Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Does China need more Russian gas via the Power-of-Siberia 2 pipeline? www.hellenicshippingnews.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with his counterparts from China and Mongolia on Thursday, where they discussed a major new infrastructure project, Power-of-Siberia 2, to deliver gas to China via Mongolia.
Russia proposed the route years ago but the plan has gained urgency, as Moscow looks to Beijing to replace Europe as its major gas customer.
Negotiations will be complex, however, not least because China is not expected to need additional gas supply until after 2030, industry experts said.
WHAT IS THE POWER OF SIBERIA 2 PIPELINE?
The proposed pipeline would bring gas from the huge Yamal peninsula reserves in west Siberia – the main source of gas supply to Europe – to China, the world’s top energy consumer and growing gas consumer.
The idea gained impetus when the first pipes of the currently operational Power of Siberia pipeline were laid in Russia’s eastern Yakutia region in 2014.
That pipeline runs for 3,000 kilometers (1864.11 miles)through Siberia and into northeastern China’s Heilongjiang province.
The new route would cut through the eastern half of Mongolia, arriving into northern China’s Inner Mongolia region, not far from major population centers like Beijing, according to a map drawn up by Russia’s Gazprom.
Gazprom began a feasibility study on the project in 2020 and is aiming to start delivering gas by 2030.
The 2,600-km pipeline could carry 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year, Gazprom says, slightly less than the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which links Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
WHAT DOES MONGOLIA SAY?
Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh said on Thursday that he supports the construction of oil and gas pipelines from Russia to China via Mongolia, adding that its technical and economic justification should be studied.
Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai told the Financial Times in July that he expected Russia to begin construction on the pipeline within two years.
Luvsannamsrai also said the final route of the line through Mongolia was not yet decided, according to the newspaper.
DOES CHINA NEED MORE RUSSIAN GAS?
Russia’s Gazprom already supplies gas to China through the first Power of Siberia pipeline under a 30-year, $400 billion deal, which was launched at the end of 2019.
Expected to supply 16 billion cubic meters of gas this year, it will deliver increasing volumes before reaching full capacity of 38 bcm by 2025.
In February, Beijing also agreed to buy gas from Russia’s Far East island of Sakhalin, which will be transported via a new pipeline across the Japan Sea to northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, reaching up to 10 bcm a year around 2026.
Meanwhile, China is also negotiating a new pipeline – Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline D – to source 25 bcm of gas annually for 30 years from Turkmenistan via Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
On top of piped gas, the country also has long-term contracts with Qatar, the United States and global oil majors for 42 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be shipped in on tankers, with most of the supplies starting in the next five years.
“Fundamentally we see little support for Power of Siberia 2 to materialize before 2030 as China has secured enough supplies by then,” said a Beijing-based industry expert who declined to be named due to company policy.
“It will be a tremendously complex negotiation which could take years, as it carries huge political, commercial and financial risks,” said the expert.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Aizhu Chen in Singapore; Writing by Dominique Patton; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)
D. Munkhzul wins World Youth Chess Championships www.montsame.mn
During the ‘World Youth U14, U16, U18 Championships 2022’ held in Mamaia, Romania on September 05-17, Mongolia’s FIDE Master D.Munkhzul became a world champion twice in the U15-U16 tournament by winning undefeated, scoring 8.5 points from 11 games.
D. Munkhzul won her first world championship trophy 8 years ago by taking first place in the under-8 age category at the Junior World Chess Championship held in Durban, South Africa, in 2014.
International achievements of the two-time world champion D. Munkhzul, who qualified for an International Master title:
-In 2014 and 2022 World Youth U14, U16, U18 Champion
-In 2017 and 2018 World School Chess Champion
-In 2014 and 2016 Asian Youth Chess Champion
-In 2015 and 2019 Runner up in World School Chess Championship
-In 2022, she participated in the 44th World Chess Olympiad as a stand-by player of the Mongolian National Chess team and successfully played.
With her achievements at the World Youth U14, U16, U18 Championships 2022’, FIDE Master D. Munkhzul has qualified for a WIM title.
Annual harvest fair kicks off in Mongolia's capital www.xinhuanet.com
The 17th edition of the "Green Days of Autumn" harvest fair opened in the Mongolian capital on Monday as the country seeks to bolster food production at home.
The annual event is being co-organized by the country's Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, the municipal government of the national capital Ulan Bator, the representative of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Mongolia and other organizations.
