1 MONGOLIA MARKS CENTENNIAL WITH A NEW COURSE FOR CHANGE WWW.EASTASIAFORUM.ORG PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      2 E-MART OPENS FIFTH STORE IN ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA, TARGETING K-FOOD CRAZE WWW.BIZ.CHOSUN.COM PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      3 JAPAN AND MONGOLIA FORGE HISTORIC DEFENSE PACT UNDER THIRD NEIGHBOR STRATEGY WWW.ARMYRECOGNITION.COM  PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      4 CENTRAL BANK LOWERS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.2% WWW.UBPOST.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      5 L. OYUN-ERDENE: EVERY CITIZEN WILL RECEIVE 350,000 MNT IN DIVIDENDS WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      6 THE BILL TO ELIMINATE THE QUOTA FOR FOREIGN WORKERS IN MONGOLIA HAS BEEN SUBMITTED WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      7 THE SECOND NATIONAL ONCOLOGY CENTER TO BE CONSTRUCTED IN ULAANBAATAR WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/20      8 GREEN BOND ISSUED FOR WASTE RECYCLING WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      9 BAGANUUR 50 MW BATTERY STORAGE POWER STATION SUPPLIES ENERGY TO CENTRAL SYSTEM WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      10 THE PENSION AMOUNT INCREASED BY SIX PERCENT WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2024/12/19      КОКС ХИМИЙН ҮЙЛДВЭРИЙН БҮТЭЭН БАЙГУУЛАЛТЫГ ИРЭХ ОНЫ ХОЁРДУГААР УЛИРАЛД ЭХЛҮҮЛНЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     "ЭРДЭНЭС ТАВАНТОЛГОЙ” ХК-ИЙН ХУВЬЦАА ЭЗЭМШИГЧ ИРГЭН БҮРД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГ ӨНӨӨДӨР ОЛГОНО WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГИЙН ОРЛОГО 2040 ОНД 38 ИХ НАЯДАД ХҮРЭХ ТӨСӨӨЛӨЛ ГАРСАН WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ЭРДЭНЭС ОЮУ ТОЛГОЙ” ХХК-ИАС ХЭРЛЭН ТООНО ТӨСЛИЙГ ӨМНӨГОВЬ АЙМАГТ ТАНИЛЦУУЛЛАА WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     Л.ОЮУН-ЭРДЭНЭ: ХУРИМТЛАЛЫН САНГААС НЭГ ИРГЭНД 135 МЯНГАН ТӨГРӨГИЙН ХАДГАЛАМЖ ҮҮСЛЭЭ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ENTRÉE RESOURCES” 2 ЖИЛ ГАРУЙ ҮРГЭЛЖИЛСЭН АРБИТРЫН МАРГААНД ЯЛАЛТ БАЙГУУЛАВ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     “ORANO MINING”-ИЙН ГЭРЭЭ БОЛОН ГАШУУНСУХАЙТ-ГАНЦМОД БООМТЫН ТӨСЛИЙН АСУУДЛААР ЗАСГИЙН ГАЗАР ХУРАЛДАЖ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/20     АЖИЛЧДЫН САРЫН ГОЛЧ ЦАЛИН III УЛИРЛЫН БАЙДЛААР ₮2 САЯ ОРЧИМ БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     PROGRESSIVE EQUITY RESEARCH: 2025 ОН “PETRO MATAD” КОМПАНИД ЭЭЛТЭЙ БАЙХААР БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19     2026 ОНЫГ ДУУСТАЛ ГАДААД АЖИЛТНЫ ТОО, ХУВЬ ХЭМЖЭЭГ ХЯЗГААРЛАХГҮЙ БАЙХ ХУУЛИЙН ТӨСӨЛ ӨРГӨН МЭДҮҮЛЭВ WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2024/12/19    

Events

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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Mongolia to host Group B matches of the AFC Asian Cup qualification www.news.mn

The third round of the AFC Asian Cup qualification will take place from June 8 to 14 in six centralised venues. A total of 24 teams will participate in this round to battle it out for the 11 slots available in the 2023 Asian Cup.
