With the EV boom squarely in the front view mirror, and with battery gigafactories promising to be heavy-hitting purchasers, lithium prices have started to rise at a fast pace.

Several months ago, Chile’s second-largest lithium producer, Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB), warned that global supplies of lithium were on course for a major shortfall in a few years’ time if prices fail to reflect the costs of funding massive expansions amid the EV boom. Specifically, ALB highlighted the chasm between discount-hunting EV manufacturers and lithium producers who were unable to meet growing demand at persistently low prices. But maybe Eric Norris, operations manager for Albemarle’s lithium business, rushed his fences: Lithium carbonate prices have nearly tripled after sinking to multi-year lows of $29,800 per ton in July 2020. Lithium carbonate is a critical ingredient in the manufacture of Lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles.

And now another giant lithium producer is dancing to the same tune.

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium, the world’s largest lithium mining company with a market capitalization of $19 billion, says that lithium prices will continue to rally as lithium production struggles to keep up with the massive demand for EVs. The Chinese company has some decent credibility--after all, it counts leading EV makers such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) among its customers.

Ganfeng Lithium reported net income of 1.025-billion yuan ($156-million) in 2020, a huge improvement on 2019 partly due to gains on the fair value of financial assets such as equities but also due to strong demand for battery-grade lithium.

Mega rally

Investors started pouring into lithium years ago, anticipating the very same supply crunch that Ganfeng Lithium and Albemarle are warning is now looming. They jumped the gun then, partly out of poorly timed over-enthusiasm, and partly because the logic ran like this: Any new lithium mines that could contribute to the EV battery onslaught would take years to bring online, from scratch--so best to get started in advance.

Now, with the EV boom squarely in the front view mirror, and with battery gigafactories promising to be heavy-hitting purchasers, we can finally see the much-anticipated supply crunch forming.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices started to buck a three-year downturn during the second half of 2020 thanks to robust EV demand roared back from the coronavirus. Lithium carbonate prices have gained 67% so far in 2021 and 224% in the past 12 months.

That’s mainly thanks to the postponement of lithium project expansions in South America--due to previous demand forecasts as well as the impact of the pandemic. This is expected to slow down the short-term supply of the lithium compound and improve pricing, according to Ganfeng.

Ganfeng expects its massive Cauchari-Olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina to produce 40,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate when it comes online in the first half of 2022.

Ganseng current boasts an annual capacity of just over 120,000 tons.

Looking further ahead, the company hopes to establish a lithium salt capacity of at least 600,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually, good for a 400% increase.

That alone should give you an idea of how bullish these companies are on lithium, thanks to the global EV and electrification drive.

Commodity rally

But lithium producers such as Ganfeng, Albermale and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE:SQM) can also thank another potent force working in their favor--a global commodity bull market.

A cross-section of Wall Street luminaries from Pimco to Point 72 have predicted a broad commodity rally thanks to the so-called reflation trade. Indeed, Wall Street is predicting a new commodity bull market that will rival the oil price spikes of the 1970s or the China-driven boom of the 2000s. Market experts, including Goldman Sachs, believe the commodity boom could rival the last “supercycle” in the early 2000s that powered emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).

Iron ore and copper prices are already trading at multi-year highs, while global oil prices have rebounded strongly from historical lows.

Lithium, oil, and copper are expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the new commodity bull market.

Russia is amassing unprecedented military might in the Arctic and testing its newest weapons in a region freshly ice-free due to the climate emergency, in a bid to secure its northern coast and open up a key shipping route from Asia to Europe.

Weapons experts and Western officials have expressed particular concern about one Russian 'super-weapon,' the Poseidon 2M39 torpedo. Development of the torpedo is moving fast with Russian President Vladimir Putin requesting an update on a "key stage" of the tests in February from his defense minister Sergei Shoigu, with further tests planned this year, according to multiple reports in state media.

