1 MONGOLIA MARKS CENTENNIAL WITH A NEW COURSE FOR CHANGE WWW.EASTASIAFORUM.ORG PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      2 E-MART OPENS FIFTH STORE IN ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA, TARGETING K-FOOD CRAZE WWW.BIZ.CHOSUN.COM PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      3 JAPAN AND MONGOLIA FORGE HISTORIC DEFENSE PACT UNDER THIRD NEIGHBOR STRATEGY WWW.ARMYRECOGNITION.COM  PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      4 CENTRAL BANK LOWERS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.2% WWW.UBPOST.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      5 L. OYUN-ERDENE: EVERY CITIZEN WILL RECEIVE 350,000 MNT IN DIVIDENDS WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      6 THE BILL TO ELIMINATE THE QUOTA FOR FOREIGN WORKERS IN MONGOLIA HAS BEEN SUBMITTED WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      7 THE SECOND NATIONAL ONCOLOGY CENTER TO BE CONSTRUCTED IN ULAANBAATAR WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      8 GREEN BOND ISSUED FOR WASTE RECYCLING WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      9 BAGANUUR 50 MW BATTERY STORAGE POWER STATION SUPPLIES ENERGY TO CENTRAL SYSTEM WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      10 THE PENSION AMOUNT INCREASED BY SIX PERCENT WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      КОКС ХИМИЙН ҮЙЛДВЭРИЙН БҮТЭЭН БАЙГУУЛАЛТЫГ ИРЭХ ОНЫ ХОЁРДУГААР УЛИРАЛД ЭХЛҮҮЛНЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     "ЭРДЭНЭС ТАВАНТОЛГОЙ” ХК-ИЙН ХУВЬЦАА ЭЗЭМШИГЧ ИРГЭН БҮРД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГ ӨНӨӨДӨР ОЛГОНО WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГИЙН ОРЛОГО 2040 ОНД 38 ИХ НАЯДАД ХҮРЭХ ТӨСӨӨЛӨЛ ГАРСАН WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ЭРДЭНЭС ОЮУ ТОЛГОЙ” ХХК-ИАС ХЭРЛЭН ТООНО ТӨСЛИЙГ ӨМНӨГОВЬ АЙМАГТ ТАНИЛЦУУЛЛАА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     Л.ОЮУН-ЭРДЭНЭ: ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГААС НЭГ ИРГЭНД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГИЙН ХАДГАЛАМЖ ҮҮСЛЭЭ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ENTRÉE RESOURCES” 2 ЖИЛ ГАРУЙ ҮРГЭЛЖИЛСЭН АРБИТРЫН МАРГААНД ЯЛАЛТ БАЙГУУЛАВ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ORANO MINING”-ИЙН ГЭРЭЭ БОЛОН ГАШУУНСУХАЙТ-ГАНЦМОД БООМТЫН ТӨСЛИЙН АСУУДЛААР ЗАСГИЙН ГАЗАР ХУРАЛДАЖ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     АЖИЛЧДЫН САРЫН ГОЛЧ ЦАЛИН III УЛИРЛЫН БАЙДЛААР ₮2 САЯ ОРЧИМ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     PROGRESSIVE EQUITY RESEARCH: 2025 ОН “PETRO MATAD” КОМПАНИД ЭЭЛТЭЙ БАЙХААР БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     2026 ОНЫГ ДУУСТАЛ ГАДААД АЖИЛТНЫ ТОО, ХУВЬ ХЭМЖЭЭГ ХЯЗГААРЛАХГҮЙ БАЙХ ХУУЛИЙН ТӨСӨЛ ӨРГӨН МЭДҮҮЛЭВ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19    

Events

Name organizer Where
MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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Fair trade commission raids Amazon Japan www3.nhk.or.jp

The Japan Fair Trade Commission has investigated the local unit of American e-commerce firm Amazon.com on suspicion of unfair trading practices.
 
