Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS

Why you should visit Mongolia in 2023 www.wanderlust.co.uk
Mongolia has long been an off-the-beaten-track destination on Wanderlust's radar. Best known for its nomadic culture, grass-covered steppes, and for having more horses than people, it calls out to those seeking culture, nature and adventure. But if that wasn't enough to seize your attention, it's now become easier than ever before to travel to this emerging country. Here is why you should take a trip to the 'Land of the Eternal Blue Sky' in 2023.
Travel to Mongolia visa-free
That is, if you’re travelling from one of the 61 countries on Mongolia’s visa-free list. Several western nations have been recently added to the temporary visa exemption, which will run until December 2025, allowing visitors to have up to 30 days travelling in Mongolia. Many European countries are included on the list, such as the UK, Switzerland, France, Denmark, and Spain, as well as the South Pacific countries of Australia and New Zealand (US citizens were already allegeable for 90-days of visa-free travel). This temporary exemption is part of efforts by the Mongolian government to invite more tourists to experience Mongolia, so if you've ever wanted to ride the Trans-Mongolian Railway, tour the Gobi Desert, or roam the capital of Ulaanbaatar, now is the time.
Celebrate 100 years of Naadam
The hottest cultural festival in Mongolia’s calendar turned a century in 2022, although the origins of the festival date back much longer than that to the days of Genghis Khan. Naadam is Mongolia’s answer to the Olympic games, with participants competing in three traditional events: archery, wrestling and horseracing. The games take place during July, and while the main sporting competitions and celebrations – including the opening ceremony and closing ceremony – take place in the capital of Ulaanbaatar, many towns and villages in the countryside often hold their own, smaller events.
Learn Mongolia’s history at a new museum
The end of 2022 saw the opening of the Chinggis Khan Museum, the largest museum of its kind. With more than 12,000 artefacts spanning centuries, the museum's permanent and temporary collections transport visitors back in time to understand three main periods of Mongolian of history: the ancient kingdoms of the time before Genghis Khan, the Mongol Empire, and the Great Khan dynasty. The museum has been built where the old Natural History Museum once stood, with nine floors of exhibition space and immersive experiences.
Stay in a new eco retreat
Outdoor enthusiasts will love the opening of a new eco-friendly camp set in a valley along the Yeruu River. Many activities can be planned alongside your stay to help you make the most of the natural surroundings, including horseriding, kayaking and yoga. Yeruu Lodge not only pays attention to the needs of its guests, but also its environment and community. All produce used in the on-site restaurant are locally sourced, and all food waste is made into compost for growing the camp’s own fruit, vegetables, herbs and berries. Plastic, glass and metal is recycled and solar panels provide electricity throughout the camp. The community have been part of the workforce building the accommodation – which is based on traditional Mongolian Gers – and local artists will be supported as part of planned performances, helping visitors be immersed in the culture.

Copper mine flashes warning of 'huge crisis' for world supply www.bloomberg.com
Accompanied by tinny taped music and overall-clad workers, Rio Tinto Group executives and Mongolian officials gathered a kilometer beneath the freezing Gobi Desert earlier this year to open one of the world’s richest underground copper mines.
It was a celebration four decades in the making.
Oyu Tolgoi, in southern Mongolia just north of the Chinese border, is key to Rio’s efforts to move beyond its dependence on iron ore and expand in copper, the metal that underpins the clean energy transition. It’s also a vast deposit whose corporate, political and technical vicissitudes offer a glimpse of the red metal’s troubled future.
As demand for copper surges, supply is increasingly likely to come from mines like this one on the arid steppe: expensive, technically complex, outside traditional copper jurisdictions and operating under the eye of governments jealously guarding their natural resources.
“There’s a huge crisis,” says Doug Kirwin, one of the earliest geologists to work at the deposit that became Oyu Tolgoi, or Turquoise Hill, named after the area’s rocks, stained by oxidized copper.
“There’s no way we can supply the amount of copper in the next 10 years to drive the energy transition and carbon zero. It’s not going to happen,” adds Kirwin, now an independent consulting geologist. “There’s just not enough copper deposits being found or developed.”
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate a greener world will be short about six million tons of copper by next decade, meaning 12 new Oyu Tolgois need to come online within that period.
But they aren’t — there are simply not enough new mines, much less enough large ones. The result is a gap: BloombergNEF estimates appetite for refined copper will grow by 53% by 2040, but supply will climb only 16%.
The world’s largest miners aren’t standing idly by. After more than a decade of repenting for the excess that followed the China-led boom in demand in the 2000s, deals are back, with green metals in buyers’ sights. The looming green metal shortfall has encouraged Glencore’s move on Teck Resources, long a coveted copper target, and top gold miner Newmont's record bid for Australian peer Newcrest Mining, a deal that will add bullion but also copper to its production profile. BHP Group Ltd has just completed the acquisition of copper producer Oz Minerals, its largest deal in over a decade.
None of these, even if successful, will alter the overall global balance.
Building mines, as opposed to buying them, is still too painful a headache. Prices are not shiny enough to cover rising costs, and risks abound. Take Oyu Tolgoi, where construction has involved adding a 200 km labyrinth of concrete tunnels to the open pit, but also roads, an airport, power transmission and water infrastructure. Never mind Mongolia’s largest canteen, for 20,000 or so workers — and, Mongolia hopes, an eventual power plant.
Even more worrying, though exploration has ticked higher of late, is that spending remains far short of what is required. And what does emerge tends to be smaller and lower grade, meaning the percentage of metal in the ore is more slight, so more effort (and waste) is required to hit the same production levels. The last heavyweight discovery, arguably, was roughly a decade ago — the combined Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, owned by entrepreneur Robert Friedland’s Ivanhoe Mines.
“Mines are getting older, mines are getting deeper, and mines are getting lower grade,” said David Radclyffe, managing director at Global Mining Research. “Then you’ve had the added complications of the need to conform with the shift in terms of environmental requirements. And political risk on top of that.”
Geologist Kirwin’s skepticism comes from deep experience. It was his team tat, more than two decades ago, discovered the mega-deposit that eventually lured Rio to Mongolia.
Hunting for copper in Asia for Friedland, he arrived in Ulaanbaatar in 1996, after a chance encounter in China with a Mongolian geologist. Mongolia had barely emerged from its communist past as a Soviet satellite state. It was, as he had been promised, a geologist’s paradise, offering tantalizing prospects — including around Oyu Tolgoi in the south, where outcrops had first been spotted in the mid-1980s.
