Mongolia exported a total of 65.9 million tons of coal in the first 10 months of 2024, according to official data released by the Mongolian Customs General Administration on Monday.

This figure represents a significant year-on-year increase of 26.6 percent compared to the same period in 2023, the administration reported.

Coal remains a key export commodity for Mongolia, a resource-rich country with abundant mineral reserves. During the January-October period, coal accounted for 55.3 percent of the country's total exports, highlighting its crucial role in Mongolia's economy.

Initially, Mongolia set an export target of at least 60 million tons of coal for 2024, but this goal has since been revised upwards to 75 million tons in light of strong performance.

In 2023, Mongolia achieved a record coal export volume of 66.7 million tons, setting a new benchmark for the country's coal trade.

The drought and dzud (periodic natural disasters) risk index for 2030-2050 will be calculated for each of the 330 soums in Mongolia by determining the climate change impact through the drought index. The impact of climate change on the livestock sector and the water resources used for farming and agriculture will be defined by the risk map of the drought.

The Ministry of Minister of Environment and Climate Change of Mongolia, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, and the UNDP are jointly implementing the “Improving Adaptive Capacity and Risk Management of Rural Communities in Mongolia” (ADAPT) project. A Meeting on Planning and Funding Strategy Based on Climate Change Risk was held under the ADAPT project, where methods and results of this strategy, and actions to be taken were discussed.

State Secretary of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Chair of ADAPT project Management Committee Battulga Erkhembayar emphasized that using the climate change risk index at every decision-making level regarding development and economic planning would contribute to overcoming climate change and climate adaptation.

A study shows that dzud risk will be increased in Mongolia, specifically areas with high risk up by 10 percent and areas with extremely high risk up by 17 percent, while the aridification process will be observed across the country by 2050, with the expansion of dry and extremely dry areas by 10 percent. Therefore, the drought and dzud risk index is critically needed for developing a midterm development plan of aimags and soums, land management plan, and disaster risk plan, and prioritizing actions for climate change adaptation.

The participants of the Meeting on Planning and Funding Strategy Based on Climate Change Risk concluded that proper measures should be taken in line with the Law on Mitigating the Negative Effects of Climate Change on Traditional Livestock Husbandry and the proposals made during the meeting.

Governor of the Capital City of Mongolia and Mayor of Ulaanbaatar City Nyambaatar Khishgee and Governor of Chingeltei district Manduul Nyamandeleg received UNDP Deputy Resident Representative in Mongolia Lin Cao and other delegates.

At the meeting, the two sides exchanged views on collaboratively implementing a project on reducing air pollution through renewable energy.

Governor of the Capital City and Mayor of Ulaanbaatar Nyambaatar Khishgee expressed his focus on alleviating traffic congestion, housing the ger districts, and reducing air pollution using renewable energy. Furthermore, Mr. Nyambaatar noted the potential for future collaboration with the UNDP, studying experiences from the UN agency in this regard.

UNDP Deputy Resident Representative in Mongolia Lin Cao expressed her pleasure in cooperating in reducing traffic congestion, energy shortages, and air pollution in particular. Deputy Resident Representative Lin Cao further expressed the UNDP’s commitment to providing all-round support in strengthening bilateral collaboration and studying opportunities for cooperation in sustainable green city initiatives.

Last year, the Governor’s Office of the Capital City, the Asia Foundation, “URECA” LLC and “Ger Urgoo” NGO jointly implemented a pilot project to reduce the number of chimneys in the ger districts of Ulaanbaatar by transitioning households to renewable energy sources. The project aimed not only to address heating and electricity needs through renewable energy but also to eliminate household stove and fuel use, thereby decreasing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. At the end of the meeting, the two sides expressed their readiness to scale the project from 5 households last year to 100 households this year, reported the Media and Public Relations Department of the Governor’s Office of the Capital City.

As of the end of September 2024, savings in Tugrug, the National Currency of Mongolia, reached MNT 20.6 trillion, an increase of MNT 415.7 billion (2.1 percent) compared to the same period in 2023. The total amount of Tugrug savings increased by MNT 5.7 trillion (38.6 percent.)

Of the total amount of Tugrug savings, MNT 17.6 trillion (85.3 percent) was made by individuals, whereas MNT 3 trillion, or 14.7 percent, by enterprises.

