1 MONGOLIA MARKS CENTENNIAL WITH A NEW COURSE FOR CHANGE WWW.EASTASIAFORUM.ORG PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      2 E-MART OPENS FIFTH STORE IN ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA, TARGETING K-FOOD CRAZE WWW.BIZ.CHOSUN.COM PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      3 JAPAN AND MONGOLIA FORGE HISTORIC DEFENSE PACT UNDER THIRD NEIGHBOR STRATEGY WWW.ARMYRECOGNITION.COM  PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      4 CENTRAL BANK LOWERS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.2% WWW.UBPOST.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      5 L. OYUN-ERDENE: EVERY CITIZEN WILL RECEIVE 350,000 MNT IN DIVIDENDS WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      6 THE BILL TO ELIMINATE THE QUOTA FOR FOREIGN WORKERS IN MONGOLIA HAS BEEN SUBMITTED WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      7 THE SECOND NATIONAL ONCOLOGY CENTER TO BE CONSTRUCTED IN ULAANBAATAR WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      8 GREEN BOND ISSUED FOR WASTE RECYCLING WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      9 BAGANUUR 50 MW BATTERY STORAGE POWER STATION SUPPLIES ENERGY TO CENTRAL SYSTEM WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      10 THE PENSION AMOUNT INCREASED BY SIX PERCENT WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      КОКС ХИМИЙН ҮЙЛДВЭРИЙН БҮТЭЭН БАЙГУУЛАЛТЫГ ИРЭХ ОНЫ ХОЁРДУГААР УЛИРАЛД ЭХЛҮҮЛНЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     "ЭРДЭНЭС ТАВАНТОЛГОЙ” ХК-ИЙН ХУВЬЦАА ЭЗЭМШИГЧ ИРГЭН БҮРД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГ ӨНӨӨДӨР ОЛГОНО WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГИЙН ОРЛОГО 2040 ОНД 38 ИХ НАЯДАД ХҮРЭХ ТӨСӨӨЛӨЛ ГАРСАН WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ЭРДЭНЭС ОЮУ ТОЛГОЙ” ХХК-ИАС ХЭРЛЭН ТООНО ТӨСЛИЙГ ӨМНӨГОВЬ АЙМАГТ ТАНИЛЦУУЛЛАА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     Л.ОЮУН-ЭРДЭНЭ: ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГААС НЭГ ИРГЭНД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГИЙН ХАДГАЛАМЖ ҮҮСЛЭЭ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ENTRÉE RESOURCES” 2 ЖИЛ ГАРУЙ ҮРГЭЛЖИЛСЭН АРБИТРЫН МАРГААНД ЯЛАЛТ БАЙГУУЛАВ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ORANO MINING”-ИЙН ГЭРЭЭ БОЛОН ГАШУУНСУХАЙТ-ГАНЦМОД БООМТЫН ТӨСЛИЙН АСУУДЛААР ЗАСГИЙН ГАЗАР ХУРАЛДАЖ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     АЖИЛЧДЫН САРЫН ГОЛЧ ЦАЛИН III УЛИРЛЫН БАЙДЛААР ₮2 САЯ ОРЧИМ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     PROGRESSIVE EQUITY RESEARCH: 2025 ОН “PETRO MATAD” КОМПАНИД ЭЭЛТЭЙ БАЙХААР БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     2026 ОНЫГ ДУУСТАЛ ГАДААД АЖИЛТНЫ ТОО, ХУВЬ ХЭМЖЭЭГ ХЯЗГААРЛАХГҮЙ БАЙХ ХУУЛИЙН ТӨСӨЛ ӨРГӨН МЭДҮҮЛЭВ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19    

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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Draft Laws on the 2025 State Budget of Mongolia Approved www.montsame.mn