This unmanned stealth torpedo is powered by a nuclear reactor and intended by Russian designers to sneak past coastal defenses -- like those of the US -- on the sea floor.

The device is intended to deliver a warhead of multiple megatons, according to Russian officials, causing radioactive waves that would render swathes of the target coastline uninhabitable for decades.

In November, Christopher A Ford, then assistant secretary of state for International Security and Non-Proliferation, said the Poseidon is designed to "inundate U.S. coastal cities with radioactive tsunamis."

An "onyx" anti-ship cruise missile launched by the Northern Fleet in Alexandra Land, near an Arctic "trefoil" base. Credit: Russian Ministry of Defense

Experts agree that the weapon is "very real" and already coming to fruition. The head of Norwegian intelligence, Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensønes, told CNN that his agency has assessed the Poseidon as "part of the new type of nuclear deterrent weapons. And it is in a testing phase. But it's a strategic system and it's aimed at targets ... and has an influence far beyond the region in which they test it currently." Stensønes declined to give details on the torpedo's testing progress so far.

Satellite images provided to CNN by space technology company Maxar detail a stark and continuous build-up of Russian military bases and hardware on the country's Arctic coastline, together with underground storage facilities likely for the Poseidon and other new high-tech weapons. The Russian hardware in the High North area includes bombers and MiG31BM jets, and new radar systems close to the coast of Alaska.

The Russian build-up has been matched by NATO and US troop and equipment movements. American B-1 Lancer bombers stationed in Norway's Ørland air base have recently completed missions in the eastern Barents Sea, for example. The US military's stealth Seawolf submarine was acknowledged by US officials in August as being in the area.

A senior State Department official told CNN: "There's clearly a military challenge from the Russians in the Arctic," including their refitting of old Cold War bases and build-up of new facilities on the Kola Peninsula near the city of Murmansk. "That has implications for the United States and its allies, not least because it creates the capacity to project power up to the North Atlantic," the official said.

The satellite images show the slow and methodical strengthening of airfields and "trefoil" bases -- with a shamrock-like design, daubed in the red, white and blue of the Russian flag -- at several locations along Russia's Arctic coast over the past five years. The bases are inside Russian territory and part of a legitimate defense of its borders and coastline. US officials have voiced concern, however, that the forces might be used to establish de facto control over areas of the Arctic that are further afield, and soon to be ice-free.

"Russia is refurbishing Soviet-era airfields and radar installations, constructing new ports and search-and-rescue centers, and building up its fleet of nuclear- and conventionally-powered icebreakers," Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell, a Pentagon spokesman, told CNN.

The 50 Let Pobedy (50 years of victory) icebreaker moving through the Arctic ice, said to be in January this year, in a first transit of the eastern seas in deep winter. Credit: Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation

"It is also expanding its network of air and coastal defense missile systems, thus strengthening its anti-access and area-denial capabilities over key portions of the Arctic," he added.

Campbell also noted the recent creation of a Quick Reaction Alert force at two Arctic airfields -- Rogachevo and Anadyr -- and the trial of one at Nagurskoye airfield last year. Satellite imagery from March 16 shows probable MiG31BMs at Nagurskoye for what is thought to be the first time, bringing a new capability of Russian stealth air power to the far north.

High-tech weapons are also being regularly tested in the Arctic area, according to Russian officials quoted in state media and Western officials.

Campbell added that in November, Russia claimed the successful test of the 'Tsirkon' anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile.

A Russian army demonstration video of its new ski sled for the Arctic. Credit: Russian Ministry of Defense

The Tsirkon and the Poseidon are part of a new generation of weapons pledged by Putin in 2018 as strategic game changers in a fast-changing world.

At the time US officials scorned the new weapons as technically far-fetched and improbable, yet they appear to be nearing fruition. The Norwegian intelligence chief Stensønes told CNN the Tsirkon as a "new technology, with hypersonic speeds, which makes it hard to defend against."

