Coal market participants in China are closely monitoring what impact a new outbreak of COVID-19 in Mongolia might have on the country’s coal exports – a crucial concern given that China is the destination of almost all Mongolian coal for export.

Last Thursday, the Ulan Bator government imposed a national lockdown after a locally transmitted COVID-19 case was identified, and as of Monday morning, three new cases had been recorded after 1,818 tests were carried out nationwide, according to the head of Mongolia’s National Center for Communicable Diseases. Mongolia’s efforts since earlier this year had spared the landlocked country the worst of the global pandemic, Mysteel Global notes.

Due to the new wave however, the Mongolian government has temporarily closed some of the country’s checkpoints with Russia, though the major Mongolia-China checkpoints remain opened, Mysteel Global understands from government posts.

“Due to the possible impact to the economy during the pandemic, specialized (virus) inspection agencies at the border are working as quickly and continuously as possible” to detect anyone who might be infected, noted a report by Mongolia’s government-backed Montsame agency on November 14. During last Friday, Mongolia exported 1,425 trucks or 138,602 tonnes of coal to China, according to the news agency’s data.

“Major China-Mongolia border checkpoints for coal trade are still in operation, despite Mongolia’s lockdown, as measures to contain virus have been adopted since Mongolia resumed coal deliveries in late March,” said a Shanghai-based analyst. “However, compared with the peak period over September-October, the delivery volume of Mongolian coal slid recently,” he observed.

Mongolia is one of the key overseas sources of metallurgical coal for Chinese end-users. The country’s coal became more popular among markets in China after the latter tightened restrictions on seaborne coking coal imports including those from Australia, Mysteel Global notes.

Some traders have continued to lift Mongolian coal prices recently after noting firm coking coal demand from Chinese end-users. By November 16, Mysteel’s price assessment for 11% ash, 25% volatile matter and 0.7% sulphur Mongolian coal had increased Yuan 30/tonne ($4.6/t) on week to Yuan 1,080/t including the 13% VAT, hitting a seven-month high.

Written by Sean Xie, xiepy@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com

Gross industrial output reached MNT 13.1 trillion in the first ten months of 2020, decreased by MNT 1.9 trillion (12.5%) from the same period of the previous year, Montsame reports.

This decrease was mainly due to MNT 1.8 trillion (16.3%) decrease in mining and quarrying gross output. However, the electricity, thermal energy, and water supply production output increased by MNT 67.8 billion (7.7%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

By preliminary results, the mining and quarrying gross output reached MNT 9.1 trillion in the first ten months of 2020, decreased by MNT 1.8 trillion (16.3%) from the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly due to the reductions in coal mining and lignite by MNT 2.0 trillion (44.5%), and extraction of crude petroleum by MNT 533.8 billion (62.8%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

On November 16, 2020, Marubeni Corporation (hereinafter, “Marubeni”) reached an agreement with AND Global Pte. Ltd. (hereinafter, “AND Global”), a FinTech solutions developer and provider in Singapore, by which Marubeni will make an equity investment in AND Global by capital increase through third-party allotment.

AND Global is a start-up company that operates its FinTech R&D center in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The company also runs a small ticket lending business with the brand, “LendMN” and an e-wallet service with the brand, “LendMN Wallet”. Additionally, its operating subsidiary, LendMN NBFI JSC was listed on Mongolian Stock Exchange in 2018.

Since Marubeni and AND Global entered into a strategic partnership in April 2020, the two companies have been cooperating to develop new business opportunities and promote AND Global’s FinTech solution service globally. Through this process, Marubeni has grown to believe even more strongly in AND Global’s vision and digital development capability in providing its FinTech service due to its strong management and talented people. As such, Marubeni decided the agreement to strengthen its relationship with AND Global even further by investing in the company and support its further growth in the future. After consummation of the equity subscription, Marubeni, as the largest shareholder of AND Global, will continuously provide necessary support for the company’s global expansion, including deployment of its own employees to AND Global’s group companies and extensive support for business development.

