Mongolia’s frontier market and vast mineral reserves represent potentially lucrative opportunities for investors but vulnerability to external economic and financial shocks, ineffective dispute resolution, and lack of input from stakeholders during rulemaking warrant caution. Mongolia imposes few market-access barriers, and investors face few investment restrictions, enjoying mostly unfettered market access. Franchises such as fast food and convenience stores, outperforming expectations, suggest that investors can bring successful international business models to Mongolia. The cashmere-apparel and agricultural sectors also show strong promise. However, investing into politically sensitive sectors, including mining, carry higher risk.

Mongolia attracts investor attention but has trouble converting interest into investment. Unless and until Mongolia embraces a stable business environment that transparently creates and predictably implements laws and regulations, investors will likely find Mongolia too risky and opt for more competitive countries. An essential step to mitigate these risks is for Mongolia to implement the U.S.-Mongolia Agreement on Transparency in Matters Related to International Trade and Investment (known as the Transparency Agreement), which requires a public-comment period before new laws and regulations become final. Mongolia has implemented some of this agreement but is over five years behind full implementation of public-notice commitments. Parliament, however, with its D-Parliament online platform, is leading the way in increasing public engagement and engaging the public in the rulemaking process, offering a model for the government.

Government and parliament continue to address threats to judicial independence by implementing 2019 constitutional amendments and 2020 statutory judicial reforms that have improved transparency and reduced political influence in the appointment and removal of judges. Investors, however, continue to cite long delays in reaching court judgments, followed by similarly long delays in enforcing decisions, as well as reports that administrative inspection bodies, such as the tax authority, sometimes fail to act on politically sensitive decisions or cases involving politically exposed Mongolians. Businesses note substantial and unpredictable regulatory burdens at all levels; and cite an excessively slow tax dispute resolution process as an indirect expropriation risk. Investors are particularly concerned about a tax process that they believe effectively lets officials issue excessive, confiscatory tax assessments to coerce settlements. Finally, the perception that the government favors its own state-owned entities over private sector companies discourages existing investors from expanding, and new investors from coming. More positively, parliament has streamlined procedures for, and reduced the required number of, permits and licenses while the Government has moved delivery of most services onto digital platforms, increasing efficiency of its business registration processes.

COVID-19’s aftermath and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stressed Mongolia’s economy. In late 2021, Mongolia’s parliament passed its New Recovery Policy, a 10-year development plan to increase national productivity by improving transport logistics, energy production, industrialization, urban and rural infrastructure, and green development. This program depends on restoring market access for mining exports, the primary revenue source. Relaxation of PRC border restrictions in late 2022 has eased bottlenecks along the Mongolia-China border, increasing export revenues and relieving near term fiscal and balance-of-payments risks. Meanwhile, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, prompting unprecedented international sanctions on Russia, continues to contribute to uncertainty about access to critical imports, such as petroleum products, electricity, and such key commodities as wheat and fertilizer.

See the full document on the link https://mn.usembassy.gov/2023-investment-climate.../

Thirteen hundred metres beneath the vast Gobi Desert, the heat, dust and a sense of claustrophobia are unshakeable after a rapid trip down a mine shaft in a freight elevator known as “the cage”.

Yet Ganbat Tuvshinbat, a local mining engineer, grins broadly. “This is the warmest place in Mongolia,” he says of a country where the average temperature is below zero. “Here you can experience summer all year round.”

Tuvshinbat and his employer Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian multinational, have reason to smile. Towards the end of this decade, the company plans to produce about half a million tonnes of copper from the Oyu Tolgoi mine each year, enough of the metal to help build 6mn electric vehicles. When the underground mine is fully operational, it will be the fourth biggest copper project in the world — a boon for the Mongolian government, which holds a 34 per cent stake.

Despite setbacks and delays, Oyu Tolgoi — already the biggest foreign investment in the Asian country’s history — is emblematic of what the Mongolian People’s party government sees as its path to prosperity. Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, Mongolia’s Harvard-educated, reformist prime minister, wants western mining groups to tap the country’s vast deposits of copper, uranium and other critical minerals essential to the world’s fight against climate change.

Much is at stake for the country of 3.4mn people which only emerged from single-party socialist control in the 1990s. If Oyun-Erdene is successful, the developing country will enjoy a years-long resources boom. The government hopes to more than triple gross domestic product from $15bn last year to nearly $50bn by 2030 and halve Mongolia’s poverty rate to 15 per cent in the process.