The teams have been equally divided into six groups and they will play single round-robin matches. The group winners and the five best runners-up across all groups will qualify for the main event.
Group A is made up of Jordan, Kuwait, Indonesia and Nepal. Meanwhile, all matches in Group B will be hosted by Mongolia. The hosts will be joined by Philippines, Palestine and Yemen.
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China spent over $6 billion on Russian energy imports in April www.bloomberg.com

China kept buying more energy from Russia, with purchases of oil, gas and coal jumping 75% in April to over $6 billion, even as domestic demand slowed due to a resurgent virus and the US and Europe moved away from purchases.
Imports of Russian liquefied natural gas surged 80% from a year earlier to 463,000 tons, according to Chinese customs data on Friday. That’s despite China’s total imports of the super-chilled fuel dropping by more than a third as lockdowns and other restrictions on industrial activity choked demand.
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Crude imports, meanwhile, rose 4% on the year to 6.55 million tons, with Russia again behind only Saudi Arabia as China’s main source of oil.
The surge in prices that accompanied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted the value of China’s purchases of mineral fuels, including coal, to $6.42 billion. It means that 72% of China’s total imports in April from its strategic partner were energy-related.
The volume figures for gas don’t include pipeline imports, which haven’t been reported since the start of the year, but the Power of Siberia link is a major conduit of the fuel to China.
Moreover, Beijing is in discussions with Moscow to replenish its strategic crude stockpiles with cheaper Russian oil, a sign that energy ties between the two are only likely to strengthen as Russia’s westward markets wither due to the war in Ukraine.
Other highlights of commodities trade between China and Russia in April:
Coal imports fell 14% on-year to 3.82 million tons as Covid restrictions, milder weather and elevated domestic output reduced demand for the thermal variety
But coking coal for the steel industry rose for a third month to 1.71 million tons, more than double last year’s level, after mills bought more on the prospect of enhanced government spending
Refined copper imports fell 39% to 18,871 tons
Refined nickel imports rose almost threefold to 1,738 tons
Aluminum imports rose almost half to 31,218 tons
Palladium imports were zero
Wheat imports dropped 81% to 2,990 tons
(By Ailing Tan, with assistance from Kathy Chen, Sarah Chen and Winnie Zhu)
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Unloved since Fukushima, uranium is hot again for miners www.mining.com

Uranium miners are racing to revive projects mothballed after the Fukushima disaster more than a decade ago, spurred by renewed demand for nuclear energy and a leap in yellowcake prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Spot prices for uranium have doubled from lows of $28 per pound last year to $64 in April, sparking the rush on projects set aside after a 2011 earthquake and tsunami crippled Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant.
“Things are moving very quickly in our industry, and we’re seeing countries and companies turn to nuclear with an appetite that I’m not sure I’ve ever seen in my four decades in this business,” Tim Gitzel, CEO of Canada’s Cameco, which mothballed four of its mines after Fukushima, said on a May 5 earnings call.
Uranium prices began to rise in mid-2021 as several countries seeking to limit climate change said they aimed to move back to nuclear power as a source of carbon-free energy.
A quest for secure energy supplies has added to the potential demand.
Unrest in January in Kazakhstan, which produces 45% of primary global uranium output, had already driven prices further when Moscow’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine spurred a 50% rally.
Russia accounts for 35% of global supply of enriched uranium.
Prices have retreated since a peak in April, but John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, which runs the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, told Reuters Moscow’s invasion had “shifted the energy markets dramatically”.
“Now the theme is about energy security, energy independence and trying to move away from Russian origin energy supply chains,” he said.
There are about 440 nuclear power plants around the world that require approximately 180 million pounds of uranium every year, according to the World Nuclear Association.
Uranium mines produce about 130 million pounds, a deficit that mining executives predict will widen even if idled capacity by major producers such as Cameco and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom comes back online.