During its regular session on November 8, 2024, the State Great Khural of Mongolia finalized and approved the draft laws on the 2025 State Budget of Mongolia.
Specifically, 68 members of Parliament present at the session approved the draft law on the 2025 State Budget of Mongolia and the draft law on the 2025 Sovereign Wealth Fund, while 71 members approved the draft law on the 2025 Budget for Social Insurance Fund and the draft law on the 2025 Budget for Health Insurance Fund.
The draft law on the 2025 State Budget of Mongolia stipulates MNT 23,140,589.3 million to be generated for the balanced state budget for 2025 while the expenditure budget is MNT 26,485,278.0 million. Moreover, MNT 3,932,432.9 million will be allocated to finance investment projects, measures, and construction projects in 2025 while the maximum amount for government-issued debt guarantees for the 2025 fiscal year is set to be MNT 3,500,000 million.
After approving the draft laws on the 2025 State Budget, the Parliament of Mongolia approved the draft Resolution on “Certain Measures to be Taken in Connection with the Adoption of the Draft Law on the 2025 State Budget” in the first reading. According to the draft Resolution, the Government of Mongolia is instructed to submit the draft budget adjustment to the Parliament by December 2024.
In connection with the adoption of the draft laws on the 2025 State Budget, Chairman of the State Great Khural Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve delivered a speech. In his remarks, Chairman Amarbayasgalan urged the Government to improve budget planning to ensure the effective and efficient spending of taxpayers’ money, properly assessing the social and economic impacts, and ensuring alignment with economic policies.
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President of Mongolia arrives in Azerbaijan www.azartag.az

Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, President of Mongolia, arrived in Azerbaijan on Sunday to attend the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
At Heydar Aliyev International Airport, the President was welcomed by Teymur Musayev, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Health, along with other officials.
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Fitch Upgrades Mongolian Mining to 'B+'; Outlook Stable www.fitchratings.com

