“Mongolia is landlocked but not mindlocked,” remarked Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene as he visited Washington DC this week and met with US Vice President Kamala Harris.

Oyun-Erdene appeared very eager to work with the Americans on a wide range of issues and expressed gratitude for the expansion of educational exchanges and the sending of additional US teachers to Mongolia as part of the Strategic Third Neighbour Partnership between the two nations.

Speaking at the White House stood alongside Harris, he said: “In the 1990s, the people of Mongolia voted for democracy and the market economy and we are very proud that the Americans regard us as an oasis of democracy. For us, the United States is not only our strategic third neighbour, but also the guiding North Star for our democratic journey.”

During the visit, the US and Mongolia pledged closer economic engagement and the strengthening of cooperation in the areas of security, outer space and critical minerals, including rare earth elements (REEs). Amongst various other agreements, they entered into an "Open Skies" civil aviation accord, with direct Mongolia-US flights to commence next year.

Oyun-Erdene was set to follow up his visit to Washington with a tour of Nasa, while he also mentioned that he was planning another trip to the US, during which he intended to hold discussions with business magnate and investor Elon Musk in California. The discussions would likely focus on potential investment and collaboration opportunities with Tesla in the realm of electric vehicles (EVs) and Space X in space exploration.

Ulaanbaatar has already authorised Space X to provide internet services in Mongolia. Musk, meanwhile, has expressed an interest in facilitating a manned mission to Mars, and Mongolia wants to help.

Mongolia’s Gobi Desert has an environment very similar to that of Mars, with its ferrous, reddish soil and big temperature swings, from +45C during the day to -45C at night. Mars V, a Mongolian company, headed by Erdenebold Sukhbaatar, plans to build a Mars analogue training centre in the desert. It is hoped that cooperation with the Americans could make Mongolia an integral player in the space travel industry. The Mars analogue would be open to space programmes from around the world.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III also met with the Mongolian PM for a discussion on security cooperation between the United States Army Pacific Command (USARPAC) and the Mongolian Armed Forces (MAF).

Last month, Mongolia hosted the Americans in a joint training exercise dubbed Khaan Quest. The MAF have also sent soldiers to international peacekeeping operations, in which they served alongside American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. More military education and training, as well as equipment, will now be provided to MAF by the US.

Mongolia’s relationship with the United States is critical to Ulaanbaatar, given that the country is encircled by two big power neighbours, Russia and China. Generally, Mongolian people distrust China, while the older generation has a bit of nostalgia for the days of closer ties with Russia.

Economically, Mongolia is extremely dependent on China. That often makes it difficult for Mongolia to resist Beijing’s influence.

Historically, Mongolian leaders have managed to balance relations with Moscow with closeness to China, and vice versa, preserving their nation’s integrity. At the same time, Mongolia is always looking to strengthen relations with “third neighbours” such as the US, Japan, South Korea and India, as a way of offsetting Chinese and Russian influence.

Ulaanbaatar often refers to the US as an “important strategic third neighbour”. It signed a strategic partnership with Washington back in 2019.

The war in Ukraine has put Mongolia in a difficult position. With respect to relations with Beijing and Moscow, Mongolia and the Central Asian republics have not condemned the war. But the conflict has caused a marked shift across the region, away from Russia and towards China, as the former Soviet satellites do not wish to in anyway become regarded as a possible next point of Russian expansion.

While toeing the line between China and Moscow, Mongolia is also being careful not to damage its relationship with the US or other third neighbours. The meeting between Harris and Oyun-Erdene comes at a time when Mongolia wants and needs to intensify its third-neighbour relations, particularly with the United States.

On the US side, the meeting is fortuitous because Washington does not want China’s growing influence to squeeze the US out of Mongolia and the wider region. Furthermore, Mongolia is the perfect geographic location from which to monitor both Beijing and Moscow.

