Copper price jumps on gangbusters China growth www.mining.com

Copper futures trading on the Comex market in New York jumped on Monday on renewed optimism about economic strength in top commodity consumer China.

Property and income of President, Prime Minister and Deputy Speaker of Parliament www.gogo.mn

According to the Law on Anti-Corruption, high level of state officials must submit their declarations of their property and income to the Anti-Corruption Agency within 30 days of appointment. 
This year a total of 242 state servants have measured to fill the property and income declaration of 2016. As of Jul 18th, Anit-Corruption Agency posted declarations of 239 state officials on their website. 
The newly elected president of Mongolia Kh.Battulga`s property and income totaled USD 467,380 (1 billion 124 million tugrik) in 2016. Note that it does not include the cost of the president's Lexus 570.
Details were as follows:
Annual income - USD 54,097 (130 million tugrik)
Annual income of his family members - USD 12,898 (31 million tugrik) 
Housing and apartment - USD 379,452 (912 million tugrik)
Livestock - 1 herd of horses worth USD 4,992 (12 million tugrik)
Savings - USD 1,663 (4 million tugrik)
Snuff bottle - USD 14,557 (35 million tugrik)
Moreover, President Kh.Battulga is a shareholder of more than 20 companies including Genco Tour Bureau, Makh Impex, Talkh Chiher and Bayangol Hotel.

The Investment Outlook of Mongolia in 2H 2017 www.frontier.mn

As we have pointed out last week, we are more optimistic about the future in a long run. However, investors are cautioned that the roads ahead are still bumpy. Below are the several check lists that investor should be aware of in the next few months.

Erdene Provides Exploration Update on Southwest Mongolia Gold Exploration; Continues to Expand Western Gold Zone at Bayan Khundii www.morningstar.com

Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD) (" Erdene " or "Company") is pleased to provide additional assay results from the Company's 2017 drill program at its 100% owned Bayan Khundii Gold Project ("Bayan Khundii") in southwest Mongolia.

Wildfires under control, says NEMA www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Backfires have been lit successfully against 7 wildfires, reported National Emergency Management Agency.

GDP data show continued expansion www.chinadaily.com

China's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter and economists said the trend of stable growth is set to continue into the second half of 2017, paving the way for the country to strengthen reforms.

Japan offers $1 bil. to help UN achieve SDGs www.nhk.or.jp

Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida says Japan will contribute 1 billion dollars by 2018 to combat poverty and hunger in the world.

BNP Paribas faces $246m fine in currency scandal www.bbc.com

The US central bank has fined BNP Paribas $246m (£189m), the latest punishment in a currency rigging scandal that has led to billions in fines on both sides of the Atlantic.
Authorities say traders at different firms used online chat rooms to share information about currency bids without adequate oversight from their banks.
The Federal Reserve alone has issued more than $2bn in fines against seven banks tied to the scandal.
Cases against traders are ongoing.
The scandal has touched banks that include Barclays, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, UBS and JP Morgan Chase. It had resulted in billions in fines levied by various regulators related to manipulation of currency markets.

The ‘Third Neighbor Policy’ Of Mongolia: Romantic Or Realistic? – Analysis www.eurasiareview.com

On July 10, the president-elect Kh. Battulga was inaugurated at the State House in Ulan Bator, where he vowed to resume the “third neighbor policy” for safeguarding Mongolia’s independence and freedom. Although Mongolia’s role in the world affairs is marginal, the people living on land-locked country have been well-known for their great dream.

It is true that the nomadic tribes did create the largest Mongol Empire in human history by very controversial means between 1227 and 1294. Yet it is generally accepted that Mongolia as a unified entity had been non-existent until 1992 when the former Soviet Union was disintegrated. The milieu in that Mongolia is located has never changed, for its neighbors—China and Russia—are two formidable powers in any real sense.

Yet, the idea of the “third neighbor” is a facet of foreign relations of Mongolia referring to its building relationships with countries other than Russia and China that historically had a sphere of influence extending to the country. While Russia and China are the neighbors physically that Mongolia shared borders with only, the “third neighbor” was first put forward by former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker during his meeting with Mongolian leaders in 1990. For sure, it refers to the U.S. as a third neighbor with a view to endorsing the Mongols’ first move toward democracy. Since then, the idea of “third neighbors” has been picked up by Mongolian policy- makers from time to time and eventually become formalized in its foreign policy and legislation. This reveals their desire to have more the “third neighbors”, primarily the United States, Japan, South Korea, India and Turkey.

Actually, it is more than a symbolic gesture for Mongolia, since 2003, it has been involved into military drills with the United States and other NATO members. In 2010, Mongolia sent its contingents to Afghanistan under the command of NATO while it was invited to participate in the 2012 NATO summit in Chicago with individual partnership and cooperation program status. By contrast, although Mongolia was granted the status of the observer member in 2004, it has never applied for a formal status like India, Pakistan or Iran. As a senior diplomat of Mongolia stated in 2013, “Mongolia’s third neighbor countries play a crucial role in its foreign policy.”

Yet, this rhetoric is never realistic in practice. First, that Mongolia has tried to balance its relations with Russia and China on one hand with relations with other major powers is not an easy task for the elites in Ulan Bator. True, this is not a new tactic in diplomacy, but it seems that Mongolia has missed the point that its giant neighbors would never accept the involvement of the third neighbor(s) into their strategically proximate areas. Then Mongolia argued that the third neighbor policy simply echoed the age-old sentiment of the Mongols to look beyond the two neighbors, like it did in history to adopt Buddhism from India over Chinese Confucianism and Russian Slavic religions. Yet, it reflects their consciousness of looking broadly in geopolitics rather than cultural affinities.

