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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

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Investors seek new catalyst for eurozone stocks www.ft.com

 
Roughly translated as ‘the more things change, the more they stay the same’ — the French proverb will have struck a chord for investors in European equities over the past decade.
 
The US stock market has outshone European stocks for seven of the past 10 years, including 2016 when, with the European Central Bank still adding monetary stimulus, the asset class was billed as one investors simply had to own.
 
Yet as the first quarter draws to an end, there are signs that 2017 could be different. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index, a benchmark for European stocks, now leads the S&P 500 in both local currency and US dollar terms since Donald Trump’s election as US president.
 
The global reflation trade has been a tailwind: shares of eurozone banks have risen by almost a fifth since Americans went to the polls.
 
Of more significance for many is that European companies are finally delivering earnings growth, helping to attract about $250m into funds focused on western European equities this year, according to data tracker EPFR.
 
Now, in an echo of the way in which Mr Trump’s election helped further galvanise equities, some money managers believe that elections in France and Germany could prove the next catalyst by delivering a combination of reform and fiscal stimulus.
 
“There is little doubt that fiscal stimulus would be taken positively by European equity markets,” said Paul Markham, who runs a global equities fund at Newton Investment Management.
 
In Germany, a hard-fought campaign between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Martin Schulz, the leader of the Social Democrats and her chief challenger, has the potential to shift domestic politics on the question of stimulus, investors say.
 
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron, tipped by polls to win the French presidency, has a reformist agenda.
 
James Sym, European equities fund manager at Schroders, says its base case for the French and German elections, which are in the spring and autumn, respectively, opens the door to a very market-friendly outcome.
 
“Our base case is for a Macron victory in France and potentially a Schulz victory in Germany. In shorthand, this would lead to France structurally reforming while Germany uses its fiscal space, which would be very positive.”
 
If the attention of some investors is turning to the potentially pro-market outcomes of elections in France and Germany, most equity analysts argue that it is the improvement in earnings that has so far been key to brightening sentiment.
 
Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy at Deutsche Bank, says the earnings outlook remains “the biggest driver for the region’s equities by far”.
 
He has little doubt that, this time, it really is different for Europe. “The earnings recession is definitely over,” he argues, adding that earnings per share levels in real terms have returned to levels seen in 2009 — that was a year European stocks outperformed.
 
What’s more, the region will not be able to escape any wider stumble in equities if confidence does evaporate in Mr Trump’s ability to pass tax cuts and fiscal stimulus. Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, estimates that equities could drop by as much as 10 per cent if that scenario unfolds.
 
That prospect will not be enough to deter the number of investors who believe that European equities hold greater value, especially to those prepared to examine sectors that have remained unloved.
 
“Stockpickers willing to dig down into these sectors will be rewarded with companies that offer world-class technology, yet trade at valuation multiples typically below their US-listed new economy peers, as Europe is often overlooked as a centre of innovation,” says Tim Crockford, a European equities portfolio manager at Hermes Investment Management, who points to opportunities with technology and industrial sectors.
 
However, with investors having pulled about $100bn from European equity funds since the start of 2016, more will have to come around to Mr Crockford’s view to cement the early signs of a change in sentiment. The eurozone’s major elections this year may yet help.
 
 
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New mine in Iran to add 800,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate every year www.mining.com

 
Zinc has rallied of late, being the best performing commodity on the London Metal Exchange for the week March 13-17.
 
Up 12% year to date, the corrosion-resistant metal is being buoyed by record refined output in China and tight supply after a number of mine closures.
 
News out of Iran this week, however, could stem price gains, especially if more zinc mines come on stream around the same time as plans to develop the massive Mehdiabad zinc mine, come to fruition. Reuters reported that Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organisation (IMIDRO) signed a $1-billion deal with private investors over the weekend to build the mine, which is expected to become operational in four years and produce an annual 800,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate.
 
The investors comprise a private consortium of six companies, led by Iran's Mobin Mining and Construction Company, which would run the mine for 25 years.
 
