London (CNN Business)For decades, crude oil has been at the center of global commodities markets. Demand has served as a crucial metric of economic health, and price spikes have had major ramifications for gas-guzzling consumers.

But as countries around the world try to combat the climate crisis, oil could take a backseat, while metals like copper and lithium gain prominence.

"The critical role copper will play in achieving the Paris climate goals cannot be overstated," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent research note titled "Copper is the new oil."

'Dire warning' for the planet: Coal is powering the economic recovery

'Dire warning' for the planet: Coal is powering the economic recovery

Setting the scene: Copper is an essential component of systems that allow wind, solar and geothermal energy to be tapped and transmitted for applications like heating homes, the analysts noted.

And the market already looks tight. Copper prices have rallied 80% over the past 12 months, and supply is constrained as demand skyrockets. It takes two to three years to extend an existing mine, and as many as eight years to establish a new project, according to Goldman Sachs.

That could set up the price of copper to jump from current prices of more than $9,000 per tonne to $15,000 per tonne by 2025, per the bank's estimates.

There's also a growing focus on lithium, a key component for batteries in electric cars. In a recent note, analysts at Macquarie Research predicted that demand for electric vehicles could trigger "material shortages" of the metal from 2025.

These constraints are putting lithium miners in the spotlight. On Monday, Australia's Orocobre and Galaxy announced a $3.1 billion merger that would create one of the biggest lithium companies in the world.

Why it matters: Global carbon dioxide emissions are set to surge dangerously this year as the global economy undergoes a huge recovery, according to a report published Tuesday by the International Energy Agency.

The Paris-based group estimates that carbon emissions from energy use are on track to spike by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021, as heavy coal consumption in Asia, and in China in particular, outweighs rapid growth in renewable sources. That would be the second largest annual increase in energy-related emissions in history.

"This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

Watch this space: The IEA is sounding the alarm before 40 world leaders come together later this week for a two-day virtual summit on the climate crisis convened by President Joe Biden. Birol called it a "critical moment to commit to clear and immediate action."

Political shenanigans ahead of a June presidential election in Mongolia have taken a new turn by shifting the battle toward outlawing entire parties (the ruling party no less) and by alleging military connections.

On April 18, President Battulga Khaltmaa issued a decree to dissolve the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The MPP currently holds a parliamentary supermajority and successfully amended the Constitution in 2019 to significantly check presidential powers. The presidential decree included specific accusations against Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, whom it is widely believed will be the MPP candidate for the imminent presidential elections. Battulga belongs to the Democratic Party, the main rival to the MPP.

The text appeared on Battulga’s presidential website, with an embedded YouTube video of Battulga presenting the order in front of the white yak-tail standards symbolizing state authority that stand in the heart of the Government Building on Sukhbaatar Square. The Governing Committee of the MPP held a meeting and responded with a video on Facebook Live, featuring eight MPP members, seven of whom are parliamentarians, and the secretary of the Governing Committee, standing in front of a staircase in what appears to be the MPP headquarters building adjacent to the Government Building and Sukhbaatar Square.

In other words, the matter does not appear to be settled, and the struggle has only intensified. The MPP Governing Committee also stated that Battulga’s decree will be discussed in the relevant Standing Committees of parliament, news.mn reports.

Battulga’s move follows the decision of the Constitutional Court on April 16 that countered his claims that he should be able to run in the upcoming presidential elections of June 2021, despite a constitutional amendment in effect stating that presidents may hold only one term. The State Great Khural, Mongolia’s parliament, has not yet accepted the decision officially. There has been some commentary that to accept the decision would mean that the parliament would be accepting that it had acted unconstitutionally when making previous changes to the Law on Presidential Elections.

Candidates for president are to be named in early May by the parties represented in parliament and the election is to be held on June 9.

While some of these statements may be dismissed as an early start to the presidential campaign, the frequent reference to the constitutionality of various measures, in addition to mutual complaints that political opponents are threatening Mongolia’s national security, raises some fears about a more general threat to democracy.

Perhaps most alarmingly, both sides have accused the other of improper relations with the military. Battulga characterizes certain reforms by Khurelsukh (the only place in the text where the former prime minister is actually named) as “militarization” of the party through coordination between governors’ offices, local party organizations, and local military units. Battulga states that “this is also a cause of suspicion that the Party is at risk of executing military actions.” Tweets are also resurfacing claims by MP Enkh-Amgalan, made during a Parliamentary session in 2018, that Khurelsukh had gathered “around 300 military officers.”