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 10 Nov 2024: Fitch Ratings has upgraded coal producer Mongolian Mining Corporation's (MMC) Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B+' from 'B'. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also upgraded MMC's senior unsecured notes due 2026 to 'B+' from 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. The notes are jointly and severally issued by MMC and its wholly owned subsidiary, Energy Resources LLC.
The upgrade reflects our assessment of reduced regulatory volatility for the mining operations following an upgrade of Mongolia's sovereign rating to 'B+' from 'B' in September 2024. MMC's IDR is constrained by the concentration of end customers, small scale and high country-risk for the mining operations in Mongolia.
Key Rating Drivers
Reduced Regulatory Volatility: We believe the regulatory volatility for MMC's mining operations has reduced with lower policy uncertainty after parliamentary elections in June as well as Mongolia's stronger ability to withstand shocks due to larger foreign-exchange reserves, lower debt and more manageable external debt maturities compared to Fitch's previous forecasts. Nevertheless, Mongolia is still highly vulnerable to external conditions.
Robust Operations: Border throughput after the Covid-19 pandemic reached about 900 trucks a day on average in 2023 and averaged around 1,000 trucks a day in 9M24, exceeding the average of about 600-700 trucks on average before Covid-19. MMC also benefited from a new mining commodity trading platform that expanded its customer reach. Over 50% of revenue was through the trading platform in 9M24. As a result, MMC's run-of-mine coal output reached to 14.6 million tonnes (mt) in 2023 and 13mt in 9M24 from around 10mt in 2019.
MMC sold 6.7mt of washed coking coal products in 2023 and 6mt in 9M24, compared with the historical annual average of 4.5mt-5mt. The average selling price (ASP) per tonne of washed hard coking coal remained strong at USD160 in 2023 and USD174 in 1H24, against USD147 in 2022.
Strong Financial Profile: We expect the EBITDA margin to trend down in 2024-2027 as coking coal prices fall but will remain above 40% (2023: 47%), supported by steady volume and a low-cost position. We forecast EBITDA net leverage to remain below 0.4x in 2024-2027, after decreasing to 0.4x in 2023 from 3.4x in 2022. We expect high interest coverage to continue in 2024-2027, after EBITDA interest coverage reached 15.4x in 2023.
Acquisitions Drive Diversification and Growth: MMC started diversifying into other metals through its latest acquisition of 50% of gold and precious metal exploration company Erdene Mongol LLC. However, the coal segment will remain its dominant revenue contributor in the short to medium term. We do not expect aggressive M&A in 2024-2027, as management has indicated a cautious approach to acquisitions. Still, we will evaluate any debt-funded investment larger than Fitch expects as an event-driven risk and assess the effects on MMC's financial flexibility and credit profile.
Geographical Concentration: We believe that MMC's main end-customer base is in northern China, even though the concentration of the top 10 customers decreased to 54% in 2023 from 93% in 2019. MMC's heavy reliance on Chinese customers makes it vulnerable to economic conditions and regulatory changes in China. This was particularly evident in the Covid-19 pandemic when border throughput fell sharply, resulting in MMC's sales volume dropping to 1.6 mt in 2021, from an average of 5mt historically.
In addition, MMC's cash cost is on the first quartile of the global coking-coal cost curve, but its cost advantage is limited to northern China due to additional transportation costs beyond the region, which we believe will put MMC in the higher quartiles of the global coking-coal cost curve.
Small Scale, Single Product: MMC's scale is small by EBITDA compared with Fitch-rated coal miners globally. We expect EBITDA to be slightly above USD400 million in 2024-2027 (2023: USD481 million) due to stable volumes and a lower coking coal ASP. Washed coking coal products were 99% of total revenue in 2023, in line with historical levels. Its 2023 coal reserve statement shows total marketable coking coal reserves of just under 300mt, or a reserve life slightly over 20 years. MMC's small scale and product concentration constrain its business profile.
Country Risk Remains High: MMC's mining assets are all in Mongolia and are subject to local regulations. We believe the volatile mining regulations have a meaningful impact on MMC's financials. This was the case during the pandemic when the effective rate for the royalty reference price was raised to over 20%, from 5%-8%, increasing financial pressure on MMC. The reference price has fallen and stabilised after the pandemic and the mining product exchange has established a more transparent reference price from October 2023, but the record of stable regulation is short.
Derivation Summary
MMC can be compared with Guangyang Antai Holdings Limited (B/Stable), which has revenue of more than 7x that of MMC. Guangyang Antai's EBITDA is smaller than that of MMC due to its low-single-digit EBITDA margin while MMC's is high at over 40%. We expect MMC to be in a net cash position on average during 2024-2027, while Guangyang Antai's EBITDA net leverage will be around 3.0x.
MMC is a single-product coal miner, similar to Indonesia-based miner peers PT Indika Energy Tbk (BB-/Stable) and PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS, BB-/Stable). Its operational profile in terms of mine life is over 20 years, against GEMS's slightly under 20 years and Indika's around 16 years. Still, MMC's concentrated customer base and Mongolia's volatile mining regulations compare unfavourably with that of rated peers.
Compared to Indika, MMC is slightly larger in terms of EBITDA due to a high EBITDA margin of above 40%, against Indika's margin in the low teens. MMC's EBITDA net leverage is lower at 0.4x than Indika's 1.7x in 2023. Compared with GEMS, MMC is smaller in terms of EBITDA, but MMC's EBITDA margin is higher than GEMS' 25%. GEMS also has better leverage, with a net cash position in 2023.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case for the Issuer:
- Total annual coal sales volume on average slightly below 8mt a year in 2024-2027;
- Mid-single-digit coal revenue decline a year in 2024-2026 as coking coal prices trend down;
- EBITDA margin to remain above 40% in 2024-2027, supported by steady volume and normalised costs;
- Capex to average over 15% of revenue a year during 2024-2027.
- No dividend payments in 2024-2027 based on current expectations.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:
- Positive rating action is not envisaged in light of MMC's limited scale and diversification.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade:
- EBITDA net leverage above 3.0x for a sustained period;
- Adverse changes in mining regulations that affect the operating environment in Mongolia.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Comfortable Liquidity: MMC had cash on hand of USD279 million at end-June 2024, with no short-term maturities within the next 12 months.
The company has redeemed of all outstanding perpetual notes with face value of USD122.5 million on 2 October 2024 with available cash. MMC's USD220 million bonds issued with Energy Resources LLC mature in 2026, and we estimate the company will generate enough cash to redeem them without the need for refinancing. MMC also has USD30 million of unused committed bank facilities available.
Issuer Profile
MMC is the largest producer and exporter of high-quality hard coking coal in Mongolia. It owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines in South Gobi province. MMC processed 14.1mt of run-of-mine coal in 2023, which yielded around 6.7mt of washed coking coal as a primary product and 2mt of middlings as a secondary product.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Click here to access Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products....
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Mongolia's capital halts issuance of vehicle license plates www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's capital Ulan Bator has stopped issuing new vehicle license plates in an effort to reduce traffic congestion, effective Friday, according to the municipal government of Ulan Bator on Saturday.
"It is said that as the number of imported cars in Ulan Bator increases, the measures implemented to address the city's congestion have become ineffective. Therefore, starting Nov. 8, it was decided not to issue new Ulan Bator license plates for imported cars," the municipal government said in a statement.
Traffic congestion has been one of the most pressing issues in Ulan Bator, which is home to about half of Mongolia's 3.5-million population.
In the first 10 months of this year, Mongolia imported 104,742 passenger cars, a 71.7 percent increase from the same period last year, as well as 24,632 trucks, which represents a 43.3 percent increase, according to the Mongolian Customs General Administration.
The Citizens' Representative Council of Ulan Bator has approved a resolution setting a cap on the number of registered vehicles in the city at 730,000. However, there are currently 800,000 vehicles with Ulan Bator license plates.
 