IMIDRO estimates the lead-zinc-silver mine has 154 million tonnes of proven reserves, which could rise to 700 million tonnes after exploration. Reuters notes the 800,000 tonnes of expected annual zinc concentrate compares to 13.2 million tonnes of zinc in concentrate produced throughout the world last year.
 
The announcement comes as Washington voted in January to extend sanctions against Tehran, whose nuclear ambitions have been a thorn in the side of the West, despite a historic deal made in 2015 with six countries in exchange for curbing its nuclear program.
 
Iran has the world's largest proven zinc reserves estimated at roughly 300 million tonnes, but the sector is vastly underdeveloped according to BMI Research, with just 0.5% mined so far. Iran sits behind China, Kazakhstan and India as the world's number four producer of zinc ore.
 
After several years of production decline, Iran's zinc mine output is set to return to positive growth, boosted by stronger international prices and booming demand from domestic construction.
 
The two largest mines are Mehdiabad with 16.5 million tonnes of zinc ore reserves and the Angouran mine with 9 million tonnes of remaining zinc ore reserves. Lead and zinc production are in the hands of Iran Zinc Mines Development Group, Bama Mining & Industrial, Bafgh Mines and Calcimin.
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Fukushima engineers continue probing reactors www3.nhk.or.jp

 
Engineers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are continuing their efforts to check the state of molten fuel inside the damaged reactors.
 
They sent robots into the containment vessels of the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, hoping to get a glimpse of the melted fuel.
 
But obstacles prevented a camera from reaching the bottom of the No. 1 reactor's containment vessel, and a robot got stuck while checking the No. 2 reactor.
 
The government and the plant's operator expect to decide how to remove the fuel debris, as the mixture of molten fuel and reactor parts is known, this year. It's seen as the biggest challenge in decommissioning.
 
Professor Hajime Asama of the University of Tokyo Graduate School is a technical advisor on decommissioning the reactors.
 
He says the latest probe didn't provide enough information to make a decision. He is calling for other techniques to be tried, noting that a camera attached to a pipe was able to capture images from beneath the reactor core.
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Qatar increases UK investment despite Brexit www.rt.com

 
The Qatar government is to invest £5 billion ($6.3 billion) in the UK over the next five years, deepening trade ties with Britain as it prepares to leave the European Union.
 
“Qatar will invest £5 billion in the UK over the next three-five years,” Finance Minister Ali Sherif al-Emadi said during a visit to London for a Qatar-UK business forum on Monday.
 
The announcement comes two days before Prime Minister Theresa May plans to start the formal EU exit proceedings by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
 
“Qatar has great confidence in the UK, and this confidence will be demonstrated in the additional investments we will make over the next decade,” said Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani, who heads the delegation of over 400 officials and business executives.
 
Earlier, the head of the country's sovereign wealth fund said he still saw opportunities to invest in Britain after it quits the bloc.
 
The emirate has a significant stake in keeping the British economy and asset prices strong during and after Brexit. Qatar accounts for 90 percent of Britain’s imports of liquefied natural gas.
 
Qatari investors put billions into Barclays bank during the 2008 financial crisis and have created a stock and property portfolio worth over $50.27 billion (40 billion pounds) over the last decade.
 
“Qatar doesn’t see Britain leaving the EU as impacting their relationship, and it may be an opportunity for it to be stronger,” said Rachel Pether, an adviser at the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute.
 
Britain, in turn, plans to double the amount of export finance available to support trade with Qatar to £4.5 billion ($5,67 billion), according to UK Trade Minister Liam Fox.
 
“No trade between the UK and Qatar should fail for lack of finance and insurance, that is why the UK government can give buyers and sponsors in Qatar attractive long-term finance to make sourcing from the UK more competitive,” he told the Qatar-UK business forum.
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Top Russian automaker considers delisting from Moscow Exchange - reports www.rt.com

 
Russia’s flagship car producer AvtoVAZ may delist from the Moscow Exchange after a secondary share offering later this year, sources told Reuters.
The move would allow the carmaker to stop disclosing financial results and reduce costs.
 
"This is not on the agenda. Our focus, for now, is the ongoing capital restructuring of AvtovVAZ," said an official from Renault which owns 25 percent of AvtoVAZ.
 