The supply gap used to be filled by stockpiled material, much of which came from Russia.
Now, miners are dusting off feasibility studies for mothballed mines and reviving projects.
In Australia, uranium producers – including Paladin Energy Ltd which aims to restart its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia, idled over a decade ago – have raised close to A$400 million ($282.08 million) in share sales over the last six months to fund exploration and resuscitate mines on three continents.
“With all of the additional demand that’s coming from the new nuclear (plants), the thesis is that over a five or 10-year period, that additional demand will just dwarf those volumes coming back to market,” said Regal Funds Management analyst James Hood.
China plans to build 150 new reactors between 2020 and 2035 and Japan also aims to boost nuclear capacity as does South Korea.
In Europe, Britain has committed to build one new nuclear plant every year while France plans to build 14 new reactors and the European Union has proposed counting nuclear plants as a green investment.
Easier said than done?
Delivering the new reactors, however, will be a challenge as repeated delays and cost-overruns could be exacerbated by the supply chain problems following the pandemic and the additional disruption of the Ukraine war, making demand for uranium hard to predict.
Many environmental campaigners, especially in the West, also remain opposed to nuclear energy because of the waste it generates even though atomic power is emissions-free.
Advocates of nuclear energy say small modular reactors are a solution to the difficulty of bringing on new capacity.
Keith Bowes, managing director of Lotus Resources, which owns the idled Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, says modular reactors will be a major source of growth from 2028 onwards.
Others say the traditional obstacle of high cost is less of a problem given the sharpened focus on security of supply.
“No longer is price the determinant, it’s now security of supply,” Duncan Craib, managing director at Boss Resources told the Macquarie Australia conference on May 9.
Boss will make a final investment decision soon on developing the Honeymoon uranium mine in South Australia, aiming for first production 18 months after any go-ahead.
Sprott’s Ciampaglia said uranium could hit $100 per pound in the long run. Prices peaked around $140 per pound in 2007.
This year’s rally has taken them to levels last seen in 2011 in part as a result of Sprott’s activity in the market with its uranium funds growing from near zero last year to about $4 billion now.
Ciampaglia said Sprott’s buying is in response to investor demand: “The Trust provides investors with a vehicle to express their view on physical uranium.”
Smaller uranium developers also want to get involved, but will need prices of at least $60 a pound to ensure the economic viability of projects, industry watchers said.
Even then there would be risks. The restart of idled capacity from uranium giants could disproportionately hit smaller players while community opposition in some areas remains.
“No mine development or restart of an idled mine is easy or without challenges,” said Guy Keller, manager of Tribeca Investment Partners’ Nuclear Energy Opportunities Fund.
($1 = 1.4180 Australian dollars)
(By Praveen Menon and Sonali Paul; Editing by Barbara Lewis)
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Mongolia to exempt import tariffs for certain food products to ensure price stability www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia will exempt import tariffs for certain food products until the end of this year in order to ensure their supply and price stability, the government's press office said Wednesday.
"During its regular meeting on Wednesday, the government approved a list of certain food products such as sugar, vegetable oil and rice to be exempt from import tariffs," the press office said in a statement.
It is estimated that the exemption will help reduce the retail price of those products by 4 to 7 percent.
Consumer prices have been rising sharply in the landlocked Asian country due to the continued border restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
For example, the average retail price per kilogram of rice stood at 6,900 Mongolian Tugriks (about 2.1 U.S. dollars) at the end of the first quarter of this year, up 130 percent from the same period last year, according to the Confederation of Mongolian Trade Unions.
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Mongolia seeks early buyback of Samurai debt www.reuters.com

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Mongolia wants to buy back a yen-denominated bond early to manage forthcoming foreign debts and take advantage of a weak Japanese yen, Finance Minister Javkhalan Bold said on Thursday.
The 30-billion yen ($234 million) bond, issued by the Development Bank of Mongolia, matures on Dec. 25, 2023. Javkhlan said the bank had told the bond’s arrangers it was ready to buy back the debt now.