 
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Mongolia's capital halts issuance of vehicle license plates www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's capital Ulan Bator has stopped issuing new vehicle license plates in an effort to reduce traffic congestion, effective Friday, according to the municipal government of Ulan Bator on Saturday.
"It is said that as the number of imported cars in Ulan Bator increases, the measures implemented to address the city's congestion have become ineffective. Therefore, starting Nov. 8, it was decided not to issue new Ulan Bator license plates for imported cars," the municipal government said in a statement.
Traffic congestion has been one of the most pressing issues in Ulan Bator, which is home to about half of Mongolia's 3.5-million population.
In the first 10 months of this year, Mongolia imported 104,742 passenger cars, a 71.7 percent increase from the same period last year, as well as 24,632 trucks, which represents a 43.3 percent increase, according to the Mongolian Customs General Administration.
The Citizens' Representative Council of Ulan Bator has approved a resolution setting a cap on the number of registered vehicles in the city at 730,000. However, there are currently 800,000 vehicles with Ulan Bator license plates.
 
 
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Mongolia's inflation rate stands at 7.0 pct in October www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, was recorded at 7.0 percent in October, according to the latest data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Saturday.
This represents a notable decline of 2.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year, signaling the country's ongoing efforts to stabilize its economy.
However, despite the year-on-year decrease, the October inflation rate reflects a slight uptick of 0.3 percentage points compared to September. Experts from the NSO noted that while inflation remains on a downward trajectory over the long term, month-to-month fluctuations are to be expected as the economy continues to adjust to global and domestic factors.
In recent years, Mongolia has faced significant volatility in its inflation rates. The inflation rate peaked at a staggering 16.4 percent in July 2022, driven primarily by rising import prices, particularly energy and food products. Since then, the inflation rate has gradually decreased, which experts attribute to a combination of factors, including a marked increase in Mongolia's foreign exchange reserves and the relative stability of the Tugrik, the country's national currency.
The Mongolian government has set a medium-term target of stabilizing inflation at around 6 percent. Authorities believe achieving and maintaining this target is crucial for fostering sustainable economic growth and strengthening consumer confidence in the market.
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Magnitude-5.0 earthquake occurs in Bayanhongor Province at around 04:37 Nov. 10 www.crisis24.garda.com

A magnitude-5.0 earthquake occurred in Mongolia's Bayanhongor Province at around 04:37 Nov. 10. The epicenter was about 175 km (109 miles) west-southwest of Bayanhongor, Bayanhongor Province. The tremor occurred at a depth of about 10 km (6 miles), and light-to-moderate shaking was probably felt in areas near the epicenter. There have been no initial reports of damage or casualties as a result of the earthquake; significant damage is unlikely. It could take several hours until authorities can conduct comprehensive damage assessments, especially in remote areas. Aftershocks are likely over the coming days.
Officials may temporarily shut down transportation infrastructure in the tremor zone to check for damage. Minor disruptions could occur during shutdowns, but service will likely resume quickly if no damage is found. Utility outages are possible, particularly near the earthquake's epicenter.
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‘Elevated tax criteria may intensify financial strain on businesses’ www.ubpost.mn

