Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Economic recovery stimulus bills being drafted www.montsame.mn
At its weekly meeting on December 8, the Cabinet ordered the working group drafting a package of bills to stimulate economic recovery to complete the task promptly and the Minister of Justice and Home Affairs to present the package at the Cabinet’s next regular meeting.
Issues related to the government’s productivity, checkpoints, energy sector, traffic congestion in Ulaanbaatar, industrialization, and natural resources have become impediments to economic growth in Mongolia. Economic recovery and sustainable and inclusive growth are expected to be achieved once the impediment factors are removed as part of the New Revival policy and a comprehensive set of measures are adopted to improve the workforce participation and productivity that have been on the decline over the last decade.
The drafting of the economic recovery stimulus package is key to implementing the New Revival Policy.
Erdene gains key environment nod, begins early work at Bayan Khundii in Mongolia www.mining.com
Erdene Resource Development (TSX: ERD; MSE: ERDN) has received approval of the detailed environmental impact assessment for its Bayan Khundii gold project in Mongolia.
The company says it will now begin preparatory work for project construction. A formal construction decision is expected in early 2022.
In 2020, Erdene produced a bankable feasibility study for the project that gave it a net present value at a discount rate of 5% of $100 million and an internal rate of return of 42%, both after taxes. An open pit mine is expected to produce 382,700 oz. of gold during the eight-year first phase of operation at an all-in sustaining cost of $733/oz. of gold. At a gold price of $1,400/oz., the project would pay for itself in less than two years.
Resources at Bayan Khundii are 8.3 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 2.19 g/t gold for 585,000 contained ounces. The inferred resource is 500,000 tonnes at 2.18 g/t gold for 36,000 contained ounces.
In August, Erdene announced a new gold discovery about 300 metres west of the Bayan Khundii deposit. Drilling has continued to expand this discovery with the best hole being UDH-22 that returned 77 metres of 3.2 g/t gold and 71 metres of 0.8 g/t gold, including 27 metres at 8.7 g/t, and within that intersection 1 metre of 156.5 g/t gold.
Follow-up drilling at the Dark Horse Mane target 2.4 km north of Bayan Khundii has confirmed a high-grade oxide gold zone starting at the surface and open along strike and at depth. The best assays came from hole ADD-146 with 17 metres grading 16.7 /t gold, including 8 metres of 33.5 g/t gold.
(This article first appeared in the Canadian Mining Journal)
COVID-19: 310 new cases, three deaths reported www.montsame.mn
The Ministry of Health reported today that 310 СOVID-19 infections and three deaths were recorded in the last 24 hours.
In detail, 196 cases were reported in Ulaanbaatar city, with 111 cases in 21 provinces and three imported cases.
As of today, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mongolia stands at 385,476. Furthermore, three new COVID-19 related death has been reported, raising the country’s death toll to 1,950.
Currently, 4,046 people are receiving hospital treatment for COVID-19 whilst 7,635 people with mild symptoms of COVID-19 are being isolated at home.
Of the total patients currently undergoing treatment at hospitals, there are 472 patients in mild, 1947 in serious, 490 in critical, and 69 in very critical conditions.
Nationwide livestock census begins www.montsame.mn
Annual nationwide livestock census of this year is ongoing. The year-end census of livestock is being organized between December 7 and 17.
The National Statistic Office of Mongolia urges citizens and entities to actively participate in the 40th nationwide livestock census, which has been conducted annually since 1961.
The nationwide livestock census of 2020 found that the head of livestock in Mongolia totaled 67.1 million, of which 4.1 million horses, 4.7 million cattle, 472.9 thousand camels, 30.0 million of sheep, and 27.7 million goats.
Mongolia’s Prime Minister elected as a chairman of MPP www.news.mn
On Monday (6 December), Mongolian Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene was elected chairman of the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP).
He received 99.7 percent of the votes from 1,245 party members across the country who are attending the MPP’s two-day congress, which began yesterday. 40–year-old L.Oyun-Erdene graduated from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University with a Masters in Public Policy. During his time as chief cabinet secretary, Oyun-Erdene has dedicated himself to “Vision 2050,” Mongolia’s long-term development strategy.
L.Oyun-Erdene is safeguarding former Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh’s cabinet. On January, the former Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh, offering a grand gesture of accountability following recent protests over COVID-19 measures. Soon after, he announced a his nomination to 2021 Presidential Election of Mongolia. Sure enough U.Khurelsukh claimed landslide victory at the presidential election in June.
A champion of Naadam wrestling banned from competitions for 8 years www.news.mn
On 6 December, the Executive Board of Mongolian National Wrestling Association decided to ban four Mongolian wrestlers from competitions for 4-8 years. The State Lion E.Oyunbold who became champion of this year’s Naadam wrestling, has been banned for eight years after testing positive for banned substances repeatedly. Therefore, the doping scandal of national wrestler E.Oyunbold has finally closed after two years.
Separately, two wrestlers who has Provincial Lions titles and one Provincial Elephant were banned for four years from competitions.