With the coronavirus crisis, and as Digital Transformation becomes a global phenomenon, especially in the consumer business area, significant growth in digital financial services for general consumers is expected. Marubeni strongly believes that AND Global’s FinTech solutions, including its proprietary AI-based credit scoring system and collaboration with external application service providers, has a great potential to serve the increasing global demand and will work together with AND Global to expand its business outside of Mongolia.

Marubeni also believes that AND Global’s experience in operating digital finance service and establishing digital ecosystems with its self-developed technology will be a great help for consumer businesses of the Marubeni Group and partner companies, helping them to improve their current operation and create new businesses in the midst of the aforementioned global trend.

Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. According to the preliminary results, the gross industrial output reached MNT 13.1 trillion in the first ten months of 2020, decreased by MNT 1.9 trillion (12.5%) from the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly due to MNT 1.8 trillion (16.3%) decrease in mining and quarrying gross output. However, the electricity, thermal energy, and water supply production output increased by MNT 67.8 billion (7.7%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

By preliminary results, the mining and quarrying gross output reached MNT 9.1 trillion in the first ten months of 2020, decreased by MNT 1.8 trillion (16.3%) from the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly due to the reductions in coal mining and lignite by MNT 2.0 trillion (44.5%), and extraction of crude petroleum by MNT 533.8 billion (62.8%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

In October 2020, the gross industrial output reached MNT 1.9 trillion, increased by MNT 235.9 billion (14.3%) from the previous month. This increase was mainly due to MNT 180.8 billion (14.8%) increase in mining and quarrying output.

By the preliminary results of the mining and quarrying sector, in the first ten months of 2020, extraction of iron ore and gold increased by 4.7-31.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. In the manufacturing sector, the production of bottled water, soft drink, juice, alcoholic beverage, alcohol, wheat flour, cement, milk, and coal briquette grew by 2.4-90.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. Also, the face mask production rose by 11.8 times more compared to the same period of the previous year.

However, in the mining and quarrying sector, extractions of brown coal, fluor spar, copper concentrate, hard coal, and crude oil decreased by 4.5-47.4%. In the manufacturing industry, productions of lime, meat, combed cashmere, copper cathode, cashmere products, concentrated coal metal steed and cigarettes decreased by 3.7-50.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

By the preliminary results of the first ten months of 2020, the sales of industrial output reached MNT 15.3 trillion, decreased by MNT 1.9 trillion (11.2%) compared to the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly resulted from MNT 1.7 trillion (14.4%) decrease in sales of mining and quarrying output and MNT 316.4 billion (7.2%) decrease in sales of manufacturing output.

The sales of mining and quarrying output decreased by MNT 1.7 trillion (14.4%) compared to the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly resulted MNT 1.8 trillion (41.8%) decrease in sales of coal mining output and MNT 508.9 billion (63.0%) decrease in sales of crude petroleum output, respectively.

In the total sales of industrial output, MNT 8.7 trillion (56.8%) was export, of which MNT 7.3 trillion (83.8%) was export of mining and quarrying output. Of the total MNT 7.3 trillion export of mining and quarrying output, 62.0% was metal ores, 32.0% was coal and lignite, 4.1% was crude petroleum, and 1.9% was other mining quarrying output.

Source: National Statistics Office

Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. According to the preliminary results in the first ten months of 2020, the total revenue of the general government budget was MNT 8.3 trillion. The equilibrated revenue of the general government budget was MNT 7.6 trillion and 91.5% of the total revenue of the general government budget. On the other hand, the total expenditure and net lending was MNT 10.8 trillion in the first ten months of 2020, resulting in a deficit of MNT 3.3 trillion in the equilibrated balance.