Magma Copper, later bought by mining giant BHP, had started exploring in the Gobi desert in the mid-1990s. When the miner decided to refocus, Kirwin was there to secure the exploration license for Oyu Tolgoi. Friedland describes the moment as a “perfect storm”. He moved fast, and drilling soon yielded one of the world’s largest high-grade copper discoveries.
The scale of the find — plus unrelenting promotion from the expansive Friedland, who had made his name with the giant Voisey’s Bay nickel deposit in the 1990s — brought attention, and in 2006, Rio Tinto took a stake in Friedland’s company.
“There was no doubt that it was exactly the sort of project that Rio Tinto goes after – tier one, large size, long life, low operating cost. So that was the basis of their interest,” says David Paterson, who became Rio’s country director for Mongolia in 2010.
But the path was not smooth. There was boardroom trouble, as Rio began increasing its holding and Friedland sought to prevent it gaining control with a poison pill takeover defense — one which the Anglo-Australian miner eventually defeated. Friedland, who takes credit for the open pit and the first phase of the mine, left with a hefty payout.
There was turbulence too with the Mongolian government, as the mine hit local headlines. A deal that granted the country a 34% stake in the mine — with payment, plus interest, to be taken from future profits - began to seem less generous as the expansion hit delays, pushing back the expected windfall.
The result was so messy and the financing so tricky that a resolution in 2015 helped the then-head of copper, Jean-Sebastien Jacques, make it to chief executive the following year. And setbacks continued as late as 2019, when technical challenges meant costs for the underground mine escalated to more than $7 billion — a third more than initially planned.
“Both sides were playing the card that they would walk away,” said Paterson, who by that time had left Rio and was watching from afar. “I never believed that.” The dispute eventually resolved when Rio agreed in December 2021 to write off the Mongolian government’s debt to the company, to the tune of $2.4-billion.
When Rio CEO Jakob Stausholm and Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erdene Luvsannamsrai stood side by side under the Gobi desert in March, neither was able to ignore the past, but neither dwelled on it.
Bold Baatar, Rio’s Mongolian-born head of copper and long the man at the sharp end of negotiations, brushes aside fresh political concerns today: “There’s a lot of openness about how the government works with the broader society,” he said, speaking at Oyu Tolgoi’s airport after the underground mine ceremony.
But even democracies can have disagreements on critical issues, from the fiscal burden to water use and waste. “I do believe that there will be debate in the future too,” Oyun Erdene told Bloomberg in an interview.
Other issues loom. The Mongolian government wants Rio to build a power plant for the mine, rather than use electricity from over the border, generated in China. It is also eager for copper to be smelted at home rather than sent out on trucks — an idea that would be expensive and water intensive, and for which Rio has shown little enthusiasm.
These demands will be familiar to all major miners, as countries attempt to create more value within their borders, to protect resources and increase fiscal benefits, from Chile, rethinking tax demands to meet acute social spending needs, to Panama, where a spat with the government forced First Quantum Minerals's Cobre Panama mine to a halt.
But that’s not all. Oyu Tolgoi is also emblematic of the growing technical challenges for miners. Even historic open pits like century-old giant Chuquicamata, the Chilean mine that drove revolutionary icon Ernesto Che Guevara to action, are going underground.
Oyu Tolgoi, which Rio forecasts will be the world’s fourth-largest copper mine when it is at full production, uses a complex method that allows access to deeper deposits called “block caving”, which involves digging under the ore body, blowing gaps underneath that allows the ore to collapse and fall down funnels to a lower level where it is collected, crushed, and sent to the surface on conveyor belts.
A cost-effective way of mining large deposits less rich than those of the past, its popularity is spreading, but the technique remains a challenge. Rio found early on that its ore collapsed all too well. Then there’s the hefty initial investment.
“You can almost count the number of miners who can do that on one hand,” said veteran analyst Glyn Lawcock at Sydney-based investment firm Barrenjoey, who first visited Oyu Tolgoi on Friedland’s private jet.
Rio’s Baatar is bullish. He argues disputes over “mega-mining contracts” are common, and doesn’t think Rio’s experience over Oyu Tolgoi was particularly unusual. Nor does he think political instability elsewhere will hold back copper supply.
But his optimism is not widespread.
Take not just Chile, with its revisions to fiscal policies for miners, but Peru, a country long considered crucial to the next wave of copper production, where the mining sector has been battered during lengthy social unrest. Rio in late March agreed to sell a controlling stake in its Peruvian mine La Granja to First Quantum.
“What the market never predicted was how difficult South America would become,” said Radclyffe. “The uncertainty out of both Chile and now ongoing in Peru, that’s just added an extra level of complexity that the market never expected, and that hasn’t really been resolved.”
The problem now is that the next big deposits will require possibly more risk than most executives at the helm of large miners are willing to take. Even before that, it requires a significant increase in exploration spending.
“It’s similar to what you saw in the 90s. There was huge underinvestment in 90s, a lot of money went into the tech boom 1.0 — then you had China urbanization, this big demand shock that the industry wasn’t prepared for,” said John Stover, a portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Singapore. “Everyone knows what’s happening, but we’re not seeing the spending.”
Friedland, still one of the mining industry’s most committed boosters, agrees — and warns that the sheer length of time involved in bringing on new mines can rarely be shortened, even when exploration money is spent and a deposit found.
“Oyu Tolgoi is now 20 years old, and it’s just getting started,” he said. “It doesn’t matter whether the copper price is $3 a pound or $30 a pound, you can’t speed up the process materially.”
Granted, there are other options — recycling, or new methods to extract copper from lower grade ore and even mine waste. BHP, Rio and others have bet on cutting-edge technology. But in the face of rocketing demand, none will move the needle.
“If it was rolled out across every operation in the world, it could be another half a million tons added on,” said Wood Mackenzie analyst Carl Firmen — who estimates the annual supply gap will be 12 times that figure by next decade.
Other, more futuristic methods, such as use of underground robots and microbes to get more out of low-grade or hard-to-access deposits are at an even earlier stage.
Rio, of course, hopes to be among the beneficiaries whatever happens, with rising demand pushing prices higher just as copper output at Oyu Tolgoi reaches peak production. At that point, the company projects, it will be up there with the giants.
Greening the economy, expanding grids and renewable energy generation to hit global climate targets, however, requires many more Oyu Tolgois.
“Mongolia was an adventurous location. So was the Democratic Republic of Congo,” says Friedland. “But this has to be done. Absent this effort, there is absolutely no chance of an energy transition. It’s a fantasy.”