Amazon Japan is suspected of having pressured retailers to offer products at the same or lower prices than they offer on rival sites.
The company allegedly presented retailers with these conditions before they concluded a deal.
 
Amazon Japan officials have declined to comment on the case.
 
Amazon's business practices have also come under scrutiny in Europe.
European Union anti-trust authorities are investigating the firm's e-book business.
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Walmart to buy Jet.com for $3.3bn www.bbc.com

Walmart has announced plans to buy e-commerce site Jet.com for $3.3bn (£2.5bn) in a move that could help boost its online retail sales.
Walmart has been struggling to compete against online retailers like Amazon.
Jet.com has soared in the e-commerce space since it launched in 2015, undercutting some of Amazon's prices.
Doug McMillon, Walmart's chief executive, said the deal would help accelerate the growth of Jet.com and Walmart's own website.
"We're looking for ways to lower prices, broaden our assortment and offer the simplest, easiest shopping experience because that's what our customers want," said Mr McMillon. "We believe the acquisition of Jet accelerates our progress across these priorities."
Walmart will pay $3bn in cash and $300m in stock.
Walmart and Jet.com will remain separate companies, but will co-operate over technology.
Jet.com launched in July 2015 by entrepreneur Marc Lore. Mr Lore sold his last company Quidsi, the parent company of a family of websites including Diapers.com and Soap.com, which was sold to Amazon in 2011 for $545m.
Jet.com started off using a pricing strategy that offered discounts for placing larger orders and charged a $50 subscription fee.
The subscription model was dropped after three months.
"The combination of Walmart's retail expertise, purchasing scale, sourcing capabilities, distribution footprint, and digital assets - together with the team, technology and business we have built here at Jet - will allow us to deliver more value to customers," said Mr Lore.
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China sees effects of coal capacity cuts: Top economic planner www.chinadaily.com

BEIJING - China's top economic planner said on Monday that the country has made progress in reducing excess coal capacity by advancing economic structural reform.
 
Coal output declined 9.7 percent year on year to reach 1.63 billion tons in the first half of 2016, widening from a 5.8-percent drop recorded in the same period last year, said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on its website.
 
Coal enterprises and major electric power plants saw their coal stockpiles drop as of the end of June, down 8.6 percent and 16.6 percent, respectively, according to the NDRC.
 
The decline in coal stocks resulted in a narrowed decline for major coal business profits, reaching 3.5 billion yuan ($525 million) in the first five months, down 73.2 percent year on year, compared with a 92.5-percent drop in the first quarter.
 
The NDRC attributed the progress to the government's continued efforts in reducing production output, eliminating outdated capacity and promoting mergers, reorganization, and industry upgrades.
 
Meanwhile, coal consumption nationwide edged down 5.1 percent year on year to reach 1.82 billion tons in H1, according to the NDRC.
 
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of steel and coal. The two industries have long been plagued by overcapacity and felt the pinch even more in the past two years as the economy cooled and demand has fallen.
 
The Chinese government made reducing excess capacity a top priority in late 2015 at the Central Economic Work Conference and put it at the center of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
 
China plans to cut steel and coal capacity by about 10 percent -- as much as 150 million tons of steel and half a billion tons of coal -- in the next few years, with funds set aside to help displaced workers.
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Oil prices rise on renewed output freeze talks, but fundamentals remain weak www.reuters.com

Oil prices rose in early trading on Monday, lifted by reports of renewed talks by some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrain output.
 
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures CLc1 were at $42.01 per barrel at 0022 GMT (08:22 p.m. EDT), up 21 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.
 
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $44.40 per barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.29 percent.
 
Analysts said that the price rise came on the back of renewed calls by some OPEC members to freeze production in a bid to rein in output consistently outpacing demand.
 
"OPEC members including Venezuela, Ecuador and Kuwait are said to be behind this latest reincarnation. But just like previous endeavors, it seems doomed to fail, given key OPEC members (think: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran) persist in their battle for market share, ramping up exports apace," said Matt Smith of U.S.-based ClipperData in a note.
 
