Mongolia throws a power station curveball at Rio Tinto www.afr.com

The cost of expanding Rio Tinto's Mongolian copper project could decline by almost $US1 billion ($1.5 billion) under a surprise Mongolian government plan that could increase the host nation's long-term influence over Rio and the project.

The Mongolian government has told the Rio subsidiaries building the $US6.8 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper expansion that it plans to build a state-owned coal-fired power station that would provide a long-awaited domestic power source for the mine.

The latest curveball from the Mongolian government comes barely a month before parliamentary elections in the developing nation, and a week before Mongolian courts hear charges against the government officials who signed the 2015 agreement that underpins the Oyu Tolgoi expansion.

Rio accused of 'weak' silence over ex-PM's jailing
The existing mine at Oyu Tolgoi is powered by coal-fired electricity that is imported from neighbouring China, but Mongolia has demanded that Rio find a domestic power source before June 30, 2023.

Rio flagged in February that a $US924 million coal-fired power station was the most likely domestic solution, although it indicated it would not be finished before June 2024.

The Mongolian government disagreed with Rio's $US924 million power station proposal, and has since told Rio and its subsidiaries that it plans to build a state-owned power station at the Tavan Tolgoi coalfields.

The surprise move has both short-term and long-term ramifications for Rio and the Rio subsidiary that owns 66 per cent of Oyu Tolgoi, Turquoise Hill Resources.

Leverage over the project
A government-funded power station would reduce Rio and Turquoise Hill's near-term spend on the project; a prospect that would appeal to minority investors in Turquoise Hill given the company needs to raise "at least $US4 billion" in further funds to cover cost and schedule blowouts on the Oyu Tolgoi expansion.

But a government-controlled power station would give the government a long-term source of leverage over the mine project, which could be important given the fractious nature of Mongolia's relationship with Rio.

The government is also understood to believe it can build such a power station cheaper than the $US924 million price tag suggested by Rio and its subsidiaries.

Turquoise Hill said it was broadly supportive of the government-owned proposal, subject to further agreement over the commercial terms for the supply of power and construction timelines.

Rio and its subsidiaries would likely need a guarantee they can continue importing power from China until the Mongolian government power station was built, suggesting the June 2023 deadline for Rio to find a domestic power source could be extended.

Signatories in court
The surprise proposal for a government-owned power station comes a week before scheduled court appearances by the two men who in 2015 were the Mongolian government signatories to an agreement that allowed the Oyu Tolgoi expansion to go ahead.

Bayanjargal Byambasaikhan was chief executive of Mongolia's sovereign wealth management company Erdenes Mongol in 2015 when he joined Rio Tinto's now chief executive Jean-Sebastien Jacques in signing the expansion agreement in a Dubai hotel.

Known in Mongolia as Byamba, he has since been accused of abusing his authority in signing the deal, which effectively kick-started the project without requiring approval from the Mongolian parliament.

Byamba is now chairman of the Business Council of Mongolia, a lobby group that counts Oyu Tolgoi as a member, alongside Australian companies such as Orica, Worley, Aspire Mining and the Australian embassy to Mongolia.

Similar charges, which relate to matters of process rather than any suggestion of corruption, have been filed against another signatory to the Dubai agreement and former Oyu Tolgoi director Ganbold Davaadorj.

The charges against both men are similar in nature to those filed against former Mongolian prime minister Chimediin Saikhanbileg,

Rio and Turquoise Hill warned in July 2019 that expansion of Oyu Tolgoi was running between 16 and 30 months later than the most recent guidance, and the cost of construction was likely to be between $US1.2 and $US1.9 billion higher than previous guidance.

Ex-Rio Tinto manager says he warned of Oyu Tolgoi blowouts
Turquoise Hill refined that guidance last week, saying the delays would be between 21 and 29 months late, with the company's best guess at this stage being a delay of 25 months.

The cost blowout range was tightened to between $US1.3 billion and $US1.8 billion, with $US1.5 billion being the company's best guess at this stage.

If Turquoise Hill is correct on those estimates, the construction cost would amount to $US6.8 billion excluding the cost of the power station, and first sustainable production would occur about the middle of 2023.

In 2012, Rio was expecting to have the Oyu Tolgoi underground expansion complete and in production by 2015.

