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Events

Events

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

NEWS

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Copper price flies high, but further out forecasts are grim www.mining.com

Copper was once again approaching the pivotal $10,000 a tonne level on Tuesday, jumping to over $4.50 a pound or $9,940 a tonne in New York amid über bullish sentiment and renewed supply worries in the world’s top producing region.
The rally in copper, which has more than doubled in price from its covid-lows, has been fuelled by a widely-held belief that demand for the bellwether metal will receive a massive boost, not just from post-pandemic economic stimulus, but also from a worldwide push for decarbonisation.
Everything to do with the green energy transition requires more copper – notably the electrification of the global vehicle fleet and massive investment electrical grids, renewable energy infrastructure and storage.
While almost all agree copper’s longer term future is bright, there is much less consensus on how much the price of the metal will shine in the next few years.
Copper price eyes record, but further out forecasts are grim
A monthly poll conducted by FocusEconomics, shows wide disparities in forecast prices by the investment banks, brokers, economists and governments in the survey compiled 13–18 April.
The lowest forecast among the more than two dozen participants for the average price in the fourth quarter this year is by BMO Capital Markets which predicts copper to retreat to the $7,000 a tonne level.
Other notable bears are JP Morgan, Societe Generale, BBVA and Capital Economics which also see the price in the $7,000s with further declines in 2022.
That’s a big gap to the most bullish forecaster – Goldman Sachs sees prices averaging $10,620 a tonne in Q4. Goldman, the number one proponent of the existence of a supercycle in commodities, sees more gain in 2022 reaching $12,250 by the end of next year.
The only other participant expecting the copper price reaching five digits is Singapore’s United Overseas Bank. Only ABN Amro, Citi and ANZ see copper above $9,000 in Q4 but apart from ABN, also see a retreat back below that level a year later.
The consensus forecast for the Q4 average is $8,340, sliding to $8,130 in Q4 2022.
FocusEconomics notes that in its April survey more than half of panelists adjusted predictions upward (and four became less bullish) from the forecasts compiled in March.
While the underlying copper market is moving fast at the moment, unless more market analysts come around to the idea of a supercycle in coming months, Goldman looks set to continue to be a lone voice.
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Bogdkhan Railway Bypass Line project progress presented www.montsame.mn

On April 27, members of a working group in charge of the ‘Bogdkhan Railway Bypass Line’ project delivered a presentation on the implementation progress, general plan, and preliminary design budget and plan of the project.
The Bogdkhan railway bypass line project will develop the railway bypass, starting from the main railway of the Ulaanbaatar Railways JSC and branching off from Mandal station to connect to the Maanit station by bypassing the Bogdkhan Mountain to the south.
The project is expected to allow railway transit freight and export/import freight transportation to bypass Bogdkhan Mountain to its south side instead of running through the middle of Ulaanbaatar city. The current railway line will be used for passenger travels and public transportation of cities and districts.
The Bogdkhan railway bypass line project will build a railroad line around the steepest areas in the mountain, the Emeelt and Khoolt mountain passes, enabling freight trains to travel with increased speed and enhancing the freight transportation volume by 5-6 million tons per year. The project also aims to tackle engineering challenges that arise between the Emeelt and Khangai stations with a view to reduce the costs of railway operations. What’s more, the burden on the freight railway and auto road systems of Ulaanbaatar city will be lowered.
The government’s action plan for 2016-2020 and the economic recovery plan approved by the State Great Khural in 2016 both set out to build the Bogdkhan railway bypass line.
After hearing the presentation, Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene noted that it is important to launch a study on developing a detailed blueprint for the railway bypass line in the first place and ordered the working group members, including the Finance Minister and Road and Transport Development Minister, to present options to resolve funding issues for the study for the cabinet discussion.
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Tesla: Bitcoin sales and environmental credits boost profits www.bbc.com

