Mongolia will exempt import tariffs for certain food products until the end of this year in order to ensure their supply and price stability, the government's press office said Wednesday.

"During its regular meeting on Wednesday, the government approved a list of certain food products such as sugar, vegetable oil and rice to be exempt from import tariffs," the press office said in a statement.

It is estimated that the exemption will help reduce the retail price of those products by 4 to 7 percent.

Consumer prices have been rising sharply in the landlocked Asian country due to the continued border restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

For example, the average retail price per kilogram of rice stood at 6,900 Mongolian Tugriks (about 2.1 U.S. dollars) at the end of the first quarter of this year, up 130 percent from the same period last year, according to the Confederation of Mongolian Trade Unions.

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Mongolia wants to buy back a yen-denominated bond early to manage forthcoming foreign debts and take advantage of a weak Japanese yen, Finance Minister Javkhalan Bold said on Thursday.

The 30-billion yen ($234 million) bond, issued by the Development Bank of Mongolia, matures on Dec. 25, 2023. Javkhlan said the bank had told the bond’s arrangers it was ready to buy back the debt now.

“Starting today and until the maturity of the bonds we will be always ready. Whoever wants to sell their bonds back to us, we will be ready to buy back,” he told Reuters in a video call from his parliamentary office in the capital, Ulaanbaatar.

Repayments will be funded by collecting bad debts owed to the Development Bank, owned by the government, a process already underway and expected to deliver at least 500 billion Mongolian tugrik ($160 million) by year’s end, he said.

Early repayment was also intended to show investors that the country had enough foreign cash to meet debts, Javkhlan said, as well as manage the flow of hard currency out of the economy at a delicate time, with large debts due late in 2023.

“The Japanese yen has depreciated quite substantially,” he added. “Building on this momentum we would like to seize an opportunity to repurchase Samurai bonds early,” he said, using the name for yen debts issued by foreign companies in Japan.

The yen is down about 10% on the U.S. dollar this year. Mongolia’s commodity-driven economy, meanwhile, is growing.

But border closures with China and sanctions on Russian banks used to process export receipts are hampering its ability to cash in on rising commodity prices, just as food import costs have surged and squeezed limited currency reserves.

Fitch Ratings reaffirmed a Mongolian sovereign rating of B on Wednesday but noted that reserves of $3.6 billion, against debts of over $1 billion due in 2023-24, presented a vulnerability.

Javkhlan said Mongolia had informed the bond’s arrangers, Nomura Securities and Daiwa Securities, about plans for early repayment two weeks ago but had not heard back.

Nomura declined to comment and Daiwa did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The bond’s arranger, Mizuho Bank, declined to comment, as did the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, which guarantees the bonds.

($1 = 128.3700 yen)

$1 = 3,100 togrog Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Bradley Perrett

In a recent article in the journal Earth Science Systems and Society, an international research team describes how current mining practices could be improved and the sourcing and management of metals better aligned with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs).

According to the researchers, the mining sector can offset some of its negative impacts through compensation measures. High sustainability standards should be applied in the sourcing of raw materials and recycling systems should be significantly strengthened in order to promote an efficient and market-based circular economy, they say.

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A more sustainable extractive industry would provide a cornerstone for the fulfilment of the SDGs, for example, by supplying key raw materials for building infrastructure (SDG 9) and the production of wind and solar technologies (SDG 7).

It is clear, however, that mining will never be able to achieve all the goals of sustainable development, such as eliminating the use and consumption of non-renewable raw materials. In light of this, the authors recommend that changes should be guided by the concept of “weak sustainability”, which focuses on achieving realistic targets. This approach allows for the use of non-renewable resources if this contributes to other sustainability goals such as renewable energy generation.

In the authors’ view, the first step toward this path is improving governance. They believe this will require the participation of diverse stakeholders at different levels, from individual companies to international policymakers.

Based on their analysis, the researchers recommend the following concrete steps:

Planning and management at the organizational level: Companies and investors are responsible for incorporating sustainability indicators into their decision-making and controlling activities. Sustainability must become an integral part of the accounting system;

Regional and national regulations: All mining activities are embedded in the context of regional and national regulations. These should be guided by the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, economic, and social. In particular, regulations should offer incentives – such as tax reductions for excellent sustainability performance or penalties for violations of sustainability goals – this can offset the financial burden for investments in sustainable operations. Regional regulations should ensure the active and effective participation of local communities and stakeholders in shaping operating conditions;

Voluntary agreements and certification systems in the industries: Benchmarks for the ecological, economic, and social sustainability of mining operations should be agreed at the international level. Clear provisions for measurement, monitoring, and compliance management are needed. This could be facilitated by national mining associations but also by large standardization organizations such as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO);

Global governance structures: Regional and national regulations should be harmonized worldwide. A global agreement of this kind could still include mechanisms to reflect specific regional circumstances. A new secretariat or unit could be created at the United Nations to govern mining worldwide. The more sustainability evolves into a key driver for change, the more the global community needs a forum in which rules for mining can be developed, negotiated, and implemented; and

Financial instruments (green investment funds): The financial sector can support the shift toward sustainability by incorporating sustainability indicators into decision-making about loans or when rating agencies rank companies’ performance.