The event aims to support farmers and herders; provide urban residents with fresh produce, meat and dairy products; and promote food security and nutrition. Organizers say Mongolia wants to support its domestic food production and diversify food imports.
More than 400 farmers, herders and companies operating in the food and agriculture sectors from the country's 21 provinces are participating in the week-long fair, displaying over 2,000 products for sale.
Mongolia's economy is largely dependent on export earnings from the mining sector. Promoting the development of the food and agricultural sector is seen as a viable solution to diversify its economy.
Mongolia goes ‘green’ with new FIFA Forward project! www.arunfoot.com
On this year’s World Environment Day, FIFA President Gianni Infantino delivered a video message launching a “Green Card for the Planet” campaign to raise awareness for the protection of the environment. In this message, the FIFA President called for wide-reaching support and action in protecting the environment and saving the future of the planet.
A little over three months on a FIFA Forward project in Mongolia has reflected that call for greater action. The Mongolian Football Federation (MFF) Football Centre – the venue for the world’s first 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar™ qualifier – underwent an eco-friendly pitch renovation. Unlike such renovations in the past, cork was used as the refilling material for the pitch instead of rubber – all part of a contribution to help implement the FIFA President’s “Green Card for the Planet” message as MFF President Ganbaatar Amgalanbaatar pointed out.
“We are very pleased that the newly renovated field is eco-friendly,” he told FIFA.com. “This is a contribution to FIFA’s “Green Card for the Planet” campaign. We took part in this campaign by showing our green card.”
With the FIFA President’s vision of making football truly global, world’s football governing body has provided consistent support to the game’s development in countries across the world over recent years. In the case of Mongolia, an even bigger project looms at the MFF Football Centre – the installation of the all-weather airdome at the National Team Training Centre which is expected to be completed in November.
Once finished, it will provide the players with cover and protection during training throughout Mongolia’s long and often snowy winters. MFF General Secretary Terbaatar Dambiijav expressed his thanks to FIFA for its help down the years.
“We have seen FIFA as the father of the global football family,” he said. “I believe that FIFA’s support helps Mongolian Football Federation run its activities in line with FIFA and AFC. This newly built football turf pitch will bring joy and happiness to football fans.”
As a matter of fact, the MFF Football Centre holds a special place in the hearts of Mongolian fans. This was the stadium where their national team defeated Brunei Darussalam 2-0 in June 2019 for a memorable victory in what was the world’s first qualifier on the road to Qatar 2022. Despite losing 2-1 away, the Blue Wolves progressed to the next round for the first time.
The newly-renovated stadium recently had its first test as venue for 2023 AFC U-20 Asian Cup Group E qualifiers and, with that FIFA World Cup qualifying memory still fresh in mind, the nation’s youth team entered the campaign aiming to progress from a group which also featured Korea Republic, Malaysia and Sri Lanka playing as hosts. Despite failing to advance, however, the four points Mongolia earned with a 6-0 defeat of Sri Lanka and a 1-1 draw against Malaysia showcased what progress they have made.
“Our victory in the World Cup qualifying [against Brunei Darussalam] was a wonderful moment,” continued Dambiijav. “It encouraged our children to play football. Now we have a new pitch which is eco-friendly to both nature and people and I hope our fans will enjoy watching games here and our teams will gain more victories.”
Fitch: Copper price to regain March peaks in 2027 www.mining.com
Copper prices have been hovering either side of $3.50 a pound ($7,700 tonne) for the better part of two months, down 21% since the start of the year and nowhere near record highs touched in early March.
Slowing global growth and a strong dollar, which makes copper more expensive in the rest of the world, have undercut the bull case based on historically low inventories and robust longer term demand fundamentals.
A new report by Fitch Solutions cuts the research firm’s 2023 price forecasts for next year by double digits to $8,400 down from a previous projection of an average of $9,580 for the year.
Source: Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research
Fitch expects a small surplus on the copper market for this year, but from 2023 expects growing deficits peaking at some 9 million tonnes by the end of the decade as demand accelerates “mainly driven by consumption related to the green transition.”
Fitch says “a significant pipeline of new projects [which] will bring additional copper to the market – particularly in Chile, Peru, Australia and Canada” and also expects “a number of the key supply issues in Latin America to ease in the coming years”:
“From around 2026, however, these improvements in supply will be increasingly outpaced by demand growth from the global transition to a green economy.”
