New York (CNN Business)The difference between CEO and median employee pay grew in 2020 despite the Covid pandemic and ongoing relief efforts.

The average S&P 500 company CEO made 299 times the average worker's salary last year, according to AFL-CIO's annual Executive Paywatch report. Executives received $15.5 million in total compensation on average, marking an increase of more than $260,000 per year over the past decade. At the same time, the average production and nonsupervisory worker in 2020 earned $43,512, up just $957 a year over the past decade.

Both average compensation and pay ratios grew in 2020 during the pandemic. Executives' average total compensation increased more than $700,000 last year while CEO-to-worker pay ratios increased from 264:1 in 2019.

"This is consistent with what we've been seeing year to year," Liz Schuler, AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer, said in a press conference with reporters Wednesday. "Inequality, the imbalance in our economy, is clear by this report that the pay of CEOs and working people continues to be a major problem in this country."

The highest-compensated CEO in 2020 was Chad Richison of Paycom (PAYC), who received more than $200 million in salary and stock awards that vest over time. Other companies with executives topping the list of highest-paid CEOs include General Electric (GE), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Hilton (HLT), T-Mobile (TMUS), Nike (NKE), Microsoft (MSFT) and Netflix (NFLX).

The most skewed pay scale belonged to Aptiv (APTV), which had a 5,294:1 CEO-to-worker pay ratio last year. While the company's CEO, Kevin Clark, was compensated with more than $31 million in 2020, its median employee pay was $5,906.

Other companies topping that list include The Gap (GPS), Paycom, Chipotle (CMG), Hilton, Nike and Coca-Cola (KO).

Companies in the consumer discretionary industry, including retailers like Amazon, had the highest disparity with an average 741:1 CEO-to-worker ratio.

"The only reason we're reaching the other side of the Covid-19 pandemic is because working people stepped up," Schuler said. "We hear so many business leaders calling these workers essential and calling them heroes, but words are not enough. We have always been essential, doing the critical work to make this country hum."

An ongoing conversation

The difference between executives' pay compared to other workers at big corporations has been of growing interest since the 2008 recession, when federal officials mandated that companies publicly disclose that data.

At the start of the coronavirus pandemic last year, many CEOs and top executives announced they would be taking a pay cut or foregoing their salaries altogether. At big corporations, the move to give up some pay wasn't enough to engender drastic improvements for lower-paid employees or make up for pandemic losses, but it was symbolic and necessary to show workers that executives were impacted by the crisis, too.

Giving up pay might not have meant big losses for executives either though. Base pay is only a fraction of an executive's total compensation, which is usually comprised of performance-based compensation such as stocks, options and bonuses.

Despite a slight decrease in CEO base pay, CEOs enjoyed increases in their equity compensation, especially in stock-based pay, which increased over $1 million last year.

For example, while the average CEO salary at S&P 500 companies was a little more than $1 million, performance-based compensation accounted for an additional $14 million, bringing the average total compensation to more than $15 million last year.

On average, CEOs of S&P 500 companies saw their total compensation grow 5% in 2020 while the disclosed median employee pay grew only 1% at those same companies.

The context

The growing difference between CEO and worker pay comes after a year of economic turmoil and in the midst of a recovering economy.

Last month the US economy added 850,000 jobs, a figure that exceeded expectations and signaled that job growth is accelerating. Still, the labor market is down 6.8 million jobs since February 2020, and 6.2 million people didn't work or worked less because their employer was impacted by the pandemic, according to the report.

Jobless rates for demographic groups also show that the pandemic's economic hardships are still mostly shouldered by low-income workers and non-White workers.

At the same time, America is grappling with record-breaking inflation. The consumer price index, a key inflation measure, grew 0.9% in June, the largest one-month increase in 13 years. Over the past year, prices were up 5.4%, the biggest jump in annual inflation in nearly 13 years. The trend is squeezing consumer's as they struggle to keep up with rising prices, especially gas and food prices.

And, like job growth and inflation, the stock market is hitting record-breaking highs, too. Wall Street's biggest banks are reporting earnings in the billions and a slew of high-profile companies have already made their public debut this year.

July 15 (Xinhua) -- At least 4,837 heads of livestock were killed after rain-triggered floods hit the central-western Mongolian province of Arkhangai early this week, the country's National Emergency Management Agency said Thursday.

