commodity boom.
Stable Debt; Contained Maturities: Fitch projects government debt to decline to below 40% of GDP in the medium term, from 41.8% of GDP at end-2024, following sharp declines since the pandemic. However, a substantial share of public debt is denominated in foreign exchange, highlighting exchange-rate risk. The government partially refinanced external debt securities maturing in 2026 and 2027 earlier this year, further smoothing the maturity profile. The government holds deposits exceeding 10% of GDP, including about 6% of GDP in the SWF and 2% of GDP in the FSF, mostly with the central bank and partly reflected in reserves.
Elevated Inflationary Pressure: Headline inflation accelerated to 9.6% in February 2025 before easing slightly in recent months. Fitch forecasts inflation to average 8.5% in 2025-2026, driven by strong domestic demand, higher utility tariffs and rapid credit growth, which is above the Bank of Mongolia's (BoM) 4%-8% target. The BoM raised its policy rate by 2 percentage points to 12% in March 2025 after multiple cuts in 2024 and has tightened banks' reserve requirement three times since 4Q24.
Persistent External Vulnerabilities: Fitch expects the current account deficit to widen to 12% of GDP in 2025, from 10.5% in 2024, and to remain elevated over the medium term. The deficit is largely financed by foreign direct investments, but structurally large service and primary income deficits constrain reserve accumulation from commodity exports. Gross FX reserves stood at USD5.4 billion as of July 2025 (just over three months of external payments), which is low given Mongolia's narrow economic base. Net foreign assets rose to USD4 billion after partial repayment of swap liabilities to the People's Bank of China.
Net external debt, at about 120% of GDP at end-2024, is nearly 6x the 'B' median, although over 30% of this is FDI, and more than 20% are concessional loans, both of which we expect to remain stable sources of funding. Mongolia is among the world's most commodity-dependent sovereigns, with mineral exports (almost entirely to China) accounting for 90% of external receipts and 30% of government revenue.
ESG - Governance: Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights and '5' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the WBGIs have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Mongolia has a medium WBGI ranking at the 47th percentile.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
- External Finances: Materialisation of significant external stress, potentially undermining external financing flows and leading to a decline in foreign reserves, for example, as a result of a commodity shock amid expansionary domestic economic policies.
- Public Finances: Significant increase in the government debt/GDP ratio, for example, from sustained budget deficits or weaker medium-term growth prospects.
- Structural Features: Political instability or major policy shifts sufficient to significantly disrupt strategic mining projects or FDI inflows.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
- External Finances: Reduction in external financing risks, for example, through significant accumulation of foreign-currency reserves and a fall in net external debt, accompanied by prudent external debt management.
- Public Finances: Implementation of prudent fiscal policies, which reduce pro-cyclicality and are consistent with reductions in the government debt/GDP ratio and the build-up of fiscal buffers.
- Macroeconomic and Structural: Sustained strong economic growth without the emergence of imbalances, supported by a business environment conducive to robust FDI inflows.
Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Mongolia a score equivalent to a rating of 'BB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.
Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM score to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows:
- External Finances: -1 notch, to reflect Mongolia's vulnerability to external shocks, given its dependence on commodity exports to China, particularly coal, as well its high external financing needs and debt in the context of modest FX reserves.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.
Country Ceiling
The Country Ceiling for Mongolia is 'BB-', one notch above the LT FC IDR. This reflects moderate constraints and incentives, relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange controls being imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private sector from converting local currency into foreign currency and transferring the proceeds to non-resident creditors to service debt payments.
Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of +1 notch above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a qualitative adjustment to the model result.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG Considerations
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights, as WBGIs have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the governance indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as WBGIs have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms, as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the WBGIs is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the governance indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights, as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for Mongolia, as for all sovereigns. As Mongolia has a record of more than 20 years without a restructuring of public debt and captured in our SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit http://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products....
Khurelsukh at SCO: ‘Mongolia Is Ready to Contribute to Regional Integration’ www.montsame.mn
President of Mongolia Khurelsukh Ukhnaa delivered a speech as an observer during the Heads of State Council’s expanded session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), held at the Tianjin Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center, People’s Republic of China.
Noting the significance of the SCO’s contributions to regional peace, security, and sustainable development, the president mentioned that Mongolia has been implementing its multi-pillar, independent foreign policy committed to peace.
Noting the importance of expanded cooperation in reducing climate change, desertification, and natural disaster risks, Khurelsukh introduced the “Billions of Trees” and “Food Supply and Security” national movements. It was also highlighted that preparations are underway for the 17th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) to be held in Ulaanbaatar in 2026.
