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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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ECB extends bond-buying scheme but at slower pace www.bbc.com

 
The European Central Bank has said it will extend its bond-buying programme until at least December 2017, but cut its purchases by €20bn a month.
The €80bn-a-month quantitative easing scheme had been due to end in March, although the bank had been expected to extend it for at least six months.
In a move that surprised markets, the ECB said it would only buy bonds worth €60bn a month from April.
The bank also kept its key interest rate unchanged at zero as expected.
Yields on most eurozone government bond yields rose slightly after the changes were announced, before returning to levels hit just before the statement.
Germany's 10-year bond yield - the benchmark for the eurozone - was at 0.43% after falling as low as 0.37%. The return has risen since the summer after falling into negative territory for the first time in June.
After rising initially, the euro fell sharply against all major currencies including the US dollar.
The ECB said that if the economic outlook "becomes less favourable", it would expand the size or length of its bond-buying programme.
Mario Draghi, the bank's president, told a press conference in Frankfurt that "tapering has not been discussed".
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, described the QE move as a reasonable compromise.
"The stimulus will provide a further boost the region's recovery in the face of elevated levels of political uncertainty, but also recognises the encouraging recent economic data flow and the growing constraint on the amount of assets eligible for purchase."
'Alice in Wonderland'
Neil Williams, chief economist at Hermes Investment Management, said the changes meant that the ECB's "liquidity sink is still filling up".
"By tapering its monthly asset purchases from €80bn down to €60bn, [Draghi] is still looking to inject an extra €540bn in QE. To put this into perspective, this easily surpasses in equivalent terms, the combined GDPs of Greece and Portugal for example."
However, Kathleen Brooks of City Index described the ECB meeting as a "financial version of Alice in Wonderland" given some of the changes the bank was forced to make to its bond-buying scheme.
"It will now include bond purchases below its own deposit rate, which is already minus 0.4%. Thus, the ECB will be paying to hold some bonds that will be included in its QE programme. The craziness doesn't stop there; some of those bonds have a negative yield because of the ECB's QE programme in the first place," she said.
"The ECB has had to buy negative-yielding bonds because it has bought all the eligible higher yielding stuff, so it has no choice."
Although the risk of deflation in the eurozone had largely disappeared, Mr Draghi said that "uncertainty prevails".
The bank raised its forecasts slightly for next year and now expects inflation of 1.3% - still some distance below its 2% target - and growth of 1.7%.
Inflation is expected to be 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% the following year, with growth steady at 1.6% for both years.
The bank also left at zero its refinancing rate, at which it lends money to commercial banks, and -0.4% on deposits it takes from banks. That negative rate aims to encourage banks to lend money rather than hoard it at the ECB.
The decision to extend the QE scheme helped shares in Italian banks continue to rise, with the sector on track for its best week since at least 2009.
 
 
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BOJ, ECB to study virtual currency technology www3.nhk.or.jp

 
The Bank of Japan says it is launching a joint study with the European Central Bank into the possible application of a technology used for Bitcoin and other virtual currencies to market infrastructure.
 
The Japanese central bank announced the agreement with the ECB on Wednesday.
 
It says this will be the first joint study of its kind by major central banks. The main findings are expected to be released next year.
 
The study will involve the application of online distributed-ledger technology, or blockchain, to financial market payment systems.
 
Blockchain-based systems are believed to be safer and less costly than using a centralized database.
 
Some financial institutions and technology firms are already working towards introducing the technology.
 
The Bank of Canada is considering using it for its settlement systems.
 
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently expressed skepticism about introducing the technology for its own settlement system. But analysts say the BOJ is trying to assess the mid- to long-term possibilities.
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Cabinet approves list of energy projects to commence next year www.en.montsame.mn

 
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ At its regular meeting on Wednesday, the cabinet approved the list of projects covering spheres of energy, road and transport, to be realized in 2017. Agreements on implementation of these programs and projects will be concluded within the first quarter of 2017 with the selected investors to execute the project on Turn Key contracts.
 