Eleven of the animals killed in the floods were cattle and the rest were sheep and goats.

In addition, a total of 10 families have lost their homes due to the floods, the emergency agency said.

Heavy rains are expected in large parts of the country in the coming days, the agency said, urging the public, especially herders and travelers, to prevent possible disasters.

SEOUL, July 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's major convenience store chain CU said Thursday it has launched two stores in a new international airport in Mongolia as part of efforts to boost its presence in the country.

CU said the company has become the first South Korean convenience store chain that has established outlets in the New Ulaanbaatar International Airport.

The sole international airport in Mongolia, which opened on July 1 and is also known as Chinggis Khaan International Airport, is about 50 kilometers from the Mongolian capital and has a daily passenger capacity of around 12,000.

The opening of the two outlets in the airport came four years after CU made forays into the Mongolian market through a franchise deal with local retailer Central Express.

One store in the departure lounge caters to travelers and offers instant noodles, snacks, beverages, instant coffee and instant prepared foods, with the other outlet available only to airport staff, CU said.

CU currently operates 130 stores in Mongolia after launching its first outlet in Ulaanbaatar in August 2018.

Mongolia is seen as a promising market for South Korean convenience store operators, with the number of people aged under 35 accounting for more than 60 percent of the total population.

South Korea's convenience store chain operators have been setting their sights on the overseas market as the domestic market has become increasingly saturated.

The 5th batch of Pfizer/Biontech vaccines with 39,780 doses arrived in Mongolia on July 14.

With 84,240 doses supplied on June 16, 85,410 doses on June 23, 85,410 doses on June 30, 30,420 doses on July 7 respectively, Mongolia has received a total of 325,260 doses of vaccines so far as part of the agreement of the Government of Mongolia and Pfizer Inc. (Pfizer / Biontech) to purchase 2,5 million doses of Pfzier vaccines.

The 2.35 million doses of the vaccine are purchased through the grant funding of the Project for Strengthening Capacity of Mongolia to Cope with the COVID-19 and Other Public Health Emergencies Agreement signed between the UNICEF and the Embassy of Japan on March 11, 2021.

UNICEF Mongolia

Mongolia received 20,000 doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine on July 13. The vaccine supply was made via Mongol Em Impex Concern LLC.

Starting today, the country is vaccinating its citizens with Sputnik V without age restrictions. “The Ministry of Health has given instructions to immunize citizens with Sputnik V without age restrictions starting today. The the vaccine is currently being distributed to vaccination sites and citizens will be able to receive Sputnik V shots at any vaccination site by tomorrow,” said spokesperson of the Health Ministry B.Uuganbayar.

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Mongolia to the Republic of Poland B.Dorj had a meeting with Director of the Institute of Paleobiology of the Polish Academy of Sciences Jarosław Stolarski to discuss restoration and expansion of cooperation between the two sides.

Underlining that joint expeditions made large discoveries in Mongolia in 1960 and 1970, the Mongolian Ambassador showed an interest in restoring the cooperation.

The paleobiology institute director expressed his willingness to continue the cooperation and promote cooperation between the two countries in paleontology and biology.

The sides had discussions about determining possible areas of cooperation, exchanging scholars, jointly celebrating the 60th anniversary of the Mongolia-Poland joint expedition, establishing field research stations in Mongolia, staging paleontology exhibitions, and receiving support from Poland in paleontological research in Mongolia.

Mongolia’s mediating role in the Korean Peninsula has emphasized the significance of small states’ soft power in global diplomacy.

Joseph Nye’s notion of “soft power” has untapped potential for understanding the power of so-called small states, which can significantly contribute to peace mediation in the global policy arena by marshaling their soft diplomatic power. In this vein, Mongolia’s diplomatic mediation efforts on the Korean Peninsula, facilitated through its multilateral peace activist foreign policy and its cordial relations with all of the parties involved, have the potential to broaden its foreign policy reach in regional affairs.

‘Soft Power’: Bringing Warmth to a Frozen Conflict

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have, in recent years, shaken the precarious stability established by the 1953 Armistice between the two Koreas. The growing tensions on the peninsula evoke power struggles between big powers such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia, historical adversaries with direct strategic interests in revisiting the Korean conflict. The region remains trapped in the logic of obstinate realpolitik.