In June, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on securing reliable mineral supply chains. On the agenda this time was cooperation on rare earth minerals, which play a vital role in national security. Such critical raw materials (CRM) are required for the manufacturing of advanced weaponry, space applications and computer chips. They are also crucial to achieving climate goals as they are needed for the production of electric cars, wind turbines and solar panels.

Currently, China, which possesses 36% of the world’s rare earth minerals, controls over 70% of the world's REE extractive capacity, as well as 90% of processing capacity. Mongolia has 61.4mn tonnes of copper and 3.1mn tonnes of rare-earth minerals, access to which could decrease US rare-earth dependence on China.

Given that Mongolia is landlocked, it is difficult for the country to export anything by rail or road without Russia or China’s agreement. Seeking a mitigation strategy, a source at the US State Department told Reuters that the US was exploring “very creative ways” that would enable Mongolia to get its extracted rare earth minerals to world markets beyond Russia and China.

Oyun-Erdene also met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss enhancing democratic values. Mongolia is often talked of as an island of democracy as Russia and China are, effectively, single-party autocracies, while the nearby Central Asian “Stans” have low-quality democracies.

Supporting democracy is talked of by diplomats as the essential path via which the US can forge closer ties to Mongolia. And for that democracy to be free and meaningful, the US must help Mongolia develop economically, so that it will be less beholden to Russia and China.

By Antonio Graceffo in Washington DC

The 6th Meeting of the ICAPP Youth Wing and the 7th Meeting of the ICAPP Women’s Wing of the International Conference of Asian Political Parties (ICAPP) is to take place in Ulaanbaatar on August 4-7.

The 6th Meeting of the ICAPP Youth Wing will be held under the theme “Youth Participation in Social Dialogue for Social and Economic Progress After the Pandemic” while the theme of the 7th Meeting of the ICAPP Women’s Wing will be “Supporting Women’s Leadership for Making the Post-pandemic Revival Gender Sensitive”. In other words, issues on ways to increase youth and women’s participation in politics, and possibilities of economic support to women and youth after the pandemic will be the main topics of the meeting discussions and the meeting gives opportunity to the participants to learn from experiences of political parties of other countries.

Representatives of 28 political parties from 21 countries have arrived in Mongolia to participate in the meeting, which was postponed twice due to the pandemic. Besides representatives from Asian countries such as Russia, China, South Korea, Turkiye, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iraq, Georgia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Bangladesh, political parties’ representatives of Ghana from Africa, and Spain from Europe came to take part in the Meeting.

ICAPP was launched in Manila, Philippines in September 2000 to promote exchanges and cooperation among political parties with various ideologies in Asia and Oceania. As of 2018, more than 350 political parties from 52 countries in the region have joined the ICAPP. As political parties join the ICAPP regardless of their political and ideological backgrounds, the Mongolian People's Party (MPRP), Democratic Party, and HUN Party are the members from Mongolia. The Mongolian People's Party has been actively participating in the ICAPP activities since 2004 and was elected and has been working as a member of the Standing Committee since 2013.

Park Ro-byug, Secretary General of the ICAPP visited Mongolia in June 2019. During the visit, he met with MPRP Secretary General D. Amarbayasgalan, where the MPRP General Secretary made the initiative to organize the 6th Meeting of the ICAPP Youth Wing and 7th Meeting of the ICAPP Women’s Wing in Ulaanbaatar. The initiative was approved by the ICAPP Standing Committee at its 33rd meeting held in Malaysia on December 13, 2019.

In our latest exclusive, we sit down with Marie Favereau, an Associate Professor of History at the Paris Nanterre University. Favereau has recently penned a riveting new book entitled "The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the World"

“The Horde was neither a conventional empire nor a dynastic state, even less a nation-state...” The opening line of "The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the World" by Marie Favereau is the source of this intriguing quote. You might be pondering, "what exactly is a Horde?" Favereau provides an enlightening explanation: “It was a great nomadic regime born from the Mongol expansion of the thirteenth century, an equestrian regime that became so powerful it ruled virtually all of today’s Russia, including western Siberia, for almost three centuries.”

