1 MONGOLIA PM FACES LIKELY CONFIDENCE VOTE AMID CORRUPTION CLAIMS WWW.AFP.COM PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      2 RIO TINTO FINDS ITS MEGA-MINE STUCK BETWEEN TWO MONGOLIAN STRONGMEN WWW.AFR.COM PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      3 SECRETARY RUBIO’S CALL WITH MONGOLIAN FOREIGN MINISTER BATTSETSEG, MAY 30, 2025 WWW.MN.USEMBASSY.GOV  PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      4 REGULAR TRAIN RIDES ON THE ULAANBAATAR-BEIJING RAILWAY ROUTE TO BE RESUMED WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      5 MONGOLIAN DANCE TEAMS WIN THREE GOLD MEDALS AT THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP CHOREOGRAPHY LATIN 2025 WWW.MONTSAME.MN  PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      6 RUSSIA STARTS BUYING POTATOES FROM MONGOLIA WWW.CHARTER97.ORG PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      7 MONGOLIA BANS ONLINE GAMBLING, BETTING AND PAID LOTTERIES WWW.QAZINFORM.COM PUBLISHED:2025/06/02      8 HOW DISMANTLING THE US MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WILL UNDERMINE MONGOLIA WWW.THEDIPLOMAT.COM PUBLISHED:2025/05/30      9 ORBMINCO ADVANCES BRONZE FOX PROJECT IN KINCORA COPPER PROJECT IN MONGOLIA WWW.DISCOVERYALERT.COM.AU PUBLISHED:2025/05/30      10 MONGOLIA SOLAR ENERGY SECTOR GROWTH: 1,000 MW BY 2025 SUCCESS WWW.PVKNOWHOW.COM PUBLISHED:2025/05/30      ЕРӨНХИЙЛӨГЧ У.ХҮРЭЛСҮХ, С.БЕРДЫМУХАМЕДОВ НАР АЛБАН ЁСНЫ ХЭЛЭЛЦЭЭ ХИЙЛЭЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     Н.НОМТОЙБАЯР: ДАРААГИЙН ЕРӨНХИЙ САЙД ТОДРОХ НЬ ЦАГ ХУГАЦААНЫ АСУУДАЛ БОЛСОН WWW.ITOIM.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     Л.ТӨР-ОД МҮХАҮТ-ЫН ГҮЙЦЭТГЭХ ЗАХИРЛААР Х.БАТТУЛГЫН ХҮНИЙГ ЗҮТГҮҮЛЭХ ҮҮ WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     ЦЕГ: ЗУНЫ ЗУГАА ТОГЛОЛТЫН ҮЕЭР 10 ХУТГА ХУРААЖ, СОГТУУРСАН 22 ИРГЭНИЙГ АР ГЭРТ НЬ ХҮЛЭЭЛГЭН ӨГСӨН WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     УУЛ УУРХАЙН ТЭЭВЭРЛЭЛТИЙГ БҮРЭН ЗОГСООЖ, ШАЛГАНА WWW.EGUUR.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     ГАДНЫ КИБЕР ХАЛДЛАГЫН 11 ХУВЬ НЬ УИХ, 70 ХУВЬ НЬ ЗАСГИЙН ГАЗАР РУУ ЧИГЛЭДЭГ WWW.ZINDAA.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     НИЙТИЙН ОРОН СУУЦНЫ 1 М.КВ-ЫН ДУНДАЖ ҮНЭ 3.6 САЯ ТӨГРӨГ БАЙНА WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/06/02     ГОВИЙН БҮСИЙН ЧИГЛЭЛД УУЛ УУРХАЙН ТЭЭВЭРЛЭЛТИЙГ БҮРЭН ЗОГСООНО WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/05/30     СОР17 УЛААНБААТАР ХОТНОО 2026 ОНЫ НАЙМДУГААР САРЫН 17-28-НД БОЛНО WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/05/30     НИЙСЛЭЛИЙН ТӨР, ЗАХИРГААНЫ БАЙГУУЛЛАГЫН АЖИЛ 07:00 ЦАГТ ЭХЭЛЖ 16:00 ЦАГТ ТАРНА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/05/30    

Category

Events

Events

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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State Bank issues IPO www.montsame.mn

The trading ceremony of securities - issued as a public on the offering primary market by State Bank LLC – took place today. The event was attended by D. Bayarsaikhan (Chair, Financial Regulatory Commission), T. Tserenbadral (Vice-Chair, FRC), B. Javkhlan (Minister of Finance), H. Altai (CEO, Mongolian Stock Exchange), B. Tsengel (Head, Department of State Property Policy and Regulation), O. Gantor (Executive Director, State Bank LLC) and other officials.