Yet in the absence of an agreement, a fight for market share via high output and price discounts is still weighing on oil markets.
 
Iraq has dropped the September official selling price (OSP) for Basra Light crude to Asia by $1.00 to minus $2.30 a barrel against the average of Oman/Dubai quotes from the previous month, the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) said on Monday, making it the latest exporter to drop its prices.
 
Meanwhile, oil drilling in the In the United States keeps increasing.
 
"Another increase in the rig count in the U.S. also weighed on sentiment. The Baker Hughes data show rigs operating in the U.S. are the highest since March (at 381)," ANZ bank said on Monday.
 
On the demand side, analysts at AB Bernstein said that oil demand growth had been strong in 2015 and the first half of this year, at 2.0 and 1.5 percent respectively, but that the outlook was weakening.
 
"In July following the UK Brexit vote, the IMF downgraded global growth by 10 basis points (bp) in 2016 and 20 bp in 2017. This has negative implications for (oil) demand," the analysts said.
 
"We expect that demand growth could slow in the second half of 2016 to around 1.1 percent and slow further in 2017 to a below consensus 1.0 percent on the current global growth outlook," AB Bernstein added.
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Vale looking to raise $10B through Chinese streaming deal www.mining.com

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is getting more creative in its debt-reduction plans, by bolstering cash flow through a metal streaming deal with Chinese companies.
 
The revelation by Reuters on Wednesday came via un-named sources, who say that under terms of the arrangement, Vale would sell part of its future output to the Chinese over 30 years.
 
Hit by its deepest quarterly loss ever, and slumping iron ore prices, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said in February it wants to reduce its net debt to $15 billion within 18 months and would look at selling core assets to do it. The Samarco dam collapse in November last year, which killed 19 people and became Brazil’s worst environmental disaster, also forced Vale to book a write-down of $132 million in unpaid dividends and royalties.
 
Among the candidates for divestiture is Vale's fertilizer business. U.S.-based Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS), the world’s largest producer of phosphate fertilizer, is said to be in talks with Vale to acquire the Brazilian mining giant’s fertilizer unit, in a deal worth about $3 billion.
 
The world's biggest iron ore producer already has an agreement with Silver Wheaton (NYSE, TSX:SLW) regarding its Salobo copper mine in Brazil. On Tuesday Vale and Silver Wheaton tweaked the deal, so that the portion sold to Silver Wheaton rises to 75 percent from 50 percent. Vale will receive an upfront payment of $800 million.
 
Iron ore prices slumped again on Friday to below US$60 a tonne, despite breaking through $60 resistance on July 28 on the back of strong Chinese steel prices, and expectations of an investigation into dumping by Brazilian and Australian iron producers of product into China.
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France's Valeo, Ichikoh to develop automotive digital mirror www.asia.nikkei.com

TOKYO -- French autoparts maker Valeo and Ichikoh Industries will jointly develop an onboard camera system for cars that replaces the traditional side- and rear-view mirrors, with an eye toward starting mass production in 2018.
 
Japan's transport ministry recently revised safety guidelines to allow these digital mirrors -- camera images displayed on monitors -- spurring the auto industry to proceed with development.
 
Valeo, which took a 20% stake in Ichikoh in 2000, has worked previously with the Japanese company on lighting systems. The pair will broaden their partnership to the emerging field of digital mirrors, uniting Valeo's expertise in sensors and Ichikoh's experience with mirrors. Valeo will develop the imaging system linking to the liquid crystal display monitors while Ichikoh will handle the mirror casing.
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China launches first mobile telecoms satellite from Beijing www.bbc.com