Marie Favereau is an associate professor of History at Paris Nanterre University, member of the French Institute for Oriental Archaeology, and member of the major project "Nomadic Empire” (https://nomadicempires.history. ox.ac.uk/) at the University of Oxford.

With an engaging narrative and meticulous research, "The Horde" by Marie Favereau presents an intriguing exploration of the Mongol Empire. The book, filled with compelling details and captivating insights, tells the story of the Mongols and their transformative influence on global history.

Contextually, the roots of the Golden Horde lie in the events following Zuchi's passing in the 1240s. His descendants, warriors, and their kin began a journey to an area between the Volga- Urals and the Black Sea, known for its mild climate. Here, a unique Mongol state, separate from the original Mongol Empire, was born. The initial steps involved setting up an administrative structure. The Mongols, steadfastly adhering to their cultural customs, firmly established themselves in this newly acquired territory, forsaking any aspirations of returning. Over three decades, the population exploded from a humble few thousand to numerous hundreds of thousands, aiding the creation of a sophisticated social structure aimed at building an autonomous empire. When visualized on a modern map, the scope of the Golden Horde would cover the lands of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Russia, including Tatarstan and Crimea.

Favereau's book is not just a historical account but also an investigative masterpiece that delves into the heart of the Mongol Empire. It takes readers on a vivid journey across the vast landscapes of Asia and Europe, painting a vibrant picture of the world as it was under the rule of the Golden Horde. The book unfolds the might and majesty of the Mongol Empire, which propelled a new era of trade, diplomacy, cultural exchange, and warfare.

"The Horde" challenges conventional perceptions about the Mongols, often depicted as savage conquerors. Instead, it introduces readers to their sophisticated political and economic systems, progressive policies, and tolerance towards different cultures and religions. Favereau's book showcases how the Golden Horde was instrumental in shaping geopolitical boundaries, influencing trade routes, and fostering cultural exchanges between East and West. It emphasizes that the Mongols were not just ruthless warriors but also skilled administrators and shrewd diplomats.

Beyond being a comprehensive historical narrative, "The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the World" is a meticulous study that combines archival sources with modern scholarly research. It unravels the complexity of the Mongol Empire and its lasting impact on world history. The book is a must-read for history buffs and anyone interested in understanding how a nomadic tribe from the steppes of Mongolia established one of the largest empires in history.

Marie Favereau's book serves as a testament to the enduring legacy of the Mongol Empire and its Golden Horde. It reminds us that history is not merely about dates and events but also about understanding complex socio-political dynamics that shape our present world. It imparts valuable lessons about leadership, tolerance, diplomacy, and resilience that are as relevant today as they were during the reign of the Mongols. So, whether you are an avid historian or a casual reader looking to venture into world history, "The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the World" promises an enlightening and captivating journey.

Interview with Marie Favereau

-As a researcher of the Golden Horde and the Mongol Empire, could you delve deeper into the core aspects of your research?

-My research is concentrated on the exploration of the Mongol Empire, with unique emphasis on the Golden Horde. These subject piques my interest due to the transformative impact the Mongols had when they founded the Golden Horde. They implemented their distinct governance style, worldviews, language, culture, commerce, communication methods, and religion. In essence, they transferred the nomadic lifestyle, a hallmark of Mongolia, to Europe. The transmission of this extraordinary nomadic culture to Europe via the Mongols is a captivating feature that I find singularly appealing.

The cultural effect and additional values that the Mongols transported to Europe lingered for three hundred years and acted as the basis for further advancement within the Golden Horde. With this understanding, I have chosen to compose a book that delves into this subject.