In his opening speech, D. Bayarsaikhan highlighted that the FRC had updated the regulatory environment of the capital market, in line with international standards. The Commission had also implemented comprehensive policy measures to increase the variety of products and services in stages and on a timely basis. All this was accomplished within the framework of ‘Developing the capital market and reducing financing costs by promoting competition’ as reflected in Parliament’s ‘Strategy to Reduce Loan Interest Rate’.
As a result of taking measures to reduce financing costs (by creating a regulatory environment and creating fair competition in the financial market) the capital market has progressed significantly. Parliament's approval of the Law on Amendments to the Banking Law (in 2021) will provide impetus for the establishment of proper governance of commercial banks, and the creation of an open and transparent banking sector under public control. The Law will also ensure stability of the entire financial sector; and not just the banking sector.
Implementation of the Law was important for the development of the stock market. Banking reform will mean the following:
operations will become transparent and open,
the control system will be more sophisticated,
the capital market value will increase,
the number of new products and services (with high liquidity) will increase,
the activity and participation of foreign and domestic investors will improve, and
long-term financing will be provided to banks.
In addition to creating resources, it will be an important step in creating a multi-pillar financial system. Accordingly, the FRC has devoted increased attention to:
reorganization of banks in the form of joint-stock companies,
directions, advice and information to implement the process of offering shares to the public, and
creation of conditions required for successful organizations.
As a result, today State Bank LLC is leading the work of becoming an open joint-stock company; among influential banks in the banking system within the framework of the reform of the banking sector. It is important to remember that duties and responsibilities are greatly increased, starting with the expectations of the public.
Finally, D. Bayarsaikhan congratulated State Bank LLC and wish them success in the primary market trading.
State Bank LLC plans to raise a total of MNT22.1 billion, by offering 37,475,000 (5%) of its total shares at MNT 590 each; of which 70% will be sold to strategic investors and 30% to the general public.
Source: Financial Regulatory Commission
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Commitment expressed for intensification of public and private cooperation www.montsame.mn

Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene held an official meeting with Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida.
The parties exchanged views on the current state of relations between Mongolia and Japan, future goals, as well as on a wide range of international and regional issues.
Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene thanked the Japanese government for its continued support and reiterated its commitment to expanding strategic partnership and cooperation with Japan, the "third neighbor" with common democratic values.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed his gratitude for the participation of the Prime Minister of Mongolia in the state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He also expressed satisfaction with the progress made in strengthening political relations between the two countries, deepening mutual understanding, strengthening cooperation in the regional and international spheres.
During the meeting, the parties stressed the importance of building strong political relations between Mongolia and Japan, advancing cooperation in the economic, trade and investment fields to a new level, and intensifying public-private partnership.
“Mongolia is working to develop new environmentally friendly energy sources using advanced technologies and to get out of energy dependence, at a time when countries around the world are pursuing a policy to reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide emissions,” said L. Oyun-Erdene, expressing Mongolia’s desire to participate in a pilot project for the extraction and use of hydrogen from brown coal, which is jointly being implemented by the governments of Japan and Australia.
In addition, the parties discussed issues such as the development of tourism, regular flights of Japanese airlines to Mongolia, and visa facilitation for Mongolian citizens traveling to Japan.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Japan. During the meeting, the prime ministers exchanged views on high-level visits to be carried out in this context. They also commended the successful accomplishment of the 2017-2021 Mongolia-Japan Mid-term Action Plan for a Strategic Partnership and expressed that the next Mid-term action plan will be a document that will enrich bilateral relations and cooperation of the next 50 years with new contents, and strengthens the partnership which will be mutually beneficial in many fields, especially in terms of economy and business.
The parties also reiterated that they would actively cooperate within the UN and other international cooperation organizations.