Since the early 1990s, major powers have engaged in “hard power” mediation initiatives, employing a primarily carrot-and-stick approach that incorporates elements including financial assistance, humanitarian aid, and economic sanctions. However, these efforts have so far failed to resolve the Korean conflict. This suggests that hard power approaches may not be the best foreign policy solution for frozen conflicts, and they have proven to be especially ineffective in changing the “hearts and minds” of policymakers in conflicting states.

Many observers were surprised when Mongolia quietly revived declining multilateral engagement with North Korea following the gradual breakdown of the Six-Party Talks, which were held intermittently beginning in 2003. Notably, Mongolia’s mediating role has emphasized the significance of small states’ “soft power” in global diplomacy.

In 2014, Mongolia’s then-President Elbegdorj Tsakhia established a new dialogue venue in Ulaanbaatar to facilitate a breakthrough on the Korean issue. The conference type was track two, with diplomats from the Six-Party states invited as well as academics.

The conference aimed to increase trust and confidence among the various parties while decreasing tension and hostility on the Korean peninsula. The Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security (UBD), as it is widely known, has aided high-ranking officials in developing mutual understanding and in reestablishing working relations. Social interactions at events and meals, undertaken as part of the UBD initiative, have helped to soften hardline positions on sensitive security issues. The dialog has also included non-security issues such as economics, energy, infrastructure, humanitarian issues, and the inclusion of youth in peacebuilding initiatives.

The number of participants attending the UBD has grown over time, as has its influence. The UBD has now firmly established itself as a stable multilateral security dialogue mechanism in which North Korea has consistently participated.

Mongolia’s Soft-Power Assets

Mongolia is a small state, with an annual GDP of just $13.84 billion, but has a rapidly growing economy. In 1990, it underwent a remarkable political transformation, from communism to holding democratic elections, without reverting to authoritarianism or political backlash, unlike in other emerging Sino-centric Asian countries. Mongolia’s successful sociopolitical transition was not novel. The roots of Mongolian soft power can be traced back to the Great Yassa (Mongol Empire law) and the cosmopolitan Mongolian identity that developed in the Central Asian steppe (c.1280–1360), when nomadic Mongols secured “Pax Mongolica” hegemony over much of Eurasia.

Today, Mongolia is an advanced democracy with a firmly established market economy that has a reputation for diplomatic mediation and peacekeeping operations. Mongolia’s regional peacemaker role may reflect its desire for renewed global prestige.

In recent decades, the art of using soft power has been enshrined in Mongolia’s foreign policy and via its cordial diplomatic relationships. Pursuing a pacifist foreign policy, Mongolia has sought an “open, independent, multi-pillared” foreign policy and is pursuing a “Third Neighbor” policy in global relations, emphasizing the development of diplomatic ties with both the West and East on pragmatic grounds.

Under this concept, Mongolia has enjoyed positive relations with a cluster of advanced democracies and global institutions including the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the U.N., the World Trade Organization, and ASEAN, all while maintaining its strategic relations with its two great power neighbors, China and Russia. Furthermore, Mongolia has declared its territory a nuclear-weapon-free zone and has striven to formalize its nuclear-weapon-free status. These efforts have helped establish Mongolia’s reputation as an honest and dependable broker committed to regional nuclear non-proliferation.

Mongolia’s expansion of its mediator profile may not have been achievable without a cordial diplomatic record; its amicable relations with both Koreas have allowed its efforts to mediate as a third-party country to come to fruition. In a rare feat, Mongolia has gained North Korea’s trust. The two countries’ historic ties, dating back to 1948 and based on their shared communist ideology, have remained solid, despite Mongolia’s transition to democratic government and a liberalized economy. Mongolia may serve as a window to the outside world for North Korea, providing an opportunity for economic development by learning from its experience.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations with Seoul in 1990, Mongolia has also maintained close relations with South Korea. Today, as part of Ulaanbaatar’s Third Neighbor policy, relations with Seoul have evolved into comprehensive partnerships in several fields, including politics, economics, and culture. Politically, the two nations have sought greater diplomatic engagement by hosting an annual ministerial meeting to exchange foreign policy perspectives, including discussions regarding Ulaanbaatar’s support for the Korean Peninsula peace process.