There is another goal, too. A wave of investment from the west holds the promise of giving Ulaanbaatar a much-wanted buffer against Beijing and Moscow. The landlocked nation is highly dependent on its only two neighbours: China accounts for 84 per cent of Mongolian exports, such as copper and coal, and Russia provides about 30 per cent of its imports, including all its petroleum products.

Mongolia is still trying to safeguard its democracy because we have a very difficult geographical and geopolitical situation,” Oyun-Erdene tells the Financial Times, urging foreign investors to “pay close attention” and understand his country’s particular challenges.

Oyun-Erdene is cognisant of the rare opportunity at hand. Climate commitments are fuelling a historic transition to clean technologies, sparking an intense global race among companies and governments to secure long-term access to minerals. Locations once considered too remote or too risky are now in play.

To win over investors, however, he must convince them that the days of convoluted policymaking and deeply entrenched corruption are over. He also needs to combat fears over mining clashing with the country’s nomadic tradition and criticism from environmentalists. Finally, he must overcome a discouraging lack of modern geological data.

Oyun-Erdene has swiftly set about cleaning house in order to present his country to the western mining industry as a secure investment destination: sweeping constitutional and judicial reforms, a crackdown on graft and an overhaul of the policies and regulations governing the resources industry. “At the moment our main goal is to improve transparency,” he says. “After that, we can discuss investments from abroad and which countries to co-operate with.”

The prime minister is not the first Mongolian leader to have had this vision. The question is: can he be the one to realise it?

Cleaning house

Oyun-Erdene was halfway through his first term in office when he faced his biggest test.

In December 2022, he left the state palace and stepped into sub-zero temperatures to face Mongolia’s biggest public demonstration since the country’s democratic revolution three decades ago. The protest was sparked by the release of official records that confirmed what many citizens gathered at the capital’s Sükhbaatar Square had long suspected: corruption was rife among the country’s state-owned coal industry. Billions of dollars had been stolen, including by members of parliament.

The fury revealed not only the degree of public alarm over endemic graft and abuse of power — it was also a bitter reminder of the broken promises of earlier mining booms.

A month later, speaking in Ulaanbaatar, Richard Buangan, the newly arrived US ambassador, was unsparing when he summed up Mongolia’s prospects: “Capricious, non-transparent, unpredictable and corrupt application of laws and regulations make Mongolia unattractive for investors and challenging for importers and exporters.”

In response to the criticism at home and abroad, and driven by a resolve to avoid taking on international finance loans, Oyun-Erdene has prioritised making Mongolia investable at the heart of his economic agenda.

The prime minister has tapped his right-hand man, justice minister Khishgee Nyambaatar, to spearhead an aggressive anti-corruption campaign. Seventeen people have been extradited to Mongolia to face investigation and the government has asked Interpol to issue red notices for a further 92 individuals.

Oyun-Erdene has also changed the way politicians are elected. Constitutional reforms passed last May increased the number of legislators from 76 to 126 and established a mixed-member proportional system, with 78 constituent members and the remaining elected from party votes.

The new system, which is akin to those in Germany and New Zealand, is intended to increase oversight of the cabinet and provide greater civil society representation.

New rules are also being established for the appointment and dismissal of judges, requirements for public information disclosure and protection for whistleblowers as well as changes to the governance of state-owned enterprises and controls over the financing of political parties.

All of this shows Mongolia is “moving in the right direction”, insists Nyambaatar. “The revelation of previously hidden details, such as licensing procedures, land allocations and concessional loans incited anger and frustration among citizens,” he says. “We have come to the belief that the government should reduce its involvement in numerous business sectors.”

Oyun-Erdene’s plan also hinges on the country’s ability to forge new connections to the outside world. At its closest point, Mongolia is nearly 700km from the ocean. The prime minister points out that transporting goods by air is at least one hundred times more expensive than by sea. Mongolia, he says, is working to secure routes for its exports through China.

Amid concerns that tapping the country’s mineral wealth will leave its finances exposed to commodity price fluctuations, there is also a push to move higher up the value chain: from mining to processing and refining minerals, as well as building solar and wind projects in the Gobi to export power to China.

As he works to make Mongolia attractive to foreign investors, Oyun-Erdene, who faces parliamentary elections in 2024, must also keep the public onside. Equal wealth distribution, he says, is the most crucial part of that equation. To that end, the government is drawing up plans for a sovereign wealth fund to ensure resource revenues are channelled towards health, education and future economic growth.