China has launched its first mobile telecommunications satellite.
The Tiantong-01 satellite will establish a mobile network serving China, the Middle East, Africa and other areas, the state run Xinhua news agency reported.
It was sent into space after midnight local time in Beijing (16:00 GMT) on Sunday.
The ground service will be operated by China Telecom, which is owned by the Chinese state.
The country is also preparing for the next round of its manned space mission.
China's science revolution
On Saturday two launch rockets arrived at a launch centre in northwest China. They will carry a second module of the country's planned space station - replacing Tiangong 1 which has ended its service - and a staffed spacecraft called Shenzou-11.
China sent its first astronaut into space in 2003, and since then has taken huge advancements.
The head designer of China's lunar missions told the BBC earlier this year that China plans to settle on the Moon and explore Mars.
The country's space programme is led by the military.
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Sony to issue 100bn yen in bonds www.asia.nikkei.com

TOKYO -- Sony plans to raise some 100 billion yen ($982 million) by issuing bonds to institutional investors, perhaps in September.

The Japanese corporate icon wants to be ready to pounce on future acquisitions and make other growth investments.

Terms and conditions of the issuance, including coupon payments, are yet to be finalized. But Sony will likely issue several straight bonds that mature in five to 10 years. Depending on demand, the total issuance could be raised to 150 billion yen or so.

It will be the first time since June 2013 for Sony to issue straight bonds. Three years ago, it raised 150 billion yen from small investors.

Sony projects its operating profit for the year ending March to reach 300 billion yen, up 2%. For the following year, it expects its fattest profit in two decades -- 500 billion yen or higher.

With PlayStation 4, a home gaming console, selling well, Sony wants to venture into new businesses, such as artificial-intelligence-based robotics.

Under the negative interest rate policy introduced by the Bank of Japan earlier this year, Japanese businesses are becoming keen to issue bonds. SoftBank is considering 1 trillion yen in hybrid bonds, while Panasonic has announced its intention to raise 400 billion yen through a straight bond issuance.

(Nikkei)

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Panama Papers: Pieth says officials are in denial as he quits www.bbc.com

The Swiss anti-corruption expert, Mark Pieth, has told the BBC he resigned from the Panama Papers commission because of government interference.
Mr Pieth said officials told him that they would have final say on whether to publish the panel's findings on the offshore tax evasion scandal.
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, also resigned.
The seven-person panel was set up by Panama's government in April 2016 to improve transparency.
Speaking on the BBC's Newshour programme, Mr Pieth said he had received a letter from Panama's authorities stating that they would have the final say on whether to publish the panel's report.

"They told us they were going to decide in the end whether (the report) is going to be publicised or not," he said.
"I think that the official Panamanians were in a state of denial. They were basically saying 'well, what we've been seeing in the Panama Papers is something that you observe everywhere in the world.'"
Mr Stiglitz also told Reuters news agency he was concerned that the panel's final report would not be published.
"We can only infer that the government is facing pressure from those who are making profits from the current non-transparent financial system in Panama," he said.

Mr Stiglitz said the government tried to 'undermine' the panel
In a statement, Panama's Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to "internal differences" and said it had a "strong and real commitment to transparency and international cooperation".
The Panama Papers were investigated by hundreds of investigative journalists, including staff from the BBC.
The documents were leaked from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca and revealed how clients from around the world were able to launder money, dodge sanctions and avoid tax.
Those implicated included politicians, current and former national leaders, sports stars and celebrities.
Mossack Fonseca said it had been hacked by servers based abroad and filed a complaint with the Panamanian attorney general's office.
The company said it did not act illegally and that information was being misrepresented.

Eleven million documents held by the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca were passed to German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, which then shared them with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. BBC Panorama and UK newspaper The Guardian were among 107 media organisations in 76 countries which analysed the documents. The BBC does not know the identity of the source
The documents show how the company helped clients launder money, dodge sanctions and evade tax
Mossack Fonseca says it has operated beyond reproach for 40 years and never been accused or charged with criminal wrongdoing

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Mongolia Faces a Debt Crisis www.wsj.com

That Mongolia could face an external debt crisis seemed inconceivable just a few years ago. The country of three million people is so rich in copper, gold, coal, iron and other mineral resources that some dubbed it the Kuwait of Asia. Yet today Mongolia faces a real risk of becoming the first mineral-rich country to fall prey to the “resource curse” before it even develops its resources.