“Starting today and until the maturity of the bonds we will be always ready. Whoever wants to sell their bonds back to us, we will be ready to buy back,” he told Reuters in a video call from his parliamentary office in the capital, Ulaanbaatar.
Repayments will be funded by collecting bad debts owed to the Development Bank, owned by the government, a process already underway and expected to deliver at least 500 billion Mongolian tugrik ($160 million) by year’s end, he said.
Early repayment was also intended to show investors that the country had enough foreign cash to meet debts, Javkhlan said, as well as manage the flow of hard currency out of the economy at a delicate time, with large debts due late in 2023.
“The Japanese yen has depreciated quite substantially,” he added. “Building on this momentum we would like to seize an opportunity to repurchase Samurai bonds early,” he said, using the name for yen debts issued by foreign companies in Japan.
The yen is down about 10% on the U.S. dollar this year. Mongolia’s commodity-driven economy, meanwhile, is growing.
But border closures with China and sanctions on Russian banks used to process export receipts are hampering its ability to cash in on rising commodity prices, just as food import costs have surged and squeezed limited currency reserves.
Fitch Ratings reaffirmed a Mongolian sovereign rating of B on Wednesday but noted that reserves of $3.6 billion, against debts of over $1 billion due in 2023-24, presented a vulnerability.
Javkhlan said Mongolia had informed the bond’s arrangers, Nomura Securities and Daiwa Securities, about plans for early repayment two weeks ago but had not heard back.
Nomura declined to comment and Daiwa did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The bond’s arranger, Mizuho Bank, declined to comment, as did the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, which guarantees the bonds.
($1 = 128.3700 yen)
$1 = 3,100 togrog Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Bradley Perrett
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How ‘weak sustainability’ helps miners contribute to the UN development goals www.mining.com

In a recent article in the journal Earth Science Systems and Society, an international research team describes how current mining practices could be improved and the sourcing and management of metals better aligned with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs).
According to the researchers, the mining sector can offset some of its negative impacts through compensation measures. High sustainability standards should be applied in the sourcing of raw materials and recycling systems should be significantly strengthened in order to promote an efficient and market-based circular economy, they say.
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A more sustainable extractive industry would provide a cornerstone for the fulfilment of the SDGs, for example, by supplying key raw materials for building infrastructure (SDG 9) and the production of wind and solar technologies (SDG 7).
It is clear, however, that mining will never be able to achieve all the goals of sustainable development, such as eliminating the use and consumption of non-renewable raw materials. In light of this, the authors recommend that changes should be guided by the concept of “weak sustainability”, which focuses on achieving realistic targets. This approach allows for the use of non-renewable resources if this contributes to other sustainability goals such as renewable energy generation.
In the authors’ view, the first step toward this path is improving governance. They believe this will require the participation of diverse stakeholders at different levels, from individual companies to international policymakers.
Based on their analysis, the researchers recommend the following concrete steps:
Planning and management at the organizational level: Companies and investors are responsible for incorporating sustainability indicators into their decision-making and controlling activities. Sustainability must become an integral part of the accounting system;
Regional and national regulations: All mining activities are embedded in the context of regional and national regulations. These should be guided by the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, economic, and social. In particular, regulations should offer incentives – such as tax reductions for excellent sustainability performance or penalties for violations of sustainability goals – this can offset the financial burden for investments in sustainable operations. Regional regulations should ensure the active and effective participation of local communities and stakeholders in shaping operating conditions;
Voluntary agreements and certification systems in the industries: Benchmarks for the ecological, economic, and social sustainability of mining operations should be agreed at the international level. Clear provisions for measurement, monitoring, and compliance management are needed. This could be facilitated by national mining associations but also by large standardization organizations such as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO);
Global governance structures: Regional and national regulations should be harmonized worldwide. A global agreement of this kind could still include mechanisms to reflect specific regional circumstances. A new secretariat or unit could be created at the United Nations to govern mining worldwide. The more sustainability evolves into a key driver for change, the more the global community needs a forum in which rules for mining can be developed, negotiated, and implemented; and
Financial instruments (green investment funds): The financial sector can support the shift toward sustainability by incorporating sustainability indicators into decision-making about loans or when rating agencies rank companies’ performance.
