Events
Name | organizer | Where |
---|---|---|
MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Oil to hit over $150 within 25 years – OPEC www.rt.com
The average price for crude will reach $155 per barrel in nominal terms by 2040, which is the equivalent of $92 in real prices in 2015, according to OPEC’s annual World Oil Outlook report released on Tuesday.
The producer group assumes that the price for the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), the blend benchmark used by the cartel’s members, will be around $40 this year. The price recovery will continue with $5 increments every year, reaching over $60 a barrel up to 2021.
The global demand for crude in the medium-term is expected to increase up to 99.2 million barrels a day (mbpd) by 2021. According to long-term projections, demand will rise by 16.4 percent in 2015-2040 to reach 109.4 mbpd.
“Global oil demand growth comes mainly from the road transportation sector, petrochemicals and aviation,” the report says.
Total global primary energy demand is expected to advance by 40 percent in 25 years – reaching more than 382 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) – with developing countries to provide a major part of the boost.
OPEC experts say the crude market has continued to readjust to the changing industry landscape since January, when prices fell to $27 per barrel. Since then, they have rebounded to the current $45-$50.
“During 2016, the market has shown signs that fundamentals are gradually rebalancing. However, despite non-OPEC supply contracting considerably, global demand remaining robust and the pace of the stock build decelerating, it is clear that instability and volatility remain,” the group’s report says.
Global stock markets rise ahead of election results www.bbc.com
Nissan's net profit skids down 13.3 pct on year in H1, brisk sales in China, N. America cap losses www.xinhuanet.com.cn
Facebook takes on LinkedIn with new job opening features www.reuters.com
Chinese Mainland and Taiwan to team up in 5G technology research www.chinadaily.com.cn
Baidu 'to raise up to $500m' for Waimai www.chinadaily.com.cn
Govt. to promote business using personal data www3.nhk.or.jp
Trump vs Clinton: Who is better for Asia? www.bbc.com
Call it the Brexit effect. Asian investors and traders were caught by surprise in June when the UK voted to leave the European Union.
At the time, most had priced in a scenario where the UK would vote to remain in the EU. When the opposite happened, stocks fell and sentiment soured.
Fast forward a few months, and this time round the environment has become even more uncertain.
As equity markets research house Nomura puts it "the election has become the largest 'known-unknown' markets have had to deal with since the global financial crisis (far more than the Brexit vote, previous US elections, multiple European elections, US debt ceiling debates, OPEC meetings or even Fed decisions)."
So no surprise then that investors in Asia have been extremely nervous ahead of the vote, and are hedging their bets this time round.
Fool me once, as the adage goes. Brexit proved that complacency has a high price-tag, and if there's anything that 2016 has shown us it's that never assume the impossible isn't possible.
Trade:
When it comes to trade, Asia appears to prefer Clinton as she is seen as a case of "better the devil you know".
Both candidates have already indicated they won't push through with the Obama-backed Trans Pacific Partnership agreement but some US media have reported that if elected Mrs Clinton may be willing to support it in a different form.
Asian economies like Malaysia and Vietnam have most to benefit from the TPP being ratified.
Meanwhile, a Trump presidency is being seen as a major negative for Asia's trade prospects. The most likely scenario, according to research house Capital Economics, is the use of "the threat of tariffs as leverage in negotiations."
Mr Trump has said he'll slap a 45% tariff import on all US imports from China. Capital Economics says this would hurt China's electronics sector, which accounts for 50% of total Chinese exports to the US.
Visas and immigration:
Again, a Clinton presidency appears to be Asia's pick when it comes to immigration and visas.
Capital Economics says that if Mr Trump were to be elected president, then his plans to "punish American companies that outsource jobs abroad" would hurt countries like the Philippines and India.
Both countries have major outsourcing industries which rely on American firms being able to continue to employ the millions of Filipinos and Indians who have seen their livelihoods improve as a result of increased wages in the outsourcing sector.
Mr Trump has also warned of banning immigrants from countries where there is a "proven history of terrorism against the US or allies". This is likely to hit countries like India, the Philippines and possibly Indonesia.
Impact on shares and currencies:
The markets have spoken - Asian shares fell dramatically last week on news that the gap between Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton was closing. That's because a Trump presidency is seen as volatile for share markets and currencies.
Conversely, a Clinton presidency is seen as net positive for markets - for similar reasons as we've discussed above. After the FBI said that Mrs Clinton will not face charges over a new batch of emails on her private email server, Asian shares and the US dollar jumped in Asian trade against the Japanese yen.