In October 2020, the total equilibrated revenue and grants of the general government budget was MNT 0.9 trillion, decreased by MNT 147.1 billion or 14.7%, the total expenditure and net lending was MNT 1.4 trillion, increased by MNT 289.8 billion or 26.7% compared to the previous month.

In October 2020, the equilibrated balance of the general government budget was in deficit of 519.7 billion, increased by MNT 437.0 billion, or 6.3 times compared to the previous month.

The General government budget revenue was comprised of 83.1% of tax revenue, 8.4% of non-tax revenue, 8.0% of the future heritage fund, and 0.5% of the stabilization fund.

the first ten months of 2020, tax revenue reached MNT 6.9 trillion, decreased by MNT 1.1 trillion, or 14.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. This decrease was mainly due to MNT 410.4 billion or 19.0% decrease in income tax revenue, MNT 318.4 billion or 20.2% decrease in social security revenue, MNT 168.5 billion or 8.4% decrease in value-added tax revenue, MNT 133.2 billion or 17.5% decrease in other taxes revenue, MNT 84.3 billion or 11.5% decrease in excise tax revenue and MNT 32.2 billion or 4.9% decrease in foreign activity revenue.

In the first 10 months of 2020, general government budget expenditure and net lending was MNT 10.8 trillion, increased by MNT 2.5 trillion or 30.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. This increase was primarily affected by MNT 2.1 trillion or 32.0% increase in current expenditure and MNT 587.7 billion or 37.6% increase in capital expenditure, though net lending decreased by MNT 166.3 billion or 84.8%, compared to the same period of previous year.

In the current expenditure, 44.8% was current transfers, 42.4% was expenditure on goods and services, 9.3% was interest payment and 3.5% was subsidies.

Source: National Statistics Office

Hong Kong (CNN Business)China has just joined forces with more than a dozen countries across the Asia Pacific region to sign a huge free trade deal nearly a decade in the making.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership spans 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world's population, according to a joint statement released by the nations on Sunday, when the deal was signed. Their combined GDP totals roughly $26 trillion and they account for nearly 28% of global trade based on 2019 data.

The deal includes several of the region's heaviest economic hitters aside from China, including Japan and South Korea. New Zealand and Australia are also partners, as are Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.

The trade agreement was first proposed in 2012 as a way to create one of the world's largest free-trade zones.

It's tough to gauge the immediate economic significance of the deal. The members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — a group of 10 countries that signed the agreement — said that it would eliminate tariffs and quotas on 65% of the goods that are traded in the region.

The partner countries also noted the importance of the agreement as the world tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, saying in a joint statement that the deal "will play an important role in building the region's resilience through inclusive and sustainable post-pandemic economic recovery process."

"Its symbolic value has always exceeded its actual value," said William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who served for 15 years as president of the National Foreign Trade Council. He pointed out that India opted out of the deal late last year, lessening the importance of the agreement in terms of actual trade.

Reinsch said, though, that the agreement could have consequences in the long term, and added that China's involvement "is a sign of its willingness to play a constructive role, despite its aggressive actions in the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and elsewhere."

China and Australia, for example, have been caught up in trade disputes lately, but that hasn't stopped them pressing ahead with the RCEP.

"Both countries see huge benefits from their deeper economic integration with other Asian countries," said Murray Hiebert, senior associate of the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS. "The RCEP could potentially provide Beijing and Canberra another platform where they could discuss and hammer out their differences."

Others noted that the deal was further evidence of Asia's growing power. Economists at HSBC said Sunday that the agreement "signals that Asia keeps pushing ahead with trade liberalization even as other regions have become more skeptical."

"It may reinforce a trend that's been already underway for decades: that the global center of economic gravity keeps pushing relentlessly to the East," they wrote in a research note.

It's not clear whether the deal will have an impact on the most important global trading relationship of all: That between the United States and China, who have been fighting over trade and related issues for the last few years.

"Whether it means a shift in the regional dynamic in favor of China depends on the US response," Reinsch said of the new trade deal. He pointed to the importance of the election of Joe Biden, who will succeed President Donald Trump in January.