Elon Musk's Tesla made a strong start to the year with profits up and record deliveries of its electric cars.
It came despite production hurdles due to a global shortage of computer chips that has also hit other carmakers.
Mr Musk said the chip shortage caused "supply chain challenges", although that "particular problem" had eased.
Profits for the first three months of the year were $438m (£315m), up from $16m last year, bolstered by sales of Bitcoin and environmental credits.
But the profits were dented by a $299m payment to Mr Musk as part of a controversial compensation plan struck in 2018.
Revenue rose to $10.4bn, from $6bn in the same quarter last year.
Mr Musk claimed Tesla's Model 3, its midsize sedan, was the "best-selling luxury sedan of any kind in the world" for the quarter.
He also predicted the company's midsize sport utility Model Y would become the best-selling car or truck of any kind in the coming years.
"We've seen a real shift in customer perception of electric vehicles, and our demand is the best we've ever seen," Mr Musk said.
The company said the Model Y had so far received a strong reception from consumers in China, where Tesla began manufacturing last year.
China is possibly the world's most competitive market for electric vehicles, with hundreds of manufacturers vying for a slice of the growing market.
Bitcoin move
However, not all of the company's revenues came from selling cars.
The company bought $1.5bn of Bitcoin during the first quarter, but then cut its position by 10%, which contributed $101m to its revenues.
Tesla recently made it possible for customers to purchase the cars in Bitcoin, allowing it to accumulate more of the cryptocurrency.
"It is our intent to hold what we have long term and continue to accumulate Bitcoin from transactions from our customers as they purchase vehicles," the company's chief financial officer, Zachary Kirkhorn, told investors.
Tesla also earns credits for exceeding emissions and fuel economy standards and then selling them to other carmakers that fall short so they can avoid penalties.
The company earned $518m from sales of those credits in the first quarter, an increase of 46% over the same quarter in 2020.
Tesla said it delivered roughly half a million cars in 2020, and 185,000 in the January-to-March period.
The company expects its deliveries to increase by 50% annually, and is ramping up production at its existing facilities in California and Shanghai while it builds its new factories in Berlin and Texas.
Tesla is the world's most valuable car company, with its share price pushed higher by investors betting on strong growth in electric vehicles in the coming years.
However, the company makes far fewer cars than companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen, which each sold more than nine million cars last year.
Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown, said that despite the generally positive results, there could be problems ahead.
"There's the complete lack of guidance around near-term production headwinds," he said. "A global shortage of computer chips is expected to limit production from all manufacturers in the immediate future, and Tesla won't be exempt. Given the ongoing importance of its production ramp up, it may even be more heavily impacted."
And despite Tesla making a profit from sales of Bitcoin, Mr Hyett said there were many sceptics: "Tesla has made some $101m on its investment so far, which is all well and good, but huge gains and losses aren't really what corporate treasuries are all about.
"Investors could well argue that if they wanted to have exposure to Bitcoin they would have bought some themselves and don't need Tesla to do it for them.
"Still Tesla has never played by the rules - so far that hasn't stopped it being a winner."
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Keller Williams expands into Albania and Mongolia www.inman.com

Keller Williams announced Monday that it is opening franchises in Albania and Mongolia, both of which are part of the brand’s continued worldwide expansion.
The two new franchises are both currently “initializing operations,” according to a statement from Keller Williams. In Albania — which sits just north of Greece — Genti Skenderaj will serve as regional operating principal, and the franchise will open its first market center, or office, in the third quarter of this year.
In a statement Monday, Skenderaj said that “although we are a small country, our dreams are very big and ambitious.”
“We aim to become the largest real estate company in Albania inside five years, using Keller Williams’ models and systems, technology and training,” Skenderaj said.
Odsuren Lkhagvasuren will serve as regional operating principal for the Mongolian franchise, which is also initializing operations and plans to open a market center in the third quarter of the year. Lkhagvasuren praised Keller Williams in the statement, describing the brand has having a “uniquely strong culture” that will enable the team to “grow our people and the real estate profession as a whole in Mongolia.”
“In Mongolia, real estate is a young profession and most of the existing agents are young,” Lkhagvasuren said. “There’s a strong demand for a healthy environment where agents can learn and grow in their professional and personal lives.”
Also in the statement, William E. Soteroff — president of Keller Williams’ international division Keller Williams Worldwide — said the company is “honored to introduce two impressive world-class leaders.”
“While we remain focused on the future, the addition of these two new regions to our worldwide family builds on our proud past,” Soteroff added.
Keller Williams announced the two new franchises as part of an update on the company’s international reach. Among other things, the statement revealed that as of March 31 there were 12,912 Keller Williams agents outside the U.S. and Canada — a number that’s up 23.1 percent compared to a year ago. Those agents closed 13,088 sales in the first quarter of this year, up 58.7 percent year-over-year, and did $2.5 billion in volume, up 100.9 percent.
In total, Keller Williams Worldwide has 265 market centers outside of the U.S. and Canada. In order to start an international Keller Williams franchise, a would-be principal needs to have “a qualified leadership team grounded in the Keller Williams culture,” the company’s statement explains.
“The company also strives for government, banking and judicial system stability and a higher maturity level for a real estate market,” the statement adds.
The announcement of two far-flung new franchises comes as speculation mounts that the company could be going public in the near future, though Keller Williams itself has not confirmed any plans to begin selling shares.
Beyond Anglophone North America and the two new markets, Keller Williams operates internationally in South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Caribbean.
Soteroff added in the statement that “despite COVID conditions, it’s our unique privilege to again report robust growth across the globe.”
“The credit for our continued year-over-year momentum belongs to our people,” he added, “the driving force and the foundation of our culture and our strong agent-centric systems and models, supported by powerful technology.”
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Mongolia reports 1,098 new COVID-19 cases, 8 more deaths www.xinhuanet.com