President Khurelsukh noted that Mongolia, proposing the “Transit Mongolia” goal to become a regional hub for trade, investment, and transport logistics, is making active efforts to jointly implement significant road and rail transportation, energy, and tourism projects, as well as the natural gas pipeline project, with the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China.
Moreover, the president expressed readiness to contribute to regional integration through expanded, mutually beneficial cooperation with all SCO member countries.
Heads of State and Government from the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of India, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Türkiye, the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Republic of Armenia, the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, Malaysia, the Republic of Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Kingdom of Cambodia, the Republic of Turkmenistan, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Republic of Maldives, and the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal participated in this high-level council.
Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres, Secretary General of the SCO Nurlan Yermekbayev, as well as leaders of non-governmental and international organizations, discussed regional peace, security, and sustainable development.
The Heads of State Council’s expanded session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was successfully organized in Tianjin, People’s Republic of China.
Government Submits Draft 2026 Budget Totaling MNT 31.6 Trillion www.montsame.mn
Prime Minister of Mongolia Zandanshatar Gombojav submitted to Speaker of the Parliament Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve the 2026 Budget Framework Statement for the Unified Budget of Mongolia, the draft law on amending the Budget Projection Law for 2027-2028, and the draft law on the 2026 State Budget on September 1, 2025.
The balanced revenue of Mongolia’s 2026 Unified Budget is projected at MNT 31.6 trillion, while total expenditure is estimated at MNT 32.98 trillion. The budget balance is projected to have a deficit equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP. Prime Minister Zandanshatar stated that the 2026 budget policy aims to ensure macroeconomic fiscal stability, limit the growth of public expenditures, increase citizens’ income, and maintain and further improve the quality and accessibility of basic social services at the current level.
The tax reform package is being discussed through the D-Parliament electronic platform starting September 1, 2025. This legislative package is designed to ease the tax burden by MNT 3-4 trillion, benefiting individual taxpayers and business owners. The prime minister emphasized that the proposed budget seeks to limit state intervention while expanding and supporting the private sector.
For the first time, the government has developed its budget based on public input. A total of 186,000 citizen opinions were collected through the E-Mongolia digital platform, while 239,000 individuals participated in public discussions held both in-person and online, organized by general budget governors. Among the submissions, 8,800 were duplicates. This initiative marks a significant milestone in ensuring broad citizen participation in the national budget process.
During the voting process, citizens expressed a strong desire to improve the quality and accessibility of basic social services, ensure a safe and reliable living environment, reduce budget expenditures, and increase income by lowering the tax burden. Based on this public input, several specific measures have been incorporated into the budget, including:
1. Education Sector Goals and Teacher Compensation:
In connection with the government’s declaration of 2026 as the “Year of Education”, a national goal has been set to achieve 100 percent enrollment in education and to reduce class sizes to meet standard levels. As part of the medium-term plan extending to 2028, the government will construct 95 kindergartens and 108 schools with equipment and supplies provided in phases. To support this initiative, MNT 1 trillion will be invested in the education sector next year through a combination of state budget allocations and foreign loans. Additionally, variable expenses in the education sector have been increased by MNT 100 billion to implement a salary structure that accurately reflects teachers’ workloads starting in 2026.
2. Health Sector Budget Priorities:
A total of MNT 1.3 trillion will be invested in the health sector, funded through the state budget and foreign loans. Under this initiative, construction will begin on specialized hospitals for cancer treatment, cell and organ transplantation, and cardiovascular care. Additionally, hospital buildings in 17 aimags will be renovated with targeted improvements to intensive care and emergency services. These facilities will also be equipped with essential medical equipment to ensure timely and effective treatment.
3. Social Welfare and Insurance:
To support pensioners and insured individuals, an additional MNT 378 billion will be allocated to raise social insurance and welfare pensions by 6 percent.
4. VAT refund measure:
In an effort to reduce the tax burden on citizens, the government will increase the VAT refund by 50 percent for purchases not exceeding MNT 1 million.
5. Public-Private Financing in the Energy Sector:
The government has planned MNT 3.9 trillion for investment in the energy sector next year, sourced from MNT 373.3 billion in state budget funds, MNT 351.8 billion in foreign loans, and MNT 150 billion from bonds. The majority of the funding, MNT 2.566 trillion, will be provided by private companies.
