Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Goldman recapitulates $5 a pound copper price by end of 2021 www.mining.com
In a new research note, Goldman Sachs says the copper price is “poised for the next leg higher” as short term headwinds fade and fundamentals point to a significant demand boost further out.
Goldman says the copper concentrate market remains very tight, creating a bottleneck for primary metal production in China, reinforcing its projection for a significant 430,000 tonne refined deficit in the second half of the year.
Goldman projects a 200,000 tonne deficit next year, and also halved its projected surplus for 2023 to 129,000 tonnes “after which open-ended deficits start”.
Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) paid by miners to smelters to process concentrate into refined metal rise when supply is ample and fall when smelters are forced to compete for scarce material.
“…WITH A FINITE AMOUNT OF STRATEGIC RESERVES, POLICYMAKERS ARE SIMPLY RAISING RIGHT TAIL PRICE RISKS, PARTICULARLY AS WE EXPECT THE BULL MARKET TO BE SUSTAINED ON A MULTI-YEAR BASIS IMPLYING A DEPLETION RISK ON THIS STOCK SOURCE”
Goldman Sachs
While TC/RCs have risen to around $45 a tonne in July from historically low levels of just over $20 a tonne in April, today’s charges still compare to more than $70 a tonne in June last year and spikes as high as $130 in the 2010s.
Gone in 36 hours
Chinese headwinds are receding and demand in the rest of the world is robust, evidenced by premiums for physical copper in the US rising to five year highs.
Goldman believes the copper market has now moved beyond Beijing’s attempts to cool prices and the impact of sales from the country’s strategic reserves – the “final tool for generating downward price pressure (short of slowing overall activity)” – in fact creates conditions for price rises down the line:
“…with a finite amount of strategic reserves, policymakers are simply raising right tail price risks, particularly as we expect the bull market to be sustained on a multi-year basis implying a depletion risk on this stock source.”
Besides, as Goldman points out, Beijing’s first batch of copper on auction of 50,000 tonnes amounts to just 36 hours of Chinese copper consumption.
Start your motors
Goldman also upgraded its longer-term outlook for copper based on a significant lift in electric vehicle sales over the next ten years.
The EU recently put forward even tighter emissions standards – 55% reduction by 2030 and a ban on sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035.
Click here for an interactive chart of copper prices
That, coupled with higher EV sales in China boosted by the popularity of cheaper LFP battery-powered cars, lifted analysts’ predictions of EV sales by 30% or three million more units by 2025. By 2030 EV sales would reach 32 million a year, versus a tenth of that last year.
Goldman now expects average annual additional copper demand coming from EVs of ~200kt in the next ten years, translating to green copper demand of 2.7 million tonnes in 2025 and 5.8 million tonnes in 2030 – accounting for 18% of global copper demand.
Spec positioning cleansed
Another factor priming copper for a move higher soon is a 75% drop in net long positioning (bets that the copper would be more expensive in future) in the US from its peak in December and, a 30% decline in open interest in Shanghai creating a re-entry point for bulls.
In the report Goldman reiterated its bullish forecast for a copper price of $11,000 a tonne (just below $5 per pound) by the end of the year and $11,500 by this time next year.
On Friday in New York copper was trending weaker with September futures down 1% to $4.48 a pound or $9,875 a tonne, implying a double digit percentage move higher if forecasts are met.
Zoom settles 'zoombombing' and data privacy lawsuit for $85 million www.cnn.com
New York (CNN Business)Zoom Video Communications agreed to pay $85 million in a preliminary lawsuit settlement filed Saturday afternoon. The deal is in response to a class action lawsuit over users' concerns over the company allegedly having shared personal data with Facebook (FB), Google and LinkedIn as well as instances of "zoombombing," when an unwanted hacker joins a call.
The FBI issued a warning against "zoombombing" in March 2020, citing examples of users entering meetings or virtual classrooms to shout profanities and share pornography. The FBI urged victims of "teleconference hijacking" to report any incidents to the agency.
The video conferencing company has agreed to more than a dozen "major changes to its practices, designed to improve meeting security, bolster privacy disclosures, and safeguard consumer data," according to the settlement documents.
These changes are expected to include "in-meeting notifications to make it easier for users to understand who can see, save, and share Zoom users' information" and "alerting users when a meeting host or another participant uses a third-party application during a meeting."
