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Events
Events
| Name | organizer | Where |
|---|---|---|
| MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Sluggish Growth, Soaring Inflation to Persist in Mongolia in 2022 www.adb.org
ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA (21 September 2022) — Economic growth is forecast to remain low in Mongolia this year before picking up next year, assuming external risks are mitigated and border issues with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) resolved in 2023, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Meanwhile, inflation and the current account deficit are expected to outpace earlier projections.
Growth is forecast at 1.7% this year, down from an April projection of 2.3%, while the forecast for next year has been lowered to 4.9% from 5.6%, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Update, released today. This is due to prolonged border restrictions, deterioration of purchasing power under persistently high inflation, higher borrowing costs, a likely decline in the availability of credit, and a continuation of monetary tightening.
“Despite initial signs of recovery, the economy’s near-term growth prospects remain uneven,” said ADB Country Director for Mongolia Pavit Ramachandran. “A combination of persistently high inflation and a large current account deficit creates a pressing need for achieving better macroeconomic balance while focusing on medium-term structural reforms.”
The prolonged restrictions at the border with the PRC as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have disrupted trade, reduced essential imports, increased import prices, escalated price increases, and dampened industrial sectors and business sentiment. Contraction continued in the mining, manufacturing, construction, and transportation sectors, and recovery in industry is likely to take time. Still, the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions since February 2022 has revived domestic demand, assisted by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.
Inflation escalated and remained above the central bank’s target for the past 16 consecutive months. The surge in inflation will continue, mainly due to persistent supply disruptions, rising transportation costs, exchange rate depreciation and its pass-through impacts, and higher prices for food, fuel, and imported durables. The current account deficit will exceed ADO 2022 forecasts in both years, mainly because of higher imports, lower growth expected in the PRC, and continued downward corrections to exporting commodity prices.
Downside risks to the outlook are any new restrictions at major trade portals with the PRC, a decline in mineral commodity prices, negative spillovers from the global slowdown, aggressive monetary tightening, or rising balance sheet risks in the domestic financial sector.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.
Mongolia, Australia Celebrate 50 Years of Diplomatic Relations www.thediplomat.com
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Australia. In recognition of this milestone, the two governments have organized a diverse range of activities celebrating the past and present and looking forward to a successful next 50 years.
To commemorate the anniversary, Canberra lit up two historic buildings, the National Carillion and Old Parliament House, with the colors of the Mongolian national flag.
In Ulaanbaatar, the foreign minister of Mongolia, Battsetseg Batmunkh, received Australian Ambassador to Mongolia Katie Smith. During the meeting, the two sides reiterated the past 50 years of diplomatic relations and ongoing bilateral projects such as education, economy, mining, agriculture, and defense.
The Australian embassy in Mongolia also hosted a celebratory evening with parliamentarians, foreign ministry officials, and civil society members. Our relationship is flourishing, and we look forward to the next 50 years!” Smith declared.
Mongolia and Australia established diplomatic relations on September 15, 1972. Per long-time leader Tsedenbal Yumjaag’s foreign policy agenda, Mongolia looked to establish diplomatic relations with countries beyond Russia and China, Mongolia’s only two direct neighbors. Australia, although geographically distant from Mongolia, is similar in its landscape and rich natural resources, and Mongolia had much to learn from its experience.
Soon after Mongolia’s democratic revolution in 1991, the two nations exchanged high-level visits. This was an attempt for the Australian government to test the waters. In the early to mid-1990s, Mongolia’s foreign policy was intertwined with the country’s need for economic aid and political reform. By boosting bilateral relations with developed democratic countries, Mongolia was gaining knowledge it could apply to its constitutional reform and new market-based economy. From Australia, Mongolia was particularly interested in the management of natural resources and sought technical assistance in activating its mining sector.
In 1997, Mongolia’s first democratically elected president, Ochirbat Punsalmaa, became the first president to visit Australia. However, despite Ochirbat’s effort to activate what Tsedenbal had started 25 years prior, Canberra did not open an embassy in Mongolia until 2015. Instead, the Australian embassies in Moscow, Beijing, and Seoul served as a liaison at different times.