Fitch sees steady improvement to copper prices over the next five years with the metal returning to its March peaks above $10,000 in 2027 and $11,500 in 2031 as “a long term structural deficit emerges.“
Fitch points to a number of risk factors that could darken this rosy long term forecast however including further strengthening of the dollar if US monetary policy tightening accelerates, further regulation by the Chinese government to reduce commodity prices, a more stable resolution to some of the industrial tensions in Latin America and faster-than-expected uptake in copper recycling.
Xanadu poised to benefit from Mongolian mining laws www.thewest.com.au
Equities firm MST Access believes changes to the Government of Mongolia’s mining code has the potential to benefit foreign investment with revisions to the nation’s laws expected later this year.
One of the potential beneficiaries of the proposed changes is ASX-listed Xanadu Mines that is aiming to develop its Kharmagtai copper-gold project in Mongolia.
An independent assessment by MST Access — engaged by Xanadu — expects the government’s updated mining code to be competitive with other successful mining jurisdictions.
The firm says Mongolia is seeking to attract foreign investment and lower barriers to doing business, particularly in the mining industry.
The changes are aimed at boosting in-country investment, underpinned by improving investor confidence and conviction.
MST argues the Mongolian government’s key priority is to draw in new investment prospects and ensure transitional arrangements take on board suggestions in addition to lessons learnt from existing investors.
Mongolia’s reputation as a mining jurisdiction is seen to be ever increasing in terms of resource project discovery and development, with highly prospective and under-explored geology.
The country’s potential has been highlighted by the magnitude of Xanadu’s Kharmagtai project that has a mineral resource estimate identified at a massive 1.1 billion tonnes for 3 million tonnes of contained copper and 8 million ounces of gold.
MST says that during the recent 2022 Mongolian Economic Forum in April, mining was identified as a key area of focus for Mongolia’s ‘New Revival Policy’ as part of the country’s long-term development plan — Vision 2050.
Just last month Xanadu received Australian Foreign Investment Review Board approval for Chinese mining giant Zijin to acquire shares in the company to develop Kharmagtai.
The board’s no-objection notification is the first of three approvals required for Zijin to continue its three-phase investment in Xanadu that was announced in April.
The deal still requires approval from the Chinese Government and Xanadu shareholders in order to be formalised.
However, Xanadu is confident both approvals are on track in addition to funding from the remaining two investment phases for the upcoming December quarter.
MST Access says it considered Australian FIRB approval to be of higher risk relative to the People’s Republic of China and shareholder approval and the key risk to the transaction proceeding.
According to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Mongolia has the potential for major economic expansion over the coming decades with its wealth of natural resources.
In 2013 the department introduced the Australia-Mongolia Extractives Program that aims to improve government capacity to manage a vital resource for Mongolia and underlines Australia’s political and commercial interest in a well-functioning extractives sector in the country.
Xanadu has recently kicked off a new exploration campaign at the company’s highly prospective Red Mountain project in the South Gobi region of Mongolia targeting shallow high-grade gold, silver and copper.
The company has a 100 per cent share in Red Mountain where early exploration has defined broad zones of strong quartz stockwork veining and associated high-grade gold mineralisation.
The project has a 30-year mining licence and comprises an underexplored porphyry district covering about 57 square kilometres.
As the Mongolian government continues to make changes to its foreign investment framework and mining laws, companies like Xanadu appear to be in the box seat to reap the benefits.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@wanews.com.au
Tycoon running a quarter of China’s copper trade is on the ropes www.bloomberg.com
From a start guarding trains full of metal from thieves on freezing winter nights, He Jinbi built a copper trading house so powerful that it handles one of every four tons imported into China.
A born trader with an infectious sense of humor, the 57-year-old grew Maike Metals International Ltd. through the rough-and-tumble rush for commodities in the early 2000s, to become a key conduit between China’s industrial heartlands and global merchants like Glencore Plc.
Now Maike is suffering a liquidity crisis, and He’s empire is under threat. The ripple effects could be felt across the world: the company handles a million tons a year — a quarter of China’s refined copper imports — making it the largest player in the most important global trade route for the metal, and a major trader on the London Metal Exchange.
With his wide network of contacts giving enviable insight into China’s factories and building sites, He has been a poster child for China’s commodity-fueled boom over two decades — making a fortune from its ravenous demand for raw materials and then plunging it into the red-hot property market.
But this year, Beijing’s restrictive Covid Zero policies have hit both the property market and the copper price hard. After months of rumours, He admitted publicly last month that Maike had asked for help to resolve liquidity issues.