In economic terms, South Korea was Mongolia’s fourth-largest trading partner in 2019, with bilateral trade volume totaling $266 million. Culturally, Mongolia remains one of the top tourist destinations for Koreans, while South Korea is the preferred immigration destination for Mongolians. It hosts the largest proportion of the Mongolian diaspora abroad, amounting to around 48,185 people in 2019, including 7,381 students.

Mongolia’s diplomatic achievements have demonstrated how small states can use soft power to enhance their foreign policy influence. The country has emerged as a key player in Northeast Asia over the last decade by employing soft power via its multilateral peace activist foreign policy and amicable diplomatic relations with key regional actors and powers beyond. Mongolia’s soft diplomatic mediation efforts through the UBD have thawed a frozen conflict, particularly with North Korea, offering a path to peace. Mongolia has quietly worked to revive the Korean Peninsula’s declining security dialogue, fostering regional cooperation among parties and raising its own profile as a foreign policy actor in the process.

This article is based on the findings of a research paper published in The Pacific Review; an international relations journal covering the interactions of the countries of the Asia-Pacific. The Pacific Review has a particular interest in how the region is defined and organized, and covers transnational political, security, military, economic, and cultural exchanges in seeking greater understanding of the region.

BY: GUEST AUTHOR

Shinae Hong

Dr. Shinae Hong is a senior researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul, Korea, and a former professor and founder of the Department of International Relations at the Mongolia International University in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Her research interests include Korean Peninsula security, international politics, and human security.

TOKYO, July 14 (Reuters) - A coronavirus cluster at a Japanese hotel where dozens of Brazilian Olympic team members are staying has raised new concern about infections at what the world's top Olympics official promised on Wednesday would be "historic" Games.

Just over a week before the opening ceremony, new cases linked to the Games and spiking infections in the host city highlight the risks of staging the world's biggest sports event during a pandemic even without spectators in sports venues.

Seven staff at the hotel in Hamamatsu city, southwest of Tokyo, had tested positive for the coronavirus, a city official said.

But a 31-strong Brazilian Olympic delegation, which includes judo athletes, are in a "bubble" in the hotel and separated from other guests and have not been infected.

The host city Tokyo, where a state of emergency has been imposed until after the Games end on Aug. 8, also recorded 1,149 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, the most in nearly six months.

Highly contagious virus variants have fuelled the latest wave of infections, and failure to vaccinate people faster has left the population vulnerable.

Medical experts are worried that Olympic "bubbles", imposed by Tokyo 2020 Olympic officials in an effort to keep out COVID-19, might not be completely tight as movement of staff servicing the Games can create opportunities for infection.

The Olympics, postponed last year as the virus was spreading around the world, have lost much public support in Japan because of fears they will trigger a surge of infections.

International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach praised the organisers and the Japanese people for staging the Games in the midst of the pandemic.

"These will be historic Olympic Games ... for the way how the Japanese people overcame so many challenges in the last couple of years, the great east Japan earthquake and now the coronavirus pandemic," Bach told reporters after meeting Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

When Japan was awarded the Games in 2013, they were expected to be a celebration of recovery from a deadly earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident in 2011.

Japanese leaders had hoped the re-scheduled Games this year would be a celebration of the world's victory over the coronavirus but those celebrations are on hold as many countries struggle with new surges of infections.

MUTED INTEREST

The coronavirus cluster at the Brazilians' hotel was found during routine screening required before staff started work, said city official Yoshinobu Sawada.

Many Olympic delegations are already in Japan and several athletes have tested positive upon arrival.

The refugee Olympic team has delayed its travel to Japan after a team official tested positive in Qatar, the International Olympic Committee said. read more

Members of the South African rugby team are in isolation after arriving, as they are believed to be close contacts with a case on their flight, said Kagoshima city, which is hosting the team.

The 21 members of the South African squad were due to stay in the city from Wednesday, but that plan has been halted until further advice from health authorities, said city official Tsuyoshi Kajihara.

Global interest in the Tokyo Olympics is muted, an Ipsos poll of 28 countries showed, amid concerns over COVID-19 in Japan and withdrawals of high-profile athletes, with the host country among the most disinterested.

The poll released on Tuesday found a global average of 46% interest in the Games, and in Japan 78% of people were against the Games going ahead.

With spectators barred from all Olympic events in Tokyo and surrounding regions officials are asking people to watch the Games on television and keep their movements to a minimum.

"Billions of people around the globe will be glued to their screens and they will admire the Japanese people for what they have achieved under these very difficult circumstances," Bach said.