For its part, in 2007, Mongolia recognized Australia as a “third neighbor.” A year later, Mongolia opened its embassy in Canberra, and Jambaldorj Tserendorj was appointed ambassador.
The embassy’s opening was credited to the auspicious efforts of previous high-level visits and bilateral dialogues. Official visits to Australia by Foreign Minister Gombosuren Tserenpil in 1993, President Ochirbat in 1997, and speaker of the parliament Nyamdorj Tsend in 2007 played a significant role in encouraging Canberra to recognize Ulaanbaatar as a possible partner. Sukhbaatar Batbold became the first Mongolian prime minister to visit Australia in 2011.
Canberra also began to send officials in the 1990s. In 1994, Governor-General Bill Hayden visited Mongolia along with Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. Between 2005 and 2007, senior Australian officials, including Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, visited Mongolia searching for business partnerships in tourism and resource management.
In 2011, Austrade was established in Ulaanbaatar, which later became the Australian Consulate Center. In December 2015, then Foreign Minister Julia Bishop announced the opening of the Australian Embassy in Ulaanbaatar, and John Langtry became the first resident ambassador. Before being appointed, Langtry oversaw the North Asia division at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).
Langtry told The Diplomat, “One of the main reasons why the Australian government decided to establish an Embassy in Ulaanbaatar in 2015 was because we realized Mongolia was a democratic partner with a shared commitment to an open economy located in a very challenging geopolitical environment.”
He noted that the same logic still holds true today. “The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine certainly has not made Mongolia’s position any easier,” Langtry said. “However, I know that Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen its relations with ‘third neighbors’ in these difficult times and well understood and welcomed in Australia.”
Australia, even before opening its embassy in Ulaanbaatar, had prioritized enhancing Mongolia’s human capital by increasing access to higher education. Considering Mongolia’s young population – the median age is 28 – education has been an essential aspect of Australia-Mongolia bilateral relations. The Mongolia-Australia Society, known as the Mozzies, has become a bridge for education, cultural exchange, and people-to-people connections.
According to DFAT, since 1994, “over 600 Australian scholarships have been provided to Mongolian to study in Australia.” As a result, the number of Mongolian students studying in Australian institutions has increased significantly. As of 2019, just before the pandemic hit and shut down many study abroad opportunities, the Embassy of Mongolia in Australia estimated that over 6,000 Mongolians were studying in Australia.
In recognition of Australia’s contribution to Mongolia’s education sector, the state secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia, Ankhbayar Nyamdorj, visited the Australian National University (ANU) in March. ANU has been an important building block for enhancing Mongolia’s human capital and has become a popular destination for Mongolian students.
Beyond education links, since 2003, the Australia-initiated Direct Aid Program has assisted over 100 organizations and so far, implemented over 130 projects in Mongolia aimed at reducing poverty, health and youth issues. The 2022-2023 Direct Aid Program selected 13 organizations in Mongolia to receive grants, such as the National Center for Maternal and Child Health, National Institute for Disaster Management, National Center Against Violence, Little Scientists NGO, and others.
In 2015, Mongolia and Australia established a joint initiative known as the Australia-Mongolia Extractives Program (AMEP) to assist Mongolia in the development of its resource-led economy. Between 2015-2019, the joint program completed its initial phase, which covered improving Mongolia’s investment environment by providing incentives for governments, civil society, and the private sector. The AMEP is still active today and will host “Mongolia Mining 2022: International Mining and Oil Expo” from September 21-23 in Ulaanbaatar.
Beyond the cooperation in the education and mining sector, Mongolia and Australia have participated in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Sierra Leone. Australia is also active in Mongolia’s annual Khaan Quest international peacekeeping exercise.
The past 50 years have shown the possibilities and the challenges of Australia-Mongolia relations. There were many difficulties and certain geopolitical nuances that prevented Canberra from recognizing Mongolia as a potential partner for the bulk of that time. In retrospect, Mongolia’s recognition of Australia as a “third neighbor” was the ultimate push for Canberra to see it through a different lens.