Second, neither China nor Russia has interfered into Mongolia’s domestic affairs in the post-Soviet political reforms and power transition from one-party rule to a liberal democracy. In effect, China and Russia have helped Mongolia tackle its severe economic hardships after the sudden end of Soviet investment and subsidies. In 2012 when Mongolia became a member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), it met no challenge from Moscow and Beijing. Since the third neighbor policy is used frequently, it does cause misperceptions with its two neighbors. Economically, no country including Mongolia likes to put all their eggs into one basket. Yet, China and Russia have large impact on the Mongolian economy in an overwhelming way. For instance, President Putin said, “The natural geographical proximity of Mongolia, Russia and China make it possible for us to implement good long-term projects in infrastructure, the power sector and the mining industry. We have what to discuss with each other. Naturally we deem it important, expedient and useful to start a permanent dialogue.”

Essentially, the third neighbor policy, though dynamic, is an effort on the part of Mongolia to balance the influence from China and Russia. To that end, the foreign policy-makers in Ulan Bator have stretched out to look for key players globally that have greater geopolitical impact on Mongolia, Russia and China. As the challenges ahead are so great, the ruling elites of Mongolia do not have room for oversights. On one hand, Mongolia under ex-President Elbegdorj made the proposal of a “Russia-China-Mongolia trilateral cooperation” in 2014, with Xi‘s endorsement and Putin’s acquiescence, there was little standing in the way of trilateral cooperation. For Mongolia, this trilateral initiative meshes well with Elbegdorj’s focus on being involved landlocked country into global diplomacy. On the other hand, Mongolia has failed to deepen its cooperation with Russia despite making major inroads elsewhere in the world. In 2013 alone, it signed 63 bilateral agreements, including with the U. S., EU, China and Japan. Yet, it did not manage to sign any new agreements with Russia.

To certain extent, the unique geopolitical opportunity Mongolia presents makes it a vital strategic partner for those wanting to hedge against the influence of either China or Russia, or both. This encourages some groups of the Mongolians to pursue unrealistic or even adventurous goals. In addition, its rich natural reserves and vibrant economy also attracts the recession- stricken West to be eagerly involved in landlocked country. Yet, it has been dependent on Russia militarily while it is evidently too close to China, its largest trade partner and foreign investor. Since relationship with China is likely to determine Mongolia’s future, the leaders in Ulan Bator feel uneasy about this, clearly trying to avoid being embraced too closely by China or by Russia. Given this, what Mongolia primarily wants is the Western help to shield it from the overwhelming influence of its neighbors and to yield enough diplomatic room when engaging with any sides.

On September 29 2015, then President Elbegdorj, a Harvard-educated politician, addressed at the UN General Assembly. He cited Mongolia’s recent history, along with its geographic reality and the uniqueness of the chosen path of national development, to advocate neutrality. He said that “Mongolia has pursued a peaceful, open, multi-pillar foreign policy. This stance enabled us to declare Mongolia in a state of permanent neutrality. Therefore I am convinced that Mongolia’s status of permanent neutrality will contribute to the strengthening of peace, security, and development in our region and the world at large.”

Frankly speaking, the declared status as permanently neutral is a new initiative on the part of Mongolia, and equally is a logical extension of the “third neighbor” policy rather than a real departure from it. From the geopolitical and legal perspectives, permanent neutrality takes the long-time desire to balance two overbearing neighbors by turning to virtual neighbors; and to a next step by permanently declaring Mongolia to remain in between these two neighbors, not siding with one or the other, and not aligning militarily with any outside party to neutralize any notion of threats against these neighbors emanating from Mongolia.

The proposal of “permanently neutral” by Elbegdorj elicited the debates on its ends and means. Yet it is self-evident that since the future will likely hold ever-closer economic ties with China, the neutrality declaration may assuage Russian fears that Mongolia might become a staging ground for aggression toward Russia in the future. In a similar manner, Mongolia lacks of desire to forge any kind of geostrategic ties with China. Thus neutrality would offer a quasi- guarantee that Mongolia will not turn into a Russian buffer state against China in a military sense. Choinkhor Jalbuu who is director of the Mongolian Geopolitical institute and former ambassador to Washington argued incisively, “Having permanent neutrality doesn’t mean isolation from inter- national community. Put it simply, it is a position that Mongolia will not join any side against any country.”

Oddly enough, now the president-elect Battulga argued for the resumption of “third neighbors” policy. But the question is that does he want to dance with wolves romantically or he will realistically embrace Mongolia’s tenet as an actively engaged member of the international community. This is very the path chosen by the people of Mongolia rather than by others.

About the author:
*Wang Li is Professor of International Relations and Diplomacy at the School of International and Public Affairs, Jilin University China.

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Mongolian tugrik weakens against US dollar www.gogo.mn

The Mongolian currency, Tugrik weakened to 2420 against the US dollar today, according to the Naiman sharga currency exchange center. 
Before the Naadam festival, Tugrik has strengthened to 2300 against the US dollar. 
Due to the sudden increase in US dollar, Central Bank of Mongolia issued 1-week bills worth MNT 604billion at a weighted interest rate of 12.0 percent per annum on Jul 17th and sold it to the commercial banks.