According to the unnamed sources, the purchase of a 24.1 percent stake in AvtoVAZ by Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital late last year was part of the delisting plan. The purchase was part of a larger recapitalization plan for the automaker, which posted a net loss of 44.8 billion rubles ($785.96 million) in 2016.
 
AvtoVAZ plans to offer investors 9.25 billion shares priced at 10.3 rubles each in a second issue later this year.
 
The largest car manufacturer in Russia and Eastern Europe, AvtoVAZ produces nearly one million vehicles a year. In 2012 it created an alliance with Renault-Nissan and started assembling the Renault Logan, Datsun and Nissan Almera models in Russia.
 
The automaker has a stable market share in CIS countries and also exports cars to Germany, Iran, Syria, Egypt, and Hungary. It intends expanding into new markets such as the Czech Republic, Mongolia, and South-East Asia. It also plans to restart sales of its automobiles in Syria and Lebanon.
 
Last month, AvtoVAZ announced exports to the biggest auto market in the world China. The company also started selling cars in the United Arab Emirates in a bid to have a share in the Middle East market.
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World Bank project aims to help Mongolia diversify exports www.gogo.mn

ULAANBAATAR, March 24, 2017 – The Mongolia Ministry of Finance and the World Bank launched the Export Development Project aimed to help small- and medium-sized enterprises in non-minerals sectors strengthen their export capabilities and boost their access to export markets.
The project, to be implemented by the government of Mongolia in the next 4 1⁄2 years, will support Mongolia’s economic diversification by providing those firms with training, matching grants and access to export credit-insurance products.
“In an economy where exports are heavily dominated by mining commodities, export diversification will boost productivity, overall entrepreneurship, and employment,” said James Anderson, World Bank Country Manager for Mongolia, at the project’s launch event. “This project also complements other efforts by the World Bank to support inclusive economic growth and livelihoods in Mongolia.”

“Through the project, existing and future SME exporters in Mongolia’s non-minerals sector will have broader and easier access to export credit insurance, learn practical knowhow, and receive financial support to improve their export quality and competitiveness,” said Minister of Finance Choijilsuren Battogtokh. “The agricultural Reinsurance Joint Stock Company, private insurance companies and other financial institutions will learn to provide export-oriented financial products and services to the Mongolian SMEs.”
In 2015, 87 percent of Mongolia’s exports consisted of mining commodities, while making up only 4 percent of the nation’s jobs. By contrast, agriculture employs nearly 30 percent of the total workforce, with livestock providing subsistence, income, and wealth for nearly half of Mongolia’s population.
The project is funded with a $20 million credit from the International Development Association, the World Bank’s fund for the poorest.

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Mongolia to lease two Boeing airliners in 2019 www.mongolia.gogo.mn

 
Mongolian Airlines (MIAT) has reached a lease agreement with the Boeing Company regarding 2 Boeing 737 MAX 8 airplanes starting from 2019 and for 12 years.
After signing an agreement to purchase 3 airliners from the Boeing Company, Mongolian Airlines received a Boeing 767-300ER aircraft in 2013. The remaining two air crafts were to be purchased in 2019, however, on account of the current economic difficulties, the Mongolian side has decided to lease the airplanes.
As such, the purchase order has been transferred to Avolon Aerospace Leasing Limited company based in Ireland, and a trilateral agreement has been signed.
The Boeing 737 MAX 8 airplanes are expected to arrive in Mongolia in the first and second seasons of 2019.
Mongolian Airlines conducts its flights with 5 Boeing airliners which were manufactured from 2000 to 2014.
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Central bank official: Boost economy using fiscal policy www.chinadaily.com.cn

 
The cycle of global quantitative easing is coming to an end and policymakers should rely more on fiscal policy to stimulate growth, Zhou Xiaochuan, China's central bank governor, said on Sunday.
 
Zhou warned about the overreliance on monetary easing and said that policy is not "a panacea that can cure all kinds of illness".
 