The list incorporates the 250MWT Thermal Transmission Expansion Project on the Third Thermal Power Station; the 50MWT Thermal Transmission Expansion Project on Choibalsan Thermal Power Plant; Project on Baganuur-Choir Overhead Transmission Grids and Expansion Project on Baganuur Substation; Project on Construction of Choir Substation and Expansion Project; Project on 35KWT Overhead Transmission Grids connecting Khushuut mine with Altai soum of Khovd Province and Project on Construction of Substation; Project on Construction of Choibalsan-Khuut 192 km railroad, Project on Construction of 234km railroad connecting Khuut mine and Bichigt border checkpoint; Project on Construction of 281 km railroad connecting Zuunbayan station and Khangi border checkpoint; and Project on Construction of 45.3 km railroad connecting Nariinsukhait mine and Shiveekhuren border checkpoint.
 
 
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Japan Inc warns of global trade contraction under Trump presidency: Reuters poll www.reuters.com

 
Corporate Japan is bracing for a rocky ride under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, a Reuters poll showed, with well over a third of firms seeing a contraction in global trade as concerns about a rise in U.S. protectionism threaten to shatter a fragile economic recovery.
 
Fully three-quarters of Japanese companies expect no expansion in world trade, highlighting festering anxiety that Trump's fiery protectionist rhetoric during campaigning might turn into growth-sapping policies through his four-year term that begins in January.
 
Throughout the campaign that led to his upset election win, the Republican president-elect pledged to redraw trade deals to win back American jobs. He has threatened Mexico and China with punitive tariffs that some economists have warned could spark a trade war that could potentially roll back decades of liberalization.
 
The Reuters Corporate Survey, conducted Nov. 22-Dec. 2, underscored such concerns.
 
The monthly poll of 531 big and mid-size firms found 40 percent expected global trade to shrink in the medium-term, 4 percent saw full-fledged trade friction, while 32 percent saw no change. Only one quarter predicted global trade will expand under Trump.
 
That would mark a deterioration in global trade, which has expanded at a modest rate below 3 percent in recent years after bouncing from a plunge in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.
 
Trump has threatened to ditch the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, between the United States, Canada and Mexico, arguing the agreement has sent U.S. manufacturing jobs to Mexico. He has also said he would withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, an ambitious Asia-Pacific trade pact linking 12 countries including the United States and Japan.
 
In written responses, companies voiced concerns about the fate of TPP, NAFTA and Mexico, where Japanese automakers have plants, and how a waning American presence could pave the way for China to wield more influence worldwide.
 
"Reversal of free trade is a concern for our business, but what's more worrying is a weaker U.S. military presence in East Asia, which could embolden China to take control of the power vacuum in the region," wrote a manager at an electrical machinery company.
 
Trump "has declared exiting TPP and pushing bilateral trade pacts, and I'm worried about a shift in (global) trade regime towards one led by China," wrote a manager at a chemicals firm.
 
Managers answered on condition of anonymity in the survey, which was conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research. Around 250 answered questions on the impact of a Trump presidency.
 
The uncertainty around Trump's trade policies adds to the risks for Japan's economy, which is struggling to mount a sustainable recovery amid slow global demand and sluggish domestic consumption.
 
UNPREDICTABLE
 
The survey found that three-quarters of Japanese companies saw no change in their investment stance towards U.S., while 14 percent said it would wane and the remaining 11 percent saw it growing.
 
Previous Reuters surveys taken during the election campaign had shown a majority of firms believed Trump would be bad for business in the United States, and that Japanese corporate appetite for investing in the U.S. would wane.
 
"Expectation is rising that Trump will adopt business-friendly steps such as infrastructure investment, tax cuts and deregulation," said Hidenobu Tokuda, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute, who reviewed the survey results. "That said, companies remain cautious about what he says and does, which is all uncertain and utterly unpredictable."
 
The survey also found that companies worried both about a strong yen and a weak yen under a Trump presidency, suggesting there's no consensus on what sort of currency changes are in store.
 
The yen has nearly reversed all of this year's gains since the U.S. election - easing concerns about Japan's export-reliant economy - on expectations that Trump's proposed reflationary economic policies would push up U.S. interest rates.
 