The crisis traces back to 2012, when a new Mongolian coalition government took office facing extremely favorable economic conditions, including high mineral prices and strong demand from China. Gross domestic product had grown by 17.3% in 2011 and by another 12.3% in 2012, making the country a global leader.

Investment flowed into Mongolia as a result of an agreement with Rio Tinto to develop the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper-and-gold resource in the Gobi Desert. There was also strong interest in the equally massive Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit in that region, along with other coal, iron and copper deposits.

But the new government had won election by making highly populist promises, and this led to a contradictory agenda. On the one hand, the government attempted to renegotiate the already signed Oyu Tolgoi agreement, and in general started seeking better terms from foreign mining firms. This led to a quick drop in investment, growth and revenues. At the same time, the government rapidly expanded spending on housing, government salaries, social welfare and pensions.

The only way the government could finance the resulting large budget deficit was by borrowing. For the first time, Mongolia became a significant global issuer of commercial paper. Between 2012 and June 2016, the government raised $3.6 billion, roughly one-third of GDP, on global bond markets, paying high interest rates. Adding in the swap arrangements with the Chinese central bank and other loan guarantees, Mongolia’s external debt position by 2015 became highly precarious, with total debt of more than 70% of GDP.

There was also a massive buildup of domestic debt. In a throwback to the planned-economy era, the banking sector once again became a major financier of government programs. Total loans in the economy doubled in the first two years of the 2012 government’s term, and the money supply expanded at an extraordinarily rapid pace. Nonperforming loans began to build up.

The state-owned Development Bank of Mongolia, established in 2011, tapped international bond markets to finance infrastructure projects and other programs whose capacity to generate an adequate financial return was far from clear. At the same time, the central bank launched two large direct-lending initiatives through the commercial banks. A “price support program” offered low-interest loans to businesses, while a subsidized mortgage-lending program propped up Mongolia’s real-estate and construction sectors.

As a result, direct central bank claims on commercial banks, which had long been near zero, soared to more than four trillion Mongolian togrog, or more almost $2 billion, by the end of 2013. These programs have been kept off the government’s budget, another throwback to the planned-economy days.

By 2014, international financial institutions expressed measured but clear concern about the deteriorating economic situation. The central bank slowed monetary expansion and budgets were tightened somewhat. This coincided with a continued collapse in foreign investment and a steady decline in global mineral prices due to China’s slowdown. As a result, Mongolia’s growth slowed sharply to 2.3% in 2015 and is likely to be zero or negative in 2016.

But the current economic downturn isn’t primarily due to a decline in global commodity prices. It is the result of the government borrowing heavily against future export earnings while taking actions that deferred the day when those exports would materialize. Instead of preparing for an inevitable cyclical downturn in commodity prices, the government took steps that magnified that downturn’s impact.

One alarm bell sounded in May when the Mongolian Mining Corporation, a 100% private company with a large stake in the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine, defaulted on the $500 million bond it issued in 2012. Although not unexpected, this default is a harbinger of more trouble to come. In the next two years, Mongolia’s cash-strapped government must repay $1.2 billion in commercial debt.

Just two years ago there was still active discussion in Mongolia about creating a sovereign-wealth fund to manage the big foreign-currency surpluses mining would generate. Now the country faces the real possibility of an external debt crisis and sovereign default.

Having borrowed irresponsibly and enjoyed an unsustainable increase in its standard of living, Mongolia has no choice now but to tighten its fiscal belt for the next few years, while encouraging a rebound in sustainable sources of growth. The country must rebuild trust with foreign investors by creating fair and transparent bidding procedures and honoring past contracts, while avoiding the well-known environmental and economic traps that commodity exporters face.

Mongolians elected a new government in June, with a clear mandate to turn the economic situation around. The opportunity is still there, but time is running out. Everyone in the country should be clear that tough steps are needed and the cost of failure could be years of lost growth.

Mr. Bikales is an economist who has advised many Mongolian governments since 1991.

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