Decisions Made at The Cabinet Session www.montsame.mn
The regular meeting of the Government of Mongolia was held on May 3, 2023, and the following issues were discussed and resolved.
Draft amendments to the Constitution of Mongolia were discussed and submitted to the Parliament
After the discussion at the Government meeting, Minister of Mongolia, Chief Cabinet Secretary D. Amarbayasgalan submitted the draft amendments to the Constitution of Mongolia to Chairman of the State Great Khural G. Zandanshatar.
In 1991-1992, when the Constitution of Mongolia was adopted, one member of the State Great Khural represented an average of 27,000 citizens. Today, the number of citizens represented by a single member has nearly doubled, reaching 44,700, reducing the parliament's representative capacity. In order to improve the parliament's ability to represent citizens, the number of members of the Parliament will be increased to 152 in proportion to the population, as the draft amendment to the Constitution reflected.
The use of the majoritarian election system alone has created negative aspects such as the loss of votes of citizens, the interests of constituencies being placed higher than the interests of the country, and giving preference to those who are known to the public and have financial resources. The proportional electoral system has advantages such as lower loss of votes, equal representation of social groups, and optimal formation of political parties. Therefore, an election system that reflects the advantages of majoritarian and proportional representation and provisions for electing 50 percent of total members of the State Great Khural by majoritarian and 50 percent by proportional is considered.
By clearly defining the voting system in the Constitution of Mongolia, it is important to ensure the stability of the electoral system of the State Great Khural of Mongolia, fair competition of parties in elections, transparency to the citizens, and guarantee of voting rights of citizens abroad.
The Prime Minister mandated that 80 percent of all citizens should be included in early detection examinations, tests, and diagnoses in 2023
Minister of Health S. Chinzorig informed the Government about the process of participating in the screening, test, and diagnosis for disease prevention and early detection of the population, and the amendments included in Resolution No. 06 of 2022 "On Approval of Packages, Amounts of Payments, and Procedures" of the National Health Insurance Council.
The Government of Mongolia and the Ministry of Health have been organizing the prevention, early detection, and diagnosis of common infectious and non-infectious diseases based on the age, gender, and health risk of the population starting from May 1, 2022.
As of May 1 of this year, 30 percent of the population has been enrolled in this campaign, and the Prime Minister has mandated to cover 80 percent of citizens within 2023.
Minister of Justice and Home Affairs Kh. Nyambaatar: We are working to improve the assessment of the Corruption Perceptions Index
The corruption index of Mongolia on 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index reported by Transparency International and the anti-corruption strategy to be followed in 2023-2024 were discussed.
In the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index issued by Transparency International, Mongolia scored 33 points and ranked 116th out of 180 countries. Mongolia has taken some commendable measures to restore the anti-corruption system last year, but it is not enough to fight the existing corruption risk, and the following conclusion was made.
- In Mongolia, which has abundant natural resources, information about the natural resources revenue, its distribution, and decision-making regarding it is not disclosed in a unified way, and insufficient regulation is a major issue.
- Government employees are giving priority to personal interests over public interests, which leads to demonstrations in the capital city.
- The Government needs to take several measures to improve the situation. It is necessary to update the law on public procurement, release corrupt officials from public service, standardize the governance of state-owned enterprises, and ensure transparency at all levels in order to stop the evasion of government-appointed officials from being charged.
The Minister pointed out that the Government of Mongolia has declared 2023-2024 as the Year of Fighting Corruption and is implementing the "Five W Operation." In this context, the Government is working to improve the Corruption Perception Index of Mongolia.
Digitally traded coal will be transported through Gashuunsukhait port via a special gateway
It has been three months since the start of online coal trading, and 1.2 million tons of coal have been sold in 26 auctions.
Foreign exchange reserves reached USD 3.7 billion in April
The official foreign currency reserves decreased to USD 2.5 billion in September 2022, then by the end of April 2023 increased to USD 3.7 billion. As a result, real economic growth accounted for 7.6 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to the preliminary estimates of the National Statistics Committee. The mining and service sectors mainly affected this growth. However, annual inflation was 12.2 percent in the first quarter and decreased to 10.3 percent as of May 1.
Foreign exchange reserves have increased and remained stable in recent months due to increased activity at border ports and increased exports. For example, coal export, which reached 19.0 million tons in the first four months of 2023, increased by 7.5 million tons from the same period of 2019 and 15.2 million tons from the same period of the previous year, respectively.
Brief news
The cabinet agreed to issue a Government resolution on some measures to be taken to resolve foreign investment complaints and Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy and Development Ch. Khurelbaatar was instructed to take measures to openly upload reports on the resolution of complaints and applications submitted by foreign investors on the Ministry’s website.

Mongolia's foreign trade up 50.4 pct in 4 months www.xinhuanet.com
Mongolia's total imports and exports expanded 50.4 percent year on year to 7.7 billion U.S. dollars in the first four months of 2023, the Mongolian Customs General Administration said on Wednesday.
The Asian country registered a surplus in foreign trade balance as exports exceeded imports by around 2.4 billion dollars, mainly due to a significant increase in the exports of mining products, the administration said.
Mining products accounted for 88.7 percent of the mineral-rich country's total exports in the four-month period.
During the same period, the landlocked country traded with 125 economies.

Oyu Tolgoi releases Q1 2023 performance results www.ot.mn
Oyu Tolgoi released its latest performance scorecard, highlighting key performance metrics for the first quarter of 2023 and providing an update on the underground mine production.
Following the safe blasting of 21st drawbells in its block cave mine, Oyu Tolgoi announced the commencement of underground production. The management team is committed to safely ramping up the underground mine to achieve a tripling in production to 500,000 tonnes of copper per year. This will be achieved through the construction of approximately hundreds of drawbells in operation by 2028-2036. The Oyu Tolgoi mine is a result of a successful partnership and collaborative efforts between the Government of Mongolia and Rio Tinto.
Oyu Tolgoi CEO Deirdré Lingenfelder said, “In the first quarter of 2023, we delivered on our plan commitments, and also reached a historic milestone. In March, we celebrated the commencement of underground production with our shareholders, the Government of Mongolia, our local community leaders, our Oyu Tolgoi employees, contractors and consultants past and present, many other stakeholders, and the wider public. We are standing on the shoulders of the giants who came before us. We have much effort ahead of us, and our focus is to ensure we continue to ramp up the business safely, sustainably and profitably. We will continue to build the technical and leadership capacity to support the business and deliver on our promises. This includes our commitments to people, communities and the environment. We can only do this by continuing to work in partnership.
