Mongolia reports 51 new COVID-19 infections www.akipress.com

Mongolia's health ministry confirmed 51 new COVID-19 infections on April 20.

45 new cases were recorded in Ulaanbaatar, 6 cases were detected in the regions.

No new related deaths have been recorded in Mongolia since March 10, and the country's COVID-19 death toll remains at 2,108.

Mongolia's economy projected to grow by 2.5% in 2022 www.akipress.com

After a strong initial rebound, Mongolia’s economic recovery stalled in the last three quarters of 2021, and the growth outlook for 2022 is expected to remain modest. Following a contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent growth in 2021, the World Bank’s latest Mongolia Economic Update projects that the economy will grow by 2.5 percent in 2022, reflecting lingering border frictions with China and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Despite continued policy support and higher commodity prices, economic growth is dragged down by protracted trade disruptions and logistical bottlenecks amid border closures. Headline inflation rose sharply by 14.4 percent (y/y) by March 2022, weighing down real incomes and household consumption. The war in Ukraine amplified external risks resulting in increased demand for foreign exchange, and further erosion of international reserves, says the report.

The report notes that main drivers of growth included recovery in the service sector and a short-lived rebound of the mining sector in Q1 2021. On the demand side, domestic investment was the key driver of growth, underpinned by a substantial buildup of mineral inventories. However, private consumption contracted by 4 percent in 2021, despite the government’s stimulus program. The report also notes that disruptions in bilateral trade with China in 2021 hampered mining exports and the import of vital inputs for domestic production.

Over the medium-term, the report projects economic growth to accelerate to above 6 percent in 2023-2024, as the underground mining phase of Mongolia’s largest copper mine Oyu Tolgoi (OT) is expected to become operational during the second half of 2023.

Policy space is increasingly constrained after two years of expansionary fiscal policies, with persistent fiscal imbalances threatening long-term sustainability, says the report. Public spending increased in 2021, driven mainly by generous but poorly targeted welfare programs. Meanwhile, public debt, including the central bank’s swap agreement, increased sharply to about 92 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by large COVID-related fiscal measures to support the economy.

The headline budget deficit nonetheless narrowed to 3.1 percent of GDP – with a one-off tax arrears collection (2.3 percent of GDP) and the financing of the Child Money Program through the Future Heritage Fund, which weakened the fiscal framework and long-term sustainability.

“Mongolia is currently facing strong headwinds, including an economic slowdown, high inflation, widening fiscal and external imbalances and high debt burden,” said Andrei Mikhnev, World Bank Country Manager for Mongolia. “Mounting instability and heightened risks call for adjustments in macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy adjustments to return to a credible inflation anchor, strengthening the central bank’s operational independence, fiscal consolidation to stabilize debt, and better targeting of welfare programs. In addition, Mongolia also needs to implement structural reforms to help lay the foundation for more diversified and hence more resilient growth in the medium term.”

The report highlights that monetary policy needs to return to a credible inflation anchor, raise interest rates further, curtail quasi-fiscal activity, and allow the exchange rate to absorb adverse external shocks. Fiscal consolidation is necessary to stabilize debt and ensure external and public debt sustainability. Importantly, fiscal measures that better target the poor can help contain fiscal imbalances and sustain support to the most vulnerable households. The report also notes the need for structural reforms including measures to reduce trade and transport costs, facilitating foreign investment, and promoting domestic entrepreneurship that would help strengthen growth in the medium term.

The HU performs at Coachella-2022 www.montsame.mn

The Coachella Music and Arts Festival is taking place in Indio, California on April 15-24.

On the second day of the Coachella Festival, the Mongolian folk rock band - The HU performed their song ‘Shikhikhutag’ at the stage of one of the world’s most famous music festivals.

After two years of COVID-19 cancellations, the Coachella Music and Arts festival is back, bringing together artists including Justin Bieber, Billie Eilish, Harry Styles, and Snoop Dogg.

The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival is an annual and arts festival held at the Empire Polo Club in Indio, California.  The event features musical artists from many genres of music, including rock, pop, indie, hip hop and electronic dance music. 