On November 8, the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Board of Directors held a press conference to highlight significant concerns over the 2025 state budget proposal, expressing that the increased tax and spending burdens could heavily impact the private sector. Business leaders voiced concerns that escalating expenses, as outlined in the draft budget, risk overwhelming Mongolian enterprises and citizens alike with higher taxes and social security contributions.
The press conference raised issues of unfulfilled commitments by major political parties, including the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), Democratic Party (DP), and HUN Party, who had initially promised economic relief and support for businesses. These parties, which hold a substantial share of parliamentary seats, pledged to reduce budget expenditures and prioritize the growth of the private sector. However, the 2025 budget shows a different approach, with substantial increases in both budget revenue and expenditures.
The draft budget sets total revenue at 36.8 trillion MNT, with a balanced income of 33.9 trillion MNT and expenditures at 35.8 trillion MNT. Compared to 2023, budget revenue has surged by 15 trillion MNT (68.8 percent), and budget expenditure by 13.4 trillion MNT (60 percent), with current expenses climbing by 9.1 trillion MNT (53.9 percent). Critics argue that the budget’s focus on high projected income and excessive current expenses could inflate government involvement in the economy, thereby limiting space for private sector growth.
According to the board, the tax structure embedded in the budget proposal allocates 87 percent of revenue from taxes, translating to 31.9 trillion MNT, an increase of 49 percent over 2023. This elevated tax requirement, along with social security premiums, may intensify the financial strain on businesses, potentially limiting their ability to sustain growth and job creation.
The private sector representatives in attendance emphasized that the fiscal overexpansion could shrink private sector activity by redirecting resources toward government initiatives. “This budget’s tax structure will make it exceptionally difficult for businesses to shoulder the financial load in 2025,” the board members noted, adding that the increased tax and insurance burdens, combined with rising interest rates, could further strain the country’s economic stability.
The business leaders called for significant reforms in fiscal policy, emphasizing a shift away from current overexpansion tendencies. They proposed scaling back current expenses during periods of high economic growth, supporting impactful investment projects, and adjusting the social welfare policy from a welfare-centric model toward a labor-focused approach.
The board members highlighted that such reforms could alleviate the tax burden on businesses and individuals while enhancing private sector participation in Mongolia’s economy. They also urged relevant officials to uphold the Budget Stability Law’s accountability provisions, ensuring that fiscal policy remains sustainable and growth-oriented. Moreover, the companies collectively pledged to monitor the government’s budget discussions and ensure that the 2025 budget incorporates balanced policies that support rather than inhibit Mongolia’s economic development.
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Mongolian girl became the champion of the "Intellectual Olympics” www.news.mn

The “MEMORIAD 2024 World Mental Sports Olympics” is currently underway in the UAE, running from November 7 to November 9. Often described as an “Intellectual Olympics,” this competition gathers participants from over 60 countries to compete in various mental disciplines, such as mental calculations, memory, and speed reading. Events include mental math categories like Flash Anzan, multiplication, division, and calculating square roots, as well as memory challenges like rapid recall of numbers and cards. Top participants have a chance to win a portion of the $27,000 prize fund and set or break world records​.
This year, 180 athletes from 35 countries in 12 categories are competing in the “Intellectual Olympics”, which is held once every four years.
Mongolia already won four medals in “Speed card” category in junior and adult categories.
Adult category:
Gold: N.Munkhshur 19.47 sec
Silver: Ts.Oyun-Erdene 20.62 sec
Bronze: Ts.Nomin-Erdene 22.05 sec
Junior category:
Gold: O.Irmuun 37.8 sec
N.Munkhshur, two-time World Memory Champion, International Grandmaster, won the gold medal in the card category and became the owner of the title of champion of the :Intellectual Olympics”.
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N.Nomtoibayar: Parliament operates like government agency despite having 126 members www.gogo.mn

At a press conference, N.Nomtoibayar, the Member of the Parliament and Leader of National Coalition Party, voiced serious objections to the state budget about to be approved. He stated that the National Coalition Party has opposed the budget from the beginning, as high taxes and contributions limit enterprise growth and economic expansion. According to him, the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly insisted that tax cuts are impossible due to tight budget constraints.
N.Nomtoibayar noted that the current expenditures have surged from MNT 20 to 30 trillion and raised concerns over what he views as a suppression of dissent within the MPP, saying critics face isolation or even legal action.
Nomtoibayar also defended D.Enkhtuvshin against the MPP's demands for an apology regarding the citizen trust agreement, saying, "I made this demand out of concern for Mongolia's future." He further suggested that if the budget leads to economic instability, Parliament should consider a vote of confidence in Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene.
If approved as it stands, he warned of rising inflation, increasing debt, and a continued immigration of young people. He plans to request a veto from President U.Khurelsukh, asserting that "The first parliament with 126 members is functioning more like a government agency than a true legislative body".
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