It's prevalent, particularly in Europe, to concentrate on the historical narrative of the rise and fall of the Mongol Empire. Nevertheless, my research highlights the Golden Horde-an influential state born from the extension of the Mongol Empire. This state endured across Eurasia for 300 years and its legacy had a considerable influence in the formation of contemporary governing structures, aiding in the progression of history and culture, and the establishment of specific territories and boundaries. My aim is to share these discoveries grounded on factual proof.

-How did the influence of the Mongol Empire and the Golden Horde shape the XVI century and contribute to transformative global discoveries, ultimately shaping the modern world?

-The Mongol Empire, which existed from the XIII to the XV centuries, holds a significant place in world history. As historical events unfold, one period often influences the next. Therefore, the Mongol Empire's impact during the XIII-XV centuries naturally extended into the XVI century. It was during this time that the Renaissance emerged in Europe. The Renaissance, a period of great cultural and intellectual development, played a crucial role in shaping the world we inhabit today. Hence, the gradual progression of historical stages, including the Mongol Empire, the XVI century influence, and the Renaissance, paved the way for the new era we find ourselves in today.

The Mongols' profound influence on European society is a key factor in the advent of the Renaissance. They introduced novel systems of organization, traditions, culture, language, and religion, all of which had considerable impact on Europeans. This influence incited an era of intellectual curiosity and openmindedness within the region. Europeans started to prioritize education and knowledge, laying the groundwork for future ambitions and objectives. Absent the knowledge, free trade, and diverse viewpoints brought by the Mongols, it's debatable whether the Renaissance or any subsequent new age would have come into existence. I have underscored the importance of this historical link in my book, amplifying the notion that the Mongols' powerful influence is at the root of contemporary European development.

-Could you elaborate on the primary motivations and strategic objectives behind the Mongol invasions?

-Within the realm of Russian historical studies, Mongolians have frequently been depicted as barbaric intruders and destroyers. This perspective has long formed the basis of the historical account of Mongol invasions. Nonetheless, I argue that this interpretation is not accurate. The underlying objective of the Mongol invasions was not to annihilate or demolish. Rather, the Mongols intended to implement a centralized governance and control over their nomadic populace, thereby instating order globally and creating a secure, efficient framework for international relations, economy, and commerce. The emergence of the Golden Horde state is attributed to this policy.

Throughout both the Mongol Empire's invasion and the Golden Horde's reign, the Mongols did not adopt a strategy of expansion and domination through destruction and slaughter. Instead, the Mongols, upon establishing order in the countries they sub[1]jugated, aimed to bring together diverse populations of varying ethnicities, cultures, and religions. They accorded respect and recognition to the fundamental culture and religion of the conquered territories, permitting the inhabitants to go on with their lives unimpeded. Trade engagements were carried out without unnecessary hurdles.

This strategy of preserving order, honoring a multitude of cultures and religions, and facilitating unhindered trade has resulted in the term "Pax Mongolica" being associated with this era in global history. This term embodies the relative peace and stability that existed under Mongol dominion, promoting interconnectivity and affluence across various regions.

-Reflecting on the intriguing timeline of the Golden Horde, which remarkably outlasted even the Mongol Empire by clocking in three centuries of existence–what do you think were the key factors or strategies that contributed to its longevity?

-In my view, the extraordinary length of the Golden Horde's reign, exceeding 300 years, can be attributed to two primary factors. The first pertains to the establishment of robust mutual trade and economic networks during the rule of Zuchi, which was integral to their enduring presence. The strategic geopolitical positioning served as a crucial bridge between Europe and Asia and linked the South to the North. The Golden Horde's strategy of intertwining diplomacy with commerce and market systems had a significant impact on its sustained existence.

The second factor is the inclusive and unbiased diplomatic approach the Golden Horde utilized towards regions under its rule and neighboring territories. It did not discriminate based on nationality, ethnicity, or faith. Indeed, the Horde incorporated a diverse populace of Christians and Muslims. The policy of the Golden Horde to accept anyone who pledged loyalty to it acted as a magnet that attracted and unified a multitude of peoples and nations, encouraging expansion and progress. These combined aspects facilitated the Golden Horde's survival for over three centuries.