“We believe that as the revenue coming from the mining sector increases, then the people’s support will also increase,” he adds.

Critical minerals

While many say it is too soon to judge the stickability of the prime minister’s reforms, there are signs that Oyun-Erdene’s message is cutting through.

Hundreds of investors, miners, diplomats and politicians joined in celebrations at Mongolia’s annual Naadam festival on July 10 at the lavish Shangri-La hotel in downtown Ulaanbaatar. Their presence was taken as proof positive of renewed interest in Mongolia’s resources.

Underpinning their attention is the looming global shortage of the resources needed for the world’s transition to cleaner energy systems, including electric vehicles, and the infrastructure needed to harvest wind and solar energy.

The International Energy Agency says that over the past five years, the market size for minerals vital to the energy transition has doubled to $320bn. Yet demand for critical minerals including rare earth elements, lithium and cobalt are expected to surge by as much as 600 per cent over the coming decade. Demand for copper is forecast to double to about 50mn tonnes annually by 2035. And if the world is to reach net zero emissions by 2050, annual investment in nuclear energy will also have to triple to about $125bn over the coming five years, according to the IEA.

Megan Clark, a minerals expert and advisory board chair for the Australian Space Agency, says Mongolia is “extremely well placed” in terms of its mineral endowment. She points to strong copper, uranium and rare earths potential as well as the possibility for “new niche industries” to emerge in high-tech materials processing.

Supporters of nuclear energy are equally bullish about the country’s potential as a long-term supplier to the nuclear power industry. Olivier Thoumyre, a representative for the French group Orana which is developing Mongolia’s first uranium mine, says: “I believe that it is a big source of diversification for Mongolia . . . The global warming situation has triggered, clearly, a new start for nuclear power.”

In presentations to investors about the potential in Mongolia, Rio executives tout a “vast mineral wealth predominantly untouched by modern exploration and extraction methods”, and that only 4 per cent of Mongolia’s landmass — an area similar in size to Alaska — is held under exploration licenses.

In reality, mineral explorers coming to Mongolia are quick to discover reams of Soviet-era land surveys which targeted coal and gold but only at relatively shallow depths. So, while Mongolia is marketed as a rare greenfield opportunity, the lack of exploration data remains a major problem for the industry. Without it, companies have to start from scratch.

To help address this, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, with backing from Australia, has in recent years helped establish a national geoscience database for Mongolia. However, that database needs to be filled with new geological surveys. Local industry leaders are quietly lobbying Oyun-Erdene’s administration to spend about $200mn to pay for the modern surveys which they believe are needed to reduce risk and attract private-sector explorers.

Clark, of the Australian Space Agency who also sits on the Rio board, says that Mongolia is not alone in trying to attract investors as countries around the world respond to the increased demand for minerals. Mongolia must ensure its mining-focused officials are properly resourced, she says, adding that agencies responsible for controlling exploration and mining permits should be considered a “vital” national capability.

Mongolia’s potential has been likened to South Korea’s evolution into a technology manufacturing powerhouse. Dominic Barton, the chair of Rio Tinto, notes that in the 1970s South Korea had “very little energy supply . . . no industrial market whatsoever, and very little access to capital.”

“There is every reason and more to believe Mongolia can go through the same transformational change in the next 30 years,” argues Barton, a former senior McKinsey executive and Canadian diplomat in China.

Barton adds that companies, including Rio, also have a responsibility to help Mongolia with that transition from resource extraction to higher-value processing. But there is a wariness about committing to investing in processing in Mongolia. Rio’s investors, he says, want the company to “be careful” about overextending itself beyond its core mining business.

Squeezed by superpowers

Yet as Mongolia reaches out to the west to boost growth, it must also avoid flaring rising geopolitical tensions.

This careful navigation was apparent on June 27, when Oyun-Erdene strode into the Great Hall of the People in Beijing and shook hands with Xi Jinping, China’s president. His visit resulted in agreements to triple the capacity of an increased number of China-Mongolia border crossings and negotiations over access to the port at Tianjin, south-east of the Chinese capital. On the same day, Jose Fernandez, the US under secretary of state for the environment, signed a memorandum of understanding with Mongolia to jointly work on securing a supply chain for critical minerals.

The simultaneous deals with the US and China highlighted the Mongolian leader’s pragmatic approach, diplomats say. This strategy has also included abstaining from voting on UN resolutions on Ukraine.