In the authors’ view, however, to achieve such commitments a certain level of compromise must exist.

“The regulation of mining activities will always entail trade-offs, for example, between opportunities such as facilitating the energy transition, innovative battery design and e-mobility on the one side and risks for ecosystems and communities on the other side,” first author Ortwin Renn said in a media statement.

“It is important to find the right balance that ensures shared benefits, supports sustainable development as a whole and reduces the risks.”

For Renn and his colleagues, creating a sustainable mining sector will require policies that put environmental, economic, and social sustainability at the top of the agenda.

Canada’s Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd said on Wednesday Rio Tinto will provide it interim debt funding of up to $400 million while it evaluates the Anglo-Australian miner’s $2.7 billion bid for the company.

Rio Tinto in March had proposed to buy out the 49% of Turquoise Hill (TRQ) it does not already own for about $2.7 billion in cash, paving the way for direct ownership of the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mining project in Mongolia.

However, the offer has seen opposition from major Turquoise Hill shareholders, including activist investor Pentwater Capital Management, who said the offer was too low.

Last year, Pentwater Capital had filed a class action in New York against Rio Tinto for damages, alleging the miner concealed problems that plagued the long-delayed, over-budgeted Oyu Tolgoi mine for months.

Rio confirmed the revised arrangements, and said in its statement it would “enable TRQ to fund the ongoing development of the Oyu Tolgoi”.

Rio said it had also agreed to extend the date by which TRQ can conduct an initial liquidity offering of at least $650 million to Dec. 31 from Aug. 31.

Turquoise Hill is a single-asset company holding 66% of Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits, 550 km (342 miles) south of Mongolia’s capital Ulaanbaatar. The government of Mongolia owns the remaining 34%.

Rio and Turquoise Hill have had long-running disagreements over funding for the $6.93 billion expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi mine as costs and timelines overran, but they reached a deal in April.

Rio in January settled a long-running dispute with Mongolia over the economic benefits of the project, waiving $2.4 billion in debt owed to it by the Mongolian government.

(By Ruhi Soni and Praveen Menon; Editing by Maju Samuel and Lincoln Feast)

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 18 May 2022: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Mongolia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Structural Strengths, External Vulnerabilities: Mongolia's ratings are underpinned by governance indicators and per capita income that are strong relative to 'B' peers, and favourable medium-term growth prospects. The ratings are constrained by the country's high reliance on external funding, narrow economic base predominately focused on commodity exports to China, and recurring bouts of political volatility.

Near-Term Growth Remains Subdued: Fitch forecasts growth will remain subdued this year at 1.2%, following 1.4% in 2021, despite elevated commodity prices and the re-opening of international borders after achieving high Covid-19 vaccination rates. However, coal exports and other merchandise trade have been severely disrupted by ongoing closures of the border with China, Mongolia's largest trading partner, under the former's "dynamic zero Covid" policy.

Fitch expects border disruptions to ease in 2023, although further downside risk to growth could emerge if trade disruptions with China are more prolonged. Global economic spill-overs from the war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks from import disruptions with Russia and China are leading to inflationary pressures, which will weigh on real incomes and private consumption.

Favourable Medium-Term Growth Prospects: Fitch projects GDP growth will accelerate to 6.3% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024, as headwinds from trade disruptions and the war in Ukraine wane, and China's demand for Mongolia's key commodity exports remains reasonably buoyant. Mongolia also has the potential to harness its generous natural resource endowments, as the underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) mine becomes operational, and improved cross-border infrastructure connectivity unleashes more economic benefits for the country.

Progress in OT Development: The recent agreement over the strategic OT mine, in which the government holds 34%, indicates easing of strained relations between the government and foreign investors over project delays, cost overruns and taxation. We believe the agreement bodes well for the continued development of the underground phase, with potential positive spill-overs to Mongolia's export receipts, fiscal accounts and foreign-investor sentiment. However, recurring bouts of political volatility over resource nationalism weigh on the rating.