Savings in foreign currency amounted to MNT 4.4 trillion, a decrease of MNT 53.8 billion (1.2 percent) compared to the previous month, and MNT 621.7 billion (12.3 percent) compared to the same period of 2023, reported the National Statistics Office of Mongolia.

Mongolia's coal exports totaled 65.88 million tonnes over January-October 2024, increasing 26.60% from the year-ago level, according to the latest data from the Mongolian Customs General Administration (MCGA).

The export value amounted to $7.31 billion during the given period, rising 3.67% on the year, data showed.

MCGA didn't release the specific figure for September. Sxcoal calculated the exports at 6.74 million tonnes based on the overall exports published by the customs authority, up 29.69% year on year and 24.14% on the month.

The value of coal exports stood at $654 million last month, up 3.71% on the year and 24.01% on the month. The average price was calculated at $96.93/t, down $24.28/t year on year and $0.10/t month on month. The majority of Mongolian coal exported was coking coal used for steel production.

All the Mongolian coal was exported to China during the first ten months of this year. Data showed coal exports to China in October increased by 29.69% on the year and 24.14% on the month.

Mongolian coal exports to China remained at a relatively low level in October, partly due to the closure of China-Mongolia border crossings for seven days during the National Day holiday. Nevertheless, following continuous destocking at supervision warehouses, customs clearance activities saw modest improvements in October from the previous month.

The fourth supervision warehouse at Mandula border port officially commenced operations on October 29, marking a significant leap in enhancing the port's storage capacity. The port's static capacity will increase by 0.3 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) and the overall storage capacity will rise to 3 Mtpa. This growth will contribute to the port's goal of meeting a throughput capacity of 10 Mtpa.

The warehouse can handle 4 million tonnes of imported and exported goods per year, with the capability to regulate the import of coal, iron ore and copper concentrate.

Mongolia has set coal export target of 60 million tonnes in 2024. The country's coal exports had already exceeded this figure. An official of the finance ministry expected Mongolia's coal exports to reach about 75 million tonnes by the end of 2024. Based on the average monthly exports so far this year, this goal is not out of the question.

In 2025, the Mongolian Parliament submitted a budget plan projecting a full-year export of 83.30 million tonnes.

Looking ahead, diminishing macroeconomic positives, waned steel demand during the traditional lull, in addition to stricter environmental inspections during the winter, may dampen molten iron output and erode downstream buying appetite. This, coupled with high Mongolian coal inflows, may further intensify inventory pressure at the border crossings, potentially pressuring future imports.

Over January-October, Mongolia exported 62.81 million tonnes of bituminous coal, up 22.21% on the year. Anthracite exports declined 9.24% year on year to 138,200 tonnes, while that of other coal surged 495.27% from a year ago to 2.93 million tonnes.

In October, Mongolia's bituminous coal exports were calculated at 6.19 million tonnes, up 21.59% from the previous year and 24.75% from a month earlier; exports of anthracite were 14,400 tonnes, falling 24.26% on the year and 35.79% from September; other coal exports reached 542,700 tonnes, jumping nearly 5-folds from the year-ago level and rising 20.43% from the month before.

Mongol Bank has released new insights into the nation’s credit landscape, gathered through a recent survey conducted among commercial banks. The survey, which took place from October 16 to 23, examined the evolving criteria, conditions and demand for loans across the banking sector, providing a forecast for the coming months.

According to the survey results, large banks have made subtle adjustments to their credit criteria over the past three months, particularly by easing consumer loan requirements, while keeping business loan criteria stable. Meanwhile, medium and small banks have held their criteria unchanged for both business and consumer loans. Looking forward, the survey indicates that large banks are expected to relax their credit criteria slightly across the board. In contrast, medium and small banks intend to maintain their existing standards.

The conditions for both business and consumer loans have remained stable over the past three months. However, the survey reveals a potential shift ahead, with large banks expected to introduce slightly stricter loan conditions for individual borrowers in the next three months. Medium and small banks, on the other hand, are anticipated to uphold their current loan terms without modification.

Demand for loans has seen a modest rise at large banks in the past quarter, a trend projected to continue over the coming months. Small and medium-sized banks, however, reported no significant changes in loan demand and anticipate this stability will persist through the end of the year.

These findings underscore a potential shift in the credit market, with large banks expected to take a more flexible approach in their criteria while tightening conditions slightly for individuals. This, coupled with rising demand, indicates that the largest banks may be positioning themselves to meet growing borrower interest in the near term, whereas medium and small banks are expected to retain a cautious stance.

