EBRD Business Development team is inviting guests to a webinar entitled “Opportunities in the infrastructure sector in Central Asia and Mongolia” on Thursday 22nd October 2020 – from 08:00 to 09:30 BST.

We expect participation from US, Korean, Japanese. Indian, New Zealand & Australian companies.

There is a growing consensus among G20 countries as to the importance of infrastructure, the permanent assets that a society needs for the orderly operation of its economy, as a driver of growth, jobs and competitiveness. International Financial Institutions (IFIs) such as EBRD play a critical role in improving project design and structure in order to attract private capital. IFIs lower transaction costs, risk and risk perception and they support the institutional and legislative reforms needed to encourage the rules of law and ensure that projects are sustainable and welfare enhancing.

The EBRD’s portfolio is almost €2 billion in transport and municipal and environmental infrastructure projects in the Central Asia. There is a substantial scope for private sector companies seeking opportunities offered by projects financed by the EBRD in the region. This webinar will offer an insight from EBRD experts on the region, as well as opportunities and challenges in the infrastructure sector in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia. This will be an interactive debate with an ample room for Q&A where you will:

Hear first-hand about the economic outlook and business environment in these countries.

Discover strategic priorities of the EBRD in the infrastructure sector, and policy dialogue with governments.

Learn about successful EBRD projects and potential opportunities in the region.

The EBRD representatives presenting will be:

Ana Draskovic (Moderator) – Director, Business Development Group

Ekaterina Miroshnik – Director, Head of Infrastructure Eurasia

Hannes Takacs – Associate Director, Head of Mongolia

Agris Preimanis – Director, Head of Kazakhstan

Alkis Vryenios Drakinos – Associate Director, Head of Uzbekistan

Organisers: Ana Draskovic & Aimana Hoskins Business Development

Logistics/registration enquiries: Matthew Foster, fosterm@ebrd.com

Programme

08:00hrs Opening of the Webinar to participants

08:00-08:05hrs Introduction & moderated by Ana Draskovic, Director, Business Development Group

08:05-08:20hrs Opportunities in the Infrastructure sector in Central Asia & Mongolia Ekaterina Miroshnik – Director, Head of Infrastructure Eurasia

08:20-09:00hrs Panel discussion with:

Ekaterina Miroshnik – Director, Head of Infrastructure Eurasia

Agris Preimanis – Director, Head of Kazakhstan

Hannes Takacs – Associate Director, Head of Mongolia

Alkis Vryenios Drakinos – Associate Director, Head of Uzbekistan

09:00-09:30hrs Q&A

Trials of a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will continue, following a review into the death of a volunteer in Brazil.

Brazil's health authority has given no details about the death, citing confidentiality protocols.

Oxford University said a "careful assessment" had revealed no safety concerns.

The BBC understands that the volunteer did not receive the vaccine.

Only around half the volunteers in the trial are given the actual Oxford University Covid-19 vaccine. The second group are being given an existing licensed vaccine for meningitis.

Neither the participants nor their families know which vaccine they are being given.

This enables the researchers to compare the results for the two groups in order to measure whether the vaccine is effective.

AstraZeneca said in a statement that it could not comment on individual cases but it "can confirm that all required review processes have been followed".

"All significant medical events are carefully assessed by trial investigators, an independent safety monitoring committee and the regulatory authorities," it said. "These assessments have not led to any concerns about continuation of the ongoing study."

There are high hopes that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine could be one of the first to make it onto the market.

It had successful phase 1 and 2 testing, while phase 3 testing is being carried out on participants in countries including the UK, Brazil and India.

Trials of the Oxford vaccine were paused last month after a reported side effect in a patient in the UK, but were resumed days later when it was deemed safe to continue.

Phase 3 trials in the US remain on hold while the regulator there conducts its own assessment. A senior official was quoted by Bloomberg on Wednesday as saying he expected US trials to restart later in the week.

Trial 'should continue'

Brazil's health authority Anvisa said it was informed of the Brazilian volunteer's death on 19 October.

Brazilian media report that the volunteer was a 28-year-old doctor who died of Covid-19 complications. They say the doctor had worked with infected patients.

This has not been publicly confirmed by Anvisa.

In a statement, Oxford University said: "All significant medical incidents, whether participants are in the control group or the Covid-19 vaccine group, are independently reviewed.

"The independent review, in addition to the Brazilian regulator, have both recommended that the trial should continue," it said.

Brazil has plans to purchase the vaccine if it is approved.

The country has had nearly 5.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases - the third highest tally in the world after the US and India - and is second only to the US in terms of deaths, with nearly 155,000 registered so far, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University.

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. During the parliamentary discussion held on October 16, Friday on Mongolia’s budget bills, such as State Budget bill for 2021, Social Insurance and Health Insurance Budget Bills for 2021, Minister of Construction and Urban Development B.Munkhbaatar informed that commercial banks had already started issuing mortgage loans with lowered interest rate of 6 percent to eligible borrowers.