"The direction is to see the limit (of monetary policy) and to consider very carefully how to get out of the period of monetary easing," Zhou said at a panel discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia.
 
In addition, governments should improve balance sheets and fiscal positions to create more room for fiscal policy, he said.
 
Quantitative easing is the practice of central banks pumping money into the economy through the purchase of assets, usually government bonds.
 
The central bank governor said China has the flexibility in fiscal policy, as the debt level of the central government is not very high, and added the country needs to streamline the relationship between the central and local governments to ensure fiscal policy fits the local conditions.
 
Zhou saw inflation and asset bubbles as the "unintended consequence" of the monetary easing.
 
At the forum, former prime minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz said emerging markets need to accelerate reforms.
 
Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, also warned about high inflation in the long run after monetary easing globally. But he said the monetary policy should not be blamed for the rapid rise of housing prices in China.
 
"Don't rely on monetary policy to provide all the solutions and don't blame monetary policy for all the problems," Li said.
 
The central bank launched mortgage rules to cool the property market. Among them, raising the down payment requirement for buyers of a second home in Beijing to 60 percent of the price.
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Parliament speaker to pay official visit to Japan www.en.montsame.mn

 
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Today, Parliamentary speaker M.Enkhbold left for Japan to pay an official visit. He will meet with Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, Speaker of House of Representatives of Japanese Parliament Tadamori Oshima, President of House of Councillors Date Chuichi. Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Fumio Kishida, Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Yasuhisa.Shiozaki, Deputy PM and Finance Minister Taro Aso will pay courtesy calls on the speaker.
 
During the visit, the Midterm program on Strategy partnership of Mongolia and Japan will be signed.
 
Speaker M.Enkhbold will also attend the 136th Inter-Parliamentary Union Assembly to be held on April 1-5 in Dhaka, the capital of People's Republic of Bangladesh. He will chair a meeting of Asia and the Pacific group and make speech at the plenary session of the Assembly on Eliminating inequality: securing humankind a dignity and wellbeing”. The speaker also intends to hold bilateral meetings with parliamentary speakers of several countries.
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European Union works with Mongolia on strengthening political and economic links www.en.montsame.mn

 
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ From 27 to 31 March, European Union high-level officials will visit Mongolia to support its political and economic reform path. The meetings will take stock and develop further relations, as Mongolia is a valued partner for the EU. The visit is part of regular, long-established political dialogue/cooperation.
 
The 17th EU-Mongolia Joint Committee will meet on 31 March. It will be chaired by Foreign Minister of Mongolia Mr Tsend Munkh-Orgil and EU Managing Director for Asia-Pacific Mr Gunnar Wiegand. They will examine recent developments in EU-Mongolia relations, cooperation related to regional and global issues, the evolution of trade flows as well as the implementation of development assistance. The meeting will also consider measures that may contribute to the development and diversification of trade and economic cooperation.
 
The Joint Committee will be preceded by three different meetings on 30 March:
 
1. The first ever Human Rights Dialogue, part of the EU strategy to promote respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. The main purpose of the dialogue is to support Mongolia's adherence to its bilateral and international obligations in relation to human rights, rule of law and democratic principles. The Dialogue will help identify potential cooperation areas in the human rights field.
 
2. The Sub-committee on Trade and Investment, which discusses the diversification of Mongolian economy and the attraction of foreign investment among other issues.
 
3. The Working Group on Development Cooperation will review and discuss priorities and their implementation in the medium term.
 
From 27 to 29 March meetings take place to support implementation of the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP+) under which Mongolian goods enter the EU market duty-free. In 2015, 20% of Mongolian goods exports, worth 16 million euro, entered the EU market duty-free under GSP+.
Mongolia joined the GSP+ scheme in 2014. This scheme aims to help Mongolia implement human and labour rights, environmental protection and good governance conventions and in return grants full removal of tariffs on over 66% of tariff lines.
 
The EU will engage with stakeholders, authorities, business, civil society, and international organisations, to assess developments in implementing the conventions. The EU will also inform stakeholders of the functioning and benefits of the GSP+ scheme and listen to any concerns or difficulties in its practical implementation.
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