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, says that Mongolia’s “best bet” to hedge against Moscow and Beijing is to attract investment. “The key variable for Ulaanbaatar is credible democratic leadership that signals to diplomatic partners and international organisations the genuineness of domestic reforms,” he says.

In Ulaanbaatar, there is a palpable sense of urgency. Three years of trade restrictions along the 4,630km border with China during the pandemic battered the already-fragile Mongolian economy. Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine dashed any hopes of a strong recovery with headline inflation soaring to an average of 15 per cent last year.

The start of underground mining at Oyu Tolgoi in March is expected to help boost Mongolia’s economy to growth of 5.2 per cent this year, up from 4.7 per cent in 2022.

The World Bank has warned Mongolia that fiscal discipline remains essential in the short term. In years to come, however, sustainable growth and resilience to future external shocks will hinge on the results of the government’s reforms. “They need foreign investment,” says one foreign diplomat. “They would prefer it was western.”

Yet Oyu Tolgoi’s own chequered past highlights the rocky road ahead. The copper deposit was considered one of the world’s most exciting minerals discoveries in 2001, but its development has been marred by billions of dollars in cost overruns, years of delays and, at times, a toxic relationship between Ulaanbaatar and Rio, especially under Jean-Sébastien Jacques, the chief executive from 2016 to 2020.

His replacement, Jakob Stausholm, has worked to smooth over tensions, brokering a deal to write off debts of $2.3bn owed by the Mongolian government. Rio took greater control over the operation from Canadian miner Turquoise Hill.

Rio points out that for the past decade, about 10 per cent of the Mongolian government’s revenue has come from Oyu Tolgoi. However, an acute point of tension remains around the timing of a dividend payment from the project, which could still be years away and depends, in part, on the price of copper.

Sukhgerel Dugersuren, director of environmental group Oyu Tolgoi Watch, says that for decades she and others have raised concerns about the mine’s management of toxic waste, the lack of transparent and independent environmental monitoring and the consequences for the local nomadic herders.

“Experts will tell you it is just a dot on the globe. The fact is when you have thousands of dots there are cumulative impacts,” she says of the potential influx of new mines.

Most of the Oyu Tolgoi saga predated Oyun-Erdene’s time in office, but the prime minister says the mine’s problems have underscored the critical importance of transparency and accuracy when it comes to feasibility studies and financing plans. He wants to ensure history does not repeat. “We’ve learnt our lessons,” he says.

Sam Bryan is home from his Mongolian adventure with a new appreciation for the people and culture. The Guardian caught up with him to see how his big trip went.

Fermented horse milk might not be for everyone, but it was just one of the Mongolian experiences Sam Bryan will not forget.

The Ashburton Rabobank agri-business associate and former shearer has recently returned from a three-week stint in the east Asian country as part of the Share Mongolia programme.

The programme aims to arm Mongolian shearers with training and modern equipment, enabling them to shear and farm more economically and sustainably.

Currently, most shearing in Mongolia is done using scissors, a time-consuming method that limits the number of sheep shorn to just thirty per day and makes it difficult for herders to support their families.

Bryan was one of around 13 Rabobank clients and staff who embarked on the trip throughout June and July, sharing their skills and getting thoroughly immersed in Mongolian culture.

Bryan says the group was warmly welcomed by locals who went out of their way to give their guests a taste of authentic Mongolian hospitality.

"The best part about the trip was the people, how well we were looked after and how hospitable they were," Bryan said.

"They put a lot of effort into looking after us and making sure we had a good time."

Bryan spent the first part of his trip in the Ömnögovi province in the south of Mongolia in the Gobi desert doing two full days of shearing, which he described as "the hottest, stickiest and sandiest" shearing experience he has had.

At the end of the second night in the Gobi desert, a visit to a family of herders ended with Bryan adding camel shearing to his repertoire.

"We called into this family on the way home one night and decided to have a go shearing their camels.

"It was pretty easy; we just grabbed them, sat them down, tied them and shore them.

"It's a bit like shearing an alpaca."

The Ömnögovi province suffers from over-grazing, which Bryan says has significantly impacted the grasslands, with around seven kilometres disappearing into desert every year.

Tens of thousands of animals were visible in the valley every morning of his stay, including horses, yaks, cattle, sheep and goats.

By teaching more efficient shearing practices to herders and looking at new markets for the wool, the hope is they can reduce stock numbers and lessen the environmental impact.