Parliamentary Visit to Mongolia www.daniel4shrewsbury.co.uk

As the PMs trade envoy to Mongolia, I have just completed a four-day visit to this country.  We had the opportunity of visiting the single largest foreign investment in the country which is the British/Australian copper mining investment run by Rio Tinto.  This is the third largest copper mine in the world.  We were taken 1.3k underground to inspect the vast honeycomb network of tunnels where excavation is taking place to mine copper and gold.  This is an investment of over $12b and a hugely strategic important investment.

Mongolia a country sandwiched between Russia and China inevitably finds herself in a precarious situation dependent on energy and trade from Moscow and Beijing.  They view the UK as an extremely important third-party neighbour and want to engage with us as much as possible to make them less dependent on the two giants that straddle their borders.

One of the companies I met was a local Mongolian dealer selling JCB machinery.  I had the huge privilege of meeting the owners and their team and asked them how do they compete with cheaper Chinese products.  They replied unequivocally it is the strong British brand, the quality of British manufacturing and the strength of the service of products that has allowed them over a very short period to capture a significant portion of the market and they are expanding rapidly.

As we have left the EU and are this year going to join the new Indo-Pacific CPTPP Trade agreement, recalibrating British global exports to the Far East countries like Mongolia will become increasingly important.   British companies should be encouraged to look to far Eastern markets like Mongolia, who will be critical for our prosperity agenda

During my visit I had the honour of meeting many British companies who had joined me on this trade delegation to promote high quality British manufacturing goods and services.  In addition to the mining sector, they included agriculture, medicine, health care and in financial services.  We must help Mongolia to be less dependent and less vulnerable to overdependency from Russia and China and I am truly humbled by the response we received from our Mongolian friends and partners.

Mongolia: Reforms Crucial to Navigate Stronger Headwinds www.worldbank.org

After a strong initial rebound, Mongolia’s economic recovery stalled in the last three quarters of 2021, and the growth outlook for 2022 is expected to remain modest. Following a contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent growth in 2021, the World Bank’s latest Mongolia Economic Update projects that the economy will grow by 2.5 percent in 2022, reflecting lingering border frictions with China and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Despite continued policy support and higher commodity prices, economic growth is dragged down by protracted trade disruptions and logistical bottlenecks amid border closures. Headline inflation rose sharply by 14.4 percent (y/y) by March 2022, weighing down real incomes and household consumption. The war in Ukraine amplified external risks resulting in increased demand for foreign exchange, and further erosion of international reserves, says the report.

The report notes that main drivers of growth included recovery in the service sector and a short-lived rebound of the mining sector in Q1 2021. On the demand side, domestic investment was the key driver of growth, underpinned by a substantial buildup of mineral inventories. However, private consumption contracted by 4 percent in 2021, despite the government’s stimulus program. The report also notes that disruptions in bilateral trade with China in 2021 hampered mining exports and the import of vital inputs for domestic production.

Over the medium-term, the report projects economic growth to accelerate to above 6 percent in 2023-2024, as the underground mining phase of Mongolia’s largest copper mine Oyu Tolgoi (OT) is expected to become operational during the second half of 2023.

Policy space is increasingly constrained after two years of expansionary fiscal policies, with persistent fiscal imbalances threatening long-term sustainability, says the report. Public spending increased in 2021, driven mainly by generous but poorly targeted welfare programs. Meanwhile, public debt, including the central bank’s swap agreement, increased sharply to about 92 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by large COVID-related fiscal measures to support the economy.

The headline budget deficit nonetheless narrowed to 3.1 percent of GDP – with a one-off tax arrears collection (2.3 percent of GDP) and the financing of the Child Money Program through the Future Heritage Fund, which weakened the fiscal framework and long-term sustainability.

“Mongolia is currently facing strong headwinds, including an economic slowdown, high inflation, widening fiscal and external imbalances and high debt burden,” said Andrei Mikhnev, World Bank Country Manager for Mongolia. “Mounting instability and heightened risks call for adjustments in macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy adjustments to return to a credible inflation anchor, strengthening the central bank’s operational independence, fiscal consolidation to stabilize debt, and better targeting of welfare programs. In addition, Mongolia also needs to implement structural reforms to help lay the foundation for more diversified and hence more resilient growth in the medium term.”

