The Bank of Mongolia has reported that there are a total of 100,867 borrowers of mortgage loans totaling around MNT 5.2 trillion as of March 2021. Among them, 74.7 percent or 75,570 borrowers have taken out mortgage loans amounting to MNT 3.7 trillion under the mortgage loan program, 21.7 percent of borrowers have loans sourced from the commercial banks’ own funding and 3.6 percent are from other types of sources. 17 percent of all mortgage loans issued, which equal to MNT 851 billion are allotted in rural areas. In March 2021 alone, banks issued loans to 1,870 new borrowers with total funding of MNT 149 billion.

In order to increase affordability and accessibility of apartments and reduce air pollution in urban areas, the Mongolian government started implementing a mortgage loan program in 2013, targeting mostly families living in Ger district areas. With loan funding from the Bank of Mongolia, commercial banks have been providing Mongolian citizens aged above 18 years old housing mortgages at a subsidized interest rate of eight percent per annum for a maximum of 30 years for the purchase of an apartment of up to 80 square meters.

Beginning from October 2020, the Bank of Mongolia’s regulation on the housing mortgage financing have been changed to reduce the annual interest rate of housing mortgages issued after October 01, 2020 down to six percent with a view to make mortgages more affordable by providing reduced interest rate loans with government subsidies.

As of April 21, 2021 a total of MNT 364 billion in mortgage loans with a six-percent interest rate have been disbursed to 4,972 borrowers. The six-percent mortgage loans will remain available as part of the MNT 10 trillion comprehensive plan for health protection and economic recovery with MNT 2 two trillion earmarked for mortgage loans through 2024.

According to the Bank of Mongolia, the central bank is also planning to issue mortgage-backed bonds in the future, with an annual repayment of MNT 350-450 billion, which will be used to finance subsidized mortgage loans. As a result, yearly mortgage loan funding is expected to grow to MNT 600-700 billion, with at least 30 percent of the total funding provided to borrowers in rural areas.

The Mongolian government is aiming to open a 258.4 km railway line, connecting Tavan Tolgoi, its largest coking coal mine in South Gobi region, to the Gashuun Sukhait checkpoint also in South Gobi bordering China by July next year; once operational, the new railway will facilitate the country’s minerals logistics whilst simultaneously substantially reducing the transportation cost for coal.

The railway line will have the capacity of handling 30-50 million tonnes/year in coal exports. It is anticipated that the domestic coal transportation cost will be reduced to a quarter compared with the current haulage cost of the trucks being used on the road from Tavan Tolgoi via the Gashuun Sukhait (Ganqimaodu) checkpoint to China.

China represents the destination of almost all Mongolian coal for export. As elsewhere in the world, the pandemic has caused a slowdown. ‘The Chinese side demanded that coal truck drivers be tested for COVID-19 at the border,’ Mongolia’s Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry noted. Since this demand was issued, over 1000 drivers had been tested. The ministry noted it is working to fully test 3,000 drivers.

China accounted for 92.5 percent of Mongolia’s total exports and 39.1 percent of its total imports during the January-March period.

A court in Kyrgyzstan on Saturday imposed a $3.1 billion fine on Kumtor Gold Company, which operates the nation’s biggest gold mine, after ruling that the Canadian-owned firm had violated environmental laws.

The district court decision came just a day after Kyrgyzstan’s parliament passed a law allowing the state to temporarily take over a company if its activities pose a danger to human lives or the environment.

Kumtor, which is owned by Canada’s Centerra Gold, was found by the court to have breached environmental laws by placing waste rock on glaciers.

The company, which has called the charges “entirely meritless”, was fined 261.7 billion som, equivalent to $3.1 billion.

Centerra Gold shares plunged on Friday after parliament passed the company takeover law, as the mining firm warned that the legislation could affect its ownership of the Kumtor mine.

Kyrgyzstan has a long history of disputes with Centerra Gold over how to share profits from the former Soviet republic’s biggest industrial enterprise.

The latest stand-off began shortly after Sadyr Japarov came to power in Bishkek following violent riots last October.

Japarov once campaigned for the nationalisation of the mine and set up a special commission to look into its activities once he became president.