April 27 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia reported 1,098 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, bringing its national tally to 32,437, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Monday.
Six of the latest confirmed cases were imported from abroad, and the remaining ones were locally transmitted, the NCCD said in a statement.
Eight more deaths were reported, bringing the death toll to 88, the center said.
Meanwhile, 733 more people were discharged from hospitals, bringing the total number of recovered patients to 17,543.
A full nationwide lockdown, aimed at curbing the steep surge in local COVID-19 cases, took effect on April 10 and will last until May 8.
A total of 707,838 Mongolians have received vaccines, according to the country's health ministry.
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President addresses 77th session of UN Economic, Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific www.montsame.mn

Address by H.E. Mr. Khaltmaa Battulga, President of Mongolia, at the Seventy Seventh Session of The United Nations Economic And Social Commission For Asia And The Pacific.
"Mr. Chair,
Madame Executive Secretary
Distinguished delegates,
Ladies and gentlemen,
I am delighted to have this opportunity to address virtually at the opening of the seventy seventh session of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
I am confident that this session of the Commission will contribute to setting out policies and identifying common goals designed to overcome the social and economic crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pandemic has brought the most serious social and economic devastation to the world since World War II. It remains unclear when the crisis will end, when countries will accomplish social and economic recovery, and when humanity will adapt to the “new normal.” Although each country is taking steps to overcome the crisis, we need to fight the crisis together and further enhance multilateral cooperation.
The speedy and efficient vaccination against the pandemic is the best solution to returning life to normal. Equal distribution and access to vaccines is the most effective way to overcome the crisis together. Nobody is safe until everyone is safe.
Mr. Chair,
It is clear that social protection responses to the pandemic by many Governments will hinder the economic recovery. It is important to look at the “big picture” of how to successfully overcome the current crisis, integrate the economic recovery with people-centered development policies, and address the challenges.
The present situation requires change in our understanding on the economic system that we know, including the notion of a growth-based economy. In the future, the difference between developing and developed countries will be widened and the debt is expected to rise. Also, it is expected that there will be slow and delayed implementation of goals, such as achieving sustainable development, developing transport connectivity, building a fair society and delivering accessible health care and social services.
Therefore, it is crucial to expand international cooperation, develop a unified long-term policy aimed at improving human development and livelihood and ensuring environmental sustainability. We expect that this unified policy will be as a signal of change and an opportunity to lead to new conditions, to see holistically and give impetus to solution.
Infrastructure, energy and transport are the central development pillars of landlocked developing countries like Mongolia. In this regard, we proposed to jointly implement a project to build an energy power grid to address the rational use and distribution of power in Northeast Asia. In the region, which is rich in renewable energy, the project is expected to not only increase the use of renewable energy, but also make a significant contribution to environmental protection and the fight against climate change.
Lastly, it is my firm belief that the deed to build the most prosperous and most crisis resilient Asia-Pacific will be realized and implemented.
I thank you for your attention.
Source: The Office of the President of Mongolia
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Prime Minister, Chinese Ambassador discuss next shipments of COVID-19 vaccine to Mongolia www.montsame.mn