Minister B.Munkhbaatar has also updated that MNT 50 billion and MNT 40 billion of financial sources have been made available by the central bank and commercial banks respectively to lower interest rate of mortgage loans down to 6 percent.

He also told reporters on October 20, that 38 borrowers had received mortgages with 6 percent interest, worth MNT 2.5 billion in total since the decision has been made. Minister Munkhbaatar clarified that those who already took out central bank’s subsidized mortgage loans at 8 percent and currently are paying are not eligible for the mortgage with newly reduced interest.

In order to increase affordability and accessibility of apartments and reduce air pollution in urban areas, the Mongolian government started implementing a mortgage loan program in 2013, targeting mostly families living in Ger district areas.

With loan funding from the Bank of Mongolia, commercial banks have been providing Mongolian citizens aged above 18 years old housing mortgages at a subsidized interest rate of 8 percent per annum for a maximum of 30 years for the purchase of an apartment of up to 80 square meters.

In May 2020, the Ministry of Construction and Urban Development issued a press release informing that ‘Apartment’ national program will be implemented between 2019-2023 within the framework of the government’s action plan for 2020-2024.

In September 2020, Deputy Prime Minister Ya.Sodbaatar told ikon.mn news website that in connection with the Apartment program, the government had been studying possibilities to reduce mortgage loan interest with an aim of making mortgages more affordable by providing reduced interest rate loans with government subsidies.

Concerning this measure, Governor of the Bank of Mongolia Lkhagvasuren issued an ordinance on October 1, to make a change to the central bank’s ‘Regulation for Housing Mortgage Financing’ that “housing mortgages issued before October 01, 2020 to have an annual interest of 8 percent, and housing mortgages issued after October 01, 2020 shall have an annual interest of 6 percent.”

Private residential houses in capital city are also added into the terms mentioned in the abovementioned regulation as formerly, private residential houses were only referred as houses located in aimag and soums centers of rural areas, not those in Ulaanbaatar city.

The Bank of Mongolia had reported that, in the first 8 months of 2020, mortgage loans totaling MNT 144.7 billion were issued to 2,057 borrowers.

In addition, Minister of Construction last week informed that no budget had been earmarked for the affordable housing mortgage program for next year’s state budget and around MNT 300 billion is presently accumulated to be spent for the housing mortgage in the future.

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ B-Plan angiography equipment for diagnosis and treatment of neurological and cardiovascular disorders has been installed and introduced in service at the State Central First Hospital (SCFH). Furthermore, a surgical ward of Neurological Clinical Center was newly opened at the hospital yesterday, October 19.

Due to lack of up-to date equipment in our country’s state hospitals, a large number of citizens used to go to overseas for diagnosis and treatment. But now, the Ministry of Health is working towards creating conditions for reducing the number of people to go to foreign countries for diagnosis and treatment and providing quality medical services in the country. The latest B-Plan angiography equipment that introduced newly in the service is one of the works.

During the event, Minister of Health T.Munkhsaikhan said “The health care sector has set a goal to decentralize and provide people with the opportunity to receive quality and accessible medical assistance and service from their affiliated hospitals and rural areas. Moreover, conditions have been created for state hospitals to render hospital aid and services using international standard equipment. The imaging equipment is used in time of neurological and cardiovascular emergencies. Therefore, we plan to introduce the apparatus in the Regional Diagnosis and Treatment Centers in the coming year. Within it, we started training human resources. People in rural areas will be able to receive such kind of aid and services in the rural localities from next year.

Furthermore, by commissioning neurological surgical ward, the hospital has been provided with possibility to render all kinds of neurological and cardiovascular treatment and services besides the State Central Third Hospital.

GENEVA (Reuters) - The value of global trade is set to fall by 7% to 9% in 2020 from the previous year, despite signs of a fragile rebound led by China in the third quarter, a United Nations report said on Wednesday.

No region was spared by an estimated 19% year-on-year plunge in world trade in the second quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.

Global trade recovered somewhat in the third quarter, when it was estimated at about 4.5% less than in the same period a year ago, the agency said in its latest update.

“Trade in home office equipment and medical supplies has increased in Q3, while it further weakened in the automotive and energy sectors,” UNCTAD said. Growth in the textiles sector was also strong.

Its preliminary forecast put year-on-year growth for Q4 2020 at 3% less, but the report said that uncertainties persisted due to how the pandemic would evolve.

If the pandemic resurges in coming months, that could lead to a deteriorating environment for policy-makers and sudden increase in trade restrictive policies, it said.

China’s exports rebounded strongly in the third quarter after falling in the early months of the pandemic, and have posted year-on-year growth rates of nearly 10%, UNCTAD said.

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“Overall, the level of Chinese exports for the first nine months of 2020 was comparable to that of 2019 over the same period,” it said.