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Rio Tinto-Turquoise Hill takeover vote set for November 1 www.mining.com

Turquoise Hill Resources (NYSE:TRQ) announced on Friday the receipt of an interim court order for its proposed plan of arrangement with Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), which would see the Anglo-Australian giant acquire the 49% of shares of TRQ that it does not already own.
The order calls for a special meeting of TRQ shareholders to be held on Nov 1 with shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 19 entitled to participate and cast their votes.
Under the sweetened deal, which has the blessing of the TRQ board, Rio Tinto will pay C$43 per share in cash, a more than 19% premium to the stock’s end-of-August closing price and a 67% premium from the day before the initial offer was made.
The deal, valued at $3.3 billion, gives Rio Tinto a 66% stake in the giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits. The remaining 34% is owned by the Mongolian government.
Rocky road to expansion
Rio Tinto has had a rocky relationship with the Montreal-based miner, particularly over how to fund Oyu Tolgoi’s expansion. Rio has also drawn criticism from some of Turquoise Hill’s minority shareholders about the control it exerts over the company.
Rio Tinto, which has mined copper from Oyu Tolgoi’s open pit for a decade, and the Mongolian government ended earlier this year a long-running dispute over the $7 billion expansion of the mine.
Once completed, the underground section of Oyu Tolgoi will lift production from 125,000–150,000 tonnes in 2019 to 560,000 tonnes at peak output, which is now expected by 2025 at the earliest. This would make it the biggest new copper mine to come on stream in several years.
Rio Tinto chief executive Jakob Stausholm has said the proposed takeover would simplify governance, improve efficiency and create greater certainty of funding for the long-term success of the Oyu Tolgoi project.
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Forests in the desert: Why Mongolia is banking on a billion new trees to halt desertification www.channelnewsasia.com

DALANZADGAD, Mongolia: The greenery appears like an oddity in the distance. In the featureless expanse of Mongolia’s southern Gobi, this is a literal oasis.
There is nothing out here to cast a shadow, but the sun and skulls of fallen livestock. And for the past two decades or so, the growing forest of 82-year-old Baraaduuz Demchig.
Elm trees stretch towards the broad sky, and beneath them fruit plantations and sea buckthorn bushes grow in soil enriched by years of care and attention.
Just metres away, on the other side of a steel perimeter fence, lies the realities of the Gobi desert. No plant could grow there in the rocky plains, at least not without more dedicated efforts from the mastermind of this green refuge.
The patch of desert surrounding Baraaduuz’s property increasingly resembles a wasteland, struck by frequent droughts, overgrazed by hungry livestock and pillaged by mining companies.
This is where the continent’s regular dramatic and damaging yellow sandstorms are born, before moving across the region and blanketing cities.
The 16-ha greenery will not stop any of that, but it does give some immediate refuge from the elements.
“In that spot you can’t just plant vegetables as it is a windy spot. I needed cover from the elements. That is why I planted trees and made the trees cover for the vegetables I planted,” Baraaduuz explained.
“The first year (1992) was difficult: it was a windy and sandy year. But in the second year, the trees were tall enough to protect my vegetables. I became a believer in trees and started to love trees. And people started to notice and asked me to give them trees and I started to plant more.
“And now from Ulaanbaatar to eastern provinces, my trees are growing,” he said.
Overall, he estimates that he has helped plant more than 400,000 trees over three decades. That is a proud legacy. But it might just be a fraction of the trees that eventually get planted throughout Mongolia, as the government looks to sharpen its response to worsening impacts of climate change.
Desertification - where land degrades, becomes arid and loses its fertility - is now affecting more than 76 per cent of Mongolia’s total land territory. Climate change and human activity are both to blame and the situation has serious implications for the lives of nomadic herders as well as the nation’s food and water security.
Earlier this year, the country’s president Ukhnaa Khurelsukh officially launched the One Billion Tree movement, an ambitious plan to reverse the relentless spread of the Gobi.
Mongolia aims to achieve the target by 2030, as part of its commitments to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Various incentives will encourage more people, as well as mining companies and corporations, to be involved.
The province of Ömnögovi has pledged to plant 70 million trees and provide financial packages to individuals for maintaining new trees in the area. Specialists there have designated 900,000 ha of land for forestation.