He said the problems are temporary and affected only a small part of his business, but his trading counterparties and creditors are being cautious. Some Chinese domestic traders have suspended new deals, while one of the company’s longest-standing lenders, ICBC Standard Bank Plc, was concerned enough that it moved some copper out of China that had been backing its lending to Maike.
Even if it can secure support from the government and state banks, industry executives say Maike may struggle to maintain its dominant role in the Chinese copper market.
Much as He’s rise was a microcosm of China’s economic boom, his current woes may mark a turning point for commodity markets: the end of an era in which Chinese demand could only go up.
“In some ways, Maike’s story is the story of modern China,” said David Lilley, who started dealing with Maike in the 1990s, first as a trader at MG Plc and later as co-founder of trading house and hedge fund Red Kite. “He has skillfully ridden the dynamics of the Chinese economy, but no one was prepared for the Covid lockdowns.”
This account of He’s rise to the pinnacle of China’s commodities industry is based on interviews with business associates, rivals and bankers, many of whom asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation.
A spokesperson for Maike declined to comment on this story, but said in response to earlier questions from Bloomberg on Sept. 7: “Our company has been deeply involved in the development of the commodity industry for nearly 30 years. It had maintained a steady development as witnessed by everyone. It will soon resume normal operations and continue to contribute to the development of the industry and the local economy.”
Copper boom
Born in 1964 in the Chinese province of Shaanxi, He’s first encounter with copper came when he got a job procuring industrial materials for a local firm. As a young man, he was paid to guard cargoes of copper in trains crisscrossing China — which could be a cold job on freezing winter nights.
In 1993, He and several friends established Maike in the western city of Xi’an, known as the capital of China’s first emperor and the location of the iconic Terracotta Army statues. The group took out a loan of 50,000 yuan (about $7,200) to buy and sell mechanical and electrical products. But He’s early encounter with copper had made an impact, and they quickly moved their focus to scrap metal, copper wire and refined copper.
With a personable nature, a broad grin and a light-hearted sense of humor, He was a natural commodity trader whose charisma would help him build a wide network of friends and business contacts.
As China’s economy liberalized, He used his connections to make Maike a middleman between big international traders and China’s burgeoning throng of copper consumers.
In the space of 15 years, China would go from consuming a tenth of the world’s copper supply to 50%, triggering a supercycle of skyrocketing prices for the metal which is used in electrical wires in everything from power cables to air-conditioning units.
Commodities casino
This was a wild era when, for many, China’s commodity markets were little more than a casino. Groups of traders would team up to bet together, launching ambushes against their opponents on the other side of the market. The bravest players would be nicknamed after the martial art masters of popular novels.
While many traders came and went in these go-go years, He persisted.
“We did a huge amount of business together over twenty years,” said Lilley. “There were times when the Chinese metals trade was a real wild west and he stood out for his honorableness. He would always make good on his word.”
He also had another characteristic essential for a successful commodity trader: an appetite for risk.
His big break came in the early days of the supercycle. In May 2005, China’s metals industry gathered in Shanghai for the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s annual conference. Copper prices had risen sharply, and most of the producers, fabricators and traders in the audience thought they would soon fall. Even China’s mighty State Reserve Bureau had made bearish bets.
They were shocked to hear Barclays analyst Ingrid Sternby predict that copper would hit new highs as Chinese demand exceeded supply. But she was soon proved right, as prices more than doubled in the next 12 months. The SRB’s losses became a national scandal, and most Chinese traders missed the opportunity to cash in on the gains.
He was not among them. Paying close attention to demand from his network of Chinese consumers, he had built up a bullish position and profited handsomely from the global price surge.
It was a pattern he would successfully repeat many times over the years. His preferred strategy involved selling options — on the downside, at the price his Chinese customers were likely to see as a buying opportunity, and on the upside, at a price they were likely to consider too dear.
While he enjoyed some of the trappings of success, people who have known He for many years say he remained down-to-earth even as his net worth swelled to levels that probably made him, at his peak, a dollar billionaire.
In Shanghai, he would regularly have lunch at a restaurant serving cuisine from Xi’an, where he’d eat his favorite steamed cold noodles and fried leek dumplings for 50 yuan ($7).
Financial flows
The evolution of He’s business mirrored the changes taking place in the Chinese business world. Although he had started simply as a distributor of physical copper, he soon pioneered the growing interconnections between the commodities business and financial markets in China.