"If the US continues to ignore or bully the countries there, the influence pendulum will swing toward China," he added. "If Biden has a credible plan to restore the US presence and influence in the region, then the pendulum could swing back our way."

— Jake Kwon and Akanksha Sharma contributed to this report.

(CNN)A Maryland businessman paid Harvard University's former fencing coach at least $1.5 million in bribes, including payments for a car and a house in the suburbs, to get his sons admitted to the Ivy League school, federal prosecutors said in a criminal complaint released Monday.

Jie "Jack" Zhao, 61, and Peter Brand, 67, were arrested Monday and charged with conspiracy to commit federal programs bribery for the alleged agreement, the US Attorney's Office in the District of Massachusetts said.

Zhao, of Potomac, Maryland, is the CEO of telecom company iTalk Global Communications. He was scheduled to appear Monday in federal court in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Brand was Harvard's men's and women's fencing coach from 1999 until last year, when he was fired by the university following an investigation spurred by reporting from The Boston Globe on his suspiciously expensive house sale. He will appear in federal court in Boston on Monday afternoon.

The arrests are just the latest salvo in the sprawling college admissions scam, first revealed in March 2019, in which rich parents of college applicants used their wealth to cheat on standardized tests, bribe sports coaches and lie about the payments.

"This case is part of our long-standing effort to expose and deter corruption in college admissions," said US Attorney Andrew E. Lelling. "Millions of teenagers strive for college admission every year. We will do our part to make that playing field as level as we possibly can."

An attorney for Zhao denied the charges in an email on Monday.

"Jack Zhao's children were academic stars in high school and internationally competitive fencers who obtained admission to Harvard on their own merit," attorney Bill Weinreb said in a statement. "Both of them fenced for Harvard at the Division One level throughout their college careers. Mr. Zhao adamantly denies these charges and will vigorously contest them in court."

An attorney for Brand did not immediately respond to a request for comment. When Brand was fired in 2019, a lawyer said his client had done nothing wrong.

The conspiracy charge comes with a possible sentence of up to five years in prison. Other parents who were charged with similar counts and pleaded guilty, such as actress Lori Loughlin, have generally been sentenced to several months in prison.

How the scheme allegedly worked

College coaches do not explicitly decide who gets accepted into the university, but their recommendations to the admissions office about certain recruited athletes carry powerful influence.

The complaint alleges Zhao made a series of payments totaling $1.5 million to Brand in exchange for the coach recruiting Zhao's two sons to the fencing team, thereby facilitating their acceptance to the prestigious university.

"Jack doesn't need to take me anywhere and his boys don't have to be great fencers," Brand allegedly told a co-conspirator in May 2012, according to the complaint. "All I need is a good incentive to recruit them[.] You can tell him that[.]"

In February 2013, Zhao made a purported donation of $1 million to a fencing charity operated by a co-conspirator, prosecutors say. Zhao's older son was admitted to Harvard as a fencing recruit in December 2013 and matriculated to the university in the fall of 2014, and shortly afterward, the conspirator's fencing charity paid $100,000 to Brand's charitable foundation, prosecutors say.

The older son graduated in 2018, according to The Boston Globe.

As Brand recruited Zhao's younger son, the businessman made a series of payments to Brand or for his personal benefit, prosecutors say. Zhao allegedly paid for Brand's car, made college tuition payments for Brand's son, paid the mortgage on Brand's house in Needham, Massachusetts, and then bought the house for well above market value, prosecutors say.

The payments allowed Brand to buy a more expensive residence in nearby Cambridge that Zhao then paid to renovate, the complaint states. Zhao's younger son began attending Harvard in 2017, and the complaint alleges Brand did not tell the university about the payments when recruiting the sons.