According to climate scientists, the idea has strong merits. In a special summary by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2019, it was reported that “native and other climate resilient tree species with low water needs, can reduce sand storms, avert wind erosion, and contribute to carbon sinks, while improving micro-climates, soil nutrients and water retention”.
The Mongolian government sees the economic potential on top of the environmental benefits.
“The billion tree movement we should understand as a regional movement and we should understand it is an economic hinge. Just think about how many people we can provide with jobs,” said Bat-erdene Bat-Ulzii, Mongolia’s minister of Environment and Tourism.
“People can have additional income. Say if they are a herder they can plant trees in their native land and can get incentives from planting the tree.
“We will try to have a billion dollars circulating through the project. Not only do we need to look at it as an economic benefit but also as a way to increase Mongolia’s GDP,” he told CNA.
But there are red flags about national and international schemes to plant large numbers of new trees without proper processes.
AVOIDING PITFALLS
One only needs to look across Mongolia’s southern border to China to see how mass tree planting can be problematic.
The Great Green Wall program was an enthusiastic climate change solution enacted in 1987 to help prevent desertification in areas around the country’s own Gobi region.
A lack of understanding about which trees to plant and where has led to disease outbreaks and wide scale forest failures.
Tree monocultures have added extra forest cover but without the benefits of a considered planting of mixed species, including the ability for trees to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
The concept has not been abandoned though. This year, President Xi Jinping committed the country to plant 70 billion trees to “green our planet, combat climate change and increase forest carbon sinks.”
In Africa, another ambitious project to build an 8,000 km green wall across the width of the continent, from Senegal to Sudan, has been beset by problems.
For Mongolia, projects like this should not come at the expense of decarbonisation, according to experts. They also said that there is a need to avoid past pitfalls, which in some cases have actually caused ecological harm.
“Yes it is important to plant trees, but we must do it in a mindful and considerate way,” said Ganchudur Tsetsegmaa, a leading desertification expert at the Mongolian Academy of Sciences.
“We need to plant trees that are resilient during droughts, trees that grow in the Gobi, so that the plants can grow with very little effort and can grow on their own when they mature. And we also need to introduce technology that uses minimal water. Without these solutions, we will waste our water.
“The region doesn’t have many springs and 80 per cent of the water comes from underground aquifers. If they dig 100m deep to get water and if we use that water for planting trees, we will have an ecological disaster,” he said.
Baraaduuz’s health now means it is increasingly difficult for him to travel to his desert oasis to tend to the trees. His grandson now cares for the forest, which has become a healthy business for the family.
But he remains an active advocate for adopting a green thumb attitude in the middle of the desert.
“To avoid making mistakes when planting trees, listen to specialists who know how to do it. There is a Mongolian proverb that goes, ‘Rather than listen to a monk who reads a formula, listen to a hag who went through adversity’.”
He added: “The ravine that I am in, in the winter it reaches -30 degrees Celsius, and in the summer it reaches 30 degrees Celsius. Two extremes, one very cold and one very hot. So if a tree is growing there, it proves a tree can grow anywhere.
“The only way to protect from desertification is to plant trees. So all that remains is to incentivise people who plant trees on their own.”
Additional reporting by Anand Tumutogoo.
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Why Mongolia Is Steering Clear of Full Membership in the SCO www.thediplomat.com

Samarkand, Uzbekistan, became the center of world attention in mid-September as leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organizations (SCO) states gathered to discuss the organization’s goals, challenges, and how to tackle pressing global issues. During the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO, Mongolia reiterated Ulaanbaatar’s position to maintain its observer status; however, Mongolia will still be active in regional trade and economic activities.
In 2004, Mongolia became the first observer state in the SCO during the Tashkent Summit, followed by India, Pakistan, and Iran in 2005. All three of the latter states have chosen to accede to full membership. Although relations between the SCO and Mongolia have developed in the past decade, Ulaanbaatar has been hesitant to become a full member. Mongolia’s concerns stem not only from Ulaanbaatar’s foreign policy outlook but trends in regional international relations.
When the SCO first began in 2001, member states focused on keeping the security status quo and counterterrorism. The SCO has the scope and potential to be a crucial contributor to global peace and security as two of its member countries (China and Russia) are also part of the U.N. Security Council, and four are nuclear weapons states.