On Thursday, Russian state news agency TASS cited a source in the military industrial complex as saying there had been another successful test of the Tsirkon from the Admiral Gorshkov warship, saying all four test rockets had hit their target, and that another more advanced level of tests would begin in May or June.

The climate emergency has removed many of Russia's natural defenses to its north, such as walls of sheet ice, at an unanticipated rate. "The melt is moving faster than scientists predicted or thought possible several years ago," said the senior State Department official. "It's going to be a dramatic transformation in the decades ahead in terms of physical access."

US officials also expressed concern at Moscow's apparent bid to influence the "Northern Sea Route" -- a shipping lane that runs from between Norway and Alaska, along Russia's northern coast, across to the North Atlantic. The 'NSR' potentially halves the time it currently takes shipping containers to reach Europe from Asia via the Suez Canal.

Russia's Rosatom state nuclear company released elaborately produced drone video this February of the 'Christophe de Margerie' tanker completing an eastern route across the Arctic in winter for the first time, accompanied by the '50 Let Pobedy' nuclear icebreaker for its journey in three of the six Arctic seas.

Campbell said Russia sought to exploit the NSR as a "major international shipping lane," yet voiced concern at the rules Moscow was seeking to impose on vessels using the route. "Russian laws governing NSR transits exceed Russia's authority under international law," the Pentagon spokesman said.

"They require any vessel transiting the NSR through international waters to have a Russian pilot onboard to guide the vessel. Russia is also attempting to require foreign vessels to obtain permission before entering the NSR."

The senior State Department official added: "The Russian assertions about the Northern Sea Route is most certainly an effort to lay down some rules of the road, get some de facto acquiescence on the part of the international community, and then claim this is the way things are supposed to work."

Elizabeth Buchanan, lecturer of Strategic Studies at Deakin University, Australia, said that "basic geography affords Russia the NSR which is increasingly seeing thinner ice for more of the year making it commercially viable to use as a transport artery. This might yet transform global shipping, and with it the movements of 90+% of all goods globally."

The State Department official believes the Russians are mostly interested in exporting hydrocarbons -- essential to the country's economy -- along the route, but also in the resources being uncovered by the fast melt. The flexing of their military muscles in the north -- key to Moscow's nuclear defense strategy, and also mostly on Russian coastal territory -- could be a bid to impose their writ on the wider area, the official said.

"When the Russians are testing weapons, jamming GPS signals, closing off airspace or sea space for exercises, or flying bombers over the Arctic along the airspace of allies and partners, they are always trying to send a message," the official added.

Russia insists motives are peaceful and economic

Russia's foreign ministry declined to comment, yet Moscow has long maintained its goals in the Arctic are economic and peaceful.

A March 2020 document by Kremlin policymakers presented Russia's key goals in an area behind 20% of its exports and 10% of its GDP. The strategy focuses on ensuring Russia's territorial integrity and regional peace. It also expresses the need to guarantee high living standards and economic growth in the region, as well as developing a resource base and the NSR as "a globally competitive national transport corridor."

Putin regularly extols the importance of Russia's technological superiority in the Arctic. In November, during the unveiling of a new icebreaker in St. Petersburg, the Russian President said: "It is well-known that we have a unique icebreaker fleet that holds a leading position in the development and study of Arctic territories. We must reaffirm this superiority constantly, every day."

Putin said of a submarine exercise last week in which three submarines surfaced at the same time in the polar ice: "The Arctic expedition ... has no analogues in the Soviet and the modern history of Russia."

Among these new weapons is the Poseidon 2M39. The plans for this torpedo were initially revealed in an apparently purposeful brandishing of a document discussing its capabilities by a Russian general in 2015.

It was subsequently partially dismissed by analysts as a 'paper tiger' weapon, meant to terrify with its apocalyptic destructive powers that appear to slip around current treaty requirements, but not to be successfully deployed.

A Russian Delta IV submarine photographed on top of ice near Alexandra Island on March 27, during an exercise, with a likely hole blown in the ice to its left from underwater demolition.