Sixty-two percent said the dollar would move in a 100-110 yen range next year - slightly stronger than around a 111-114 yen range seen during the survey period. Just 27 percent saw it in the 110-120 yen and 2 percent said it would weaken beyond 120 yen. Eight percent saw it strengthening to the 90-100 yen range.
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Government to formalize EUR 70 million loan from IIB www.en.montsame.mn

 
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ On Wednesday, the Cabinet authorized the Minister of Finance to sign a Loan Agreement of up to EUR 70 million with the International Investment Bank. The loan term is up to seven year and has 3.89 percent interest rate.
 
The government intends to spend the loan funding for reduction of credit service costs and lengthening average period for loan repayments.
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Cabinet presenting draft resolution on risk prevention measures regarding DB www.en.montsame.mn

 
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ The Development Bank (DB) of Mongolia, since its establishment in 2011, have been operating with active assets of MNT 7.0 trillion. During the course of its operation, the bank has financed some 2,000 projects, and has liabilities of MNT 5.9 trillion.
 
The liabilities balance exceeds the amount of assets. In accordance with the Law on Development Bang of Mongolia, the liabilities must not exceed the amount of equity multiplied by 50.
 
If the Development Bank fails to observe its duty before the law, the risk of the loan payables to be recalled before the agreed date can be higher. Therefore, in order to prevent from such risks, the cabinet approved the draft parliamentary resolution on “some measures towards the Development Bank of Mongolia”, and resolved on Wednesday to immediately submit to the State Great Khural.
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Travel study reveals changing behaviour among young and old www.bbc.com

 
A major new study into how people travel around England shows a big difference between the generations.
Young people increasingly are ditching the car, whilst older people, especially women, drive more than ever.
The Independent Transport Commission (ITC) also found that people are making fewer trips than they did twenty years ago, but those trips are longer.
Men under 35 are the most likely to shun the car, whilst women over 60 are driving more than ever.
One of the authors, Dr Matthew Niblett, director of the ITC, says: "This report uncovers seismic shifts in patterns of individual travel behaviour."
Here is what they found and this is all per person per year.
Overall: The number of trips English residents are making per person has fallen by 15% between 1995 and 2014. However, the average trip distance (all modes) has increased by 10% and the average trip time by almost 15%.
Rich vs Poor: The gap between rich and poor car driver miles is still large but has been narrowing. For the richest income quintile, car driver miles have fallen by 10% between 1996 and 2014 (to about 4500 per year); however, for the poorest quintile, miles driven have risen by almost 20% (to about 1200 per year).
Young vs Old: Young men (under 35) car driver miles have almost halved between 1996 and 2014 (to about 3700 per year), while for women over-60, car driver miles have more than doubled over the same period (to about 1800 per year).
London: In London the fall in car distance travelled per person has been dramatic, falling by almost a third in outer London, and by more than half for inner London.
Rail: The one thing people are doing a lot more is catching the train, despite the fact that even allowing for inflation, fares have gone up by 25% since 1995. Average rail mileage per person has continued to rise sharply. This is due to a greater percentage of the population travelling by rail, rather than existing travellers making more or longer journeys.
Dr Niblett said: "We are seeing that the historic correlations between incomes, costs and travel are weakening. An inter-generational divide in travel behaviour is growing.
"For young adults, cars are increasingly viewed as utilitarian appliances, rather than aspirational goods. And there are also growing differences in travel patterns between rural and urban areas."
 
 
 
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Qoros, Cambridge University join hands to build solar-powered car www.chinadaily.com.cn

 
Qoros, a joint venture between Chery and Israel Corp, is to join hands with Cambridge University to build a car for its student group Eco Racing to participate in a solar-powered car race next year, said the Chinese automaker on Monday.
 
However,the automaker did not specify what technological support it would offer to the group that is to participate in the 3,000 km World Solar Challenge in Australia in October 2017.
 
Established in 2007, the group, often known as the CUER, has since been attending the biennial event that is designed to promote research on solar-powered cars.
 
It attracts teams from around the world, most of which are fielded by universities or corporations although some are fielded by high schools.
 
Besides solar cars, Qoros has worked out a two-stage electric car and hybrids program.
 
One fruit of the first stage is an electric concept car, Qoros 3 QLECTRIQ EV. Having made its premiere in April, the car can travel 350 kilometers on one charge and its battery can get 80 percent charged within an hour.
 