"The privacy and security of our users are top priorities for Zoom, and we take seriously the trust our users place in us," a spokesperson for the company told CNN Business. "We are proud of the advancements we have made to our platform, and look forward to continuing to innovate with privacy and security at the forefront," the spokesperson added.
Paid subscribers in the class action lawsuit are eligible for 15% refunds on their Zoom core subscriptions, or $25 — whichever amount is larger — and other Zoom users could be eligible for up to $15, according to the settlement.
Zoom collected approximately $1.3 billion in subscriptions from the class action participants who paid for a subscription, according to settlement documents.
The deal requires approval from US District Judge Lucy Koh in San Jose, California, to be finalized.
Tokyo reports 2,195 new cases of coronavirus www.nhk.or.jp
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says it confirmed 2,195 new coronavirus infections in the capital on Monday, 766 more than a week ago.
It is the highest tally for a Monday since the pandemic began last year.
People in their 20s and 30s make up the majority of cases, at 773 and 520 respectively.
The seven-day average number of cases through Monday is 3,214. That is more than two times the figure from a week ago.
The total number of cases in the capital now stands at 223,221.
Tokyo officials say that 114 patients are in serious condition.
Global Academy for Professional Education (GAPE) in Mongolia starts offering an exciting range of programmes creating pathways to high ranking universities in the UK www.gape.education
As an experienced global education service provider, GAPE is pleased to announce that it has now expanded its operations by officially launching Foundation programme offered to Mongolian students in partnership with International Foundation Group, UK.
Upon successful completion of this programme, the students will be able to receive offers of places at outstanding UK universities. This programme is recognised to be equivalent to A Levels, Regulated Qualifications Framework (RQF) Level 3 in the UK and International Baccalaureate ©.
Benefits that this programme offers include:
• The 9-month foundation programme helps students develop skills required to succeed at the university level.
• It is guaranteed that all students who pass the required courses will receive offers for degree courses from the partner universities in the UK.
• Not only does it provide students with the required qualification to enter university, IFG also offers one-to-one counselling support to each student on their progression to UK universities (university enrollment, choosing the right course, and essay writing).
The courses offered are as follows:
Foundation in Business Management
Foundation in Engineering
Foundation in Social Sciences
Foundation in Computer Sciences
Medical Foundation Programme
For more information, please visit www.gape.education/ and call 99910919
...
Mongolia logs 1,063 new COVID-19 cases www.xinhuanet.com
Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia reported 1,063 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours, bringing its national tally to 166,210, the country's health ministry said Monday.
A total of 5,221 samples were tested across the country in the past day.
Among the latest confirmed cases, 283 were detected in the capital city Ulan Bator, with the rest reported elsewhere in the country.
Ulan Bator, which is home to over half of the country's total population, is the hardest hit by COVID-19.
The disease has claimed 850 lives in Mongolia since the country's first case was reported in March last year.
The Asian country launched its national vaccination campaign in late February, with the aim of vaccinating at least 60 percent of its population of 3.3 million.
So far, 61 percent of the country's residents have received two jabs
2.4 mln heads of livestock killed in Mongolia in H1 due to severe weather www.xinhuanet.com
Aug.2 (Xinhua) -- Severe weather conditions killed a total of 2.4 million heads of livestock across Mongolia in the first half of this year, the country's national statistics office said Monday.
Extreme wintry weather known as dzud, heavy snow and dust storms, and drought are the main causes of the animal deaths, the statistics office said.
Around 70 percent of the livestock deaths occurred in four provinces, namely Bayankhongor, Dundgovi, Uvurkhangai and Govi-Altai, which had suffered mostly from heavy snow and dust storms in the spring of this year.
Nearly 90 percent of the dead animals were goats and sheep.
Animal husbandry is the backbone of the landlocked country's economy as nearly 40 percent of its nomads depend on animal husbandry for their livelihoods
China-Mongolia border port sees robust growth in China-Europe freight trains www.english.scio.gov.cn
The import and export values of goods transported by China-Europe freight trains has surpassed 20 billion yuan (about 3 billion U.S. dollars) via the border port of Erenhot in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, local railway authorities said.
The number of China-Europe freight trains via the port has reached 7,187 as of Wednesday, carrying 610,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) of goods.
The top export commodities during the first half of the year were engineering vehicles, electrical equipment, auto parts and household appliances, according to the customs of Erenhot.