-Can you elucidate on the key factors that precipitated the downfall of the Golden Horde?

-The decline and disintegration of the Golden Horde can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the Mongol Empire's highly interconnected trade and diplomacy with the rest of the world played a significant role. However, during the second part of the 14th century, a devastating plague pandemic occurred, affecting the Golden Horde's main trade partners and resulting in a significant loss of life. Although the Mongols themselves suffered from the plague to a lesser extent due to their nomadic lifestyle, their trade partners, upon whom they relied heavily, were greatly affected.

The rise of the Ottoman Empire in the 15th century further contributed to the Golden Horde's decline. The Ottomans gained control over the Black Sea, a crucial gateway connecting the Golden Horde to Europe, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean area. By blocking the Black Sea, the Ottomans disrupted the Golden Horde's trade routes and hampered their economic activities.

Furthermore, the decline of the Mongol Empire, including the collapse of the Yuan Dynasty and the Il khans, had a profound impact on the Golden Horde. The diminishing connections between regions due to the contraction of the Mongol Empire disrupted the social space of the Golden Horde, making it increasingly difficult to maintain trade and diplomatic relations.

The decline of their empire also led to a loss of connections through means such as marriage, which previously facilitated exchanges between the East and the West.

In summary, the decline and disintegration of the Golden Horde can be attributed to multiple interconnected factors. These and their control over the Black Sea, the decline of the Mongol Empire and the disruption of connections with other regions, and the overall decline in trade and economic relations due to external pressures. These challenges forced the Golden Horde to adapt and ultimately contributed to their decline as an influential power.

-In the intricate task of defining the Empire, what obstacles did you grapple with? How did your involvement with the 'Nomadic Empire” project and the intellectual exchange with scholars at Oxford University catalyze in overcoming these challenges?

-Before I began my research on the Mongol Empire, I had already published books, particularly on the history of Egypt, relationship between the Mamluks, the Sultanate in Egypt and Syria. However, I had a strong desire to write a book specifically about the Mongol Empire and the Golden Horde, catering to the needs of students who would benefit from a handbook.

The challenge arose when I tried to define this unique empire to others, including colleagues focused on Western topics. They would question and argue that the definition did not fit the conventional definition of an empire. The organization and structure were different, making it dif­ficult to convince them. However, while at Oxford, I had the fortune of meeting scholars who were experts in the study of nomadic powers. One academic, whose area of expertise was American Indians, brought to light the existence of a noteworthy empire in 19th century America – the Comanche Empire. This comparison led us to recognize that the problem was rooted in the interpretation of an empire derived from studies on the Roman Empire or stationary agricultural empires. We were dealing with an entirely different form of power, prompting us to abandon the conventional definition in favor of our own.

Hence, I decided to maintain the term "Horde" in my work, as it holds great importance in highlighting the distinct nature of this nomadic power, without any equivalent in the Western context. Oxford played a crucial role in deepening my understanding and providing substantial support throughout the writing process of this book.

-What are the main areas of interest in your ongoing research and what are your objectives within those areas?

-“Research is a constant endeavor, and it feels like this is just the beginning.”

Firstly, I’m interested in investigating the link between the Golden Horde and the Mongol Empire. Secondly, while Chinese researchers are delving into the history of the Yuan Dynasty and Russian researchers are examining the Russian Empire, I hope to bridge the gap between these researchers and foster a collaborative research community that amalgamates ideas and promotes a unified approach to individual studies. For instance, this collaboration could provide insights into the connections between the histories of the Yuan Dynasty, the Russian Empire, and the Golden Horde.