6. Fiscal Consolidation and Budget Discipline:
In 2026, economic activity is expected to slow due to falling prices of key export commodities, reduced domestic consumption, and weakened investment conditions. Fiscal space will remain constrained at the previous year’s level, 24.0 percent of GDP, and state institutions will operate under austerity measures. Current expenditures are to be reduced by MNT 641.7 billion compared to the projected performance in 2025. These savings will be achieved through reductions in institutional operating costs, subsidies, incentives, and interest rate discounts across sectors, along with temporary deferrals in benefit payments to public sector employees.
7. Sovereign Wealth and Asset Management:
Mongolia’s National Sovereign Wealth Fund’s savings have continued to grow, with the Future Heritage Fund currently holding MNT 4,706.1 billion and the Savings Fund holding 654.4 billion, bringing the total to 5,360.5 billion. In 2026, the Sovereign Wealth Fund is expected to increase by an additional MNT 2,956.1 billion. Alongside this growth, policies aligned with sound asset management principles and a stable housing finance mechanism for citizens will be introduced within the banking and financial system. Citizens will be able to view their Savings Fund balances through the E-Mongolia electronic platform.
Blacklist System Abolished: Mongolia Introduces Credit Scoring www.montsame.mn
Minister of Digital Development, Innovation, and Communications Batshugar Enkhbayar, together with relevant officials, announced that the banking blacklist system has been abolished, following the enforcement of amendments to the Law on Credit Information, which commenced on September 1, 2025.
At the press briefing, the minister emphasized that the old blacklist system has been replaced with a credit scoring system. Previously, individuals listed on the blacklist were barred from obtaining loans for six years, even after fully repaying their debts. Under the new framework, credit information providers must update their operations by September 15, 2025.
Citizens will now be assessed by credit scores, starting from a baseline of 511 points, which indicates financial solvency. The scores will range up to 999, with the national average estimated at 650. Higher scores will give borrowers access to lower interest rates and more favorable financial services. Negative repayment history will lower scores initially, but can improve over time.
Minister Batshugar stated, “In May 2025, I initiated the amendments to the Law on Credit Information, which were subsequently adopted by the Great State Khural. Accordingly, today, the Governor of the Bank of Mongolia issued an order nullifying the blacklists of both businesses and individuals in commercial banks. This order applies to all institutions that provide data to the credit information system. As a result, around 70,000 individuals and entities have been removed from the blacklist. With the new system, borrowers who repay their loans on time will be rewarded with higher scores, allowing them to access financial services under more favorable conditions.”
As of 2025, the credit information system includes data from 12 banks, 436 non-bank financial institutions, telecommunication companies, state funds under ministries and agencies, savings and credit cooperatives, and other entities. As of 2025, it holds records of 1.6 million individuals and 19,600 enterprises.
The Great State Khural received the draft amendments to the Law on Credit Information on December 24, 2024.
President of China Xi Jinping to visit Mongolia www.akipress.com
President of China Xi Jinping is expected to visit Mongolia soon, according to Minister of Road and Transport of Mongolia Delgersaikhan Borkhuu.
During the visit, the two nations plan to discuss connecting additional ports by rail, beyond the existing Gashuunsukhait-Gantsmod port.
Borkhuu emphasized that the construction of the Gashuunsukhait-Gantsmod railway had been stalled for 16 years, a mistake he said must not be repeated. The project is now moving forward, with a total cost of $235 million (₮848 billion). Of the 2,341 pillars required, 114 have already been installed, and the project is expected to be completed ahead of schedule.
Borkhuu noted that China is fully funding this specific project, with Mongolia not having spent any money on it so far. Once operational, the railway is projected to transport 20 million tons of coal from mines and another 10 million tons via a narrow-gauge railway annually.
Mongolia's central bank buys 7.7 tons of gold in 8 months www.xinhuanet.com
Mongolia's central bank said Monday it had purchased a total of 7.7 tons of gold from legal entities and individuals during the first eight months of this year.
As of August, the Bank of Mongolia's average gold purchase price stood at 387,259.12 Mongolian tugriks (about 107.7 U.S. dollars) per gram, the bank said in a statement.
Purchasing gold is one of key ways for the central bank to ensure the country's economic stability by consistently increasing foreign currency reserves.
According to the central bank, Mongolia's foreign exchange reserves totalled 5.38 billion U.S. dollars at the end of July 2025.
Mongolia Welcomes New Zealand Speaker Gerry Brownlee www.montsame.mn
At the invitation of Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve, Mongolia's Speaker of the Great State Khural (Parlaiment), a delegation led by the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the New Zealand Parliament, Gerry Brownlee, arrived in Mongolia for an official visit on August 31, 2025.