In the authors’ view, however, to achieve such commitments a certain level of compromise must exist.
“The regulation of mining activities will always entail trade-offs, for example, between opportunities such as facilitating the energy transition, innovative battery design and e-mobility on the one side and risks for ecosystems and communities on the other side,” first author Ortwin Renn said in a media statement.
“It is important to find the right balance that ensures shared benefits, supports sustainable development as a whole and reduces the risks.”
For Renn and his colleagues, creating a sustainable mining sector will require policies that put environmental, economic, and social sustainability at the top of the agenda.
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Turquoise Hill to receive debt funding from Rio Tinto as it evaluates $2.7bn offer www.reuters.com

Canada’s Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd said on Wednesday Rio Tinto will provide it interim debt funding of up to $400 million while it evaluates the Anglo-Australian miner’s $2.7 billion bid for the company.
Rio Tinto in March had proposed to buy out the 49% of Turquoise Hill (TRQ) it does not already own for about $2.7 billion in cash, paving the way for direct ownership of the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mining project in Mongolia.
However, the offer has seen opposition from major Turquoise Hill shareholders, including activist investor Pentwater Capital Management, who said the offer was too low.
Last year, Pentwater Capital had filed a class action in New York against Rio Tinto for damages, alleging the miner concealed problems that plagued the long-delayed, over-budgeted Oyu Tolgoi mine for months.
Rio confirmed the revised arrangements, and said in its statement it would “enable TRQ to fund the ongoing development of the Oyu Tolgoi”.
Rio said it had also agreed to extend the date by which TRQ can conduct an initial liquidity offering of at least $650 million to Dec. 31 from Aug. 31.
Turquoise Hill is a single-asset company holding 66% of Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits, 550 km (342 miles) south of Mongolia’s capital Ulaanbaatar. The government of Mongolia owns the remaining 34%.
Rio and Turquoise Hill have had long-running disagreements over funding for the $6.93 billion expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi mine as costs and timelines overran, but they reached a deal in April.
Rio in January settled a long-running dispute with Mongolia over the economic benefits of the project, waiving $2.4 billion in debt owed to it by the Mongolian government.
(By Ruhi Soni and Praveen Menon; Editing by Maju Samuel and Lincoln Feast)
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A new museum opens in the Gobi desert in Mongolia www.news.mn

A new museum was opened in the Gobi desert in Mongolia. The Gobi desert is land of dinosaurs and it is the home for camel breeders rich with wildlife and vegetation.
This well-appointed museum houses plenty of stuffed Gobi animals, and a collection of seashells and marine fossils (South Gobi was once beneath the sea). There is also an impressive skeleton of a Protoceratops and a dinosaur egg. Upstairs, look out for the tools and antiques used by a Mongol soldier in the imperial days.
Located in Dalanzadgad city of South Gobi province of Mongolia, the museum is now open through week from 09:00 a.m. to 06:00 p.m.
The museum admission costs MNT 10,000 either locals or foreigners; but free for children.
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Fitch Affirms Mongolia at 'B'; Outlook Stable www.fitchratings.com

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 18 May 2022: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Mongolia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Structural Strengths, External Vulnerabilities: Mongolia's ratings are underpinned by governance indicators and per capita income that are strong relative to 'B' peers, and favourable medium-term growth prospects. The ratings are constrained by the country's high reliance on external funding, narrow economic base predominately focused on commodity exports to China, and recurring bouts of political volatility.