Thirdly, I've been gathering information from Turkish archives that stretch back to the Golden Horde's era. I'm curious to find out if the terminology associated with the Golden Horde corresponds to the Mongolian language of that period. This requires a thorough analysis of which words correlate and which do not, as well as understanding the reasons for these discrepancies. Presenting these findings accurately in the context of world history is a formidable challenge.

Lastly, I plan to extend my research on the long-lasting impact of the Mongol Empire and the Golden Horde. My study focuses on the historical examination of the Mongol Empire with a specific emphasis on the Golden Horde. Consequently, it encompasses not only an exploration of the Mongol Empire and the Golden Horde but also an investigation into the broader history of the Mongols.

***

In conclusion, she stressed that her main goal in undertaking historical research is to enhance public understanding that history is more than just written records destined for oblivion. Rather, she views history as a continuous link connecting the past, present, and future. Indeed, history acts as the essential strand that intertwines the stories of the past, present, and future. As a result, she spoke of her commitment to in-depth investigation of the significant inf­luence of history on people's lives, both now and in times to come.

S.Byambatsogt, the Minister of Road and Transport Development, reported, “In 2024, a direct flight from Ulaanbaatar to any city of the U.S will be available. Currently, it takes at least 24-48 hours to fly from Ulaanbaatar to the United States. After having direct flight, the flight time can be reduced by 2-3 times”.

L.Oyun-Erdene, the Prime Minister of Mongolia, is paying an official visit to the United States these days. And within the framework of the visit, the two parties have agreed to cooperate in the transportation sector. During today’s meeting, the Memorandum on Cooperation on Issues of Mutual Interest in the Transport Sector was signed.

By having a direct flight, it will be possible to operate flights twice a week, and economic, educational and business relations between the two countries will be revived and investments will increase.

In connection with the direct flight, MIAT company is leasing two planes and will pay USD 800,000 per month. The first of the two planes will land in Ulaanbaatar on August 10, while the second plane will arrive within the first quarter of 2024.

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Mongolia has settled almost all of its outstanding tax issues with Rio Tinto over development of the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and is confident that the remaining issues will be resolved, the country's prime minister told Reuters.

The partners spent years mired in a tussle over development of the Gobi Desert mine which is the country's biggest foreign investment and is set to become the world's fourth largest copper mine by 2030 as demand heats up for the metal key to the energy transition.

A resolution to the outstanding tax issues would avoid an arbitration process and would signify the restoration of relations with one of Rio's top partners that were at one stage so poor they threatened to derail the mine's development.

"In the past, we had more than 10 issues that we had to address with Rio Tinto on the Oyu Tolgoi project, but we have successfully resolved more than 90% of them," Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene said in an interview during a visit to Washington.

"There are still some remaining issues but we are confident that we can continue our talks and discussions with our investors so that we can resolve them," he added.

Rio Tinto last year bought out majority mine owner Turquoise Hill for $3.3 billion in an effort to simplify development of the mine which will produce more than 500,000 metric tonnes per year. It now owns a 66% stake and the Mongolian government the remainder.

Rio last year agreed to waive $2.4 billion in debt owed to it by the government and commit to a structure that did not require additional loan financing after development costs blew out to $7.06 billion from $5.3 billion slated in 2016.

Rio Tinto said at its results that discussions with Mongolia's government were ongoing. Rio started producing copper from underground operations in March and the copper mine is expected to be a pillar of profit in coming years.

L. Oyun-Erdene credited Rio Tinto's board for attending the Mongolia Economic Forum in July, which allowed them to "see the real situation and make proper decisions," praising the leadership of Chairman Dominic Barton in particular.

"I'm confident that will not have any disputes in the future and we can successfully resolve all those issues," he said.

"And this will serve as a clear demonstration that Mongolia is open to business and investment and also it will contribute to investors' greater knowledge of Mongolia's investment climate."