"We gathered some of the wool to send back to Europe, with the idea of adding value to the wool they got from running sheep.

"We are hoping that would encourage the herders to run fewer goats and reduce the impact of overgrazing."

The sheep farmed by the herders are Awassi, a fat-tailed, coarse wool breed adapted to the desert conditions.

"In the desert, they have next to nothing to eat, but they do alright because they have a big lump of fat over their tails.

"It sort of acts like a camel's hump; it's the same kind of thing."

Bryan's next part of the trip was to central Mongolia, to the Arkhangai province.

The journey took several hours in the Mongolian vehicle of preference, which, somewhat surprisingly, is a Toyota Prius.

"We travelled on these dirt tracks; they are not even roads – they are more like farm tracks.

"And these Priuses are just amazing; they would go everywhere."

Bryan and his group trained thirty-five herders with mobile shearing trailers and equipment donated from various banks and organisations, including one funded by Rabobank.

In exchange for the training, the herders treated Bryan and the New Zealand group to traditional Mongolian cuisine, including fermented horse milk and a dish similar to a hangi, a Khorhog.

"It's mutton and potatoes, cooked up in a sort of milk can with rocks heated over the fire," Bryan explained.

"It's actually pretty good."

Bryan said the Mongolians have a nose-to-tail approach to cooking and are adept at making do with very little, with horse and mutton being a menu staple.

"They run a lot of horses, milking them in summer and eating them in winter.

"They race them too.

"They are resourceful and a very proud people."

Bryan hopes to return to Mongolia next year to check in with the herders they have trained and ensure maintaining their equipment.

By Claire Inkson

The recent decision by Mongolia to adopt SpaceX’s Starlink internet services is causing security concerns beyond the border with China, both as a potential military threat and as a possible way to bypass Beijing’s Great Firewall censorship of foreign websites perceived as “harmful.”

On July 6th, Mongolia’s Communications Regulatory Commission issued special licenses for SpaceX, founded by American billionaire Elon Musk, to operate as a service provider using low-orbit satellites and for Starlink to provide internet services in the country, according to AT.

The decision is part of the ongoing digital transformation in Mongolia and the New Recovery Policy, which was announced ahead of the annual Mongolia Economic Forum 2023 held on July 9-10.

“A fiber optic cable network already provides extensive high-speed internet access throughout Mongolia,” said Uchral Nyam-Osor, the Minister of Digital Development and Communications, on July 7th. “But Starlink technology will provide greater access to the country’s more remote areas. Herders, farmers, businesses, and miners living and working across our vast country will be able to access information from around the world and use it to improve their lives.”

Currently, Chinese citizens cannot access foreign websites blocked by the Golden Shield project, also known as the “Great Firewall of China,” unless they use VPNs. China has not adopted Starlink’s internet services for national security reasons.

Some Chinese commentators have an alarming view of Mongolia’s decision to use Elon Musk’s satellite network, as it is capable of breaking through the Chinese Great Firewall since its usage cannot be blocked with a “boundary line.”

Although Starlink has promised not to exceed limits, they have already planned to provide services in Mongolia and Pakistan, neighboring countries to China’s Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang regions, which have significant strategic importance. The feared risk is straightforward: if destabilizing social events occur in one of these neighboring countries, the related news can influence the Chinese population through Starlink’s services. In fact, thanks to Starlink’s autonomous services, countries utilizing them cannot choose to interrupt internet services in such situations, and therefore, news would also filter into Chinese regions.

Note: The formatting and content of the original article have been modified for clarity and to meet the requested specifications. The rewritten article contains the essential facts while omitting contact information, sources, images, and specific quotes.

Pope Francis proposes to meet with Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia at one of Moscow's airports when the pontiff's plane stops there for refueling on its way to or from Mongolia, Leonid Sevastyanov, chairman of the World Union of Old Believers (WSU), told TASS on Sunday, citing a personal conversation with the pontiff.

"The Pope proposes to meet Patriarch Kirill without delay at one of Moscow's airports, Domodedovo or Vnukovo, when he flies to Mongolia. Then he will have to refuel in Moscow at one of the airports," Sevastyanov said.

According to him, the first meeting between Patriarch Kirill and the Pope took place at the Havana airport in 2016, so a similar meeting can take place now.