On April 26, 2021, Prime Minister of Mongolia Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai received Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the People’s Republic of China to Mongolia Chai Wenrui.
At the outset of the meeting, Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene expressed his gratitude for the government of China and its people for putting the issues discussed over the course of a phone call between Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene and Chinese Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang dated April 7 into effect and requested the Chinese Ambassador to convey the thanks to the Chinese officials.
He further thanked Ambassador Chai Wenrui for his efforts and quick actions to support Chinese assistance and donation vaccine, medical supplies, and PPEs for Mongolia’s COVID-19 response and in the commercial vaccine shipments within the framework of the friendly neighborhood relations and cooperation of the two nations.
The Prime Minister and the Ambassador also exchanged views on possibilities to arrange the next shipment of COVID-19 vaccine to Mongolia as well as further opportunities to deepen the Mongolia-China comprehensive strategic partnership and maintain normal cooperation amid the pandemic. As of today, Mongolia has received 1,500,000 doses of Sinopharm vaccine from China through donation and purchase.
PM Oyun-Erdene informed that he would become acquainted with the conditions at the country’s border ports next week. In connection with this, the sides talked about further measures to take in order to regularize the operations of border checkpoint that play important role in the bilateral relations of Mongolia and China.
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Prime Minister, Russian Ambassador discuss COVID-19 vaccine supply to Mongolia www.montsame.mn

On April 26, 2021, Prime Minister of Mongolia Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai received Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Mongolia Azizov Iskander Kubarovich.
While discussing some timely bilateral issues of mutual concern, the sides at the meeting pledged to ensure active collaboration between Mongolia and Russia amid the pandemic.
In accordance with an agreement established to purchase 1 million doses of Sputnik-V vaccine from Russia, Minister Oyun-Erdene highlighted the importance of the prompt supply of the vaccines and delineating the delivery schedule.
Vowing to pay special attention to ramping up the vaccine delivery, the Russian Ambassador congratulated the Prime Minister and the government of Mongolia for taking proper measures against the pandemic, vaccinating its population within a short period, leading among Asian countries in terms of percentage of the vaccinated population.
Both sides also agreed to develop a detailed plan of events and high-level meetings to be organized on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of Mongolia-Russian diplomatic ties.
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Iron ore price surges to record high www.mining.com

Iron ore prices jumped to a fresh high on Monday, supported by structural contradiction of supplies and a shortage in medium and high-grade products, Jinrui Capital analyst Zhuo Guiqiu told Reuters.
“Even the low-grade Super Special Fines with 56.7% iron content is at over 1,200 yuan a tonne, which is more expensive than the most-traded futures contract,” Zhuo added.
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for September delivery, closed 4.3% higher at 1,145 yuan. The contract jumped 6.3% earlier.
According to Fastmarkets MB, Benchmark 62% Fe fines imported into Northern China (CFR Qingdao) were changing hands for $193.58 a tonne on Tuesday, up 3.93% from Friday trade.
The high-grade Brazilian index (65% Fe fines) also advanced to a record high of $226.90 a tonne.
Chinese steel futures also closed at all-time highs, underpinned by robust demand and concerns over production curbs.
The northwest Shaanxi province recently urged local departments, as requested by China’s state planner and other authorities, to verify local steelmakers’ crude steel output in 2020 and explain those whose production exceeded designated capacity or didn’t meet it.
Another major steelmaking city Handan in the Hebei province recently issued a notice, asking mills to implement production-control measures in the second quarter.
The measures have sparked concerns of more curbs in the ferrous sector, lifting prices as demand is still strong during the peak season.
The most-active construction rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for October delivery, rose as much as 4.3% to 5,475 yuan ($843.63) a tonne. It closed up 2.3% at 5,371 yuan.
Top iron ore producers Rio Tinto, BHP, and Vale released disappointing output figures last week. And a weaker dollar is making commodities traded in the currency cheaper to buy.
Aluminum is surging and copper jumped to a 10-year high as commodities advance toward the highs of the last supercycle. Metals are benefiting as the world’s largest economies announce stimulus programs and climate pledges as they rebuild from the coronavirus shock.
“Biden’s new climate promises and at least lip service by China to greener domestic policies are keeping the demand picture rosy,” Tai Wong, head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets told Bloomberg.
(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)
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Sumo tournament to begin with no spectators www.nhk.or.jp

The Japan Sumo Association has decided to hold the first three days of its upcoming tournament in Tokyo without spectators in response to a coronavirus state of emergency.
Association executives on Monday discussed how to organize the 15-day tournament that will start on May 9.
The state of emergency went into effect on Sunday in the capital and three other prefectures. It is set to continue through May 11.
The association said that if emergency measures end on May 11 as scheduled, it will allow spectators at the tournament from the fourth day.
This will be the first time since March of last year that a Grand Sumo Tournament will be held without spectators. Tournaments are held every two months.
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