“I am pleased in this connection to see the pace of high-level visits picking up, particularly with Deputy [Prime] Minister Amarsaikhan recently in Canberra to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations,” Langtry told The Diplomat.
Mongolia's central bank raises benchmark interest rate to 12 pct www.xinhuanet.com
Mongolia's central bank on Tuesday decided to raise its benchmark interest rate to 12 percent.
"After taking into account the current and future state of the economy and financial markets, and external and internal uncertainties or risks to the economy, we decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 10 percent to 12 percent to stabilize the rate of inflation in the medium term and maintain the relative return of the Mongolian national currency Tugrik," Byadran Lkhagvasuren, governor of the Bank of Mongolia, told a press conference.
The annual inflation rate in Mongolia reached 14.4 percent in August, while in the capital Ulan Bator, home to over half of the country's population of 3.4 million, it reached 14.8 percent.
Parabellum Resources has diamond drill spinning at advanced Khotgor REE Project in mineral-rich southern Mongolia www.proactiveinvestors.com.au
Parabellum Resources Ltd (ASX:PBL) has the diamond drill spinning for a 2,000-metre program at the Khotgor Rare Earth Elements (REE) Project in resource-rich southern Mongolia, northwest of the world-class Oyu Tolgoi mine.
The metallurgical drilling along with a bulk sampling program will target the higher-grade resource areas to obtain a 50-tonne bulk metallurgical sample for a JORC definitive feasibility study (DFS) at the project.
This study is scheduled to commence in the June quarter of 2023, subject to completing a scoping study in the first quarter of 2023.
Potential to be major NdPr supplier
Khotgor is touted as one of the world’s largest undeveloped rare earth deposits with the potential to be a major supplier of high-value NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) and Parabellum aims to demonstrate this with aggressive exploration and pre-development programs.
NdPr is facing strong and growing demand as it is a vital material needed to magnets and therefore, future wind power generation.
Shares higher
Parabellum non-executive chairman Mark Hohnen said: “We are delighted that the technical team at Temarise has been able to deploy the first of two drill rigs, drill crews and geologists to site in order to commence the 2,000-metre drill program without delay.
"The project has clear objectives to target higher-grade areas within the initial 20-year pit design shell and deliver the required bulk sample for the JORC feasibility study; both being critical steps to delivering our objectives set out in the work programs for the remainder of 2022.”
Investors have welcomed the start of drilling, driving the share price up by as much as 4.69% to $0.335.
Metallurgical drilling
PBL has initially planned about 14 holes of metallurgical infill drilling for a total drill program of 2,000 metres, mainly within the initial 10 years of the open pit design plan.
These holes will be between 150 metres and 200 metres in depth, with an average depth of 170 metres. Large PQ diameter core holes will be drilled to maximise core sample recovery.
The 2,000-metre drill program, which is being managed by the Temarise technical team established in Mongolia, is scheduled to be completed within 10 weeks.
Additionally, Parabellum will take ore samples from a number of surface trenches to be used for further geotechnical test-work.
Preparing bulk sample
In total, approximately 50 tonnes of sample will be collected for use in the DFS with core samples to be used for a variety of comminution, variability and geotechnical test-work.
Sample preparation will be undertaken in Ulaanbaatar before the end of the year. The bulk sample will then be shipped to ALS Labs based in Perth, Western Australia, and is scheduled to arrive in the June quarter of 2023.
Core will also be combined with ore from the surface trenching to produce a bulk flotation concentrate to optimise the metallurgical flow sheet being developed for the scoping study stage.
The flotation concentrate will subsequently be used to optimise the hydrometallurgical flowsheet being designed to produce an NdPr saleable product.
Looking south over the Khotgor leases.
Parabellum has previously entered into an agreement with Temarise Limited (UK) that holds the exclusive option to acquire 80% of Khotgor REE Project.
The company also holds a 100% interest in four projects in a highly prospective region in New South Wales, Australia, offering exposure to copper and gold.