The MPP hit back with similar allegations. According to news.mn, at the press conference at which the MPP Governing Committee statement was presented, MP Ayursaikhan stated that “Reportedly, the Mongolian president, after making his statement, visited the General Staff of the Armed Forces.”

In addition to these accusations of improper attempts to use the military in political maneuvering, the two statements each accuse the “other side” of unconstitutional and illegal actions, including undermining national unity and security. Battulga’s decree accuses the MPP of violating multiple articles of the Mongolian Constitution, the Law on Political Parties, and the National Security Concept. He alleged that the National Security Council is captured by the MPP, and that the Constitutional Court is “unworthy of the people’s confidence and recognition.”

Meanwhile, MP and former Minister of Finance Ch. Khurelbaatar stated that more than a dozen laws had been violated by Battulga’s decree. The written statement of the MPP Governing Council names many of the same laws as Battulga’s statement, and states that Battulga’s statement is an “act by which the President Kh. Battulga abuses his legal authority, infringes on the right of citizens to freedom of association, affects the independence of the judiciary, and undermines the values of democracy for personal gain.”

While Battulga’s statement charges the MPP with splitting up his own Democratic Party through manipulation of government agencies, the MPP statement calls on “all political parties to unite against the crime of attempting to overthrow the democratic system of parliament, seize state power by unconstitutional means and establish a dictatorship by dissolving any political party.”

Social Media Broadcasts and Public Response

Following the decision by the Constitutional Court, Battulga’s declaration may appear to many as a last-gasp effort to fight for his political life. However, he has chosen to do so by pointing to the power of the MPP, something that speaks to his readiness to play to popular sentiments. Many voters appear to be expressing concern about the possibility of an MPP president at a time when the Mongolian parliament is also dominated by the MPP.

The president’s live broadcast (on his Facebook page) on the decree took place at 12:16 a.m. on April 19 and has 1,200 shares and 1,500 comments at the time of writing. The broadcast on Facebook Live by livetv.mn of Battulga’s decree has 547,000 views, 23,000 “likes,” and 10,000 shares. The reaction varied, from many allying with the president to many criticizing him for dividing the country when he should be uniting it. The MPP Governing Council’s presentation of their statement (also live broadcast) similarly instigated public frustration. Although the event unfolded during the night hours in Mongolia, politicians have been criticized for showing up in mass when their power is on the line while remaining silent about numerous issues of social injustice.

Notably, there has been very little social media commentary by professional analysts that one would expect to see speaking about the Constitutional Court decision, and almost none about the president’s decree and the MPP’s response. The MPP Governing Committee statement also closes with: “We call on all our citizens not to fall prey to any illegal, provocative and organized activities at a critical time when we Mongolians are all together fighting the pandemic.” Battulga’s statement alleged that the COVID-19 pandemic had been repeatedly politicized.

The mention of COVID-19 measures in both statements is a reminder not only that Khurelsukh’s government stepped down in the wake of mass protest against its COVID-19 response in January, but also that the COVID-19 emergency in Mongolia continues to be dire. The pandemic is the context for rampant expressions of political dissatisfaction on the part of Mongolians. In addition to the belief that Khurelsukh “resigned” so that he would be free to run for president, in recent days many Mongolians have been expressing the sentiment that the Constitutional Court rulings, and associated parliamentary measures and presidential vetoes, on Battulga’s eligibility to run for president are a distraction from the worsening COVID-19 emergency in the country.

1,169 people were tested positive for coronavirus after tests were carried out at 23 laboratories nationwide in the past 24 hours.

1,039 of the newly detected cases were reported in Ulaanbaatar city, 129 in rural areas and one hospital-acquired case was recorded.

Mongolia now has 25,364 confirmed cases of COVID-19. In the last 24 hours, 486 people have been discharged from hospital, making the number of recoveries 13,346.

Furthermore, five people have died from coronavirus. As of today, 3,658 people are undergoing treatment, and of whom 58 are in very critical health condition.

London (CNN Business)Global carbon dioxide emissions are set to surge dangerously this year as the global economy undergoes a huge recovery.

In a new report, the International Energy Agency estimates that carbon emissions from energy use are on track to spike by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021, as heavy coal consumption in Asia, and in China in particular, outweighs rapid growth in renewable sources. That would be the second largest annual increase in energy-related emissions in history.

"This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022."

The Paris-based group is sounding the alarm before 40 world leaders come together later this week for a two-day summit on the climate crisis convened by President Joe Biden. Birol called it a "critical moment to commit to clear and immediate action."

As countries around the world locked down last year and people were instructed to stay at home to limit Covid-19 infections, emissions fell dramatically.