Among those will not be competing in Japan is former world number one golfer Adam Scott. He questioned whether holding the Tokyo Olympics was a responsible decision, pointing to fear among people in Japan as it battles its resurgence of infections. read more

Switzerland's Roger Federer became the latest big name in tennis to withdraw from the Tokyo Olympics after the 20-times Grand Slam champion said on Tuesday that he had picked up a knee injury during the grasscourt season. read more

Reporting by Ju-min Park, Antoni Slodkowski, Joseph Campbell and Sam Nussey; Editing by Michael Perry, Robert Birsel & Simon Cameron-Moore

Japan's industry ministry says it aims to increase renewable energy output from fiscal 2019 levels by 70 percent by the year 2030. It is part of the government's goal of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions by nearly half.

A panel of experts met Tuesday to discuss specific measures to boost renewables, and also cut emissions by 46 percent by fiscal 2030 from levels in 2013.

The experts said solar panels at half of the country's public facilities would generate 7.5 billion kilowatt-hours.

And solar power systems at airports would create another 2.8 billion kilowatt-hours.

Other renewables could bring the total up to 312 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030. But some of the experts say these measures would not be enough to reach the goal.

The industry ministry said it would compile a revised basic energy plan later this month.

Much like the reference in this piece’s headline, it’s a cliché to call a country the Saudia Arabia of something.

The top search suggestion at the moment is the Saudi Arabia of wind. That’s Boris Johnson’s dream for the UK and from a leader with an affinity for hot air, perhaps not unexpected.

The Saudi Arabia of lithium query takes you to a story about Chile, which is wrong. Neither is it Afghanistan as this article in the NYT would have it. It’s Nevada; Elon Musk confirmed it last year.

The Saudi Arabia of sashimi is… well just google it. (it’s Palau – ed.)

Chile is not the Saudi Arabia of copper either.

It’s the Saudia Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Libya, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea of copper.

Chile’s share of global copper output is on par with the combined output of the 13 members of Opec in the crude trade.

In 2020 the South American nation produced 5.7m tonnes of copper out of a global total of 20.2m tonnes, according to the US Geological Service. Opec countries were responsible for 24.3m of the 76.1 million barrels per day produced during March this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Chile+

Chile and Peru together constitute close to 40% of world production, which is roughly the share of what is known as Opec+ (add Russia). And consider that Chile and especially Peru suffered frequent covid-related mining disruptions last year (not to mention blockades at some of the biggest mines and transport strikes).

The concentration at the top is only going to increase. The Democratic Republic of the Congo could as soon as next year overtake China as the no 3 producer when the Ivanhoe-Zijin JV, Kamoa-Kakula, adds 400,000ktpa to the country’s total (and doubling its contribution six years later).

Apart from Rio Tinto’s much-anticipated block cave at Oyu Tolgoi (330ktpa) in Mongolia on the Chinese border, the only near-production projects close to this size are in South America.

Anglo American’s greenfield Quellaveco project (300ktpa) in Peru and Teck Resources’ phase 2 at Quebrada Blanca (295ktpa) in northern Chile will further entrench the two countries’ dominance.

Playing with monopsony money

As in other spheres, China plays the long game in mining.

It bagged the largest new copper mine to come on stream in decades – Las Bambas in Peru – by making its sale to a Chinese concern a requirement for approving the 2014 Glencore-Xstrata merger.

In 2016, China Moly picked up Tenke Fungurume in the biggest overseas splash since Las Bambas, paying $2.7 billion to take it off Freeport-McMoRan and Lundin’s hands.

In all, China has spent $16 billion on buying copper projects around the world and at the moment owns 30 operating copper mines and 38 exploration projects.

That’s over and above Beijing’s annual foreign direct investment in mining and exploration, which reached $2.2 billion in 2019.

Go downstream, things will be great when you’re downstream

It’s not only primary production that’s highly concentrated, there’s a lock on the midstream.

Overall, 63% of China’s copper concentrate comes from Chile and Peru, and after decades of investment in the sector, the country refines over 40% of the world’s copper, six times its nearest rival, Japan.

The Tenke deal supercharged the 4C supply chain – Congo-Copper-Cobalt-China – as Chinese imports of concentrate from central Africa and elsewhere accelerated towards 2020’s total of just under 22m tonnes per year.