Why the current oil boom for Arab states may be their last www.cnn.com
Abu Dhabi (CNN)The oil boom brought about by the Ukraine war has made energy-rich Middle Eastern countries extraordinarily wealthy once again. But experts warn that it may be the last such upswing.
The energy price spike triggered by the war lifted the Gulf states out of an almost decade-long economic slump that saw them cut spending and go into budget deficits as their economies shrank. Russia's invasion of its neighbor shot the value of crude to an eight-year high.
Gulf states went through oil booms in the 1970s and 1980s, and then another in the early 2000s. But changing attitudes toward energy consumption mean that such cycles may no longer be tenable, and Gulf states need to be prepared for it, experts say.
"This is certainly the beginning of the end of oil wealth at this sustained level," said Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy.
Western states have been working towards renewable energy transitions, which today seem more pressing than ever as the Ukraine war drastically disrupts Europe's key supply channels for oil and natural gas.
"Today's boom is different in that it is more than an oil crisis," said Young. "It is a major shift in the structure of how we meet global energy needs."
Middle Eastern energy exporters are expected to reap $1.3 trillion in hydrocarbon revenues over four years as a consequence of the current boom, the International Monetary Fund has said. Experts have warned them against wasting it, arguing that Gulf states need to shield themselves from fluctuations in oil prices by using the windfall to diversify their economies away from their dependence on oil riches.
During previous oil booms, Gulf states were seen as squandering their wealth on wasteful and inefficient investments, building sprees and buying weapons, as well as handouts to citizens. Those booms were followed by downturns when oil prices cooled as the nations continued to rely on hydrocarbons for their revenues.
"Oftentimes building projects are started and then abandoned when the oil money runs out," said Ellen Wald, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. "Because they have so much to spend there often isn't much oversight and there has traditionally been a lot of corruption."
According to Omar Al-Ubaydli, director of research at the Bahrain-based Derasat think tank, there has also traditionally been a heavy emphasis on increases in public sector hiring and in public sector salaries through bonuses or raises.
A May 2022 report by the World Bank stressed that the wealth obtained by Gulf countries post-pandemic and after the Ukraine war must be invested in the bloc's "economic and environment transition."
The focus on investing in the energy transition is crucial as many parts of the world hasten their renewable energy transition, said the report.
Four ways the Ukraine war has impacted the Middle East
Four ways the Ukraine war has impacted the Middle East
Gulf states appear to be working on diversifying. Since the last oil boom that ended in 2014, four of the six Gulf states have introduced value-added tax and the UAE has gone further by starting a corporate income levy. None of the Gulf states have an income tax. Saudi Arabia has been investing in non-oil sectors like tourism, but experts cast doubt over the ability of that sector to offset oil revenues. The kingdom makes roughly a billion dollars a day from oil at current prices.
Gulf states have pushed back against the notion that hydrocarbons can be phased out as a primary source of energy as environmentally conscious nations move to alternative sources. Oil is and will continue to be crucial to the global economy, they say.
Critics counter that it is in the oil exporters' interest to push that narrative, but oil states have pointed to the rise in crude demand that coincided with the removal of Covid-19 restrictions around the world.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said last week that oil demand is set to grow sharply next year, pushed by a resumption of work in China and of global travel.
The United Arab Emirates, one of the world's top oil exporters, has warned that too fast a transition away from hydrocarbons could cause an economic crisis.
"Policies aimed at divesting from hydrocarbons too soon, without adequate viable alternatives, are self-defeating," wrote Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE's special envoy for climate change, in an August opinion piece. "They will undermine energy security, erode economic stability, and leave less income available to invest in the energy transition," he added.
Young of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy said that even if economies move away from oil as a source of energy, oil-based products like petrochemicals and materials for plastics would continue to be in demand.
Still, experts say that Gulf states realize that even as oil continues to be in demand, such upswings in its price may not happen again at the same degree or frequency.
"There is a tangible sense that this is a transient boom, and that it might represent the last sustained rise in oil prices," said Al-Ubaydli. "The governments and people alike feel that this is an opportunity that must be exploited to the full, rather than frittered away through myopic decision-making."