However, fulfilling this potential heavily depends on the leadership of each member state, financial contributions, and, most importantly, whether the strategic interests of each member state are aligned. By the same token, however, its member states’ potential and capabilities are causing competition for resources and partnerships.
Since Mongolia joined the SCO as an observer state in 2004, geopolitical dynamics and the general outlook of international relations have changed. Bilateral ties between SCO member states have changed dramatically – in some cases for the worse. Since India joined the SCO in 2017, the China-India border issue has escalated, and India and Pakistan’s historical conflicts continue.
Moreover, the world is watching Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, which is causing serious concerns among its fellow SCO member states. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – two original SCO members – were engaged in active conflict along their disputed border at the time of the Samarkand summit.
And the SCO could become even more complicated in the future, with Iran set to officially gain membership status in 2023, while its rivals in the Middle East – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE – are either currently or in the process of becoming SCO dialogue partners, and possible future members.
These internal geopolitical conflicts surely do not bestow confidence in the future activities of the organization.
The discussion on whether Mongolia should accede to SCO membership has been primarily dominated by analysts positioning Ulaanbaatar in the periphery of the Moscow-Beijing orbit. However, these views diminish and undermine Mongolia’s independent foreign policy.
Mongolia’s multi-pillared foreign policy and non-nuclear weapons states status (NNWS) are significant reasons for Ulaanbaatar to abstain from joining certain organizations and security alliances. Based on the combination of these two foreign policy mechanisms, Ulaanbaatar consciously chooses diplomacy and strong bilateral relations versus depending on regional security groupings – whether the U.S. alliance network or the SCO.
Moreover, it is not in Ulaanbaatar’s interest to willfully bar itself from the freedom to pursue a multi-pillared foreign policy as a democratic nation. This allows Ulaanbaatar to freely establish and strengthen bilateral relations with all parties. For example, Mongolia has strategic partnerships (some comprehensive strategic partnerships) with Russia, China, Japan, India, and the United States.
In the eyes of Mongolian policymakers, diplomacy and bilateral relations must prevail over regional security alliances, which carry more risk due to the many political, economic, and security factors that have the potential to create a rift if and when there is a clash of strategic interests.
In 2021, during Foreign Minister of Mongolia Battsetseg Batmunkh’s official visit to Moscow, she gave an interview with Strana Industriya. Battsetseg stated Mongolia’s position to remain as an observer state in the SCO.
On the sideline of the Samarkand summit, Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa met with the secretary general of the SCO, Zhang Ming. During their conversation, Khurelsukh reiterated Ulaanbaatar’s position to maintain its observer status, while noting that Mongolia will cooperate with trade and economic activities.
Indeed, for Mongolia, the sideline meetings are arguably more important than the SCO summit itself. During the Samarkand summit, one of many important meetings for Mongolia was the Russia-Mongolia-China heads of state trilateral summit. This year’s meeting was headed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Mongolian president will lead the trilateral meeting in 2024.
During the Russia-Mongolia-China trilateral meeting, the head of states discussed the economic corridor and a gas pipeline project currently under development. In his remark, Khurelsukh stated, “Russia and Mongolia have been cooperating in the feasibility study of the gas pipeline project that would go through Mongolia. If implemented, this project would be the second major infrastructure that connects our three nations since 1955. And Mongolia is wholeheartedly hopeful to continue the trilateral dialogue and make progress on this major development.”
Mongolia’s observer status in the SCO remains a hot topic in the policymaking arena. However, given the current geopolitical environment, the Mongolian government has decided to pursue its own course of foreign policy and strengthen bilateral relations – an example of far-sighted policymaking.
Bolor Lkhaajav
Bolor Lkhaajav is a researcher specializing in Mongolia, China, Russia, Japan, East Asia, and the Americas. She holds an M.A. in Asia-Pacific Studies from the University of San Francisco.
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Nord Stream: Sweden finds new leak in Russian gas pipeline www.bbc.com

Sweden has found a new leak in a major undersea pipeline carrying Russian natural gas to the EU - making it the fourth discovered this week.
Denmark and Sweden reported gas leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines earlier this week, raising the possibility of a deliberate attack.