A Russian Delta IV submarine photographed on top of ice near Alexandra Island on March 27, during an exercise, with a likely hole blown in the ice to its left from underwater demolition.

Yet a series of developments in the Arctic -- including, according to Russian media reports, the testing of up to three Russian submarines designed to carry the stealth weapon, which has been suggested to be 20 meters long -- have now led analysts to consider the project real and active.

Russia's state news agency, RIA Novosti, cited a "source" on Monday saying that tests for the Belgorod submarine, especially developed to be armed with the Poseidon torpedo, would be completed in September.

Manash Pratim Boruah, a submarine expert at Jane's Fighting Ships, said: "The reality of the weapon is clear. You can absolutely see development around the torpedo, which is happening. There is a very good probability that the Poseidon will be tested, and then there is a danger of it polluting a lot. Even without a warhead, but definitely with just a nuclear reactor inside."

Boruah said some of the specifications for the torpedo leaked by the Russians were optimistic and doubted it could reach a speed of 100 knots (around 115 miles per hour) with a 100MW nuclear reactor. He added that at such a speed, it would probably be detected quite easily as it would create a large acoustic signature.

"Even if you tone it down from the speculation, it is still quite dangerous," he said.

Boruah added that the construction of storage bays for the Poseidon, probably around Olenya Guba on the Kola Peninsula, were meant to be complete next year. He also expressed concerns about the Tsirkon hyper-sonic missile that Russia says it has tested twice already, which at speeds of 6 to 7 Mach would "definitely cause a lot of damage without a particularly having big warhead itself."

Katarzyna Zysk, professor of international relations at the state-run Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, said the Poseidon was "getting quite real," given the level of infrastructure development and testing of submarines to carry the torpedo.

"It is absolutely a project that will be used to scare, as a negotiation card in the future, perhaps in arms control talks," Zysk said. "But in order to do so, it has to be credible. This seems to be real."

Stensønes also raised the concern that testing such nuclear weapons could have serious environmental consequences. "We are ecologically worried. This is not only a theoretical thing: in fact, we have seen serious accidents in the last few years," he said, referring to the testing of the Burevestnik missile which was reported to have caused a fatal nuclear accident in 2019. "The potential of a nuclear contamination is absolutely there."

Today’s COVID-19 daily briefing by the Ministry of Health reported that a total of 376,373 people in Mongolia or 18.8 percent of nationwide vaccination target, have been fully and partially vaccinated against COVID-19.

On April 4 and 5, more than 1,000 healthcare officers and doctors are working at 64 vaccination sites to vaccinate people aged over 50, reports the National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD).

On April 3, Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene visited the vaccination sites in Ulaanbaatar city to get acquainted with the vaccine rollout process. During the visit, the Prime Minister assured that the period of partial restrictions ongoing between April 3 and 18 will allow to vaccinate up to 30,000 people a day, instead of daily average of 12,000.

As a result of accelerating the vaccine rollout, around 2 million adult population of Mongolia are expected to receive the first dose of COVID-19 vaccines before June 1, and all target population in Ulaanbaatar city will be fully vaccinated within the month of May.

The new Minister of Education and Sciences of Mongolia, H.E Mr. L. Enkh-Amgalan received at the headquarters of that ministry the Ambassador of Cuba Raúl Delgado Concepción in a working meeting that patented the progress made in this area of work in the relations between both nations.

With the signing in 2017 of the Agreement for the Recognition of Higher Education Degrees, three years ago, the rapprochement between the teaching and research institutions between the two countries began. Delegations from the National University of Mongolia have since participated in the events organized by their Cuban counterparts as “Universidad para Todos” in 2018 and 2019. The signing of memorandums of understanding between these institutions reaffirms the commitment to find the spaces that within the spheres of education and research are open for cooperation between these educational centers.