Operational Excellence
Prioritised safety above all else and achieved an All Injury Frequency Rate (AIFR) of 0.14 per 200,000 people/hours worked.
Oyu Tolgoi is one of the most water-efficient copper mines in the world, using less than 0.55 cubic meters per tonne of concentrate (0.4 cubic meters for Q1 2023) compared to the 1.2 cubic meters per tonne average. Skarn Associates, an independent research institute, conducted a benchmarking exercise of 157 similar operations in 2022, confirming that Oyu Tolgoi is in the top 25% of water-efficient copper mining operations. The flow meters that measure Oyu Tolgoi’s water drawn from Gunni Khooloi are verified by Khanbogd’s environmental inspector and a state inspector on a monthly basis. In addition, Oyu Tolgoi’s overall water use is verified independently on behalf of International Financial Corporation every year and is audited independently every five years. The latest five-year audit was completed by Erdene Drilling in 2021, which confirmed Oyu Tolgoi’s water use data was accurate.
97% of Oyu Tolgoi’s workforce are Mongolian citizens. We also are proud to have more than 23% of our workforce (Oyu Tolgoi LLC) be women.
Paid US$89 million or MNT312 billion in taxes, fees and other payments to the Government of Mongolia. Since 2010, Oyu Tolgoi has paid US$3.98 billion or MNT9.2 trillion in taxes, fees and other payments, including VAT, to Mongolian suppliers.
Partnered with 609 suppliers, including 412 national businesses, accounting for 72% of the total operational procurement spend.
Q1 2023 Performance Scorecard can be viewed here.
Year in Review – 2022 can be viewed here.
Production update
Mined copper production increased by 41% from the first quarter of 2022 due to concentrator maintenance in the prior period and higher copper head grades (0.49% vs. 0.40%). First sustainable underground production was achieved during the period with 0.7 million tonnes of ore milled from the underground mine at an average copper head grade of 1.36%, and 9.6 million tonnes from the open pit with an average grade of 0.43%.
We achieved the first sustainable production from Panel 0 during the quarter. A total of 36 drawbells have been fired, including 17 drawbells during the quarter.
Shaft sinking rates improved during the quarter, and at the end of March, shafts 3 and 4 reached 503 metres and 623 metres below ground level, respectively. Final depths required for shafts 3 and 4 are 1,148 and 1,149 metres below ground level, respectively. Both shafts are expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2024, 15 months later than the 2020 Definitive Estimate.
Construction of conveyor to surface works continued to plan and is now over 40% complete. We also awarded major contracts for upgrade works planned for the concentrator, with contractors mobilising to the site.
Study work for Panels 1 and 2 remains on track to be completed in the first half of 2023. It will incorporate any ventilation impacts due to the shaft 3 and 4 delays as a result of COVID-19 restrictions and reprioritisation of the mobilised workforce over the course of 2022, as previously reported.
During the quarter, Rio Tinto, Oyu Tolgoi and the Government of Mongolia continued to work together towards the implementation of Mongolian Parliamentary Resolution 103, with the majority of matters now resolved. The international arbitration remains suspended while the parties attempt to reach an agreement on the tax matters.
Underground Development Update
We achieved the first sustainable production from Panel 0 during the quarter. A total of 36 drawbells have been fired, including 17 drawbells during the quarter.
Shaft sinking rates improved during the quarter, and at the end of March, shafts 3 and 4 reached 503 metres and 623 metres below ground level, respectively. Final depths required for shafts 3 and 4 are 1,148 and 1,149 metres below ground level, respectively. Both shafts are expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2024, 15 months later than the 2020 Definitive Estimate.
Construction of conveyor to surface works continued to plan and is now over 40% complete. We also awarded major contracts for upgrade works planned for the concentrator, with contractors mobilising to the site.
Study work for Panels 1 and 2 remains on track to be completed in the first half of 2023. It will incorporate any ventilation impacts due to the shaft 3 and 4 delays as a result of COVID-19 restrictions and reprioritisation of the mobilised workforce over the course of 2022, as previously reported.
Other Update
·During the quarter, Rio Tinto, Oyu Tolgoi and the Government of Mongolia continued to work together towards the implementation of Mongolian Parliamentary Resolution 103, with the majority of matters now resolved. The international arbitration remains suspended while the parties attempt to reach an agreement on the tax matters.
About Oyu Tolgoi LLC (www.ot.mn)
Oyu Tolgoi LLC, Mongolia's largest copper and gold mining company, is a strategic partnership between the Government of Mongolia, Turquoise Hill Resources and Rio Tinto. Located in the South Gobi, Oyu Tolgoi commenced shipment of product to customers in July 2013. Oyu Tolgoi is managed by Rio Tinto, which is investing global expertise and cutting-edge technology to help develop Mongolia’s mining industry and ensure Oyu Tolgoi is one of the world’s most advanced mines. For Oyu Tolgoi, nothing matters more than safety. The business operates under the principle that if a job cannot be done safely, it will not be done at all.

China-Mongolia Cooperation: Trade volume reached $12.2 billion in 2022 www.news.cgtn.com
Trade between China and Mongolia has spiked in recent years, with last year's figures reaching 12 billion US dollars, almost double the amount three years ago. The Belt and Road Initiative includes plans for more than 30 projects in Mongolia, ranging from infrastructure and energy to joint efforts to combat desertification. CGTN's Sarangua Tumur has more from Ulaanbaatar.
SARANGUA TUMUR Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia "China has been Mongolia's largest trading partner and its main foreign investor over the past decade. In 2022, trade volume between China and Mongolia reached 12.2 billion US dollars, almost double that of 2020."
BAYARKHUU DASHDORJ Former Ambassador of Mongolia "Last year, the heads of state of both countries agreed on the goal of increasing the trade volume to 20 billion US dollars in the near future. The construction of border ports and railway connections on both sides is crucial to accelerate the economic ties between China and Mongolia."
SARANGUA TUMUR Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia "The Mongolian government has formulated a development policy for Mongolia, known as the Development Road, which aligns with China's Belt and Road Initiative. Both sides aim to expand and deepen cooperation in areas such as the economy, energy, infrastructure, climate response, green development, and desertification treatment. China has commended Mongolia's 'Billion Trees' initiative and expressed its willingness to discuss the establishment of a cooperation center to combat desertification."