The EU blamed sabotage - but did not directly point the finger at Russia.
Russia dismissed suggestions that it had attacked its own pipelines as "predictable and stupid".
Instead, the Kremlin's foreign minister said the blasts had occurred in "zones controlled by American intelligence".
The German ambassador to the UK, Miguel Berger, told the BBC it was clear that a non-state actor could not have been behind the incidents.
The attacks on the pipelines were a classic example from the playbook of a state actor, said the head of Finnish security intelligence service, Antti Pelttari, although he refused to speculate which state it was.
He added that it was "highly likely" that Russia would "turn to the cyber environment over the winter" since Russian diplomats and spies had been expelled from the West after its invasion of Ukraine.
The Swedish coast guard said they had found the fourth leak on Nord Stream 2, very close to a larger leak found earlier on Nord Stream 1.
The EU has repeatedly accused Russia of using gas supplies as a weapon against the West, in retaliation for its support for Ukraine.
It is "very obvious" who is behind the damage, said the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, without elaborating.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he was "extremely concerned" about the leaks, adding that the possibility of a deliberate attack could not be ruled out.
EU leaders have said any attack on the continent's energy infrastructure would be met with the "strongest possible response".
Meanwhile, Norway - which is not in the EU - said it would deploy its military to protect oil and gas installations.
Neither Nord Stream 1 or 2 is transporting gas at the moment, although they both contain gas.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline - which consists of two parallel branches - has not transported any gas since late August when Russia closed it down, saying it needed maintenance.
It stretches 1,200km (745 miles) under the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast near St Petersburg to north-eastern Germany. Its twin pipeline, Nord Stream 2, was halted after Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
Seismologists reported underwater blasts before the leaks emerged. Denmark's Defence Command has released footage of the leaks which shows bubbles - the largest is 1km in diameter - at the surface of the Baltic Sea.
And Bjorn Lund of Sweden's National Seismology Centre said there was "no doubt that these were explosions".
However, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council - a Moscow-based think tank - said a Russian attack didn't make sense.
"They always point finger at Russia but I think since it's the Russian property it would be not very logical for Russia to inflict damage upon it," he told BBC Radio 4.
"There are other ways to make European lives harder. They can simply stop the gas deliveries without damaging the infrastructure."
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Is a global recession coming? More experts are raising the alarm www.aljazeera.com

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – After beginning as a murmur early in the year, warnings of an incoming global recession are growing louder by the day.
During the past week, high-profile figures from the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to American Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman have sounded the alarm about the likelihood of a global downturn.
In a survey released by the Switzerland-based World Economic Forum on Wednesday, seven out of 10 respondents in a sample of 22 leading private and public sector economists said they believed a global recession was at least somewhat likely in 2023.
Meanwhile, Ned Davis Research, a Florida-based research firm known for its Global Recession Probability Model, raised the likelihood of a global recession next year to 98.1 percent, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic-related downturn of 2020 and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
While the war in Ukraine, China’s draconian pandemic policies, and runaway inflation are all clouding the economic outlook, investors are particularly concerned about the prospect of the United States Federal Reserve raising interest rates so aggressively that the world’s largest economy tips into recession — taking much of the rest of the world with it.
Historically, the US and other central banks have found it difficult to manage the task of raising rates — which raises the cost of borrowing and investment for businesses and households — without dealing a severe blow to economic growth. Past recessions, which are usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, have been blamed on the Fed’s efforts to cool high inflation, including back-to-back downturns in the early 1980s.
Critics, including renowned economists such as Jeremy Siegel, have accused the US Fed this time around of waiting too long to begin raising rates, only to resort to drastic hikes of late to make up for its prior inaction.
Despite holding out hope for a “soft landing” for the economy, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that central bank officials “don’t know” whether their efforts to rein in inflation will lead to a recession or how severe a recession would be.
“For the US, if inflation does not show signs of cooling in the last few months of 2022, and measures of inflation expectations start to climb, it would force the Federal Reserve to continue with aggressive rate hikes beyond 2022 into the spring of 2023 — in my opinion that’s when the economy will tip into a recession,” Pao-Lin Tien, an assistant professor of economics at George Washington University, told Al Jazeera.