Peter Ker covers resource companies, based in Melbourne. Connect with Peter on Twitter. Email Peter at pker@afr.com

Mongolia reports 4 new COVID-19 cases, 3 recoveries www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's National Center for Communicable Disease (NCCD) on Monday confirmed four new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total to 140 in the country.

Xanadu Mines initiates exploration at Red Mount JV www.zgm.mn

Xanadu Mines Ltd. on Wednesday reported that on ground exploration activities have commenced at the highly prospective Red Mountain Joint Venture (JV) with the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC). The Red Mountain JV project located within the Dornogovi Province of southern Mongolia, approximately 420 kilometers southeast of Ulaanbaatar, is a joint venture between Xanadu and JOGMEC. The project covers approximately 57 square kilometers in a frontier terrane with significant mineral endowment and has a granted 30 year mining license. According to the report, JOGMEC may earn up to 51 percent beneficial interest in the project by sole funding up to USD 7.2 million in exploration expenditure over the next four years. Exploration objectives of the earn-in deal are to discover Mongolia’s next world-class copper-porphyry deposit. Xanadu Mines is an ASX and TSX listed exploration company that seeks to discover and define globally significant porphyry copper-gold assets in Mongolia. “We are thrilled to have exploration underway again at our Red Mountain JV with JOGEMC, less than one month after signing the earn-in agreement. The fact that we can commence operational activities now, during the global COVID-19 crisis, is testament to the proactive and effective approach by the Government of Mongolia in managing the pandemic,” said Xanadu’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Andrew Stewart. “Red Mountain offers a rare opportunity to access a large, under-explored porphyry district. In the coming months, we will deploy a systematic exploration program, including deep penetrating geophysics, that we expect will provide a new perspective on the mineral potential at Red Mountain district. A steady stream of new geological information will help advance and refine several large-scale drill targets ready for testing in Q3 in 2020.”

Welcome to the yurt-opolis! How Mongolia is helping its nomads adapt to big city life www.theguardian.com

Visit Ulaanbaatar on Google Earth – the only way most of us are likely to get there for some time – and you will find that the Mongolian capital looks like no other city. Scattered around the Soviet-era urban centre are hundreds of thousands of tiny white dots. It is as if someone has emptied an enormous bag of confetti across the landscape, the white specks clustering in the folds of the valleys, extending outwards for miles in long, snaking tendrils.

These dots – separated in their own plot and sometimes accompanied by the orange rectangle of a tin-roofed shack, visible when you zoom in close – are yurts (or gers in Mongolian). For thousands of years, these transportable tents, made of wooden latticework wrapped with insulating felt and canvas, have been the house type of choice for the Mongolian herders on the plains. But the nomadic tent-based mindset is not something easily given up when herders move to the city – with problematic results.

“Mongolia is the least densely populated country in the world,” says Badruun Gardi, who grew up in Ulaanbaatar and in 2016 founded GerHub, a nonprofit social enterprise that helps people adjust to the challenges of urban life. “When you’re a herder, you can go for miles and miles without reaching another family. You don’t have to think about what living in a confined space with hundreds or thousands of people means. It’s the biggest challenge we face as a country.”

The idea of a fixed capital has always been a strange concept for this nation of nomadic herders. The 13th-century conqueror Genghis Khan ruled his vast empire from a nine-metre-wide yurt, while Ulaanbaatar itself used to be a nomadic settlement, formed by thousands of tents gathering around a movable monastery, following wherever the herds of livestock decided to travel. The Soviets attempted to formalise the capital in the 1920s, changing its name from Urga (Ulaanbaatar means “Red Hero”), building concrete blocks of flats and setting out an urban grid, which was consolidated in the postwar era. But, as thousands have flocked to the city in recent years, driven by the loss of livestock and promises of better education, healthcare and job prospects, the capital has expanded outwards in all directions as a sprawling ger-opolis. The adjustment from life on the open steppe to the hustle of the big city clearly takes some getting used to.

For starters, the world outside the ger is no longer rolling grassland, but a small private plot, encircled by a two-metre-high fence. City residents must pay for water and fuel, rely on transportation and manage their waste. Their individual actions have an impact on others, sometimes for the first time in their lives; they encounter common problems that become the responsibility of a collective body of people. These social challenges are exacerbated by a host of practical issues: there is no running water in the ger districts, nor is there mains electricity, sewerage or central heating. In winter, when temperatures can plummet to -40C, each household burns around three to five tonnes of coal, making Ulaanbaatar one of the most polluted cities in the world. And the scale of the challenge is only increasing.