Rio said last month that it had submitted an offer to resolve the tax dispute, and CEO Jakob Stausholm said that the "transformed relationship with the Mongolian government and the people of Mongolia is creating serious momentum". (Reporting by Simon Lewis and David Brunnstrom in Washington, additional reporting by Melanie Burton in Melbourne; Editing by)

Mongolia is leading the way in safeguarding from money laundering and terrorist financing, further showcasing the country's commitment to combating corruption Minister of Justice and Home Affairs, Kh.Nyambaatar, announced.

Mongolia has passed all 40 recommendations set by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), making Mongolia the first in the Asia Pacific region, and the 5th country in the world.

"This is a momentous accomplishment for our government and the country of Mongolia. It demonstrates our commitment in promoting regional security, making us a global leader in this fight," says Minister Nyambaatar.

"FATF is the leading global watchdog for financial crimes. Mongolia takes its recommendations extremely seriously – and we welcome the increased accountability that comes with the adoption of the FATF recommendations. FATF researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate these risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action. In total, more than 200 countries and jurisdictions have committed to implementing FATF's standards as part of a co-ordinated global response to preventing organised crime, corruption and terrorism.

"In particular, the upgrading of 'Recommendation 8' – which looks at the potential for non-profit organisations (NPOs) to be abused for the financing of terrorism - from 'Partially Compliant' to 'Largely Compliant' status, affirms our commitment to a responsible non-profit sector with more transparency in civil society. Mongolia's unique approach to engage civil society in policy development areas to comply with the FATF recommendation shows a commitment to embracing the free speech and liberty of NPOs and demonstrating strong consensus of the government with civil society.

"Mongolia has made significant progress in increasing transparency in 2023, nominated by the government as the 'Year of Fighting Corruption'. Corruption is a predicate crime to money-laundering and other abuses of power, and we are determined to wipe out corruption in our country. Anti-corruption efforts have included the adoption of changes in anti-corruption laws and an anti-corruption strategy, the investigation and prosecution of high-level corruption cases, and the promotion of transparency and accountability in public procurement.

"The Mongolian government will remain assiduous in continuing to root out corruption in the country," Minister Nyambaatar said.

The 26th annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Anti-Money Laundering Group took place in Vancouver, Canada on July 9-14, 2023. At the meeting, the Mongolia progress report defense team was headed by the Deputy Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs, B. Solongoo. The Group discussed and approved Mongolia's Progress Report related to the technical implementation of "Recommendation 8" related to non-profit organizations of FATF's 40 Recommendations.

The Financial Action Task Force assesses countries and jurisdictions with the help of nine associate member organisations and other global partners such as the IMF and World Bank. Its 40 recommendations set out a comprehensive and consistent framework of measures in order to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and the financing of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. They set an international standard to prevent these illegal activities and their societal harm.

In Mongolia's case, the assessment of full compliance with the 40 FATF Recommendations is a confirmation from many countries that Mongolia has created a robust legal framework and fully implemented and reflected relevant requirements in laws and regulations through improved regulation.

SOURCE The Government of Mongolia

Bullish predictions for the copper market are not hard to find.

And with robust prices and redhot demand over the past few years, copper mining companies have been raking in cash.

The only thing missing from this scenario is, well, more copper.

There are few major discoveries and even fewer new mines being built – and dwindling production at existing ones.

Worries over supply shortfalls are occupying governments and boards and with the average lead time for a new copper mine well over a decade, copper users are seeking nearer term solutions to avoid a supply crunch.

A new in-depth report by BMO Capital Markets examines the scope of copper demand destruction through thrifting and substitution, an issue that “has become a common thread in discussion” in the industry.

And the numbers in the investment bank’s Coping Strategies for Copper Constraint by analysts Rory Townsend and Colin Hamilton are indeed eye-popping.

BMO says in the absence of any further substitution or thrifting, copper semis demand could reach 40.4 million tonnes per year by 2030. Its prediction of maximum demand is up from 31.8 million tonnes last year, or a 2022–2030 compound growth rate of 3%.