But any climate benefit from the pandemic looks poised to be short-lived. The IEA estimates that global energy demand will rise by 4.6% in 2021 and exceed 2019 levels, fed by rising energy use in developing economies and emerging markets.

Energy-related emissions are expected to end the year just below where they stood in 2019, reversing 80% of the decline seen in 2020.

A resurgence in the use of coal is of particular concern, with demand expected to approach its 2014 peak this year.

China is expected to account for 50% of global demand growth for coal. Use in the United States and Europe is also rising but is expected to stay "well below pre-crisis levels."

Earlier this week, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for developed countries to phase out the use of coal by 2030, and for an end to the construction of new coal-fired power plants.

Electricity demand, meanwhile, is projected to see its fastest growth in more than a decade.

But there's some good news: More than half of the increase in global electricity supply will come from renewable sources in 2021, driven in part by growing solar and wind energy output from China.

The IEA's estimates are subject to "major uncertainty" given the lack of clarity on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and vaccinations. If travel recovers sooner than expected, for example, energy demand will increase even further.

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (“Turquoise Hill” or the “Company”) today announced first quarter

2021 production for Oyu Tolgoi LLC (“Oyu Tolgoi”) and provided an update on the Oyu Tolgoi mine.

Q1 2021 highlights

 In Q1 2021, the mining of Phase 4b and Phase 6b moved deeper into the higher grade ore

zone, resulting in a planned increase in head grades:

o Copper production of 45,449 tonnes, an increase of 29% vs Q1 2020 and of 9% vs

Q4 2020; and

o Gold production of 145,656 ounces, an increase of 457% vs Q1 2020 and of 66% vs

Q4 2020

 Q1 2021 mill throughput of 9.81 million tonnes was 10% lower vs Q1 2020 due to overall

harder ore. Mill throughput was 2% higher than Q4 2020 due to the impact of scheduled mill

maintenance in Q4 2020.

 Access to higher copper and gold grades in Q1 2021 is expected to continue through the

remainder of the year.

Force Majeure

On March 30, 2021, Oyu Tolgoi declared force majeure in connection with customer contracts for

concentrate. Shipments of concentrate to its Chinese customers were suspended due to COVID-19

health and safety precautions related to Chinese-Mongolian border crossings. Oyu Tolgoi partially

resumed its cross-border concentrate shipments into China on April 15, 2021, and is evaluating

multiple contingencies to address the force majeure situation, including an alternative shipping route

via Ulaanbaatar.

COVID-19 Update

Following the previously announced two confirmed cases of COVID-19 at site and a corresponding

halt to underground work in March 2021, Oyu Tolgoi has carefully managed the situation, including

through widespread testing and implementation of a quarantine period.

Accordingly, underground work has progressively resumed and continued to ramp-up as personnel

return to site following the quarantine period and resumption of flights to site.

The COVID-19 situation in Mongolia remains fragile and subject to rapid change. Oyu Tolgoi is

constantly adapting to the changing circumstances to prioritize the health and safety of its

employees. The Company continues to work with Oyu Tolgoi and Rio Tinto to monitor closely any

impacts of this ever-changing situation on current operations and the underground development.

Negotiations with the Government of Mongolia

Turquoise Hill and Rio Tinto have been in Ulaanbaatar since March to discuss with the Government

of Mongolia a path forward to address outstanding issues that the Government of Mongolia has with

respect to the Oyu Tolgoi underground development project including in relation to Parliamentary

Resolution 92. Turquoise Hill remains committed to its presence in Mongolia and, in all discussions

with Rio Tinto and the Government of Mongolia, is focused on maximizing value for all stakeholders

including finding solutions that benefit the people of Mongolia in a meaningful way.

Underground Development

Oyu Tolgoi is progressing as planned in relation to the technical criteria for commencement of the

undercut. Regulatory approvals by the Government of Mongolia are still pending and are critical

elements to proceed with the decision to commence the undercut. The Company will update the

market on the status of the regulatory approvals and the undercut decision in the coming weeks.

Oyu Tolgoi Tax Assessment

In February 2021, Oyu Tolgoi received notices of payment totalling $230 million relating to amounts

disputed under an audit on taxes imposed and paid by Oyu Tolgoi between 2016 and 2018.

In March 2021, Oyu Tolgoi received notices of payment totalling $126 million relating to amounts

disputed under an audit on taxes imposed and paid by Oyu Tolgoi between 2013 and 2015.

Under the applicable Mongolian tax law, the amounts were due and paid by Oyu Tolgoi.

Notwithstanding, Oyu Tolgoi continues to dispute the amounts through a formal international

arbitration proceeding and the Company remains of the opinion that Oyu Tolgoi has paid all taxes

and charges required.