The delegation was welcomed by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Bulgantuya Khurelbaatar, Ambassador of Mongolia to New Zealand, Davaasuren Damdinsuren, the Chairman of the Mongolian-New Zealand Parliamentary Group, Erdenebold Sukhbaatar, and other government officials.
As part of the visit, Speaker Amarbayasgalan, and the Speaker Brownlee, are scheduled to discuss strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing institutional ties between the two countries.
This visit marks the first official visit to Mongolia by the speaker of New Zealand.
Mongolia and New Zealand established diplomatic relations in 1975, and 2025 commemorates the 50th anniversary of bilateral cooperation.
President of Mongolia U. Khurelsukh Received by President of China Xi Jinping www.president.mn
President of Mongolia Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, along with First Lady Bolortsetseg Luvsandorj, participated in the official welcoming ceremony for the Heads of State and their spouses from SCO member and observer countries, as well as countries participating in the “SCO+” framework and international organizations, on August 31, 2025.
Upon their arrival at the Tianjin Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center, the President of Mongolia and his spouse were warmly welcomed by President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China and First Lady Peng Liyuan. The leaders exchanged greetings and posed for commemorative photographs. Following this, the Heads of State of 10 participating countries and leaders of international organizations, along with their spouses, also posed for an official group photo.
After the official welcoming ceremony, President Khurelsukh and First Lady Bolortsetseg attended the official dinner hosted in honor of the foreign dignitaries.
On September 1, 2025, President Khurelsukh will deliver a speech at the expanded session of the 25th Heads of State Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
...
Tsogtgerel Odon Elected Chairman of Democratic Party www.montsame.mn
The National Policy Committee of the Democratic Party convened on August 31, 2025, to elect a new party chairman, resulting in the selection of Member of Parliament and head of the Democratic Party’s parliamentary group, Tsogtgerel Odon.
The election process was conducted in two rounds. In the first round, 314 members of the National Policy Committee cast their votes, with the following results: Tsogtgerel Odon received 196 votes, Purevdorj Bukhchuluun 82 votes, Bayarmaa Judag 33 votes, and Otgonbat Barkhuu three votes. As a result, Otgonbat was eliminated, and a second round was scheduled among the remaining three candidates. However, Purevdorj and Bayarmaa withdrew their candidacies, leading to the confirmation of Tsogtgerel as party chairman.
According to party procedure, this decision by the extraordinary session of the National Policy Committee will be presented to the party's Congress members for formal ratification.
In his remarks, Tsogtgerel stated, "The Democratic Party must be ambitious to win not just once, but repeatedly. The DP has many heroes."
Tsogtgerel Odon, the newly elected party leader, is the director and president of the Teso Corporation, and has previously served as an advisor to the Prime Minister and as the head of the Democratic Party's branch in Uvs Province. He has been elected to the Great State Khural (Parliament) twice and has led the Democratic Party's parliamentary group since 2022.
Family members of Japanese who died in Mongolia after WWII appeal for peace www.nhk.or.jp
Family members of Japanese nationals who died during detention in Mongolia after World War Two have stressed the importance of peace at a memorial event.
About 14,000 Imperial Japanese military personnel and Japanese civilians were detained by the former Soviet Union after the war and sent to Mongolia via Siberia. About 1,700 of them are believed to have died from cold, hunger, hard labor and other causes.
The event was held on Sunday in Chiba City, near Tokyo, to mark 80 years since the war ended.
The Mongolian ambassador to Japan, Banzragch Bayarsaikhan, gave a speech. He stressed the importance of maintaining peace, and expressed hope that warm, friendly bilateral ties will continue.
Suzuki Fusae from Tokyo's Komae City lost her father in Mongolia. She accompanied the Japanese Emperor and Empress when they paid their respects to the deceased Japanese during their official visit to Mongolia in July.
Suzuki said she remembers the Imperial couple observing a moment of silence in the rain at the memorial. She said the sky completely cleared after their prayers and they bowed deeply again. She described the scene as the most impressive moment in her life.
Suzuki spoke about the structures built by the detained Japanese that are still standing today. She said they were carefully constructed without machinery, and she feels proud of her father and the other detained people. She expressed hope that the structures will be used to promote peace.
A participant in his 60s said he had never heard that Japanese nationals were detained in Mongolia, and he thinks it is important to pass on the memories of what happened.
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