SUMIYA CHULUUNBAATAR Secretary of Mongolia-China Friendship Association "Mongolia is set to host the 17th Conference of Parties of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in 2026. China also has significant experience in managing sandstorms, afforestation and desertification. Given that both countries are affected by climate change and desertification, and share similar terrains and climate, it's crucial to actively promote environmental cooperation between them in the near future."
SARANGUA TUMUR Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia "Over the past 10 years, China has granted $1.5 billion of soft loans to the Mongolian government. Most recently, a series of projects were implemented with non-payable Chinese aid and soft loans under the BRI, including Mongolia's first expressway and the first development center for disabled children. However, the two sides are also expected to cooperate on more ambitious projects in the near future."
Sarangua Tumur, CGTN, Ulaanbaatar.

Church’s Youngest Cardinal Hopeful for Papal Visit to Mongolia www.ncregister.com
(An Interview With Cardinal Giorgio Marengo) On his return to Rome from South Sudan in February, Pope Francis offered the possibility of a visit to Mongolia this September. It would be the first papal pilgrimage to the country. Register senior international correspondent Victor Gaetan contacted Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, apostolic prefect in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, to learn more. The interview began last October in Bangkok, Thailand, where Gaetan and Cardinal Marengo met at the monthlong Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences.
The Church in Mongolia is sometimes called the newest in the world because missionaries started from nothing in 1992, following the fall of communism. The entire country is a missionary jurisdiction, with nine parishes serving 1,450 faithful. Cardinal Marengo, who will turn 49 next month, was ordained a Consolata missionary in 2001. He first went to Mongolia in 2003.
Your Eminence, there’s no reference to a papal visit on Mongolia’s main Catholic website, although Pope Francis clearly stated his hope to visit. Are you getting ready?
Technically not yet, because we must get instructions from Rome; but, of course, since Pope Francis mentioned it on his flight back from Africa, and again during his general audience a few days later, we are in the “being ready” mode but not yet technically starting the preparations.
How important would this visit be?
It will be a very historic visit, with a great impact on bilateral relations between the Holy See and Mongolia, as well as a great joy for the small Catholic community in Mongolia.
Protocol requires an invitation from the president of the country and religious leaders. Has that occurred?
Oh, yes! An invitation from the president is the fundamental requirement for a papal visit to any country. Last summer, Aug. 24, just a few days before the consistory, a delegation from the Mongolian government, including a former president, went to Rome and handed Francis an official invitation from the current president.
How is communication between the Catholic community and the dominant religious group in Mongolia, the Buddhists?
We have very good relations that have grown throughout the years. Dialogue with those who represent the majority has been a priority from the very beginning. The majority religion is Mongolian Buddhism. Buddhism came to Mongolia at different moments of its history and mainly from Tibet. So the roots of Mongolian Buddhism are in Tibet, but in recent years people have started referring to “Mongolian Buddhism” because it has become a particular form of Buddhism. That’s why, last May 28, we were received by the Holy Father.
I remember reading about that meeting … and you were there, too. Wonderful!
Yes. There were some contacts in the past between Buddhist monks and the Holy Father, but this was the first-ever audience granted to a delegation of Mongolian Buddhist monks with him.
And the next day, on May 29, Pope Francis announced 21 new cardinals, and you were among them. That seemed to be a very high level of diplomacy: You visited the Holy Father with a delegation of Mongolian monks; then you were immediately elevated. How did you read that?
It was, of course, a great surprise for me. I don’t know if it was planned in such a way as it happened, but we know how important interreligious dialogue is for Pope Francis.
Was there a celebration?
That very day was a Sunday, so I went to Sunday Mass with two Mongolian Catholic priests who were traveling with me, together with a Buddhist monk. We went to visit a community of Consolata Missionary sisters outside Rome. We had a nice meeting, and, meanwhile, the announcement was given at the Angelus. We got the news only after. And the Buddhist abbot was the first to congratulate me for the appointment!
How does your elevation to the College of Cardinals further enhance your ability to represent the Catholic Church in Asia and in Mongolia?
I am obviously very grateful to Pope Francis for having thought of a cardinal from Mongolia, thus promoting the image of his small Church. We trust that this choice can indeed contribute to intensifying official relations on a further level. On the other hand, since the Catholic tradition is still little known in Mongolia, we still need to work hard in introducing the Church into the real social fabric.
Are there restrictions on evangelization or conversion in Mongolia?
Mongolia’s constitution grants a fundamental right to practice or not practice religious belief so religious freedom is included in the fundamental rights that Mongolia recognizes for its citizens. This fundamental right is protected so legislation allows the practice of different religious traditions.
Is the Catholic Church recognized by the country’s constitution?
Mongolia welcomes all kinds of religious groups, but, of course, in the implementation of this fundamental right, the government has a set of rules and regulations according to which the different religious groups have to register and be acknowledged officially. The rules are there, and we have to follow procedures. Based on that, religious freedom is guaranteed.
Will other Buddhist leaders from around Asia come to Mongolia if the Pope visits?
That I really don’t know. It is beyond my knowledge. I don’t know how the Buddhist world will react to this visit, but, for sure, there will be a meeting of the Holy Father with the other religious traditions, not just Buddhism. Here in Mongolia, we have good relations with leaders of all religions: There are active communities of Muslims believers, followers of Shamanism, Hindu, the Baha’i and then the Christian denominations.
You have been in Mongolia as a missionary for 20 years. How difficult was the missionary work for you at the beginning and throughout the years?
Well, it took me — and us — because I went with a group of my own society, the Consolata Missionaries, both priests and sisters — a long time for our insertion into the new reality. This is something we were aware of, belonging to a missionary congregation, aimed at providing missionary energies to wherever there is a need, especially where the Church is not well established or even absent. We all knew it would take us a long time, and it did take a long time.
That’s a very delicate and crucial moment in the life of any missionary: to spend time, quality time, learning; first the language, then the history, culture, traditions, politics, economy of the country where one is sent.
So we spent the first three years just learning the language in Ulaanbaatar. In the third year, we started doing some little services for the local community in Ulaanbaatar. And in dialogue with the first apostolic prefect, Msgr. [Wenceslao] Padilla — the first pioneer priest, with CICM, an international missionary congregation — in dialogue with him, we offered our services to establish the presence of the Church in a part of the country where it had never been.
Where was that?