(By Olga Dzyubenko and Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Helen Popper)

China’s new births fell to their lowest in almost six decades amid the coronavirus pandemic last year, putting the country’s population on course to peak within the next five years and adding pressure on Beijing to step up reforms to maintain economic growth as the workforce shrinks.

There were 1.412 billion people in China last year, according to the results of a once-a-decade census, up 5.38% from a decade before, but slightly below previous official projections. The annual average population growth of 0.53% in the past decade was the slowest since the 1950s.

China’s population has become much more urbanized and educated over the past decade, trends which should allow the world’s second-largest economy to continue expanding even after its population peaks. In order to remain an engine of world growth, China will require a large increase in spending on pensions and health care and invest more in education and infrastructure to boost productivity.

Slower growth in the population means it could peak before 2025, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics. Demographers generally predict that China will be overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation sometime over the next decade, though China’s economy will remain larger as its workers are more productive.

The number of children born in the country last year fell to 12 million, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday -- down from 14.65 million in 2019 and the lowest number since 1961 when the country was struggling in the aftermath of a famine that killed tens of millions of people.

Even though China rapidly contained the coronavirus outbreak and the economy returned to growth last year, its fertility mirrored other major nations such as the U.S., which saw births slump as economic and social dislocation undercut people’s desire to have children.

No Baby Boom

Number of births in China fell to lowest since 1961

The share of the working population -- those in the ages of 15 and 59 -- slumped to 63.4% in 2020 from more than 70% a decade ago, according to the census. Residents aged 60 and above accounted for 18.7% of the population in 2020, up from 13.3% in 2010.

The ruling Communist Party has been planning for a peak in the population since the 1970s when the country’s fertility rates started to decline due to rising incomes and policies restricting births. In the last census released in 2011, China was declaring victory over rapid population growth, long seen as a threat to the country’s ability to meet its own needs in products like rice and corn. But the slowdown in the population has been faster than officials expected: In 2017, Beijing projected the population would be 1.42 billion in 2020.

The birth policy was eased in 2016 to allow more families to have as many as two children, which caused the share of the population aged 14 or under to rise slightly to 18% from 16.6% over the past decade, the census showed.

Researchers at the central bank recently called for a complete relaxation of birth restrictions, but rising costs of raising children, combined with a shift in people’s preferences to smaller families also seen in other East Asian countries suggest that reform would not change overall fertility trends.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

We think the 2020 census data suggest a population trajectory close to the low-fertility variant projected by the United Nation’s World Population Prospects (2019). That scenario would see China’s population beginning to decline before 2025. The quicker slowing of the population, particularly of the working age, calls for more urgency in policy initiatives including promoting birth, postponing retirement, improving labor mobility through Hukou reforms etc.

Eric Zhu, China economist

Beijing is planning to maintain growth by moving more of the hundreds of millions of people who work in agricultural jobs in rural areas into cities for higher-paying manufacturing and service industry work over the coming decades.

The census showed that the country added 230 million urban residents in the past decade, with 63.9% of the population living in cities last year, up from 49.7% in 2010. That puts the proportion of urban residents in China similar to levels seen in the U.S. in 1950, suggesting large potential for further catch-up.

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The population is also becoming much more educated, a trend which helps its economy grow. In 2020, 15.5% of people held degrees from vocational colleges or universities, up from 9% a decade earlier.

Beijing has announced it will raise the retirement age -- one of the lowest in the world at 60 years for men and as young as 50 for women -- “in a phased manner” by 2025 in order to slow a decline in the working age population. There’s already been an online backlash to the proposals and a government researcher wrote in March that any increase would take place gradually over a number of years instead of in a drastic one-time change.

Elsewhere in East Asia, populations have already begun shrinking. South Korea, which has the world’s lowest birth rates, had 11% fewer births last year and saw its population drop for the first time ever. It was the same in Taiwan, where the population has contracted several years earlier than the official models had predicted.

Japan’s population has been shrinking since 2011, and the 870,000 or so children born last year was the lowest number since records begin in 1898. In the U.S., which has one of the fastest population growth rates among developed nations, the pace slowed to the lowest since the 1930s, as both births and immigration slowed.