Sizable Budget Deficits: Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen to 4.4% of GDP in 2022 (B median: 4.7%), from an estimated 3.0% in 2021, as we assume that revenue growth will be lower than the government's baseline expectations. We forecast the budget deficit to narrow to 3.7% in 2023 on stronger revenue collection as Mongolia's economic recovery gains traction. Part of the pandemic-related social welfare spending, including an increase in child money allowance (an average of 3.1% of GDP for 2021-2022), will be maintained.

Quite High Public Debt: We forecast general government debt to increase by about 4.3pp to 65.3% of GDP by end-2022, broadly in line with the projected current 'B' median of 65.9%. About 95% of government debt is denominated in foreign currency, exposing it to shocks. Our baseline expects Mongolia's favourable medium-term growth prospects and its nascent pre-pandemic record of keeping fiscal outturns in line with approved budgets will put public-debt dynamics on a modest downward trajectory.

Vulnerable to External Shocks: Fitch expects tighter global financing conditions and geopolitical spill-overs to exacerbate Mongolia's weaker external finance profile. We project Mongolia's current account deficit in 2022 to widen to 16.3% of GDP and its net external debt burden to be large at 167% of GDP. Dependence on external marketable debt raises its vulnerability to shifts in international investor sentiment. However, Mongolia's access to external financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors provided an important cushion throughout the pandemic.

Low Reserves, Looming External Maturities: We project foreign-currency reserves at USD3.6 billion by end-2022, equivalent to about 3.2x current external payments. Foreign reserves remain low in view of the around USD1.1 billion in public external debt maturing in 2023-2024, excluding contingent liabilities under the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM).

The DBM faces significant asset-quality pressures and has a combined USD733 million (4.1% of projected 2023 GDP) in external bonds maturing in late 2023, including a JPY30 billion (1.3% of GDP) Samurai bond carrying a government guarantee. The government has instructed the DBM to explore potential early payment of its outstanding Samurai bond obligations, which if successful, would reduce contingency liability risks for the government.

Rising Inflationary Pressure: The Bank of Mongolia (BOM) raised the benchmark policy rate by a cumulative 300bp in 1Q22 to 9% in response to geopolitical spill-overs, trade disruptions and high inflation. Fitch forecasts headline inflation to average 14.2% in 2022 before slowing to 10.8% in 2023, still well above the BOM's target of 4%-8%.

Banks' Asset-Quality Risks: Banks have provided soft loans to support employment, businesses and housing programmes under the MNT10 trillion economic stimulus package, which also fuelled inflationary pressure, in Fitch's view. Strong loan growth should support banks' profitability, but it could also mask NPL recognition and understate asset-quality issues, especially from high inflation pressure.

ESG - Governance: Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights and '5' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Mongolia has a medium WBGI ranking at the 50th percentile, reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

- External Finances: Heightened external stress, which may be evident from restricted access to external-financing sources or a marked decline in foreign reserves, potentially as a result of prolonged border disruptions with China.

- Public Finances: Failure to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the government debt/GDP ratio.

- Structural Features: Political instability sufficient to significantly disrupt strategic mining projects or FDI inflows.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

- External Finances: The accumulation of larger foreign-currency reserve buffers and the implementation of a debt-management strategy that lowers refinancing risks and improves external debt sustainability.

- Macroeconomic: A resumption of stronger economic growth and export trends without the emergence of imbalances, and the maintenance of a favourable business environment conducive to robust FDI inflows.

- Public Finances: Narrowing of the budget deficit consistent with a declining government debt/GDP ratio.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Mongolia a score equivalent to a rating of 'B' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.

In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee decided not to adopt the score indicated by the SRM as the starting point for its analysis because the SRM output has migrated to 'B', but in our view this is potentially a temporary deterioration. Consequently, the committee decided to adopt 'B+' as the starting point for its analysis.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the adopted SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows:

- Structural Features: -1 notch, to reflect recurring bouts of political volatility around issues of resource nationalism, which could negatively impact the business environment and increases the risk of economic shocks.

- Macroeconomic: +1 notch, to reflect Mongolia's strong medium-term growth prospects, which are not reflected in the current SRM output.

- External Finances: -1 notch, to reflect high vulnerability to external shocks, given the country's narrow economic base, which is exposed to commodity prices and developments in China, moderate level of foreign-currency reserves, substantial amortisations on external marketable debt, and high net external debt ratios.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As Mongolia has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Mongolia has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Mongolia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for Mongolia, as for all sovereigns. As Mongolia has record of more than 20 years without a restructuring of public debt and captured in our SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.