"The airport is considered a transit zone, it’s neutral, it would not provoke opposition from those who oppose the pontiff's visit to Russia. If there is a response from the Patriarch, such a meeting could take place on August 31 on the Pope's way to Mongolia. Or on his way back on September 4," Sevastyanov added.

Pope Francis will make an apostolic visit to Mongolia from August 31 to September 4.

The Japan Sumo Association on Wednesday promoted Mongolian wrestler Hoshoryu to ozeki, the sport's second-highest rank, following his victory at the Nagoya Grand Sumo Tournament.

The 24-year-old, whose given name is Sugarragchaa Byambasuren, is the nephew of renowned former yokozuna Asashoryu, whose 25 championships in the elite makuuchi division are the fourth-most in sumo history.

Hoshoryu secured his maiden top-division title at the 15-day Nagoya tournament on Sunday after finishing with a 12-3 record that gave him 33 wins over the past three tournaments as sekiwake, a benchmark for promotion to ozeki.

He claimed the Emperor's Cup at Dolphins Arena by winning a sudden-death championship playoff against rank-and-file opponent Hokutofuji, who also finished 12-3.

JSA director Sakaigawa and elder Onaruto formalized Hoshoryu's promotion in a ceremony at the lodgings of his Tatsunami stable in Nagoya.

"I will do my utmost never to tarnish the reputation of the ozeki rank," Hoshoryu said.

Hoshoryu becomes the seventh ozeki from Mongolia following the promotion of Kirishima after the May tournament.

With Hoshoryu's promotion, there will be three ozeki and one yokozuna at the next grand tournament. Ozeki Takakeisho sat out the Nagoya meet due to injury, while the sport's lone grand champion, Terunofuji, pulled out on the fourth day.

Researchers from Mongolia and China will jointly establish a geographical information system for the habitat of the Mazaalai (Gobi Bear) in the Great Gobi Strictly Prohibited Area.

N. Baatartsogt, Head of the Department of Policy and Regulation of Specially Protected Areas of the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, exchanged views on this matter while receiving a team of researchers from the Chinese Academy of Forestry.

During the meeting, the Parties discussed cooperation to assess the quality of the Mazaalai's habitat, determine the status of the population of edible plants, and conduct research on biodiversity monitoring.

The team of Chinese researchers is working in our country within the framework of the agreement between the Governments of the two countries on the "Technical Assistance in the Protection of Gobi Bears" project signed in 2018.

In addition, during the official visit of the Prime Minister of Mongolia L. Oyun-Erdene to China, Minister of Environment and Tourism of Mongolia B. Bat-Erdene and Minister of Commerce of China Wang Wentao signed the "Additional Agreement on the Implementation of Technical Assistance Project in the Field of Protection of Mongolian Gobi Mazaalai."

As a result of this Additional Agreement, the term of the previous agreement signed in 2018 has been duly extended. Consequently, this extension will facilitate the conduct of more extensive and all-encompassing research, with the primary focus on enhancing its habitat, bolstering its population, and safeguarding the Mazaalai.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) is the first of the global iron ore majors expected to report lower half-year earnings from this week, as supply chains normalise after covid-19 and attention turns to how suppliers to China’s steelmaking industry see customer demand.

The world’s biggest iron ore producer is expected report its lowest half year earnings and dividend in three years on Wednesday, mostly on the back of a 15% fall in received iron ore prices over the period.

Iron ore accounts for about 70% of Rio’s earnings. A Visible Alpha consensus expects Rio to log profits of $5.85 billion and dividends of 185 US cents, 32% lower than last year’s $8.63 billion and 267 US cents.

Iron ore prices have recovered this quarter to the highest in four months on hopes of targeted stimulus for China’s property sector.

China’s top leaders pledged on Monday to step up policy support for the economy amid a tortuous post-COVID recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand, signalling more stimulus steps.

“The China reopening trade is coming towards an end,” said analyst Kaan Peker of RBC in Sydney. “We don’t think there is going to be large stimulus.”

Rio warned of the risk to global growth when it reported its quarterly production last week.

The world’s biggest listed miner, BHP Group, reports on Aug. 2, when it is expected to log a 35% fall in underlying profit for the half to $7.45 billion from $11.6 billion for the second half of the 2021-2022 financial year.

Fortescue sets out its quarterly production results on Friday and its financial results on Aug. 27. Vale, the world’s second biggest iron ore miner, reports its financial results July 27 after sales lagged output during the quarter.

(Reporting by Melanie Burton and Sameer Manekar)