We embarked on this very interesting adventure. We established a tiny community, in a region called Arvaikheer, 450 kilometers southwest of Ulaanbaatar. It is exactly in the geographical center of the country, where the initial capital city of the Mongolian empire was established.
It was more adventurous because there were no other missionaries, not even Catholics there, so it was really a matter of inserting ourselves, again, into this new reality. It was a grace for me, a great grace, and opportunity to know more about the history, culture and religions of Mongolia; because living in the countryside offered more in this regard than in the capital city.
There, I spent 14 years, and a small community was eventually established, with a few friends from the neighborhood who started being interested. With all the due permissions of the government, we established a small church and some social projects.
I arrived in Mongolia in 2003. In 2006, we moved to this new area, and I spent the rest of my time there, until two years ago, when I was appointed apostolic prefect.
The gulf is so wide between the poverty and isolation you have witnessed in Mongolia and the privilege and convenience so many Catholics in the West live among. What lessons of faith and Christ’s love have you learned in Mongolia that you might not have gained, had you stayed in an Italian parish?
Taking everything for granted is a very common risk when living in more affluent conditions. The richness of having lived for 14 years in a rural area of Mongolia, in direct contact with the ancestral rhythms of the seasons and of human life stretched to the limit, is a grace I would not want to let go of. From people who live their faith in simplicity at 40 degrees below zero, braving blizzards and stray dogs to come to Mass every morning in the middle of winter, I am led to give thanks every day for the great gift of faith. It is these people, mysteriously touched by grace, who encourage me to offer them the best, through a human and spiritual journey of continuous growth in faith.
In the beginning, how many Consolata missionaries were there with you?
We were two priests and three sisters. I was the only Italian among the priests. First, I was with an Argentinian priest, two Italian sisters and one from Colombia; then, eventually, the Argentinian left, and another Italian priest came.
Were the people welcoming?
In general, Mongolians are known to be very welcoming. The nomadic attitude is very hospitable. On the other hand, we have to remember that Mongolia was very isolated for 70 years, as a communist country, without being a member of the Soviet Union, but it was one of the first countries that embraced “real socialism.” Because of that, we were cautious and attentive, especially when we talked about religious matters.
But then, thanks to the relationships we built out of human respect and collaboration, I would say that we were welcomed and accepted there. Especially now, after so many years, we have very good relations with government officials, and we collaborate in many aspects for the good of the society.
As you are a European, do you find a keener sense of the transcendent in Asia than in Italy or Western Europe at this time in history?
Indeed, I do find it here. I’ve devoted some studies to this topic, especially while preparing my Ph.D. research in missiology. Since the age of Enlightenment, a break has occurred in the West between faith and reason, or, if you like, between religious and scientific attitudes. This is not the case for Asia. While, in some respects, the introduction of a greater critical sense might be useful in Asia, I believe that in the West there is much to be learned from the wise attitude that knows how to treasure the fundamental elements of religions in society.
When you engage in dialogue with officials, what language do you speak?
Usually I relate to them in Mongolian because I can handle the language. But, of course, some of the high-ranked monks or abbots do speak English or non-Mongolian languages like Russian. But I feel at home with Mongolian, so we usually use Mongolian.
Fantastic. Have you also explored the life of Buddhism in neighboring countries such as Thailand?
Well, I attended two of the Buddhist-Christian colloquia, an initiative of the Vatican going back to the 1990s. These meetings are prepared for two to three years, and they rotate between different Asian countries.
This has given me a great opportunity to know more about the Buddhist world. I attended the 2015 edition in India. It was really an eye-opener to the wider Buddhist work because, in Mongolia, I knew only the reality of Mongolian Buddhism. Then, in 2017, at the edition in Taiwan, which was again, a fruitful initiative, I asked the organizers to invite one Buddhist monk from Mongolia because they have not been present before. This monk who attended is also a well-known abbot of a big monastery in Mongolia. So these occasions gave me an opportunity to know more about Buddhism in general, and they are also an experience of friendship.
Tell me about the Catholic religious serving Mongolia today.
We have two local Mongolian priests, 26 foreign missionary priests, and more than 40 sisters, all from other countries.
From what other countries?
We have a very big variety: from 22 different countries and belonging to 10 religious societies and congregations. Our priests are from Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Cameroon, Congo, elsewhere … Indonesia, Philippines, one French priest, one priest from East Timor, one from Czech Republic, one from Colombia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
The biggest group is represented by CICM missionaries, who were pioneers in Mongolia. My predecessor, Bishop [Wenceslao] Padilla, was the CICM superior. It’s a missionary congregation originally from Belgium, founded in the 19th century. Also present are a group of diocesan priests from South Korea, the Salesians of Don Bosco, and my community, Consolata missionaries.
In what language is Mass given?
In Mongolian, always; every day in daily Mass. At the cathedral we have a service for the international community, and I appointed one priest to be chaplain for the international community, so there is also a Mass in English.
BY: Victor Gaetan
Victor Gaetan Victor Gaetan is a senior correspondent for the National Catholic Register, focusing on international issues. He also writes for Foreign Affairs magazine, The American Spectator and the Washington Examiner. He contributed to Catholic News Service for several years. The Catholic Press Association of North America has given his articles four first place awards, including Individual Excellence, over the last five years. Gaetan received a license (B.A.) in Ottoman and Byzantine Studies from Sorbonne University in Paris, an M.A. from the Fletcher School of International Law and Diplomacy, and a Ph.D. in Ideology in Literature from Tufts University. His book God’s Diplomats: Pope Francis, Vatican Diplomacy, and America’s Armageddon was published by Rowman & Littlefield in July 2021. Visit his website at VictorGaetan.org.

A Secret History of Mongolian Wolves www.historytoday.com
Mongolians have always lived with wolves. During the imperial era, the relationship was an ambiguous one. Under socialism, it became existential.
In Mongolia, where the dominant lifestyle is nomadic pastoralism, threat comes from the land. Wolves (chono) are found throughout the nation’s various ecosystems: steppe, semi-desert, mountains. Their existence has been lamented and romanticised for centuries.
Mongolia’s most famous son, Chinggis Khan, was supposedly descended from one. As recorded in The Secret History of the Mongols, Chinggis’ first ancestor was Grey Wolf (Börte Chono). Another ancestor, ‘Alan the Fair’, was impregnated by a ‘heavenly golden dog’ – likely a euphemism for a wolf. The Secret History was written after Chinggis’ death in 1227 and is one of the few documents written in the imperial Mongolian language. Commissioned by Chinggis’ grandson Möngke Khan, it covers Chinggis’ ancestry and was intended as a blueprint for future rulers. But though we learn of Chinggis’ lupine origins, it also contains multiple references to wolves as an enemy. When Öelün, Chinggis’ mother, rebukes him for killing his half-brother Bekter, she compares him to ‘a wolf that stalks in the whirling blizzard’. Chinggis had four generals, named his ‘Four Dogs’, who were said to be fed human flesh and are described as ‘like wolves driving teeming sheep’.