— With assistance by James Mayger, Lin Zhu, Tom Hancock, Yuko Takeo, Sam Kim, Yinan Zhao, Yujing Liu, and Jing Li

Mongolia confirmed 477 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, the lowest since April 3, making the tally at 45,936, the National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Tuesday.

The NCCD said that 7,560 samples were tested in the last 24 hours across the country.

Meanwhile, nine more deaths and 1,570 more recoveries were reported, taking the respective totals to 191 and 34,230, said the center.

The number of daily COVID-19 infections has gradually decreased in the country as a result of a recent month-long national coronavirus lockdown, and a mass vaccination against the virus, according to the country's authorities.

Since the start of the national vaccination campaign against the virus on Feb. 23, a total of more than 1,643,000 Mongolians have so far received their first dose and over 628,000 have fully vaccinated.

The Asian country is planning to vaccinate at least 60 percent of its population of 3.3 million against COVID-19.

Mongolia has decided not to publicly celebrate the upcoming International Children's Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic, local media reported Tuesday, citing the country's State Emergency Commission.

The decision made by the commission is part of the country's efforts to prevent a further spread of the pandemic, as gatherings during the holiday could lead to surging infections.

International Children's Day was established in 1949 by the Women's International Democratic Federation to safeguard the rights and interests of children. Currently, many countries annually celebrate the day on June 1.

In 1996, Mongolia officially designated the day as an official public holiday. Enditem

U.S. senators have expressed concern about the current political situation in Mongolia, writing to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken last week, urging the State Department to make its voice heard.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman of the Senate Budget Allocation Committee, wrote in the letter: “Recent political developments may portend for the future of democracy in the country. As you know, Mongolia has been a remarkable democratic success story, particularly considering how it is precariously situated between two authoritarian neighbors, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, the former of which has expressed expansionist designs toward Mongolia in the past and may still harbor them.”

Mongolia’s political system is “semi-presidential,” with a parliament and a publicly-elected president that chairs the National Security Council and acts as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

On April 29, one month before the presidential election, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which has a majority in parliament, hastily initiated a law to change the rules of the presidential election and approved it within seven minutes, removing incumbent President Khaltmaagiin Battulga from the ballot. The law prohibits the president being reelected, because he was very likely to be reelected.

The party attempted at taking the jurisdiction under its control by influencing appointment and dismissal of members of the Constitutional Court, whose main responsibility is protecting the Constitution, in addition to giving them tasks and requiring the court to execute the given tasks, not considering that their actions are weakening the independence of the Court. They are doing it explicitly and shamelessly, said the President in his The President’s Address to the Nation on Protecting Mongolia’s Democracy on April 23.

Various attempts to control the election have been made by a MPP members, some of them led Mongolia under communist rule until the 1990 democratic revolution and are now seeking to regain power and restore one-party rule, according to the Presidential Media Department,

“Recent controversial actions taken by the parliament, the judiciary, and the president—including the hasty passage of an amendment to the Presidential Election Law that barred the incumbent from seeking reelection, the removal of a constitutional court judge seen as likely to challenge the constitutionality of the parliament’s action, and the president’s emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to disband the ruling party—have sparked a political crisis that could undermine the credibility of the presidential election on June 9,” the letter states.

“We are concerned that this chain of events could make Mongolia increasingly vulnerable to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) efforts to undermine Mongolia’s democracy, rule of law, and its judicial system through corruption of and collusion with certain Mongolian leaders.”

In November 2016, following a visit by the Dalai Lama, the CCP punished Mongolia with economic sanctions. Tsend Munkh-Orgil, then-foreign minister and a member of MPP, publicly supported Beijing’s demand that capital Ulaanbaatar prohibit the Dalai Lama from ever visiting the country again, an unprecedented move given Tibetan Buddhism is Mongolia’s dominant religion.

The MPP general secretary reportedly made similar comments on the MPP’s centennial anniversary in March 2021, and several formal exchanges between the CCP and MPP have taken place in recent years involving the general secretary and other senior MPP officials, according to the letter.

Because of its unique geopolitical positioning, Mongolia’s relationship with America is not insignificant and provides opportunities for both countries.