Rockville, Md. – Mongolia relies heavily on coal reserves for power and heat production throughout the country, while maintaining a highly subsidized tariff system—all of which have led to social, economic, and health crises. The most obvious ramifications can be seen in Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar, where air pollutants are measured at more than 40 times the amount deemed safe by the World Health Organization.

To address these challenges, Abt Associates will lead USAID’s Mongolia Energy Governance (MEG) Activity, which will advance electricity sector and district heating modernization by building the country’s capacity to mobilize investment for renewable energy, introduce competitive procurement, deploy advanced energy technology, and enact policy reforms. These advances will enable the country’s private sector to drive future economic growth in the energy sector while improving social development and better health due to lower pollution.

Under the five-year, $11.9 million contract (with $2 million in grants), Abt will implement the project with a local subcontractor, the Mongolian Renewables Industries Association. Abt will also partner with key members of our consortium for USAID’s Energy II IDIQ: the Stockholm and Environmental Institute, Vitelli and Associates, and Arizona State University.

Activities will include guiding energy investments, building Mongolia’s capacity for energy policy development and for monitoring energy efficiency, and ensuring 40 percent of participants are women. Overall goals for MEG include mobilizing investment for clean energy projects and bringing on additional generation capacity.

“Modernizing Mongolia's energy sector is imperative to tackle social, economic, and health crises by improving governance, attracting investment, and boosting government revenues,” said Abt Senior Vice President, International Development, Eric J. Reading. “We at Abt are thrilled to take on the challenge, in partnership with USAID, the government of Mongolia, and Mongolian NGOs.”

About Abt Associates

Abt Associates is a global consulting and research firm that combines data and bold thinking to improve the quality of people's lives. We partner with clients and communities to advance equity and innovation—from creating scalable digital solutions and combatting infectious disease, to mitigating climate change and evaluating programs for measurable social impact. https://www.abtassociates.com

President of Mongolia U.Khurelsukh became acquainted with the operations of ‘Max Agro’ LLC, which is based in Mandal soum of Selenge aimag.

In 2014, ‘Max’ Group and ‘Suu’ JSC imported 300 head of Holstein Friesian dairy cattle from the Slovak Republic, and established ‘Max Agro’ Intensive Livestock Farm.

‘Max Agro’ LLC annually receives about MNT 20 billion worth of milk from 2,500 suppliers and herders, supplying it to ‘Suu’ JSC. The company aims to further expand its activities by increasing the head of cattle from 500 to 1000. It also plans to bring the number of cooperatives established to 10 this year in order to support more herders in working together and putting their livestock animals into economic circulation.

“The sector needs to be supported comprehensively through measures such as creating the conditions for purchasing irrigation systems and farming equipment at discounted prices. Only 50 percent of the current consumption of milk in our country is supplied domestically. By establishing 30 modern farms equipped with advanced technology and about 9000 Holstein Friesian cattle, it will become possible to fully supply domestic demands, and begin exports from 2026,” said M.Bolod, Executive Director of ‘Suu’ JSC.

At its regular meeting today on May 18, the Cabinet approved a list of imported sugar, vegetable oil, and rice to be exempt from customs duty, and tasked Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry Z.Mendsaikhan to establish agreements with importing companies, which state the rights and responsibilities of the sides involved, in order to ensure the stability of the products’ prices.

To prevent the rise in price and shortage of key commodities, the State Great Khural approved the Law on Exemption from Customs on April 29, 2022. In its framework, the appropriate conditions were created for exempting sugar, sugarcubes, vegetable oil, and rice from customs duty until the end of the year and stabilize its supply and prices.

By exempting the main imported foods from customs duty, its prices are estimated to decrease by 4-7 percent.

Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, is planning to discuss the potential withdrawal of the country from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Health Organization (WHO), according to Pyotr Tolstoy, the vice speaker of the parliament.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a list of such agreements to the State Duma, and together with the Federation Council [upper house of parliament] we are planning to evaluate them and then propose to withdraw from them,” Tolstoy said on Tuesday.

The vice speaker said that Russia had already canceled its membership in the Council of Europe, and that leaving the WTO and WHO is next.

“Russia withdrew from the Council of Europe, now the next step is to withdraw from the WTO and the WHO, which have neglected all obligations in relation to our country,” he said.

Tolstoy added that the government is expected to revise Russia’s international obligations and treaties that do not currently bring any benefit but directly damage the country.

In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the “illegal” restrictions placed on Russian companies by Western states run counter to WTO rules, and told the government to update Russia’s strategy in the organization by June 1.

The decision came amid the sweeping Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its military operation in Ukraine launched in late February. Since then, Russia has been subjected to around 10,000 targeted restrictions, making it the world’s most sanctioned country.