“I think a similar situation would apply to other countries as well, if central banks are forced to increase rates aggressively and persistently, either to defend their currency or to tame inflation, then a recession is inevitable.”
Campbell R Harvey, a professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business who pioneered the use of US bond market yields to predict recessions, said the Fed’s actions could “easily push the economy into recession — and a recession would be very effective in reducing inflation.”
“However, recessions are very painful,” Harvey told Al Jazeera. “No one wants to be laid off or be forced to collect government assistance for a prolonged period of time.”
Harvey said, however, that the yield curve indicator he has used to predict the last eight recessions did not indicate an imminent downturn, as the curve had yet to invert for a full quarter.
“When an inversion happens, it is very bad news and is associated with a recession,” he said.
Risks in Europe, Asia
Outside the US, economic headwinds offer little cause for optimism.
Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, three of Europe’s largest economies, are expected to undergo lengthy recessions next year, largely due to the energy supply issues caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Monday.
The OECD expects the eurozone to grow just 0.3 percent in 2023, indicating that many of the bloc’s economies will be in recession throughout periods of the year.
While the Asia Pacific is expected to avoid contraction, China’s “zero-COVID” lockdowns and border restrictions are becoming a serious drag on the region’s growth potential.
On Tuesday, the World Bank slashed its economic forecast for the Asia Pacific to 3.2 percent, down from 5 percent in April, and nearly halved its forecast for China to 2.8 percent.
Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong, said Asian economies would not be spared from the fallout of rising interest rates, although the region was looking at a “slowdown not a meltdown”.
“We think Asian growth will decelerate. For economies more exposed to the trade cycle, the impact of weakening external demand will feel worse, such as South Korea and Taiwan,” Nguyen told Al Jazeera.
“In emerging Asia excluding China, the tightening of financial conditions will push down investment. Consumption is expected to decelerate but remain sticky as they are mostly essentials in emerging Asia excluding China.”
Harvey, the Duke professor, said that although he had “much more confidence” that Europe would spend 2023 in recession than the US, the world was facing a precarious economic outlook.
“Inflation is a global phenomenon. Inflation surges are often associated with recessions,” he said. “Yes, if the US goes into recession, it would likely lead to a global recession — especially given that Europe is likely already in a recession.”
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
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TMK completes initial drilling at Mongolian CBM project www.naturalgasworld.com

Australia’s TMK Energy has completed the initial exploration drilling programme at the Gurvantes XXXV coalbed methane project in Mongolia, it said on September 28.
Total net coal thickness at Snow Leopard–03R (SL-03R) step out well increased by 25% to 175 m from 140 m. TMK drilled five wells in the initial stage with the fifth well, SL-5, added later. SL-5 is currently being respud due to technical difficulties.
Netherland, Sewell & Associates (NSAI) have now been engaged to start the company’s maiden independent contingent resource assessment for the project. The assessment is expected to take approximately six weeks to complete and will integrate the new data obtained from the initial exploration drilling programme.
TMK holds a 100% interest in the Gurvantes project. Fellow Australian energy company Talon Energy is earning a 33% working interest in the project under an existing two-stage farm-out agreement executed in February 2021.
With the completion of the fourth exploration well pursuant to the two-stage farm-out agreement with Talon, the initial drilling obligation under stage one is now complete, TMK said.
If Talon elects to proceed, the next stage of the farmout agreement consists of a commitment by Talon to fund 100% of the next $3.15mn which is budgeted towards the pilot production well programme, after which it will have earnt a 33% interest in the project. Talon can elect at any time within 90 days from September 26 to proceed with the next funding stage.
“Prior to and irrespective of any formal election from Talon with respect to the next stage of the farmout agreement, the company has elected to fast track the planning and design process of the pilot well programme,” TMK said.
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President U.Khurelsukh gets acquainted with harvesting progress in agrarian regions www.montsame.mn

President U.Khurelsukh has made a working trip to agrarian regions - Tov, Selenge and Darkhan-Uul aimags to get acquainted with the harvesting process and meet agrarians.
Tuv aimag provides 70 percent of the country’s total needs of potatoes and vegetables, and sowed wheat on 7,607 hectares, barley on 256 hectares, oats on 1,967 hectares, animal fodder on 1,824 hectares, oil plants on 6,429 hectares, and potatoes and vegetables on 238.4 hectares respectively. Currently, the harvesting is running at 36 percent.