As Maike grew to become the country’s top copper importer, He began to utilize the constant flow of metal to raise financing. He could ask for prepayments from his end customers, and also borrow against the increasingly large volumes of copper he was shipping and holding in warehouses. Over the years, the connection between copper and cash became well established, and the ebbs and flows of China’s credit cycle became a key driver of the global market.
He would use money raised from his copper business to speculate on the exchange or, increasingly, invest in China’s booming real estate sector. Starting in around 2011, He built hotels and business centers, and even his own warehouses in Shanghai’s bonded zone.
“In some ways Maike’s story is the story of modern China”
As the state became an ever more dominant force in China’s business world, He turned his focus to investing in his hometown, Xi’an, backing projects under Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
This year, however, He’s empire started to wobble.
The city of Xi’an faced a month-long lockdown in December and January, and further restrictions in April and July as Covid re-emerged, hurting He’s property investments. His hotels sat almost empty for months, and some commercial tenants simply stopped paying rent.
Maike was one of a number of companies that plunged their fortunes into the property market in the boom years, said Dong Hao, head of the Chaos Ternary Research Institute. “After the sharp turnaround in real estate last year, such companies have encountered various difficulties,” he said.
Nickel squeeze
The Chinese economy’s wider malaise has also caused the copper price to slump, while at the same time Maike suffered the result of growing caution among banks toward the commodity sector in China. Trust in the industry was hurt by the historic nickel squeeze in March, as well as several scandals involving missing aluminum and copper ores.
In recent weeks, Maike began experiencing difficulties paying for its copper purchases, and several international companies — including BHP Group and Chile’s Codelco — paused sales to Maike and diverted cargoes.
The future is uncertain. He met a group of Chinese banks in late August at a crunch meeting organized by the local Shaanxi government. Maike later said that the banks had agreed to support it, including by offering extensions on existing loans.
But its trading activity has largely ground to a halt as other traders grow increasingly nervous about dealing with the company. And, in the wake of Maike’s troubles, some of the biggest banks in the sector are pulling back from financing metals in China more generally.
Within China, He’s woes elicit mixed emotions. Many mourn his situation as tragic for the Chinese commodities industry and emblematic of an economy increasingly dominated by state companies.
Others would be less sad to see the end of a business model that elevated copper to a financial asset and sometimes caused import margins to diverge from physical fundamentals.
“For many years, traders like Maike have been quite important in the importation of copper into China — they’ve bought very consistently to keep the flow of financing going,” said Simon Collins, the former head of metals trading at Trafigura Group and the CEO of digital trading platform TradeCloud. “With the property market like it is, I think the music could be stopping.”
(By Alfred Cang and Jack Farchy, with assistance from Winnie Zhu)
Mongolia ready for expansion of digital learning www.montsame.mn
On September 17, Mongolia hosted a session on ‘Reimagining Learning through Digital Transformation and Partnership’ within the framework of the TES convened by the UNSG during the 77th UN General Assembly.
The session raised much interest and was attended by executives from UNICEF, UNESCO, GOOGLE, GGIA, Microsoft, World Bank Group, EdTech Hub, and government representatives from the education sectors of Indonesia, Finland, and Singapore.
It was recognized that Mongolia is one of the countries that has shifted the gears to digital learning during the pandemic and is still working hard towards a better digital education system. This progress has shown that Mongolia is ready.
Lessons learnt from Indonesia, Finland, and Singapore and advice shared by international partners reinforced Mongolia’s vision and policy on digital learning. Many partners agreed to continue providing substantial support to digital learning in Mongolia through different means. Many partners have also agreed to visit Mongolia.
Discussions were held between UNICEF and GIGA to come up with innovative options for better supporting Mongolia in its progress on expanding the digital learning opportunities in the country.
UNICEF Mongolia
Prime Minister attends state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II www.montsame.mn
Prime Minister of Mongolia L.Oyun-Erdene attended the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in London on September 19, 2022, and offered condolences to the Royal Family and British People on behalf of the people of Mongolia.
Following his attendance at the state funeral, the Prime Minister signed the book of condolence at Lancaster Castle.
More than 500 Heads of State and Government, other foreign dignitaries, and members of Royal Families attended the State Funeral.
The United Kingdom was the first western country to establish diplomatic relations with Mongolia and has continually supported Mongolia’s transition to democracy.
Photo by: Rory Arnold
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