“People tend to think of the ger districts as these fringe slum areas,” says Gardi. “But they represent over 60% of the entire population of the city, and they’re growing by 30,000 people every year.”

Gardi founded GerHub to help bring a sense of pride back to the ger districts. After a few years of working in whatever spaces it could find, the organisation’s educational and social outreach programme has a new home, in the form of a contemporary take on the traditional ger, designed by the Hong Kong architecture studio Rural Urban Framework (RUF).

Standing as a faceted polycarbonate pavilion in the midst of a muddled ger neighbourhood in the Songino Khairkhan district, the Ger Innovation Hub is a striking arrival. Its shimmering plastic walls envelop a slender wooden framework, which itself wraps around an inner space defined by mud-brick walls. In summer, the entire thing can open up, the wall panels lifting to let activities spill out into the surrounding landscape, while in the harsh winter, the layered structure creates a sheltered buffer.

“We were inspired by the structure of the ger itself,” says Joshua Bolchover, cofounder of RUF, a research-led practice based in the University of Hong Kong, whose students helped to build the project. “We thought, what if we peel the layers of timber, insulation and waterproofing apart to create a room within a room, like a Russian doll?” The resulting structure (judging from the photographs) creates a loosely defined series of spaces that can be adapted to all kinds of activities, from preschool playtime to innovation workshops for teenagers, training sessions for local businesses and drop-in meet-ups for the elderly.

The layered design means that, if it’s -40C outside, it would be about 0C (32F) in the buffer zone (“Fine for kids to run around with their coats on,” says Bolchover), thanks to solar gain trapped by the polycarbonate cladding, while the central space would only need to be heated to 15C, the warmth radiating from the thermal mass of the mud walls. A circular amphitheatre at the centre of the space has been sized so that a ger can be erected over it too, creating an even more insulated central core for more intimate gatherings.

“We want it to be as lively a place as possible,” says Gardi. “In winter it can be particularly arduous being stuck indoors for months on end, so we hope this will be a place for social life to happen and new community ties to be formed.”

Unfortunately, the building only had the chance to host an opening workshop before the coronavirus lockdown halted all activities in the city – Mongolia took particularly prudent early action, with few cases of Covid-19 and no deaths so far. Hopefully when the centre does reopen it will become a vital social hub to help this fledgling community form neighbourhood bonds and reap the benefits of their newly urban life.

US pushes for new crackdown on Huawei, raising concerns of retaliation against American companies www.cnn.com

(CNN Business)The US Commerce Department said Friday it is moving to restrict Huawei's ability to manufacture and obtain semiconductor chips using American-made software and technology, which could cut the company off from a key component from its suppliers.