A US judge on Thursday dismissed some claims in a lawsuit accusing Rio Tinto and its former CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques of defrauding investors by concealing problems developing the $5.3 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia.

US District Judge Lewis Liman in Manhattan addressed recently added claims that Rio Tinto knowingly concealed how it would miss a deadline for “draw bell” blasting, a key milestone, while Jacques hid delays and associated cost overruns.

In a 40-page decision, Liman dismissed the claim against Rio Tinto because it was Turquoise Hill Resources, which owned 66% of the mine with Mongolia owning the rest, that said the draw bell schedule was on track.

Liman said Rio Tinto was not liable for that statement even though an affiliate of the Anglo-Australian mining giant was Turquoise Hill’s majority owner.

The judge also dismissed claims that Jacques intended to defraud shareholders in statements about the mine beginning in October 2018, because those statements suggested he believed Rio Tinto’s timetable announced that month was accurate.

Claims against Jacques based on earlier statements survived, because shareholders adequately alleged that he knew delays existed when the class period began, Liman said.

Led by funds advised by Pentwater Capital Management, the lawsuit seeks damages on behalf of shareholders of Montreal-based Turquoise from July 17, 2018 to July 31, 2019.

Pentwater’s lawyers did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Lawyers for Rio Tinto and Jacques did not immediately respond to similar requests.

Jacques led Rio Tinto for four years before stepping down in March 2021, following pressure from shareholders seeking accountability for the company’s destruction of two culturally significant Aboriginal rock shelters in May 2020.

Rio Tinto did not break any laws when working around the Juukan Gorge sites in Western Australia. The sites showed evidence of human habitation dating back 46,000 years.

The case is In re Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd Securities Litigation, US District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 20-08585.

(By Jonathan Stempel and Clara Denina; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 10 Nov 2024: Fitch Ratings has upgraded coal producer Mongolian Mining Corporation's (MMC) Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B+' from 'B'. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also upgraded MMC's senior unsecured notes due 2026 to 'B+' from 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. The notes are jointly and severally issued by MMC and its wholly owned subsidiary, Energy Resources LLC.

The upgrade reflects our assessment of reduced regulatory volatility for the mining operations following an upgrade of Mongolia's sovereign rating to 'B+' from 'B' in September 2024. MMC's IDR is constrained by the concentration of end customers, small scale and high country-risk for the mining operations in Mongolia.

Key Rating Drivers

Reduced Regulatory Volatility: We believe the regulatory volatility for MMC's mining operations has reduced with lower policy uncertainty after parliamentary elections in June as well as Mongolia's stronger ability to withstand shocks due to larger foreign-exchange reserves, lower debt and more manageable external debt maturities compared to Fitch's previous forecasts. Nevertheless, Mongolia is still highly vulnerable to external conditions.

Robust Operations: Border throughput after the Covid-19 pandemic reached about 900 trucks a day on average in 2023 and averaged around 1,000 trucks a day in 9M24, exceeding the average of about 600-700 trucks on average before Covid-19. MMC also benefited from a new mining commodity trading platform that expanded its customer reach. Over 50% of revenue was through the trading platform in 9M24. As a result, MMC's run-of-mine coal output reached to 14.6 million tonnes (mt) in 2023 and 13mt in 9M24 from around 10mt in 2019.

MMC sold 6.7mt of washed coking coal products in 2023 and 6mt in 9M24, compared with the historical annual average of 4.5mt-5mt. The average selling price (ASP) per tonne of washed hard coking coal remained strong at USD160 in 2023 and USD174 in 1H24, against USD147 in 2022.

Strong Financial Profile: We expect the EBITDA margin to trend down in 2024-2027 as coking coal prices fall but will remain above 40% (2023: 47%), supported by steady volume and a low-cost position. We forecast EBITDA net leverage to remain below 0.4x in 2024-2027, after decreasing to 0.4x in 2023 from 3.4x in 2022. We expect high interest coverage to continue in 2024-2027, after EBITDA interest coverage reached 15.4x in 2023.

Acquisitions Drive Diversification and Growth: MMC started diversifying into other metals through its latest acquisition of 50% of gold and precious metal exploration company Erdene Mongol LLC. However, the coal segment will remain its dominant revenue contributor in the short to medium term. We do not expect aggressive M&A in 2024-2027, as management has indicated a cautious approach to acquisitions. Still, we will evaluate any debt-funded investment larger than Fitch expects as an event-driven risk and assess the effects on MMC's financial flexibility and credit profile.