Bear in mind market volatility should be expected in the lead up to an election and in its aftermath - so don't read too much into the daily see-saw of shares and currencies.
Longer term trends and trajectories are far more important, as are the economic policies the new president will back to support growth in the US. If the US continues on its recovery path, that could help to increase global demand, and lift global growth.
So what next?
All of the political shenanigans may not have mattered in the past, as the US has always been the dominant economic and political superpower for the world, as Eeswar Prasad, Professor in the Dyson School at Cornell University, and the author of "Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi" points out.
"But times have changed," he writes. "If the US voluntarily withdraws from the world, one country - China - is better positioned than any other to fill the void."
It may already be happening, judging by the visitors China's president Xi Jinping has had over the last few weeks.
First, Filipino leader Rodrigo Duterte - former foe, now turned friend. And then hot on his heels - the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. Both spoke of warmer ties between Beijing and their countries, and both lauded China's attempts to reach out to South East Asia by funding infrastructure projects and investing in South East Asian companies.
Still, the US hasn't lost out to China just yet. In many parts of Asia, China is increasingly viewed with some envy as well as suspicion. Skirmishes over the South China Sea have raised tensions with Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
But as Mr Prasad points out, "China may offer a poor alternative for global leadership, but it's hard not to see it as an increasingly credible one."
As American voters decide who their next leader is, global influence may not be their top priority. But the impact of whoever they choose will be felt in this region for years to come.
Samsung raided in political corruption probe www.bbc.com
South Korean prosecutors have raided the offices of Samsung Electronics as part of a probe into the political scandal around President Park Geun-hye.
The prosecutors are investigating allegations that Samsung gave money to the daughter of Choi Soon-sil, a close friend of the president.
Ms Choi is accused of using their friendship to interfere in politics and solicit business donations.
Samsung confirmed the raids to the BBC saying they had "no further comment".
President Park has apologized for her ties to Ms Choi but faces mounting calls to resign.
In this latest twist of the scandal that's been rocking South Korea for weeks, prosecutors are investigating allegations that Samsung might have provided €2.8m euros ($3.1m, £2.5m) to a company co-owned by Ms Choi and her daughter, to bankroll the daughter's equestrian training in Germany.
Prosecutors are also reported to have raided the offices of the Korea Equestrian Federation and the Korea Horse Affairs Association.
Ms Choi was arrested on 3 November and charged with fraud and abuse of power.
Over the past days, tens of thousands of South Koreans have protested in the capital, Seoul, to demand the resignation of President Park over the corruption row.
Ms Choi, a long-time friend of Ms Park's, is the daughter of Choi Tae-min, a shadowy quasi-religious leader who was closely linked to Ms Park's father, then-president Park Chung-hee.
She is alleged to have pushed businesses to donate millions of dollars to foundations she controlled, helped choose presidential aides, and even picked the president's clothes.
Ms Park has since apologised on TV for allowing her long-standing friend inappropriate access to government policy-making. The president admitted she had let Ms Choi edit her speeches.
President Park has already replaced her prime minster, reshuffled her cabinet and dismissed several aides, but there are growing calls for her resignation or impeachment.
The scandal has left Ms Park with an approval rating of just 5%.
Choo Mi-ae, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, said she did not believe the apology was genuine and called on her to accept a new prime minister recommended by parliament.
Ms Park became her country's first female president when she was elected in a close-run contest in December 2012.
Russia, China agree to jointly develop Far East www3.nhk.or.jp
Russia and China have agreed on a range of economic cooperation, including the development of Russia's Far East.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev welcomed Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to St. Petersburg on Monday for a conference on trade and investment.
Business leaders from both countries also attended the conference.
During the meeting, Russia's major oil company Rosneft agreed to sell a 20 percent stake in its subsidiary to a Chinese company for 1.1 billion dollars.
The subsidiary has been developing the Verkhnechonsk oil field in East Siberia.
The oil field has an estimated reserve of 1.2 billion barrels and is expected to be a key source of Russia's oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region.
The deal was signed by executives from both companies in the presence of the two prime ministers.
At a news conference, Medvedev said that Russia and China reaffirmed their commitment to jointly developing Russia's Far East region.
Russia is also seeking cooperation from Japan in the energy sector and in the development of its Far East.
Analysts say Russia aims to obtain as much economic cooperation as possible from the 2 countries while its economy is in a dire situation due to sanctions by Western nations over Ukrainian issues.
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