The agrarians expressed their support for the ‘Food Supply and Security’ movement initiated by the President. As it is difficult to sell potatoes and vegetables in the market, they also asked support for this issue.
Mongolia has set a goal to provide its domestic needs of 19 types of food products within the next five years. As a result, the cultivation of potato and vegetables has doubled this year. President U.Khurelsukh said that he would further support farmers in every way within the framework of the ‘Food Supply and Security’ national movement.
The President also got acquainted with the harvesting process of ‘Uguuj Mandal Uul’ LLC in Selenge aimag, where he visited the forest strips and tree nursery in the farming field.
In Selenge aimag, the grain harvesting is running at 32 percent, while potatoes and vegetables’ harvest is 60 percent. As of September 26, 55 thousand tons of wheat, 964 tons of fodder plants, 4 thousand tons of oil plants, 15 thousand tons of potatoes, and 20 thousand tons of vegetables were harvested.
The President also has worked in ‘Shine orchin trade’ LLC, ‘Uyug guril’ LLC and ‘Darkhan-Erdene meat factory’ LLC in Darkhan-Uul aimag. Darkhan-Uul aimag produces 4.2 percent of the country's crops, 4.4 percent of potatoes, and 18 percent of vegetables.
This year, the sowing was made to over 22 thousand hectares of land, including potatoes on 646 hectares, vegetables on 1,525 hectares, and animal fodder on 549 hectares. According to the preliminary balance, it is expected to harvest 46 thousand tons of crops.
In 2022, it is expected to harvest 330 thousand tons of wheat nationwide, which means that the country’s flour needs can be met domestically. Also, the country plans to prepare more than 480 thousand tons of meat, reserve over 350 thousand tons for domestic needs, and export more than 50 thousand tons.
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ESG, geopolitics ranked top risks for mining companies, EY survey shows www.mining.com

Global mining and metals executives view environment, social and governance (ESG), geopolitics and climate change as the top three risks facing their business over the next 12 months, according to this year’s ranking of the Top 10 business risks and opportunities for mining and metals in 2023 by EY.
“We’ve witnessed huge upheaval and change over the last year, namely due to the war in Ukraine, climate events, new governments in mining regions and shifting relationships in others — all coming together to drive substantial impact on the sector,” explains Theo Yameogo, Americas mining and metals leader.
“These external factors combined with inflation will continue to shift the sector’s risks and opportunities as pressure form stakeholders and capital markets hold leaders accountable on multiple fronts. Companies that can demonstrate their ability to future-proof their business models to better deal with disruption and changing commercial relationships will ultimately gain a competitive advantage.”
While evidence has shown that mining and metals companies are integrating ESG factors into corporate strategies, decision-making and reporting, survey respondents continued to rank ESG issues as the number one risk to their business, with climate change following closely behind in the third position (see below).
ranking radar chart
“Net zero is still a focus, but mining and metals companies are also mitigating broader transition and physical risks,” says Yameogo. “Companies must play a role in enabling a just transition — achieving decarbonization targets while considering the long-term impact of mine closures on workers and communities.”
Respondents ranked geopolitics as the second business risk — up from fourth last year, with 72% identifying resource nationalism as the top geopolitical factor likely to impact their operations as governments seek to fill revenue gaps after spending throughout the pandemic and capitalize on higher commodity prices through new or increased mining royalties.
Respondents also listed water stewardship (76%), decarbonization (55%) and green production (35%) as the top issues they expect will face the most scrutiny from investors (see below).
which are the top esg issues graph
Various external and societal factors such as the impact of Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and rising energy prices have magnified the challenges that have been looming for some time. In response, respondents say they are seeking to improve end-to-end supply chain visibility, leverage technology to improve operations and performance, and be more strategic when analyzing new technologies and supplier portfolios.
“Major disruption and rapidly changing expectations, together, may impact the ability for mining and metals companies to build sustainable value,” Yameogo adds. “Risk mitigation and maximizing opportunity requires companies to make significant changes to their business through a proactive, diversified approach that’s integrated into strategy and broader planning.”
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