The report highlights that monetary policy needs to return to a credible inflation anchor, raise interest rates further, curtail quasi-fiscal activity, and allow the exchange rate to absorb adverse external shocks. Fiscal consolidation is necessary to stabilize debt and ensure external and public debt sustainability. Importantly, fiscal measures that better target the poor can help contain fiscal imbalances and sustain support to the most vulnerable households. The report also notes the need for structural reforms including measures to reduce trade and transport costs, facilitating foreign investment, and promoting domestic entrepreneurship that would help strengthen growth in the medium term.

For more information, please visit: www.worldbank.org/mongolia

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China Zijin invests in Xanadu to ink copper-gold resources in Mongolia www.reuters.com

Cooperation agreement for project to construct a crude oil pipeline signed www.montsame.mn

Mongolia sees sharp rises of fuel price www.news.mn

Mongolia coal railings up 2.36% YoY in Mar; iron ore shipment down 0.56% www.sxcoal.com

Mongolia's coal railings came in at 946,000 tonnes in March, up 2.36% year on year but down 0.56% month on month, showed data from the National Statistical Office of Mongolia.

In the month, railway shipment of iron ore was 271,000 tonnes, slumping 62.37% from a year ago, and down 1.22% from February.

Coal railings totaled 3.06 million tonnes during the first three months of 2022, up 8.37% year on year, and iron ore shipment was 584,500 tonnes, down 70.12%.

(Writing by Rebecca Liu  Editing by Tammy Yang)

Promoting Post-Election Accountability in Mongolia, Women Civil Society Leaders Call for Political Accountability Together www.iri.org

Following International Women’s Month, the International Republican Institute (IRI) is highlighting our work across the world to elevate the role of women in politics and civil society. In Mongolia, women civic leaders have transformed the culture through advocacy initiatives and calls for collaborative public policy and political accountability.  

Civil society engagement around relevant and pressing policy issues is a key part of making democracy accessible worldwide. Women play an outsized role in civil society, making up about 80% of the civil society workforce in Mongolia. However, despite a legacy of robust political participation by women due to higher voter turnout rates and comparatively strong rankings on gender equality indices, women’s priority issues such as political participation remain largely overlooked in the policymaking process. 

In any free and open society, civil society is a bridge between the government and citizens, yet in Mongolia that promise is not being realized. According to IRI’s latest nationwide survey, an overwhelming majority of Mongolians believe that political participation is important, but most (72.5%) believe that ordinary citizens are unlikely to have any influence. Compared to those (29% and 23%) who respectively believe social media and protests can influence decision-making, very few (8%) think that civil society can. To improve this dismal reality, women-led civil society organizations (CSOs) are championing a more civically engaged and accountable political culture through groundbreaking initiatives.  

Under the USAID-funded Strengthening Women and Youth Engagement in Electoral and Political Processes (SWYEEPPM) program, IRI, MONFEMNET National Network and Youth Policy Watch brought together more than 300 representatives from civil society, local government, and parliament to foster a stronger culture of deliberation. Through this, elected officials have expressed support for civil society-led initiatives and committed to collaboration in the policymaking process. For instance, Member of Parliament Ts. Munkhtsetseg and MONFEMNET co-hosted a multi-stakeholder dialogue on the Law on Political Parties to include more diverse voices in the discussion. 

In addition, other State Great Hural (SGH) Women’s Caucus members engaged to work with CSOs on women’s priority issues. Member of Parliament D. Sarangerel, head of the Women’s Caucus, underlined the importance of having diverse voices during the legislative development process and is pushing for a higher gender quota in elected offices in a bill that will be deliberated on soon in Parliament. Through such collaborations, IRI has established functional linkages between CSOs and elected officials to collaborate on public policy development around priority issues that affect women, increase their participation in decision-making, and call for political accountability.  

Empowering civil society and promoting the political participation of women is not only imperative for sustaining commitment to democratic values but will also serve an invaluable role in supporting democratic governments to deliver on public demands for transparency and accountability.  

This year marks IRI’s 30th anniversary of continuous programming in Mongolia. Through innovative programming such as SWYEEPPM, IRI continues to build upon its legacy as a reliable partner, dedicated to supporting Mongolia’s democratic journey.