Near-Term Growth Remains Subdued: Fitch forecasts growth will remain subdued this year at 1.2%, following 1.4% in 2021, despite elevated commodity prices and the re-opening of international borders after achieving high Covid-19 vaccination rates. However, coal exports and other merchandise trade have been severely disrupted by ongoing closures of the border with China, Mongolia's largest trading partner, under the former's "dynamic zero Covid" policy.
Fitch expects border disruptions to ease in 2023, although further downside risk to growth could emerge if trade disruptions with China are more prolonged. Global economic spill-overs from the war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks from import disruptions with Russia and China are leading to inflationary pressures, which will weigh on real incomes and private consumption.
Favourable Medium-Term Growth Prospects: Fitch projects GDP growth will accelerate to 6.3% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024, as headwinds from trade disruptions and the war in Ukraine wane, and China's demand for Mongolia's key commodity exports remains reasonably buoyant. Mongolia also has the potential to harness its generous natural resource endowments, as the underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) mine becomes operational, and improved cross-border infrastructure connectivity unleashes more economic benefits for the country.
Progress in OT Development: The recent agreement over the strategic OT mine, in which the government holds 34%, indicates easing of strained relations between the government and foreign investors over project delays, cost overruns and taxation. We believe the agreement bodes well for the continued development of the underground phase, with potential positive spill-overs to Mongolia's export receipts, fiscal accounts and foreign-investor sentiment. However, recurring bouts of political volatility over resource nationalism weigh on the rating.
Sizable Budget Deficits: Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen to 4.4% of GDP in 2022 (B median: 4.7%), from an estimated 3.0% in 2021, as we assume that revenue growth will be lower than the government's baseline expectations. We forecast the budget deficit to narrow to 3.7% in 2023 on stronger revenue collection as Mongolia's economic recovery gains traction. Part of the pandemic-related social welfare spending, including an increase in child money allowance (an average of 3.1% of GDP for 2021-2022), will be maintained.
Quite High Public Debt: We forecast general government debt to increase by about 4.3pp to 65.3% of GDP by end-2022, broadly in line with the projected current 'B' median of 65.9%. About 95% of government debt is denominated in foreign currency, exposing it to shocks. Our baseline expects Mongolia's favourable medium-term growth prospects and its nascent pre-pandemic record of keeping fiscal outturns in line with approved budgets will put public-debt dynamics on a modest downward trajectory.
Vulnerable to External Shocks: Fitch expects tighter global financing conditions and geopolitical spill-overs to exacerbate Mongolia's weaker external finance profile. We project Mongolia's current account deficit in 2022 to widen to 16.3% of GDP and its net external debt burden to be large at 167% of GDP. Dependence on external marketable debt raises its vulnerability to shifts in international investor sentiment. However, Mongolia's access to external financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors provided an important cushion throughout the pandemic.
Low Reserves, Looming External Maturities: We project foreign-currency reserves at USD3.6 billion by end-2022, equivalent to about 3.2x current external payments. Foreign reserves remain low in view of the around USD1.1 billion in public external debt maturing in 2023-2024, excluding contingent liabilities under the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM).
The DBM faces significant asset-quality pressures and has a combined USD733 million (4.1% of projected 2023 GDP) in external bonds maturing in late 2023, including a JPY30 billion (1.3% of GDP) Samurai bond carrying a government guarantee. The government has instructed the DBM to explore potential early payment of its outstanding Samurai bond obligations, which if successful, would reduce contingency liability risks for the government.
Rising Inflationary Pressure: The Bank of Mongolia (BOM) raised the benchmark policy rate by a cumulative 300bp in 1Q22 to 9% in response to geopolitical spill-overs, trade disruptions and high inflation. Fitch forecasts headline inflation to average 14.2% in 2022 before slowing to 10.8% in 2023, still well above the BOM's target of 4%-8%.
Banks' Asset-Quality Risks: Banks have provided soft loans to support employment, businesses and housing programmes under the MNT10 trillion economic stimulus package, which also fuelled inflationary pressure, in Fitch's view. Strong loan growth should support banks' profitability, but it could also mask NPL recognition and understate asset-quality issues, especially from high inflation pressure.