The State Department’s Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations (pdf) asserts that the “the main purpose of U.S. assistance to Mongolia is to ensure that the United States remains an advantageous partner over its geographical neighbors, Russia and China, and to give Mongolia greater latitude in defining its independent foreign and security policy.”

The senators concluded: “In light of these developments, we respectfully urge the State Department to engage in dialogue with all political parties involved with the aim of deescalating the growing tensions between them, ensuring that no one is arbitrarily denied the standing to run for election and each political party has the right to nominate the candidate of their choice to appear on the presidential ballot, and encouraging the maintenance of an impartial judiciary.”

“Democracy promotion must remain a core element of our foreign policy, particularly as authoritarian forces such as the CCP are working tirelessly to erode these values around the world” they added.

The government of Mongolia annually provides herders with incentives to increase agricultural output and encourage supply of agricultural products.

Last year, a total of 90,064 herders and entities owning livestock animals were registered to receive the wool incentives for supplying camel and sheep wool to 85 factories. According to the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, wool incentives totaling MNT 30.7 billion were granted to eligible 88,669 herders out of all registered herders. The herders had supplied a total of 18,566 tons of sheep wool and 676 tons of camel wool to 78 factories in 2020.

The wool incentive program is being carried out by the Agriculture Ministry in accordance with a 2020 regulation on cash incentives for herders supplying sheep and camel wool.

A virtual press conference by the Financial Regulatory Commission (FRC) to present the Financial Market Review of the first quarter of 2021 was held on May 6.

The nonbank finance market (including the capital market, insurance, NBFIs, and SCCs) share of GDP reached 17.5% in the first quarter of 2021; made up of:

Capital market: 9.9%,

Insurance market: 1.1%,

NBFIs: 5.7%, and

SCCs: 0.8%

The FRC regulated and supervised 3,302 entities, and 2,429 insurance agents. The former consisted of the following:

315 joint stock companies, and 281 professional participants in the securities market,

326 insurance companies, professional participants, and auditors,

530 NBFIs,

249 SCCs,

185 REBs, and

438 DPMS and their 978 branches.

Capital market:

Market capitalization increased by 48.5% to MNT3,695.1 billion, compared to same period in 2020.

Liquidation of stocks increased by 1.4 percentage points to 1.8%. The TOP 20 Index increased by 17,732.0 points to 34,635.7 points.

Volume of trading, among the MNT71.8 billion worth of securities, was as follows:

Stocks: 91.8%,

Asset-backed securities: 5.7%,

Investment fund: 1.8%, and

Corporate bond: 0.7%.

Trading on agricultural commodities exchange increased by 145.1%; and MNT69.3 billion worth - of five types of goods - were traded.

Insurance market:

Total assets increased by 14.6% to MNT401.2 billion, and the reserve fund increased by 9.3% to MNT172.6 billion, compared to same period in 2020.

Total premiums, of general and life insurance, decreased by 4.2% to MNT39.0 billion, and total premium of reinsurance decreased by 16.4% to MNT10.9 billion.

Total indemnity expenses decreased by 21.3%, and MNT12.3 billion was paid (amounting to 31.6% of total premiums).

NBFIs:

530 NBFIs operated, and their total asset increased by 17.6% to MNT2.1 trillion.

The total balance of loans increased by 11.8% to MNT1.4 trillion, and 48.5% of loan balance was consumer loans.

85.3% of the total loan balance was accounted to by individuals, and 14.7% was entities.

Due to the increased loan supply (and the access to loan services) the number of borrowers increased 1.4-fold to 610,100 and the number of total customers was 3.4 million (with double counting). The introduction of products and services based on technology in the market influence the increase of the access of loan service.

The monthly weighted average interest rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%.

The average loan per borrower was MNT2.3 million.

Borrowers of FinTech numbered 362,900 (59.5% of total borrowers), and the average loan per FinTech borrower was MNT270,700.

SCCs:

249 SCCs provided services for their 75,002 members.

Total assets increased by 21.5% to MNT278.9 billion. The amount of savings reached MNT201.4 billion (72.2% of total assets).

The monthly weighted average savings interest rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%.

The monthly weighted average interest rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%.

The balance of total loans increased by 11.1% to MNT192.1 billion, compared to same period in 2020. Of total loan balance, 3.64% were non-performing loans.