During the meeting, the Minister of Education and Sciences of Mongolia Mr. Enkh-Amgalan thanked the Antillean nation for the more than 150 young Mongols who have received professional instruction in Cuban educational centers, mainly in the fields of medical sciences, stomatology, veterinary medicine, engineering, agronomy, law among others. The Minister requested the Cuban ambassador to convey to the highest Cuban authorities the official invitation for a Cuban delegation to participate in the high-level segment of the Congress of Ministers of Education that will take place in Ulaanbaatar next October of this year.

The points of view exchanged at the meeting also included the expansion of cooperation in the science and innovation sectors, the exchange of knowledge in the biotechnology area and the trade in products manufactured by these emerging companies. (EmbaCuba Mongolia)

Mongolia reported 602 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases and one more death in the last 24 hours, bringing the nationwide tally and death toll to 10,820 and 16 respectively, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Monday.

A total of 9,804 COVID-19 tests were conducted across the country on Sunday, and 602 of them were positive, the NCCD said in a statement.

Of the latest confirmed cases, 514 were detected in Ulan Bator, the country's capital and the hardest-hit city, according to the center.

The Asian country launched a national vaccination campaign in late February, with the aim of vaccinating at least 60 percent of its total population.

More than 376,300 people have been vaccinated so far, according to the health ministry.

From today (5 April), Mongolia begun vaccinating people aged between 18 and 49 in Ulaanbaatar – in other words, the bulk of the workforce. The Government is aiming for all citizens in Ulaanbaatar to receive the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by 1 May and the rest of the population by 1 June.

The country of three million started the nationwide vaccination rollout on 23 February. The early stage of vaccination focused on target groups such as elderly people, medical workers and those with chronic diseases. So far, 60 percent of Mongolians aged above 50 have already received first dose of the vaccine.

As of today (5 April), Mongolia has vaccinated over 360 thousand people above the age of 18. The coronavirus vaccination rollout is ongoing.

In March 2021, the Bank of Mongolia (BoM) purchased 917 kg precious metals. Thus, total amount of precious metals' purchase has reached 2.9 tons since the beginning of this year, showing a decrease of 2.4 tons compared to the same period of previous year.

The BoM branches in Darkhan-Uul and Bayankhongor aimag bought 27.5 kg and 35.5 kg of precious metals respectively in March.

The average price of BoM’s purchase of 1 gram of gold was MNT 157,543.30 in March.

As of April 1, 5.2 million dams (22 percent of total 24 million) have delivered offspring. 14.8 thousand of the dams are camels, 23.8 thousand - mares, 102 thousand – cows, 2.8 million - ewes, and 2.3 million - goats.

With 2.2 million livestock offspring delivered nationwide, the survival rate is currently at 98 percent.

The offspring delivery rate is the highest (63 percent) in Khovd aimag followed by Bayan-Ulgii aimag (56 percent) and Uvs aimag (53 percent).

Beijing is exploring options to establish a new stock exchange that targets firms listed overseas and could bolster the global status of its onshore share markets, Reuters reported, citing sources.

According to people with knowledge of the matter, the country’s State Council has asked the top securities regulator to lead studies on how to design the exchange that would target Chinese firms listed in offshore markets.

The government hopes the initiative would also lure marquee international firms such as Apple and Tesla, which would have the option of carving out local businesses and listing them on the new bourse, one of the sources said.

Talks are in the early stages, and a timeframe and location are yet to be decided, said the sources, who declined to be identified. One option under discussion is upgrading an existing listing platform such as a smaller bourse in Beijing, they added.

China has two major onshore exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with combined listed market capitalization of 78.7 trillion yuan ($12 trillion).

The plan to set up a new bourse comes as the United States’ securities regulator made legal amendments last week that would expel Chinese companies from US exchanges if they did not comply with the country’s auditing standards.

Data by Refinitiv showed that about 13 US-listed Chinese firms, including the Alibaba Group, Baidu and JD.com have conducted secondary listings worth a combined $36 billion in Hong Kong over the past 16 months.