The Foundation for Supporting Sports has been organising the ‘Mongolia against doping’ campaign in cooperation with the National Anti-Doping Centre since 2017.
Mongolian top Olympian faces a criminal charge for assault www.news.mn
Mongolian prosecutors charged N.Tuvshinbayar, a two-time Olympic medalist for a drunken assault which caused a fellow wrestler in a coma in April, 2021. The prosecutors submitted the case on 1 December to the Khan-Uul District Court charging N.Tuvshinbayar with a criminal code which carries a maximum sentence of 12 years in jail.
N.Tuvshinbayar, 36, was detained for 20 days as part of an urgent operation by permission of the prosecutor.
The victim is E.Enkhbat, a fellow judoka and a close colleague of Tuvshinbayar. E.Enkhbat was hospitalised unconsciousness at the intensive care unit of the National Centre for Treatment and Research after the assault that appears to have caused serious brain damage. Shortly after that, the victim flew to South Korea for brain surgery.
Enkhbat’s career medals include a silver in the men’s under-100kg category at the International Judo Federation (IJF) Grand Slam in Baku in Azerbaijan in 2013 and a gold in the same category at the IJF World Cup in Jeju, South Korea in 2012.
After winning the Olympic gold medal at Beijing 2008, N.Tuvshinbayar competed in the same under-100kg category at London 2012, claiming a silver medal on this occasion.
He was elected unopposed as President of the MNOC, which this year is celebrating its 65th anniversary, which occurred August last year. After the incident, N.Tuvshinbayar was removed from a position of the position.
New automotive assembly factory opens www.montsame.mn
A section of the first Blockchain Automotive Factory of Mongolia has opened on December 6.
Former Prime Minister R.Amarjargal and Bars Motors LLC founder and CEO D.Demberel kicked off the opening ceremony. “Mongolia has a high car ownership rate and annually imports 60-70 thousand old cars. Statistics show the country spends USD 500-800 million on automobile imports every year, which leads more money to flow out of the country for gasoline imports," said the Bars Motors founder. "Therefore, Bars Motors LLC intended to provide its customers with an automobile suitable for the Mongolian climate, MOZO”
Bars Motors opened a joint automotive assembly plant with a yearly capacity of 25 thousand automobiles in Hangzhou, China in 2019. This, time the company is opening the first Blockchain Automotive Factory of Mongolia, where automobiles will be assembled using parts supplied directly from manufacturers in Germany and Japan. The factory has a capacity to assemble 2,500 automobiles per year and the information about where the automobile parts were manufactured, how they were transported, where the automobile was assembled and sold, and who the owner of the automobile is, will be kept in a digital format.
Revenue of hotel industry increases by 1.6 percent www.montsame.mn
In the first nine months of this year, the hotel industry revenue reached MNT 131.7 billion, showing an increase of MNT 2.1 billion or 1.6 percent, compared to the same period of the previous year.
This increase was mainly due to MNT 2.7 billion (6%) increase in revenue of unrated hotels and camps, reports The National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO).
Of the total revenue of the first nine months of this year in the hotel industry, three or more stars hotels accounted for 62.3 percent, unrated hotels --35.7 percent and two-star hotel -- 1.9 percent.
Inflation, China and Virus: What to watch while investing in stocks in 2022 www.financialexpress.com
Bloomberg: A year ago, the average stock strategist may not have seen that the world’s best-performing index in 2021 would be Mongolia, or that a movie theater chain would rise 13-fold.
And while many were bullish, few predicted the sheer ferocity of the rally that pushed European and U.S. stocks to successive records, or the dip after the emergence of the omicron variant of Covid-19. Even fewer had forecast the slump in China or the liquidity crisis affecting the nation’s developers.
In short, it was a year of surprises — that was the least surprising thing about it. Getting the details right in 2022 will be no easier — but a few broad themes are likely to persist.
Covid-19
Pandemic developments have been the market’s main driver for almost two years, causing a crash in 2020 and then a sustained rally on the back of vaccination programs that allowed an economic reopening. And now worries over the omicron variant have sent ripples through world stock indexes.
Most strategists expect the virus to become a sidenote next year, as the advent of anti-viral pills from Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. add to humanity’s arsenal against the deadly infection. This majority view hasn’t changed in the face of warnings that the new strain may not respond to existing treatments.
Still, if there’s one thing the pandemic has taught us it’s that equity strategy is one thing, and epidemiology is another. And even if the virus becomes an endemic nuisance, the roller-coaster of restrictions to isolate those infected “is turning into a more persistent drag on growth,” said Romain Boscher, global chief investment officer for equities at Fidelity International.
Even if the virus were to disappear from our lives, that would likely still define stock market direction, as there would be no further grounds for fiscal and monetary stimulus — two of the main drivers of this year’s exuberance.
Inflation
Markets looked through surging prices this year, and for good reason, as soaring corporate earnings proved that companies can pass on higher costs to a consumer that remains willing to spend.