The Needham house payment drew particular attention from Harvard and federal investigators. Brand sold the home to Zhao for $989,500, according to the deed, almost twice what a tax document said it was worth. Zhao then sold the Needham property about 17 months later at a loss of over $300,000.

Following the sale of his Needham home, Brand purchased a condominium in Cambridge. Documents obtained by CNN show the Cambridge property was originally listed for $989,000 -- just $500 less than what Zhao paid the Needham home. Brand bought the Cambridge condo for about $300,000 over the asking price.

CNN's Augusta Anthony contributed to this report.

The world’s top metals consumer, China, is considering opening up its commodities markets, as the government wants increased pricing power in the markets it dominates. Copper is the major target of the country’s ambitions.

From Thursday, overseas investors will be able to trade copper futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. The contract size will be the same as that intended for local traders, but will exclude tax and customs duty, and will be delivered into bonded warehouses, helping it compete actively with the London Metal Exchange.

According to BMO Capital Markets, China now accounts for more than half the world’s copper consumption, up from 39 percent in 2010 and 12 percent in 2000.

The country’s recovery from the coronavirus crisis saw copper imports top two million tons in the third quarter.

Official data showed that imports of copper by China in the first nine months of 2020 were up 41 percent from a year earlier, at 4.99 million tons. According to the General Administration of Customs, that is already more than the 4.98 million tons China imported in the whole of 2019.

Global copper prices have reached a two-year record high thanks in part to the speedy recovery of China’s economy in the post pandemic era. Industry experts suggest that China’s expanding power and construction sectors will continue to support copper demand and become the major driver of global copper consumption growth.

“This is thanks to healthy consumption in China due to an economic stimulus package and demand from the construction industry, as well as improving market sentiment,” international credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings said in a recent statement.

China has already allowed foreigners to trade oil and iron ore on its commodities market. In March 2018, it successfully launched a yuan-denominated crude-oil contract. A subsequent push to let foreigners trade iron ore in Dalian established a global benchmark. Analysts say copper could be an even bigger success.

On November 12, the Mongolian State Emergency Committee announced a full curfew for five days in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. All citizens have been asked to stay home and leave only to buy food and essentials. All businesses have been closed except news media, utilities and essential city services, gas stations, supermarkets, companies engaged in food production, banks, and others. Citizens have been urged to wear masks and gloves when outside.

The measures came after a truck drive tested positive for COVID-19 after 21 days of quarantine. Every truck driver has to undergo quarantine after hauling cargo from Russia or China, Mongolia’s two neighbors. During the quarantine, according to health officials, the truck driver was tested three times for COVID-19. All three tests came back negative. Health officials have since acknowledged a breach of protocol in the quarantine measures during his stay in the hotel.

After quarantine, the driver watched a concert and visited various stores. Government officials are now working day and night to trace all the people who have been in contact with the individual. So far more than 3,000 people have been asked to self-isolate and get tested for COVID-19. So far four family members of the original case, and two friends of a family member, have tested positive.

At the same time a 74-year-old woman, along with her daughter-in-law and granddaughter, in Selenge province, neighboring Russia, has also tested positive. Just before being diagnosed with COVID-19, the daughter-in-law visited Darkhan city, Mongolia’s second largest city, where she visited a shopping mall and playground. It is not clear how the family got infected. It appears this case is not related to the truck driver in Ulaanbaatar. After those cases were reported, more than one hundred children were tested for COVID-19; all the tests came back negative. The authorities are working franticly to trace all the contacts. Darkhan city has been put under a curfew as well.

Mongolia as of November 16 had reported 431 cases of COVID-19, of which 328 people have recovered. The country has not seen any fatalities linked with the pandemic. Before November 12, all of Mongolia’s cases were imported from abroad via repatriated citizens.

Mongolia instituted early measures in combatting COVID-19. From February 12, the government closed all schools and mandated that all citizens wear masks. The government even suspended celebrations of Tsagaan Sar, Mongolia’s Lunar New Year as a precaution. The early measures have paid off with a low case count and zero COVID-19 deaths. Now, with the first cases of local transmission, Mongolia’s government is moving decisively to respond.