Erenhot Port, an important channel for international cargo in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, has around 50 China-Europe freight train routes passing through it.
No bull! Russia becomes top-supplier of beef to China www.rt.com
Russia has overtaken Australia, Argentina and Brazil in beef exports to the Chinese market, which are likely to grow further over the next five years, the Center for Industry Expertise (CIE) of Russia’s Rosselkhozbank says.
China bought some 3.7 thousand tons of Russian beef in the first quarter of 2021, 20 times more than during the same period last year, the industry department of the agricultural bank reported.
Over 55% of Russia’s total cattle meat exports go to the Chinese market. Overall, Russia sent about 6.5 thousand tons of cattle meat abroad in January-March, nearly two and a half times more than a comparable period in 2020.
The CIE explains the export growth as “the effect of a low base and a competitive price,” which makes Russian beef popular among Chinese consumers. Also, China’s own meat production was damaged by the African swine fever in 2018-2019, which forced the country to increase meat imports. Experts say this trend will continue for at least five more years.
“The need to keep meat imports at a high level will remain for at least the next five years, while the effects of the African swine fever outbreak are felt. Therefore, in the coming years, imports of Russian beef to China will continue to grow at a high rate,” the head of the CIE, Andrei Dalnov, predicts.
China’s former major suppliers have had problems of their own, with Australia and Argentina both cutting their exports due to the pandemic. Brazilian companies were compromised back in 2017, when several dozen of the country’s agricultural enterprises were shut down due to non-compliance with sanitary conditions.
ALSO ON RT.COM
20 years after the Russo-Chinese friendship treaty, relationship between two nations at ‘unprecedented heights,’ says Moscow
Cattle meat production in Russia has been growing since 2018, with experts stating that its dynamics remained positive, even amid the pandemic. Russia produced a total of 314,000 tons of cattle meat in the first quarter of 2021.
Experts say the high demand from the Chinese market will not affect beef prices in Russia, While the annual demand for beef reaches 1.94 million tons, the country exports just 20,000 tons, which is a little more than one percent. Also, unlike consumers in China, Russians prefer to buy cheaper meats like chicken and pork, with only about 17% choosing beef.
Mongolia adds 992 new COVID-19 cases www.xinhuanet.com
Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- COVID-19 infections in Mongolia increased by 992 over the past 24 hours to 165,147, the country's health ministry said Sunday.
A total of 6,075 samples were tested across the country in the past day, and the latest confirmed cases were all locally transmitted, the ministry said in a statement.
Meanwhile, five patients aged 61-80 died from the disease in the past day, pushing the national death toll to 847.
The Asian country launched a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign in late February, aiming to cover at least 60 percent of its population of 3.3 million.
More than 2,177,100 Mongolians have so far received their first dose, and over 1,981,290 have been fully vaccinated.
Japan inks $8 mil. in aid to Mongolia over COVID-19 www.english.kyodonews.net
Tokyo -Japan has signed an agreement with Mongolia to extend 883 million yen ($8 million) in grant aid to help the country fight the coronavirus pandemic.
Under the agreement, the Japan International Cooperation Agency will provide Mongolia with cold chain equipment such as refrigerated vaccine transport vehicles as promptly as possible, according to the government-backed body.
Aside from procuring COVID-19 vaccines, Mongolia and other developing countries are facing distribution issues. Vaccines must be kept at low temperatures when transported and stored, a process known as the cold chain.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (R) and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene pose for a photo during their meeting at the State Guest House in Tokyo on July 22, 2021. (Kyodo)
In a meeting with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in Tokyo on July 22, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene expressed his appreciation for Japan's assistance over the pandemic, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said.
The new aid for Mongolia -- signed between JICA and the Mongolian government in Ulaanbaatar on July 19 -- is part of the "Last One Mile Support," a Japanese government project intended to ensure every country gets vaccinated.
JICA has recently signed similar agreements with Mozambique and Palestine, worth 430 million yen and 897 million yen, respectively.
Japan has been one of the leading contributors to multilateral efforts to ensure equitable delivery of vaccines, especially to the developing world, through such initiatives as the U.N.-backed COVAX global vaccine-sharing program.
However, the establishment of cold chains within developing countries is not always part of the COVAX scheme.
Japan has been promoting Last One Mile Support to complement COVAX, according to government officials.
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