ESG - Governance: Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights and '5' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Mongolia has a medium WBGI ranking at the 50th percentile, reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
- External Finances: Heightened external stress, which may be evident from restricted access to external-financing sources or a marked decline in foreign reserves, potentially as a result of prolonged border disruptions with China.
- Public Finances: Failure to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the government debt/GDP ratio.
- Structural Features: Political instability sufficient to significantly disrupt strategic mining projects or FDI inflows.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
- External Finances: The accumulation of larger foreign-currency reserve buffers and the implementation of a debt-management strategy that lowers refinancing risks and improves external debt sustainability.
- Macroeconomic: A resumption of stronger economic growth and export trends without the emergence of imbalances, and the maintenance of a favourable business environment conducive to robust FDI inflows.
- Public Finances: Narrowing of the budget deficit consistent with a declining government debt/GDP ratio.
SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Mongolia a score equivalent to a rating of 'B' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.
In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee decided not to adopt the score indicated by the SRM as the starting point for its analysis because the SRM output has migrated to 'B', but in our view this is potentially a temporary deterioration. Consequently, the committee decided to adopt 'B+' as the starting point for its analysis.
Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the adopted SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows:
- Structural Features: -1 notch, to reflect recurring bouts of political volatility around issues of resource nationalism, which could negatively impact the business environment and increases the risk of economic shocks.
- Macroeconomic: +1 notch, to reflect Mongolia's strong medium-term growth prospects, which are not reflected in the current SRM output.
- External Finances: -1 notch, to reflect high vulnerability to external shocks, given the country's narrow economic base, which is exposed to commodity prices and developments in China, moderate level of foreign-currency reserves, substantial amortisations on external marketable debt, and high net external debt ratios.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.
BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO
International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for Mongolia, as for all sovereigns. As Mongolia has record of more than 20 years without a restructuring of public debt and captured in our SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.
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Abt To Help Modernize Mongolia’s Electricity Sector Through $11.9M, 5-Year Contract With USAID www.abtassociates.com

Rockville, Md. – Mongolia relies heavily on coal reserves for power and heat production throughout the country, while maintaining a highly subsidized tariff system—all of which have led to social, economic, and health crises. The most obvious ramifications can be seen in Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar, where air pollutants are measured at more than 40 times the amount deemed safe by the World Health Organization.
To address these challenges, Abt Associates will lead USAID’s Mongolia Energy Governance (MEG) Activity, which will advance electricity sector and district heating modernization by building the country’s capacity to mobilize investment for renewable energy, introduce competitive procurement, deploy advanced energy technology, and enact policy reforms. These advances will enable the country’s private sector to drive future economic growth in the energy sector while improving social development and better health due to lower pollution.
Under the five-year, $11.9 million contract (with $2 million in grants), Abt will implement the project with a local subcontractor, the Mongolian Renewables Industries Association. Abt will also partner with key members of our consortium for USAID’s Energy II IDIQ: the Stockholm and Environmental Institute, Vitelli and Associates, and Arizona State University.
Activities will include guiding energy investments, building Mongolia’s capacity for energy policy development and for monitoring energy efficiency, and ensuring 40 percent of participants are women. Overall goals for MEG include mobilizing investment for clean energy projects and bringing on additional generation capacity.
“Modernizing Mongolia's energy sector is imperative to tackle social, economic, and health crises by improving governance, attracting investment, and boosting government revenues,” said Abt Senior Vice President, International Development, Eric J. Reading. “We at Abt are thrilled to take on the challenge, in partnership with USAID, the government of Mongolia, and Mongolian NGOs.”
About Abt Associates
Abt Associates is a global consulting and research firm that combines data and bold thinking to improve the quality of people's lives. We partner with clients and communities to advance equity and innovation—from creating scalable digital solutions and combatting infectious disease, to mitigating climate change and evaluating programs for measurable social impact. https://www.abtassociates.com
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