April 20 (Xinhua) -- The COVID-19 cases in Mongolia rose by 1,311 in the last 24 hours to 24,195, with the death toll rising by two to 57, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Tuesday.

The latest confirmed cases were locally transmitted, and most of them were detected in the country's capital Ulan Bator, which is hardest hit by the COVID-19, the NCCD said in a statement.

Meanwhile, 459 more people were discharged from hospitals, bringing the total number of recoveries in the country to 12,860, it said.

Mongolia's COVID-19 surge continues, and in recent days, around or more than 1,000 COVID-19 infections have been reported daily in the country, mostly in Ulan Bator, which is home to over half of the country's population of 3.3 million.

The virus has spread to Ulan Bator and 19 of all the 21 provinces of the country.

A full nationwide lockdown, aimed at curbing the steep surge in local COVID-19 cases, took effect on April 10 and will last until April 25.

The Asian country reported its first imported COVID-19 case in March 2020 and confirmed its first locally transmitted cases in November. Enditem

April 19 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has launched a bond market guide for Mongolia, the bank's office in the country said Monday.

The creation of a regulatory framework for corporate debt securities for private placements is key to developing Mongolia's bond market, according to a new report of the ADB.

"The development of local currency bond markets is important, but even more so for countries looking to boost their recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Developed bond markets can support infrastructure finance, which is critical for emerging Asian economies to ensure further economic development," said the report, Bond Market Guide for Mongolia.

The publication provides comprehensive information about Mongolia's local currency bond market.

Mongolia has participated actively in the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum since 2019, alongside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan and South Korea.

"ADB has been developing the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series to share the experience and knowledge accumulated under the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI)," said Joseph Ernest Zveglich Jr, ADB deputy chief economist. "Bond Market Guide for Mongolia was published as part of this series. We hope it will contribute to a better understanding of Mongolia's local currency bond market and to its further development."

The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guides are produced in close consultation with local policymakers and market participants. Their purpose is to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand local contexts and to encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. Enditem

H.E. Mrs. B. Battsetseg, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Mongolia, had a telephone conversation with H.E. Mr. Antony Blinken, United States Secretary of State, on April 20, 2021.

The two sides have expressed their shared views on the active expansion and development of the Mongolia-American relations and cooperation within the framework of the Strategic Partnership and reaffirmed their commitment to further deepen and strengthen the ties.

Minister B. Battsetseg expressed content over the bilateral cooperation between the countries, as well as appreciation and gratitude for United States’ continued support to the partnership. The Foreign Minister also informed of the recent entry into force of the MCC Second compact.

Recalling the accompanying of the then Vice President J. Biden on his visit to Mongolia 10 years ago, Secretary A. Blinken expressed his commitment to strengthening bilateral as well as multilateral cooperation with Mongolia and commended Mongolia’s efforts towards ensuring peace, security, and development.

The Foreign Minister and the State Secretary exchanged views on the current conditions and cooperation during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

President of Mongolia Khaltmaagiin Battulga informed the public on April 19 that he issued an ordinance on disbanding the Mongolian People’s Party, the ruling power. The ordinance has been forwarded to the State Supreme Court.

The ordinance reads:

“One. The ruling Mongolian People’s Party has violated the constitutional requirement for political parties to “maintain security of the government and comply with the rule of law.” The Party has unlawfully transferred the constitutionally-proclaimed state-oriented governance system to a party-oriented governance system by subverting the government bodies that are required to abide by the law and to operate in an independent manner, for they are united under the responsibility to protect the national fundamental interests, and by turning the public service into a structure that illegally and obediently fulfills the tasks assigned by the leaders of the Mongolian People’s Party.

The Party’s actions do not comply with the Constitution of Mongolia and the Law on Political Parties, for they deny the interests of its ordinary members and supporters, eradicate the rule of law, undermine the Constitution, the very foundation of the country’s independence, fracture the national unity. The Party attempted to take over the state power by unconstitutional means and furthermore, to militarize the Party’s local offices and local governors, who are responsible for the functions of public administration.