In the 17th century, another historical chronicle, the Golden Summary, continued this depiction of wolves as threats. It also presented Grey Wolf as human, rather than an animal. From the Mongol Empire through to the Manchu-ruled Qing Empire (1636-1912), wolves were commonly seen as an enemy to humans. But though many religious rituals prayed for protection from the animals, or for the skills to hunt them – killing a wolf is said to generate khiimori, good luck – wolves were not always villains. Poems written by the Khalkha prince Tsogtu Taiji (1581-1637) included lines that invited sympathy for wolves and thieves, as both stole to survive. In the 19th century, the satirist Sangdag the Poet wrote ‘What the Wolf Encircled by the Hunt Said’. In the poem, a caught wolf pleads for mercy, admitting that he is a sinful and pitiful creature, but arguing that he had no choice but to eat other animals. An anonymous manuscript, ‘The Conversation between the Wolf and the Noble’, tells a similar story, although in this case the captured wolf and noble debate the wolf’s sins and the merits of sparing his life.
In most sympathetic texts, wolves were presented as pitiable creatures. This trope continued in Buddhist thought well into the 20th century. In the 1930s, the Panchen Lama, a major leader in Tibetan and Mongolian Buddhism, asked his compatriots not to hunt wolves, urging compassion for the sinful animal. Despite his pleas, wolf hunting continued.
Enemies of the people
In 1921 Mongolian revolutionaries, supported by the Bolsheviks, rid their country of the occupying Chinese and White Russian forces. In 1924, the nation was renamed the Mongolian People’s Republic, becoming the second socialist country in the world. The government followed the socialist blueprint pioneered by the Soviet Union, but retained the mobile herding system that suited the Mongolian environment. Most economic reforms were delayed by a series of crises: civil war in the early 1930s, followed by Stalin-inspired purges of Buddhist monks, Buryat immigrants and dissidents towards the end of the decade before the outbreak of the Second World War.
By the mid-1950s, the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party was sufficiently in control of the country to implement collectivisation. Party activists would confiscate individually held livestock to form collectives in which herders would work common livestock for a salary. Campaigns were launched to improve livestock production. Veterinarians worked to treat diseases; officials invested in infrastructure and policies to alleviate winter disasters (zud) and drought; the government pushed for wolf extermination.
Thus, a professional class of wolf hunters was introduced. These hunters had quotas of pelts to fulfil, receiving a salary and additional bounties for each pelt turned in. The value of the bounty depended on the sex and age of the wolf, with pregnant females and pups being the most valuable.
Decorated and experienced hunters wrote handbooks and held conferences to share their knowledge. J. Damdin’s Notes of a Grizzled Hunter (1963) provides advice on how to track and kill wolves, concluding that ‘the work exterminating the enemy wolf is very important’. S. Luwsan’s Mongolian Hunter’s Notes (1986) includes practical advice: ‘Hunters must not drink vodka or smoke tobacco.’ After suggesting strategies for how to hunt wolves, Luwsan concludes by declaring the wolf a ‘very bad intentioned, darkly suspicious animal’.
Before professionalisation, training had been passed from father to son. Older hunters often chastised younger hunters for their perceived lack of skill. But such criticisms were more than the age-old story of generational divide. Reverence for age and experience was propagated by the socialist government, despite the promise of revolutionary new ideas. Hunting was seen as Marxist labour (though Marx described it as the earliest stage in the evolution of societies). Most hunting strategies had long histories and were identical to those found in other countries, such as the United States. The wisdom of older hunters was highly valued.
By the book
Handbooks for hunters often began with a history of Mongolian hunting, supporting the idea that this labour was a valid form of Marxist production. This meant that in the early 1960s, while historians were being criticised by the government for their positive evaluations of Chinggis Khan and the Mongol Empire, handbooks continued to celebrate mentions of hunting in the Secret History, as well as in ‘superstitious’ religious texts. The Soviet Union was commended for its success in wolf extermination; so too were rival capitalist countries such as the US.
In the 1950s and 1960s, as part of the global push for wildlife conservation, the Mongolian government instituted protections for a number of endangered species, including the takhi (wild horse) and the yangir (ibex). Wolves, rather than being seen as part of the natural ecosystem, were blamed for eating endangered species. Of course, the real culprit was displacement by humans. Despite this, anti-wolf sentiment was spread by various books. MPR’s Game Animals (1969) warned that ‘the wolf causes immeasurable harm to our national economy’. Some books celebrated the methods of killing wolves, including the introduction of strong poisons from the USSR, specifically barium fluoride acetate.
�Like a wolf
Wolves soon became a common metaphor for wicked people. Like wolves, wealthy ‘class enemies’ preyed on poor herders. In the 1930s, the Russian linguist Nicholas Poppe recorded songs in various Buryat collectives, including one that connected wolves with kulaks, the rich exploiters who were among the enemies of collectivisation:
In the forest on the western mountain,
There will be no-ever present wolves.
All of us will form a commune;
There will be no rich kulaks.
The other class enemy in the Mongolian People’s Republic was the Buddhist clergy. During the socialist era, lamas and wolves – both said to be greedy and cruel – were targeted for extermination (ustgakh). Thousands of lamas were executed, their monasteries destroyed. In the post-socialist era, tales spread of monks surviving these bloody purges by living with wolves in their dens.
Yet there were some pro-wolf voices in socialist Mongolia. In the mid-1960s the author D. Namdag wrote a novella, The Howl of the Old Wolf. The protagonist is an old three-legged wolf who has survived years being hunted, clearly an avatar for Namdag, who was imprisoned twice. The old wolf lives with his daughter and her mate, but when the younger wolves feed on sheep, a professional hunter kills them. The old wolf howls, but receives no answer. Socialist censors deemed the novella subversive and banned it.