Geographical Concentration: We believe that MMC's main end-customer base is in northern China, even though the concentration of the top 10 customers decreased to 54% in 2023 from 93% in 2019. MMC's heavy reliance on Chinese customers makes it vulnerable to economic conditions and regulatory changes in China. This was particularly evident in the Covid-19 pandemic when border throughput fell sharply, resulting in MMC's sales volume dropping to 1.6 mt in 2021, from an average of 5mt historically.

In addition, MMC's cash cost is on the first quartile of the global coking-coal cost curve, but its cost advantage is limited to northern China due to additional transportation costs beyond the region, which we believe will put MMC in the higher quartiles of the global coking-coal cost curve.

Small Scale, Single Product: MMC's scale is small by EBITDA compared with Fitch-rated coal miners globally. We expect EBITDA to be slightly above USD400 million in 2024-2027 (2023: USD481 million) due to stable volumes and a lower coking coal ASP. Washed coking coal products were 99% of total revenue in 2023, in line with historical levels. Its 2023 coal reserve statement shows total marketable coking coal reserves of just under 300mt, or a reserve life slightly over 20 years. MMC's small scale and product concentration constrain its business profile.

Country Risk Remains High: MMC's mining assets are all in Mongolia and are subject to local regulations. We believe the volatile mining regulations have a meaningful impact on MMC's financials. This was the case during the pandemic when the effective rate for the royalty reference price was raised to over 20%, from 5%-8%, increasing financial pressure on MMC. The reference price has fallen and stabilised after the pandemic and the mining product exchange has established a more transparent reference price from October 2023, but the record of stable regulation is short.

Derivation Summary

MMC can be compared with Guangyang Antai Holdings Limited (B/Stable), which has revenue of more than 7x that of MMC. Guangyang Antai's EBITDA is smaller than that of MMC due to its low-single-digit EBITDA margin while MMC's is high at over 40%. We expect MMC to be in a net cash position on average during 2024-2027, while Guangyang Antai's EBITDA net leverage will be around 3.0x.

MMC is a single-product coal miner, similar to Indonesia-based miner peers PT Indika Energy Tbk (BB-/Stable) and PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS, BB-/Stable). Its operational profile in terms of mine life is over 20 years, against GEMS's slightly under 20 years and Indika's around 16 years. Still, MMC's concentrated customer base and Mongolia's volatile mining regulations compare unfavourably with that of rated peers.

Compared to Indika, MMC is slightly larger in terms of EBITDA due to a high EBITDA margin of above 40%, against Indika's margin in the low teens. MMC's EBITDA net leverage is lower at 0.4x than Indika's 1.7x in 2023. Compared with GEMS, MMC is smaller in terms of EBITDA, but MMC's EBITDA margin is higher than GEMS' 25%. GEMS also has better leverage, with a net cash position in 2023.

Key Assumptions

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case for the Issuer:

- Total annual coal sales volume on average slightly below 8mt a year in 2024-2027;

- Mid-single-digit coal revenue decline a year in 2024-2026 as coking coal prices trend down;

- EBITDA margin to remain above 40% in 2024-2027, supported by steady volume and normalised costs;

- Capex to average over 15% of revenue a year during 2024-2027.

- No dividend payments in 2024-2027 based on current expectations.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:

- Positive rating action is not envisaged in light of MMC's limited scale and diversification.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade:

- EBITDA net leverage above 3.0x for a sustained period;

- Adverse changes in mining regulations that affect the operating environment in Mongolia.

Liquidity and Debt Structure

Comfortable Liquidity: MMC had cash on hand of USD279 million at end-June 2024, with no short-term maturities within the next 12 months.

The company has redeemed of all outstanding perpetual notes with face value of USD122.5 million on 2 October 2024 with available cash. MMC's USD220 million bonds issued with Energy Resources LLC mature in 2026, and we estimate the company will generate enough cash to redeem them without the need for refinancing. MMC also has USD30 million of unused committed bank facilities available.

Issuer Profile

MMC is the largest producer and exporter of high-quality hard coking coal in Mongolia. It owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines in South Gobi province. MMC processed 14.1mt of run-of-mine coal in 2023, which yielded around 6.7mt of washed coking coal as a primary product and 2mt of middlings as a secondary product.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS

Click here to access Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included.

ESG Considerations

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products....