Anandsaikhan Nyamdavaa is an independent consultant based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Mongolia has lost its status as a country free of community transmissions of coronavirus (COVID-19) and on November 13 entered a five-day lockdown, extended on November 16 until December 1.

A truck driver back from Russia, who underwent a 21-day mandatory isolation, nevertheless appears to have infected his wife in Ulaanbaatar. The State Emergency Commission is facing questions as to why his infection, discovered on November 9, was not detected during the quarantine period that ended on November 6.

A second community transmission involves a 74-year-old woman, along with her daughter-in-law and granddaughter in the northern part of Mongolia, in Selenge province. Health Minister Togtmol Munkhsaikhan said there was no known connection with the truck driver or his wife.

As of November 15, nine people in Mongolia were recorded as infected following contact with the driver.

A whistleblower, who was quarantined in the same quarantine facility, Enkhsaran, as the truck driver claimed to local press that there was a cluster of infections in the quarantine facility and that he caught the virus almost on the last day of his 21 days of quarantine. Munkhbat and many others see the situation as down to government negligence and say officials have not been entirely straight with people on the pattern of the virus spread.

On November 15, the health minister stated that there have been 40 cases connected to the set quarantine facility, stating there were three clusters of COVID in Mongolia—linked to the truck driver, the Selenge province woman and the quarantine facility.

Since April, citizens who have been repatriated have criticized the quarantine facilities as lacking any form of proper cleanliness and as not being accommodating. People who were quarantined demanded that the quarantine period be reduced to 14 days from 21 days and that the 14-day home isolation be scrapped. The government subsequently abolished the 14-day home quarantine.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organisation, praised Mongolia on Twitter last week for “showing us that by following proven public health advice we can stop this virus from spreading.”

The country has not recorded a single coronavirus death.

In their scramble to contain the virus after the first local transmissions were confirmed, authorities sent out jumbled orders, such as on what transport means to use, but were forced to retreat on some instructions after a public outcry grew intense. People complained for instance that there was no communication of who should take care of the children of essential workers. They said it was as if the government had no contingency plan for a virus outbreak.

Trade vulnerabilities

Under the lockdown, border points dealing with trade with Russia will provide limited access or will be shut down entirely from November 16 to January 18, while oil imports will only enter Mongolia once every two days from Russia. In terms of China, Mongolia will keep its trade routes open. An insider from China's coal trade expressed worries that Mongolia will close its borders soon.

Local mining companies are worried that if Mongolia isn’t successful in containing the virus, China might close its borders or limit trade. This would undo the success it had in terms of exporting coal to China since August, helped by China’s squeezing of coal imports from Australia, with which it is involved in diplomatic spats. In September, Mongolia overtook Australia as the number country exporting coal to China.

If China closes its borders with Mongolia it will heavily impact the state budget. Mongolia’s parliament scrambled to ratify the 2021 state budget on November 13.

One out of three mining operations might be in jeopardy if the virus situation worsens. Most of the coal mines that export to China are located in southern Mongolia. The Rio Tinto-financed Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine and other gold and precious metal exploration mining sites are also located to the south; however, the Erdenet Mining corporation, which produces 22.23mn tonnes of ore per year, 126,700 tonnes of copper and 1954 tonnes of molybdenum, could face closures as it is located next to the province where the second virus cluster was recorded.

In 2019, trade with China accounted for 90% of Mongolia’s export revenue, but Russia accounted for just 0.9%. Mongolia had a trade surplus of $3bn in 2019, but a trade balance deficit of $915.5mn with Russia as part of that, according to Mongolia’s national statistics office.

So, the border closure with Russia might not mean much in terms of Mongolia’s bottom line, but a border closure with China would greatly impact Mongolia’s economy.

by Anand Tumurtogoo