The future
Though their numbers decreased, wolves were never exterminated in Mongolia. With the end of socialism in 1991, the planned economy fell away, including quotas for wolf pelts. The state-directed persecution of wolves ended, but this did not mean the end of wolf hunting. Mongolian provinces still hold wolf hunts, with socialist-style bounties. In the capital, Ulaanbaatar, bounties are often offered for dead feral dogs, another holdover from socialism. Many Mongolians openly lament the increase in the wolf population that followed the end of professional hunters. But wolves are not the only problem facing Mongolian herders, whose livelihoods are threatened by mining and climate change.
There are also an increasing number of pro-wolf voices. In Mongolia, pro-wolf books are sold alongside works by older hunters who worked for the socialist government. Gotowyn Akim’s Dog of Heaven: Truths and Myths of Blue Mongolia’s Blue Wolf combats prejudice using historic stories, such as lamas escaping purges with the help of wolves. Some promote American-style conservation efforts. But Akim and other pro-wolf voices are a minority, activists pushing back against dominant anti-wolf feeling.
Mongolians have a complicated relationship with animals and the environment. This was true during the imperial period, continued to be true under socialism, and remains true today. The romantic notion of Mongolians revering the wolves they live alongside is a fantasy.
BY: Kenneth Linden is an environmental historian of Mongolia.

Ambassador Richard Buangan’s Remarks at the Launch Event for USAID Support for Dzud Response www.mn.usembassy.gov
We are witnessing Mongolia’s harshest dzud in over a decade. The United States and Mongolia are friends, and friends help each other in hard times. We are proud to stand with the Mongolian people in their time of need.
I am proud to note that the U.S. Government, through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), will give an additional $900,000 (over three billion Tugriks) to World Vision in response to the dzud disaster appeal.
This money will provide livestock fodder and cash to vulnerable herder households and brings the total U.S. Government dzud response contribution to $1 million.
World Vision is a trusted partner and has the experience and expertise to efficiently and effectively distribute the fodder and cash to the herders most in need.
This response work builds on USAID’s ongoing disaster risk reduction programs that strengthen livestock herders’ resilience against dzuds and other natural disasters. It will not completely relieve the hardships of all the herders but it will help over 3,300 households in important ways.
I have personally met with herder families to hear for myself their stories of how they are making it through the winter. I know that herding is a difficult life, and although most are reliably independent, sometimes people need help.
Of course, the United States and Mongolia are not alone in assisting those in need. We are part of an international coalition acting in concert thanks to the efforts of the United Nations. The United Nations is coordinating all the donors to ensure that assistance is distributed equitably, and people receive what they need. I would like to take a moment to recognize UN Resident Coordinator Mr. Tapan Mishra. Tapan, where are you? Tapan has spearheaded both the appeal and distribution of international assistance and has done a wonderful job. Thank you, Tapan.
I’m proud to say that this new project is another example of how USAID is ramping up in Mongolia under the U.S.-Mongolia Strategic Partnership. While USAID has been in Mongolia since 1991, over the last couple of years it has launched new initiatives in a variety of areas, including supporting small businesses, strengthening democratic institutions, improving energy governance, and assisting in the fight against COVID-19.
The United States and Mongolia enjoy a strong, long-standing partnership built on common interests and shared democratic values. Our strategic partnership is more than just words on paper; it is about delivering real results. I am confident this program will deliver real results for the Mongolian people. Thanks again to all our partners, and I wish you all great success.

AI: Which jobs are most at risk from the technology? www.bbc.com
As the man widely seen as the godfather of artificial intelligence (AI) warns about growing dangers from how it is developing, businesses are scrambling to see how they can use the technology to their advantage.
Geoffrey Hinton, 75, who used to work for Google has warned that AI chatbots could soon be more intelligent than humans.
Many businesses bosses are telling me that the hot topic presented at board meetings is how to deploy ChatGPT style technology across their businesses as quickly as possible.
A few weeks ago, I watched as the boss of one of Britain's biggest consumer-facing companies looked at his computer, entered the transcript of a customer complaint call, and asked ChatGPT to summarise it and respond to it based on set of rules he made up on the spot.
In about a minute it came up with a very credible answer, with no need for any coding.
The end result was, I'm told, about 85% accurate. That is a bit less than human call centre staff, but it cost a fraction of a percentage point of the cost of deploying staff.
The good news for all, the pure enhancement to productivity, would occur if all the staff were now focused on the 15%, that could not handled by AI. But the scope to go further, and cut back on staff, is clearly there.
AI Large Language Models are, however, getting more powerful. Not yet quite as capable as an intelligent adult, but not far off.
Advances are occurring faster than expected, and could be reaching the point where they become exponential.
The pace of change and adoption means there is scope for an economic and jobs shock to the economy as soon as this year.
The moment it becomes cleverer than the cleverest person, in pretty short order, we could get to "runaway capability" - more advanced than the entirety of humanity, on the way to what has been described by another former Google AI insider Ray Kurzweil as the "singularity". Are we at the start of that exponential moment right about now?
AI has the possibility of taking a bunch of sectors of the economy, which have been immune to productivity improvements up until now, because they were time and knowledge intensive sectors, and transforming them.
Technology has given us lots of improvements in the quality of life. All of our smartphones now have all the content we could want, always instantly available on streaming services.
One top policymaker told me that "a lot of that innovation has made our leisure time more enjoyable. It's not made our working time, more productive. It may have eradicated boredom as a human experience. But has it made you more productive at work?"
The real shock has been that these technologies are usable in a commercial context, not just for "low-cognitive, repetitive" - i.e. robotic - tasks, long thought susceptible to automation.
The surprise has been how deployable these technology is to highly creative, high-value work, which had been assumed to be relatively protected from competition.
The Open AI/ ChatGPT founder Sam Altman has himself expressed his surprise at the use so far. Specifically, the "blank page" or "first draft" stage at the start of the creative process of writing copy, creating an image, or music, or coding a programme can be achieved in seconds rather than weeks of briefing and refining.
Again this is what is possible with AI's not-yet-as-intelligent-as-an-adult human. So the good news is that rapid deployment of this technology, faster than the rest of the world, could solve the UK's longstanding productivity crisis.
The bad news is that it could occur so rapidly as to overtake workers' ability to adapt in time, creating social and economic crises. Could we face in call centres and creative studios in the 2020s, the equivalent of what happened in the coal mines in the 1980s?
Some of the people most reluctant about the size of government in Silicon Valley have started to suggest that states might need to provide a basic income. The response of techno enthusiasts is the mantra: "You wont be replaced by an AI, but you might be replaced by someone who knows how to use AI".
But they used to say that's why everybody should learn how to code. That might not be such sage career advice any more.
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