On the basis of the above-mentioned motives and in accordance with Sections 1 and 2 of Article 3, Paragraph 10 of Article 16, Section 1 of Article 19, Section 1 of Article 30, Section 2 of Article 32, Paragraph 10, Section 1 of Article 33, Section 2 of Article 33, and Section 1 of Article 70 of the Constitution, Section 4.2 of Article 4 of the Law on Political Parties, Articles 3,4 and 6, and Section 8 of Article 8 of the Law on National Security, Section 3.3 titled “Internal Security” of the National Security Concept, which stipulates that “the foundation of internal security shall rest on ensuring human rights and freedoms, adherence to the Constitution, respect for the rule of law, continuity of the Mongolian state governance and national unity, support for political parties, civil society, free press and media, individual liberties as well as safeguarding public order and social stability,” and Paragraphs 3.3.1, 3.3.1.1, 3.3.1.3, 3.3.1.6, 3.3.3.3, 3.3.3.4, 3.3.4.4 of the National Security Concept, I hereby issue an ordinance, declaring the concurrence of conditions to disband the Mongolian People’s Party.

Two. I hereby announce to the people of Mongolia that the following facts attest to the Mongolian People’s Party’s violation of Article 4 of the Law on Political Parties, and Article 23 of the said law that provides “the Supreme Court shall disband and unregister a political party in accordance with the 23.1 of this law in case the party in question has undermined authority and independence of Mongolia, violated the national unity, taken power over the state by unconstitutional means, and/or transformed into an authoritative and militarized structure”:

The unconscionable and illegal oppression by the Mongolian People’s Party jeopardizes the Constitution of Mongolia, the very foundation of Mongolia’s integrity, independence, and freedom of the people, and threatens democracy, national security, and safety of the people of Mongolia. The Party has made the Constitutional Court, whose sole responsibility is to protect and maintain the rule of the Constitution, unworthy of the people’s confidence and recognition.

The Cabinet, responsible for the nationwide management of implementation of the Constitution of Mongolia and other laws, was ousted within a day upon a decision taken by the Mongolian People’s Party.

Two of the members of the National Security Council have become incapable of carrying out their duties as members of the Council without the consent of the Mongolian People’s Party. In consequence, the National Security Council has not convened since the beginning of 2021.

The leader of the Mongolian People’s Party, while he had been in office as the head of the Cabinet of Mongolia, undertook actions through the State Registration Office, a government implementing agency, to disunify the Democratic Party, the opposition within the Parliament that has been formed through the will of the people, which leads to the disruption of the national unity.

The fact that the Party’s chairman U.Khurelsukh, himself has founded an organization called “Mongolian Military Union” parallel to the Party and has arranged for the organization to have a branch at each Military Staff of local administrations, is a proof that the Party has adopted a militarized structure. This is also a cause of suspicion that the Party is at risk of executing military actions through the organization in question.

The politically-motivated activities of the Mongolian People’s Party have completely subverted the Constitutionally-established state administration and accountability system. The party has also been exploiting the global COVID-19 pandemic situations for its political ends.

Three. I hereby call upon the ordinary members of the Mongolian People’s Party to stay clear of any influence or provocation, and instead, to be cognizant of the fact that as Mongolians, we have a united country, statehood and history, and respect the security and prosperity of our nation.

Four. I hereby remind all civil servants to regard this historic event that is putting an end to the disgraceful oppression by the ruling Party with great attentiveness and responsibility, while cherishing and protecting the Constitution and abiding by the law.

Five. I hereby call upon the people of Mongolia to uphold the national unity and regard the decision and action of the President of Mongolia, while bearing in mind the core interests of our country.

Six. I hereby call upon the State Great Khural, the highest organ of state power, to exercise accountability and stability, and each member of parliament to remember their role as the emissary of the people, and remind the parliament and its members to fulfill their duties with honor.

Seven. The ordinance by the President of Mongolia on disbanding the Mongolian People’s Party shall be forwarded to the State Supreme Court.

Source: The Office of the President of Mongolia

At its meeting on March 10, the Cabinet tasked corresponding officials to ensure preparations to open air border from May 1. In connection with it, the Civil Aviation Authority reported that it transferred the operation of charter flights into a normal mode.

A total of 16 flights will be operated next month in line with the capacity of isolation facilities according to a directive given by the State Emergency Commission. These are:

May 1

Tokyo– Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

142 /transit passengers/

May 1

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

Asiana Airlines

276

May 5

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162 /transit passengers/

May 7

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162

May 11

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

Korean Air

270

May 13

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162

May 14

Frankfurt-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162 /transit passengers from European countries/

May 15

Busan-Ulaanbaatar-Seoul

Air Busan

160

May 15

Tokyo-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

142 /transit passengers/

May 19

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162

May 21

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162 /transit passengers/

May 26

Tokyo-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

142 /transit passengers/

May 26

Frankfurt-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162 /transit passengers from European countries

May 27

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

Korean Air

270

May 28

Istanbul-Ulaanbaatar

Turkish Airlines

280

May 29

Seoul-Ulaanbaatar

MIAT Mongolian Airlines

162