The move reflects the Trump administration's latest effort to crack down on the Chinese technology giant, which has come under strict scrutiny from US national security officials. It also risks further heightening tensions between the United States and China at an already tense moment, with the potential for retaliation against American businesses.
The decision will require companies that make Huawei's chips using US-made equipment to seek a license from the US government, a senior Commerce Department official told reporters on a conference call Friday morning.
In making its announcement, the Commerce Department accused Huawei of trying to circumvent an agency blacklist known as the Entity List, of which Huawei is a member, and which imposes restrictions on US trade with the company.
Huawei didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. In the past, it has said that putting limits on Huawei could lead to the US falling behind in the deployment of next-generation wireless networks.
Minutes after the announcement, a Chinese state media official suggested that retaliation could soon follow — potentially targeting large US companies including Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA).
"Based on what I know, if the US further blocks key technology supply to Huawei, China will activate the 'unreliable entity list', restrict or investigate US companies such as Qualcomm (QCOM), Cisco (CSCO) and Apple, and suspend the purchase of Boeing airplanes," tweeted Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, an English-language newspaper controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Spokespeople for the US companies didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
China has previously threatened to unveil an "unreliable entity list" modeled after the US Entity List, but has stopped short of introducing it. The suggestion of retaliation against major US technology firms could foreshadow a major escalation in the US-China relationship.
Asked about the rhetoric from China, a senior State Department official said on Friday's call that the Commerce Department move does not mean chips cannot be sold to Huawei, but rather that the US government will potentially be able to block transactions when reviewing license applications.
In a separate decision Friday, the Commerce Department said it will extend a temporary authorization for US companies to do limited business with Huawei. But Friday's extension, for another 90 days, could well be the last.
The Commerce Department said the so-called temporary general license may be "revised and possibly terminated after August 13, 2020. Companies and persons relying on TGL authorizations should begin preparations to determine the specific, quantifiable impact of elimination if they have not done so already."
Businesses will still have the opportunity to apply for individual licenses that may allow them to continue working with Huawei past Aug. 13.
For months, the Trump administration has signaled that it could terminate the so-called temporary general license. The license lets businesses such as Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and rural telecommunications carriers maintain support for customers using Huawei devices in the US and around the world — as administration officials have searched for ways to remove Huawei from US markets entirely. The Federal Communications Commission, for example, has voted to restrict federal funding from US telecom carriers that deploy Huawei networking gear.
US national security officials warn that Huawei's technology poses a spying risk. The issue has become enmeshed in the Trump administration's overall tensions with China, which continue to escalate as President Donald Trump seeks to lay blame for the coronavirus pandemic at Beijing's doorstep.
Huawei has strongly denied that it would allow China to eavesdrop on sensitive US communications, or those of its allies.
"We never participate in espionage and we do not allow any of our employees to do any act like that," Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei told CBS last year. "And we absolutely never install backdoors. Even if we were required by Chinese law, we would firmly reject that."
Against the objections of US officials, the United Kingdom has indicated it will give Huawei a partial role in building out its 5G wireless network.

Cashmere piles up in Mongolia as coronavirus cripples trading www.asia.nikkei.com

EMEELT, Mongolia -- After years of expanding their goat herds to meet growing demand for soft cashmere from Chinese traders and Western shoppers, Mongolian herders were looking forward to a bumper payoff this spring following the country's usual long brutal winter.

The coronoavirus pandemic has crushed those hopes for herders like Munkhsaikhan Telmen.

He recently drove four hours from his family pasture in Tuv Province to the Emeelt market near Ulaanbaatar just to sell 2 kg of raw cashmere fiber for 90,000 tugrik ($34) in cash to meet immediate household expenses.

The bulk of the wool gathered from the Munkhsaikhans' 200 goats is piled in their yurt as cashmere now fetches barely a third of what it did last year when the family sold around 167 kg.

"It seems like this pandemic has killed everything for us," Munkhsaikhan said.

Mongolia produces around 40% of the world's cashmere fiber, but the country's herders, traders and processors depend on Chinese buyers who purchase more than 80% of their wool for further processing into yarn that can woven into sweaters, scarves and other clothes.

Cashmere is Mongolia's top non-mineral export and more than a third of the country's population of 3 million is involved in its production.

The herders usually generate two-thirds of their annual income through spring sales of the hair their goats accumulate during the frigid winter, using the proceeds in part to repay grocers and vendors who sold them supplies on credit.

But with international travel and many factories worldwide shut down by the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese just aren't buying this year.

"There is almost no demand for cashmere," said Shu Quming, a Chinese trader at Emeelt. "I can't tell the price because of the uncertainty, so I am not buying now."

Munkhsaikhan made another trip to Emeelt to raise cash so the family could catch up on payments on a Toyota Prius car it leased last year when they were selling their raw cashmere at 110,000 tugrik/kg. Now that the price is down to 45,000 tugrik/kg, his parents are worried about an 18 million tugrik loan they took out last November for hay.

"We watch the news every evening to find out what the government will say about us and how they will save us," he said.

Chinese and European clients of cashmere processor Khatant International have been canceling orders across the board in recent weeks, Chief Executive Bayarmaa Byambaa told the Nikkei Asian Review.

"My partners in Italy don't talk about business or price at all," Bayarmaa said of her top market. "All they say is, 'Stay healthy then we will meet someday.'"

Bayamaa is now considering branching into sheep wool to keep factory staff busy. Gobi Cashmere, the country's largest fiber processor, has already cut about 10% of its 2,550 staff due to plunging sales.

The government initially offered 300 billion tugrik in subsidized loans, at a discounted 3% interest rate compared to the average commercial rate of 17.6%, to processors on condition they purchased cashmere from herders at 100,000 tugrik per kg or more.