If inflationary pressures ease in coming months, don’t expect a relief rally, as that’s what stocks have priced in. “Having had its transitory inflation cake in 2021, the market may not get to eat it again in 2022,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang wrote in a note.
Should price pressures persist, or even intensify, things could get tricky. Stocks are only a good hedge against inflation up to a certain point, which Oddo BHF, WallachBeth Capital and Lombard Odier put at 3% to 5%. Sustained price growth beyond 4% would erode profit and harm stocks, according to Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi asset at Lombard Odier.
High inflation would also pressure central banks to tighten policy, thus raising borrowing costs for highly indebted countries, such as Italy, and draining market liquidity. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell drew first blood this past week, warning about the possibility of faster tapering of asset purchases.
Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker says the impact of the European Central Bank’s possible tapering on peripheral European debt is among the biggest downside risks next year, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists singled a hawkish turn by central banks as the key downside to their bullish outlook.
Decarbonization
One reason that inflation may stay structurally higher is the transition to climate neutrality, a goal toward which the world’s biggest economies — from the U.S. to India — collectively committed this year. Higher carbon prices and environmental taxes increase production costs for industrials, while under-investment in fossil fuels has contributed to a spike in energy costs that threatens to dampen growth and disrupt output.
On the flip side, asset managers from BlackRock Inc. to Nuveen say decarbonization creates unprecedented investment opportunities. One needs look no further than electric cars for examples: Tesla Inc. stock has risen more than 1,000% since the start of last year, while Rivian Automotive Inc.’s market value briefly soared to more than $100 billion after last month’s trading debut, even though its sales are essentially non-existent.
With the Green party now in government in Europe’s biggest economy, decarbonization stocks may get a boost after declines this year for the likes of Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA and Vestas Wind Systems A/S.
The Metaverse
Facebook’s rebranding drew attention to a growing space of economic activity outside the physical world, from social media to gaming platforms. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp. and video-game company Roblox Corp. are just two of the stocks to have surged briefly after Mark Zuckerberg rebranded the company he co-founded as Meta Platforms Inc.
The metaverse — digital worlds where users can socialize, play games and conduct business — is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity, according to Epic Games Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Sweeney.
Already, a digital model of a Gucci bag, which can only be used in a gaming platform universe, can cost more than the physical version. That’s because people in the developed world now spend more time online than interacting in physical spaces, according to Morgan Stanley. While the move accelerated with stay-at-home orders during the pandemic, it is projected to continue in the years ahead, and may take off for real when Apple Inc. joins the party.
China
Beijing rolled out swinging measures to curb the profits of technology giants and tutoring firms this year, and imposed restrictions on lending to real estate developers to cut its dependence on the sector. At the same time, soaring factory-gate prices made it hard for companies to maintain profit margins, while the lack of any significant easing measures by the country’s central bank in recent months has taken a toll on economic growth.
Offshore Chinese stocks in Hong Kong are among the world’s worst performers this year, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index is down more than 50% from its February peak. The MSCI China Index is near the lowest versus global stocks since 2006.
Still, many global institutions are turning more constructive on Chinese stocks.
BlackRock sees the peak of regulation having passed and expects more pro-economy measures to start having an impact in the new year, while BNP Paribas predicts Beijing will adjust its policies toward real estate developers and supporting the private sector at a key economic meeting this month.
“We believe the timing to position is right now,” BlackRock portfolio manager Lucy Liu said in a briefing on Nov. 23.
Goldman Sachs is bullish on the investment opportunities associated with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign, such as renewable energy. And UBS Group AG says tighter regulations have been priced in, while corporate earnings and valuations are set to improve.
And There’s More…
Staying on top of these themes won’t necessarily guarantee meaningful returns for investors. Potential black or white swan events are lurking everywhere: from the U.S. midterm elections to the French presidential vote, and from tensions in Taiwan to a full-blown crisis in Turkey’s economy following the plunge of the lira. Supply chain bottlenecks will continue to be closely watched, while global warming is another wildcard that traders may need to consider.
It’s therefore no surprise that there’s no consensus among the world’s most prominent strategists about the direction of equity markets: while HSBC Holdings Plc’s Max Kettner advises investors to start pulling the plug on stocks in the first half of next year, and sees things brightening up in the second half, UBS Global Wealth Management predicts exactly the opposite — a good start followed by a deteriorating outlook in the back end of the year.
While Goldman Sachs sees markets grinding higher next year, Bank of America Corp. takes a rather apocalyptic view, predicting low or negative, and in any case volatile returns in 2022.
And if we learned anything from 2021, it is that focusing on the fundamentals of companies you invest isn’t always the most rewarding strategy. By ignoring such principals, some retail investors made serious money last year, with AMC Entertainment Holdings up about 1,200%, and GameStop Corp. returning more than 800% for no apparent reason than a social-media fueled craze.
Going forward, Goldman Sachs advises investors be selective, avoiding firms with high labor costs and stocks valued entirely on long-term growth expectations. But then again, that’s just what strategists advised last year.
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