The automaker said the production model will start running off the assembly line in 2017.
 
The second stage will feature an electric car platform that is still under development.
 
Qoros said more innovative technology will be applied to the platform and models based on it will be unveiled starting 2020.
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Trump Win Set Off $2 Trillion Shock Rotation to Stocks From Debt www.bloomberg.com

 
Donald Trump’s election win sent a $2 trillion shock wave through global markets over the past month.
 
That’s how much equities’ global market value has jumped. And that’s about the size of the loss in worth of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index of bonds, over the worst month for global bonds in dollar terms on record. Other assets were roiled, too: the yen plunged the most in 21 years against the dollar. It all amounted to a complete reversal of the playbooks mapped out by a bevy of analysts and investors who had anticipated a Brexit-style rush for havens in the event of a surprise Republican presidential victory.
 
Those projections did pan out -- for about eight hours, when the yen and Treasuries advanced as the vote-count momentum favored Trump. Then the great reflationary rotation trade started, as Carl Icahn started snapping up S&P 500 futures and other investors decided that the likely new U.S. leader’s promises to cut taxes, boost spending and slash regulation would revive inflation and economic growth. Oh, and potentially force more aggressive interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
 
How lasting a pattern the new market dynamics will be is an open question, with more than a month to go before Trump takes office and plenty of potential roadblocks to his fiscal and regulatory proposals in a fractious U.S. Congress. For now, eyes turn toward next week’s Fed meeting to set the tone for the outlook as far as monetary policy goes.
 
“It’s astounding how big the move has been,” said James Audiss, Sydney-based senior wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd., which oversees about $7.5 billion. “It’s been incredible. Now it all hinges on the Fed and the pace of those rate hikes, but for now the markets are happy to be risk-on.”
 
The dollar has jumped to a decade high relative to major peers and three major U.S. stock indexes last month reached records on the same day for the first time in more than 20 years.
 
For stocks, most developed markets have surged while several emerging ones submerged, led by Ghana and Mexico. Russia and Venezuela soared, though that was more due to OPEC’s pact driving up oil prices. Of 94 primary stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg, more than two-thirds climbed in local currency terms, with a median gain of 2 percent.
 
The greenback’s strength -- and the U.S.’s size at $24.9 trillion out of a total $66.3 trillion -- makes for a slightly cloudier picture looking at equity values. Of the 20 largest markets, comprising 90 percent of world capitalization, seven declined in dollar value, but for five of them that was all down to currency shifts, measured through Dec. 6.
 
When it comes to bonds, only Bahrain and Russia eked out gains in the Bloomberg Barclays global benchmark, while the 20 largest national debt markets all recorded losses -- led by Japan and Mexico, each down more than 8 percent.
 
The question investors now face is: With so much change already priced in a month after Trump’s victory, how much more is there to come?
 
Icahn, once considered a potential for Trump’s cabinet, says he wouldn’t be a buyer right now, while acknowledging he thought the stock rally was looking stretched some time ago.
 
“The night that they knocked it down a thousand points I went and bought stock that night, I thought that was crazy,” he said Wednesday in an interview with Scarlet Fu and Oliver Renick on “Bloomberg Markets.” “I’m not going to say run out and buy stocks today, because I think it’s run a little ahead of where it should be.”
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Honda confirms new $436 million China factory amid sales surge www.reuters.com

 
Honda Motor's (7267.T) joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group (0489.HK) will invest roughly 3 billion yuan ($436 million) in a new factory in China, the Japanese automaker said in a statement on its website on Thursday.
 
The statement confirms a Reuters report in October that cited sources saying the automaker would build a new factory by 2019 with annual production capacity of 120,000 vehicles.
 
Honda has experienced explosive growth in China during the past two years despite an economic slowdown, luring consumers with strong new offerings in the rapidly growing sport-utility vehicle (SUV) segment. Honda sales have increased 28.3 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2016, it said on Friday.
 
The Dongfeng Honda venture, one of Honda's two JVs in China, is already nearing its capacity limits at its two existing factories, targeting sales of 450,000 vehicles for 2016 against current annual capacity of 480,000.
 
The plant will have capacity to build new energy vehicles, the Chinese term for battery electric or plug-in hybrid cars, the statement said.
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