But with cashmere trading in Emeelt at no more 55,000 tugrik/kg, processors showed little interest.

Usually traders’ warehouses in Emeelt would be full of raw cashmere, but herders are holding back supplies with COVID-19 driving prices down. (Photo by Anand Tumurtogoo)
With Mongolian voters scheduled to go the polls to elect a new parliament on June 24, Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa last week announced that herders would be paid a subsidy of 20,000 tugrik/kg per goat.

While herders are eager for details about when and how the payments will be made, many in the industry are also hoping the government will soon relax border controls to allow entry by Chinese traders and tourists.

Health officials say the country has not had any cases of local COVID-19 infection due to early moves to tighten border controls, impose social distancing and require the wearing of masks. All 42 confirmed infections involve Mongolians returning from overseas, according to the government.

"It will be a scary thing for herders if Chinese partners cannot come here," said Erdene Zorig, an Emeelt cashmere trader. "They buy their cashmere only after they check quality with their own eyes and hands."

Mongolia reports 1 more COVID-19 case www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's National Center for Communicable Disease (NCCD) confirmed on Sunday one more COVID-19 case, bringing the total infections in the country to 136.

Iron ore export resumes through Burgastai border checkpoint www.montsame.mn

Gobi-Altai /MONTSAME/ Burgastai border checkpoint in Altai soum of Gobi-altai aimag has reopened and iron ore export to China has resumed through the checkpoint.

Financing agreement on cable car project approved www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. Yesterday, May 14, the Parliament passed a bill on ratifying the financial agreement to be established between the Governments of Mongolia and the French Republic.

Turquoise Hill expects Oyu Tolgoi blowout to top $1.8bn www.mining.com

Canada’s Turquoise Hill Resources (TSX, NYSE: TRQ) said this week that an ongoing expansion of the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold-silver mine in Mongolia is expected to cost as much as an additional $1.8 billion.

The Rio Tinto-controlled company and mine operator had expected the underground expansion to cost $5.3 billion when it was approved in 2015. Last year, however, Turquoise Hill flagged stability risks associated with the original project design, adding that amendments to it could increase costs by as much as an additional $1.9 billion.

The Vancouver-based miner also warned at the time of further delays of up to two and a half years, noting it wouldn’t know the exact scale of schedule and costs blowouts until mid-2020.

Oyu Tolgoi’s operator now says the expansion will need an estimated $1.5 billion, in a range of $1.3 billion to $1.8 billion. This may change due to any additional scheduling delays or increases in capital costs arising from the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic, it said.

In terms of project completion, Turquoise anticipates it would take two extra years than originally planned for the project to begin production, with a 21 to 29 months range.

“It is still a range. It is still fairly broad, but it is narrower (than the 2019 estimates), and importantly, it stayed within the range we have given,” chief executive officer Ulf Quellmann said.

Block caving
Turquoise Hill’s boss noted the company had selected block caving for the mine design, as it considers it a “more resilient mine plan that provides the best opportunity for success.”

Quellmann also said that the decision was based on an extensive trade-off analysis taking into account the reserve recovery, geotechnical, constructability, operability, schedule, as well as cost and value risks.

Turquoise Hill has $1.8 billion, which Quellmann says is sufficient to fund operations, underground and power development into the third quarter of 2021.

He also said that a definitive estimate will be published in the second half of the year.

Turquoise Hill is currently in discussions with Oyu Tolgoi’s 50.8%-owner, Rio Tinto (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO), regarding a proposal for an interim $4 billion funding over and above the liquidity currently available.

The massive deposit was discovered in Mongolia’s south Gobi Desert in 2001. Rio Tinto gained control of it in 2012, with the government of Mongolia retaining one-third ownership of the asset.

The ongoing expansion is expected to lift production from 125,000–150,000 tonnes in 2019 to 560,000 tonnes at peak output, targeted for 2025. This would make it the biggest new copper mine to come on stream in several years.

Oyu Tolgoi produced 35,203 tonnes of copper and 26,154 ounces of gold in the first three months of this year, which puts it on track to achieve 2020 production guidance.

One of Rio Tinto’s top investors, US hedge fund Pentwater Capital, said in April it would push for a management shakeup at the operation, due to what it calls “a massive devaluation” of the asset.