But the say authors there is scope – and already instituted programs by original equipment manufacturers – to use less or substitute copper entirely including in electricity transmission and distribution networks, renewable generation capacity, communication cables, industrial air conditioning units, and the transport sector.

Fear substitution

Through this process, the investment bank’s base case scenario sees the potential of just under 10 million tonnes of cumulative copper semis demand eliminated through 2030:

“Our base case remains that substitution and thrifting occurs in a steady, incremental way that is good for prevailing commodity prices.

“However, there is a growing risk that consumers are starting to design around potential constraints before they arise, particularly in the automotive sector.

“Such ‘fear substitution’ would be a challenge to the longer-term demand thematic and would have the potential to significantly hurt both industry volumes and prices.”

Over 20m tonnes of copper demand could be destroyed through 2030

If the base case expects the market to chug along nicely, under this “fear” scenario of aggressive substitution, BMO expects an additional 11.6 million tonnes of demand is under risk.

That’s 21.5 million cumulative tonnes at risk through to the end of the decade, or put another way, annual demand of 35.2 million tonnes in 2030 (vs the 40.4 million tonnes) or a CAGR of 1.2% (vs 3%).

Al is your pal

Copper is four times as expensive as aluminium right now – a level up from near 1:1 in 2000 and cheap enough to see the metal replacing copper on a consistent basis, says BMO. While aluminium only has around 60% of the conductivity of copper, in many instances its lower weight could make substitution more compelling over and above cost considerations.

Areas that may see thrifting are the greater use of high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines that reduce metal intensity in transmission networks, the continuing move to fibre optic communications networks, and renewable generation projects, which are are often small enough to be connected directly to the distribution network and utilise lower voltage cabling which also typically requires less metal per kilometre compared to higher voltage cables, according to BMO.

BMO forecasts the combined length of the global electricy transmission and distribution network to reach 110 million kilometres (68m mi) by 2030.

The investment bank sees air conditioning systems as an area most exposed, particularly in industrial applications where substitution is technically viable. The authors point to aircon giant Daikin, which has a target to halve its global copper consumption by the end of next year.

Down to the wires

EVs use substantially more copper than gasoline and diesel-powered cars, but auto and battery makers are hard at work reducing this.

Thinner copper foil is being used in battery cells, the switch to 800V platforms is facilitating the use of thinner cables, the increased penetration of lower specification vehicles as we progress toward mass adoption, combined with the rightsizing of battery packs and electric motors, should all result in a reduction in copper intensity, says BMO.

BMO says the world ex-China averages 69kg of copper per light duty battery electric vehicle and BEVs in China average closer to 50kg, but “any projections that still include the fabled 80kg need to be adjusted.”

Tesla in May said that starting with the Cybertruck, which is in early production, the Optimus robot, and all future electric vehicles, will use a 48V low-voltage system, compared to the 12V system used in most cars.

In traditional 12V systems, wiring and components must be larger and heavier to handle high electrical loads. With a 48V system, Tesla expects a reduction in battery weight and cost savings.

Over 20m tonnes of copper demand could be destroyed through 2030

“First approximation, that means we need only about a quarter as much copper in the car as would be needed for a 12V battery, so that’s a big deal because people often worry about whether there is enough copper,” Musk said.

“Yes, there is.”

Still bullish

BMO takes pains to say “it still believes in the long-term copper thesis and would argue we are still bullish the commodity over the medium term to long term.”

Even under its minimum demand/maximum substitution scenario, the copper market will enjoy positive growth including in non-energy transition related areas like construction, and that is after taking into account the all-important Chinese construction sector:

“Naturally, the future of Chinese property demand is often front of mind when it comes to areas at risk of potential structural decline.

“That said, the focus of stimulus measures and developer focus will likely remain centred on housing completions and shanty town refurbishment, as opposed to new starts, which are typically more copper and aluminium intensive.”