The number of depositors was 40,166, and borrowers were 38,353.

Real estate brokers:

Entities with licenses issued by the FRC were as follows:

185 entities, and their 206 brokers and 1,219 agents.

Through 935 deals (with double counting), 290 REBs/agents bought and sold real estate; amounting to a total area 98,600m2 and a value of MNT127.2 billion.

Through 390 deals (with double counting) REBs/agents rented and leased real estate amounting to a total 39,300m2 and a value of MNT2.8 billion.

Dealers in precious metal and stones:

Entities and individuals with licenses issued by the FRC were as follows:

Entities (dealers in precious metals and stones, and dealers in products made of them): 34

Individuals (dealers in precious metals and stones, and dealers in products made from them): 58

Individuals (dealers in precious metals and stones): 117

Individuals (dealers in products made from precious metals and stones): 229

Precious metals with a value of MNT103.6 billion were bought and MNT101.9 billion sold.

The Government of Mongolia is currently planning to implement 100 projects on recovering the economy after the pandemic.

“A discussion will be held to receive suggestions from the public and entities from today on May 11,” announced Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene during his report on the works implemented by the Government in the first 100 days since its formation. Furthermore, as the Government cannot single-handedly implement large-scale projects, the 100 projects aimed at developing the country’s economy in 2021-2030 will be announced to the public.

He said, “The current Government does not have the capacity to implement even the first 4 or 5 projects. The Gashuunsukhait railroad will be commissioned on July 1 next year. With the construction of the Tavantolgoi Thermal Power Plant completed, we will be able to reduce our costs by USD 300-400 million. The pipeline of the oil refinery will also be constructed. The Government will spend its reserves with the implementation of projects on Erdeneburen hydropower plant, the fifth thermal power plant, and the extension of the third thermal power plant as well as the Ulaanbaatar-Darkhan road construction. However, these 100 projects need to be implemented. It is not necessary for the Government to implement them alone.

Coal takes about 37-40 percent of Mongolia’s total export. More specifically, gold, copper, iron ore, and coal make 93 percent of the country’s export. However, the price of our main export, coal, is estimated to drop from USD 300 million to USD 200 million in 2020-2040, decreasing by 33 percent. As countries of the world are working towards reducing its coal use, all we have is 10 years to put in all our efforts. If we lose this window of opportunity, issues will begin to arise starting from the state budget. Thus, it is of utmost importance that we launch our 100 projects without losing any time. By successfully implementing the projects, it is projected that the current economy will grow by 3 times and the GDP per capita will increase to USD 8-10 thousand.”

The Government plans to reform the current policy for the mining sector. More specifically, while Mongolia conducted operations on exploration and extraction, works will begin to be more focused on value-added mining products. Plans such as the construction of a coal washing plant at Tavantolgoi is also included in the measure of works to be implemented in the policy framework. “With the plant being put into operation, it will become possible for the price of coal to increase from USD 60-63 to USD 80-100 by transporting it to Gashuunsukhait,” said the Prime Minister. Furthermore, large-scale construction works such as a copper concentrate plant, oil refinery, and metallurgical plant are planned to be completed. In order to increase sales, a decision was also made to establish a Mineral Exchange, which will allow the mineral resources extracted from large deposits to be openly traded on the global market. Moreover, the profits of its sales will be brought to citizens and entities by providing support for education, healthcare, pension, SMEs, and businesses through the Sovereign Wealth Fund, Development Fund, and Unified Accumulation Fund. The legal framework regarding this matter is currently being developed.

Additionally, the sectors of agriculture, energy, information technology, and the creative industry will be developed. The cultural sector must have a method of supporting many more artists and bands such as The Hu to form and have success as well as the filming of Hollywood movies in Mongolia through a tax policy, highlighted Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene. The 100 projects will also include projects on resolving the transport and logistics issue of Mongolia as a landlocked country alongside social reform. Moreover, matters such as improving the quality of life, merging public universities, reforming the educational sector, transitioning into a system that involves all citizens in annual check-ups, and 25 changes to be made in order to improve governance will be resolved.

Meetings have begun between the government and representatives of top entities and donor organizations starting from today.