Cobalt is a by-product of copper mining — primarily in the DRC which is responsible for some two-thirds of global output. China owns 82% of global midstream processing of cobalt for batteries. For nickel in the EV supply chain it’s 65%.

The Biden administration reportedly wants to copy the Chinese playbook, but in order to placate environmentalists will skip the mining part.

In the words of one official involved in critical minerals policy, “it’s not that hard to dig a hole. What’s hard is getting that stuff out and getting it to processing facilities.”

Just like all the oil processing facilities in the US shielded it from the Opec-induced oil supply shocks of the 1970s. Right?

Earthquake in Chile

While the Middle-East is a volatile region (to use a well-worn euphemism), its hereditary leaders and pseudo-democracies have a way of keeping the oil flowing regardless of any palace intrigue, proxy wars, or sanctions.

In contrast, Chile and Peru are in the early stage of fundamental political shifts driven by elections fought over income inequality, poverty and the environment – hardly on the political agenda in places like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

A debate between Opec’s crown princes and emirs has sent oil to three-year highs, up 50% in 2021.

Let’s count the ways Chile can cause a copper market meltup:

It’s rewriting its Pinochet-era constitution, new copper windfall taxes and royalties already approved by the lower house, could, to put it mildly, dampen enthusiasm (your last euphemism – ed.) for new projects, so-called tax stability deals for half the country’s mines (including Escondida, the copper world’s Ghawar) expire in 2023 if they last that long, a powerful mining union is lobbying for state-owned Codelco to have dibs on projects, and if the current frontrunner becomes president in November elections he would be the first person from the Communist Party to do so.

Daniel Jadue also has other ideas to increase the state’s take and involvement – creating a Codelco for lithium (gentle reminder: Codelco was created by seizing mines from US companies in the 1970s) and like Indonesia renegotiate state shareholding in private companies like Freeport had to with Grasberg.

Another successful Indonesian strategy Chile and others would want to copy is to force miners to build smelters and refineries in-country by banning ore exports.

A bit like the current US administration’s clever strategy around critical minerals, focusing on processing facilities, except Chile also produces feedstock for said facilities.

Dear prudence

Now take all of the Chilean political and mining trends, turn them up a few notches, and apply to Peru and its new president Pedro Castillo.

At the start of his campaign, Castillo said he wanted to nationalize the mines but later softened his stance by calling for Chile-like royalties in the 70-percents.

This is a recent headline about Castillo’s latest plans for the industry:

Peru’s Castillo expects mining firms to accept “prudent” tax changes, adviser says

You can read that as having a conciliatory tone, or perhaps it sounds more like: “Nice little copper mine you have there. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it. We’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse.”

Ocec nocec

The copper-oil analogy only goes so far.

While regional co-operation to align mining rules for Chile, Peru, Argentina, Bolivia and others so as to “not compete for investments” (Jadue again) is being discussed, an Opec-like cartel in copper is never going to happen.

Most Opec disagreements are about how much to up production (the UAE wants to pump more oil now because the assumption is as the world moves away from fossil fuels it would be stuck with stranded oil and gas assets down the line).

Codelco is spending more than $40 billion just to keep output steady. Opec-members output hikes can also hit oil markets within months. For copper it takes years, often decades to bring new supply online.

Low and declining grades and with it ever costlier and bigger mines, uninspiring green discoveries, modest brownfield expansions, thin project pipelines, underinvestment in exploration, and glacially slow permitting processes, have become rules of thumb in the industry. And when tailings reprocessing is being discussed as a significant source of new supply, you know something in the industry has changed.

Depletion is oddly little discussed (must be in miners’ DNA – it’s always about the next discovery, not this old hole in the ground – ed). A recent study found that most porphyries (which supply 80% of the world’s copper) are fast nearing the end of their productive life due to the specific nature of how these deposits are formed.

So why is the price falling? idk

The copper price is down 10% since hitting all-time highs of $10,500 a tonne ($4.75/lbs) in May and forecasts are for further declines.

Two years out among more than 30 investment banks, economists and research houses polled consensus is for an average $8,131 a tonne ($3.68/lb).

Technically, that means copper is entering a bear market.

But it’s worth remembering that the metal also traded at these levels as far back as 2011.

Rapid demand growth and rising risks to supply since then does not seem baked into today’s price, much less in continuing declines.