Does China need more Russian gas via the Power-of-Siberia 2 pipeline? www.hellenicshippingnews.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with his counterparts from China and Mongolia on Thursday, where they discussed a major new infrastructure project, Power-of-Siberia 2, to deliver gas to China via Mongolia.
Russia proposed the route years ago but the plan has gained urgency, as Moscow looks to Beijing to replace Europe as its major gas customer.
Negotiations will be complex, however, not least because China is not expected to need additional gas supply until after 2030, industry experts said.
WHAT IS THE POWER OF SIBERIA 2 PIPELINE?
The proposed pipeline would bring gas from the huge Yamal peninsula reserves in west Siberia – the main source of gas supply to Europe – to China, the world’s top energy consumer and growing gas consumer.
The idea gained impetus when the first pipes of the currently operational Power of Siberia pipeline were laid in Russia’s eastern Yakutia region in 2014.
That pipeline runs for 3,000 kilometers (1864.11 miles)through Siberia and into northeastern China’s Heilongjiang province.
The new route would cut through the eastern half of Mongolia, arriving into northern China’s Inner Mongolia region, not far from major population centers like Beijing, according to a map drawn up by Russia’s Gazprom.
Gazprom began a feasibility study on the project in 2020 and is aiming to start delivering gas by 2030.
The 2,600-km pipeline could carry 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year, Gazprom says, slightly less than the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which links Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
WHAT DOES MONGOLIA SAY?
Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh said on Thursday that he supports the construction of oil and gas pipelines from Russia to China via Mongolia, adding that its technical and economic justification should be studied.
Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai told the Financial Times in July that he expected Russia to begin construction on the pipeline within two years.
Luvsannamsrai also said the final route of the line through Mongolia was not yet decided, according to the newspaper.
DOES CHINA NEED MORE RUSSIAN GAS?
Russia’s Gazprom already supplies gas to China through the first Power of Siberia pipeline under a 30-year, $400 billion deal, which was launched at the end of 2019.
Expected to supply 16 billion cubic meters of gas this year, it will deliver increasing volumes before reaching full capacity of 38 bcm by 2025.
In February, Beijing also agreed to buy gas from Russia’s Far East island of Sakhalin, which will be transported via a new pipeline across the Japan Sea to northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, reaching up to 10 bcm a year around 2026.
Meanwhile, China is also negotiating a new pipeline – Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline D – to source 25 bcm of gas annually for 30 years from Turkmenistan via Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
On top of piped gas, the country also has long-term contracts with Qatar, the United States and global oil majors for 42 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be shipped in on tankers, with most of the supplies starting in the next five years.
“Fundamentally we see little support for Power of Siberia 2 to materialize before 2030 as China has secured enough supplies by then,” said a Beijing-based industry expert who declined to be named due to company policy.
“It will be a tremendously complex negotiation which could take years, as it carries huge political, commercial and financial risks,” said the expert.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Aizhu Chen in Singapore; Writing by Dominique Patton; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)
D. Munkhzul wins World Youth Chess Championships www.montsame.mn
During the ‘World Youth U14, U16, U18 Championships 2022’ held in Mamaia, Romania on September 05-17, Mongolia’s FIDE Master D.Munkhzul became a world champion twice in the U15-U16 tournament by winning undefeated, scoring 8.5 points from 11 games.
D. Munkhzul won her first world championship trophy 8 years ago by taking first place in the under-8 age category at the Junior World Chess Championship held in Durban, South Africa, in 2014.
International achievements of the two-time world champion D. Munkhzul, who qualified for an International Master title:
-In 2014 and 2022 World Youth U14, U16, U18 Champion
-In 2017 and 2018 World School Chess Champion
-In 2014 and 2016 Asian Youth Chess Champion
-In 2015 and 2019 Runner up in World School Chess Championship
-In 2022, she participated in the 44th World Chess Olympiad as a stand-by player of the Mongolian National Chess team and successfully played.
With her achievements at the World Youth U14, U16, U18 Championships 2022’, FIDE Master D. Munkhzul has qualified for a WIM title.
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