Chinese demand for imported products recovered following a decline in Q2 2020, contrary to other major economies, it said.

Earlier this month the World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its forecast for trade in goods due to improvements from June and predicted a drop of 9.2% for 2020.

But it saw a more muted rebound in 2021, with further lockdowns from a second wave of COVID-19 infections posing clear risks.

Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Gareth Jones

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Covid-19 has not stopped China’s super-rich from making more money. Thanks to booming share prices and new stock listings, they now own a combined fortune of $4 trillion – a sum greater than the economy of Germany.

This year has seen the biggest wealth increase in the 22-year history of the Hurun China Rich List, according to researcher Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of Hurun Report and ‘godfather’ of the rating. The list includes the wealthiest people in China – those whose fortunes exceed two billion yuan, or nearly $300 million.

“Stock markets booming and a flurry of new listings have minted five new dollar billionaires in China a week for the past year. The world has never seen this much wealth created in just one year,” Hoogewerf said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Chinese super-rich featured on the list increased their fortunes by $1.5 trillion this year – roughly half the size of Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP). The billionaires now own a combined fortune of $4 trillion, more than the gross domestic product of Germany, the world’s fourth-biggest economy, the report says.

This year’s edition of the China Rich List also highlights that “new economy” sectors like e-commerce and fintech are gaining momentum. Over one third of the wealthiest people in China made money from those industries, while 64 percent generated cash from traditional sectors like manufacturing and real estate.

Founder and former head of online retail giant Alibaba, Jack Ma, retained the top spot for the third consecutive year. His net worth has nearly doubled to $58.8 billion, with his new fintech platform Ant preparing for a blockbuster IPO and Alibaba recording a strong performance.

Two other billionaires – the CEO of internet giant Tencent, Pony Ma, and the founder of popular bottled water brand Nongfu, Zhong Shanshan – also made it into the top three. The trio runs almost neck and neck, the report noted, as Pony Ma’s and Zhong Shanshan’s fortunes amount to $57.4 billion and $53 billion respectively – but Jack Ma took the official top spot on the China Rich List.

The trend of the rich getting richer during the pandemic is not exclusive to China. Many of the world’s wealthiest individuals did extremely well during the crisis, especially those who control the tech sector that flourished amid lockdowns.

Measures including fast-tracking of coal deliveries and extended business hours for Mongolian Customs offices at the Mongolian-Chinese border checkpoints has succeeded in helping to boost Mongolian coal exports in September. Last month, Mongolia exported 4.6 million tonnes of coal in total, up by a notable 17.2% on month or 25.4% on year, according to data from the country’s customs authority.

Still, the country’s total exports during January-September were 30.8% lower on year at 19.8 million tonnes. China, Mongolia’s southern neighbour, remained the destination of most Mongolian coal for export, as 96% of the volume was delivered to China over the past nine months, according to the customs data.

Arashio, a retired sumo wrestler and current stablemaster who hails from China's Inner Mongolia region, has spoken out against a decision by Beijing to install Mandarin Chinese as the language of instruction in his home region's schools.

"Why would they do such a terrible thing? Ninety-nine percent of Mongolians are angry with the measure," Arashio told Kyodo News in a recent interview.

Sumo stablemaster Arashio, who is from China's Inner Mongolia, speaks during an interview in Tokyo on Oct. 13, 2020. The former sumo wrestler whose ring name was Sokokurai criticized the Chinese government after it started requiring schools in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to use textbooks in Chinese from the start of the school year in September instead of Mongolian-language textbooks. (Kyodo)

Arashio's public statement is the first from a Mongolian sumo wrestler, active or retired, about China's so-called "bilingual education" policy that ethnic Mongolians say is endangering their native language.

The 36-year-old stablemaster, whose birth name is Enhetubuxin, is a prominent member of the legion of Mongolian fighters who have dominated sumo in recent years.

Arashio said the Chinese government's efforts to assimilate the nation's ethnic minorities into the dominant Han culture has caused a decrease in the number of children who speak his mother tongue. He is concerned the new directive will result in the language eventually being lost.

Rules that require first-year elementary and middle school classes previously taught in Mongolian to be conducted in Mandarin using nationally certified textbooks came into force Sept. 1.

The Mandarin instruction is expected to start with language and literature then expand to history as well as morality and law classes over the next two years.

Protests have erupted in northern China against the forced move to Mandarin-only education, with ethnic Mongolian students and parents facing off with police after the policy was announced in late August.

About 10,000 people have been taken into police custody, according to the U.S.-based Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center.

The demonstrations spread to other countries, with a large-scale gathering in Tokyo attracting a crowd of 10,000 people. Arashio has been hesitant about participating in protests out of concern about the negative consequences it could have for his relatives in his homeland.

Still, he has been exchanging information with acquaintances via social media, saying that he is unsure about what is happening "and it's really disturbing, I can hardly eat."

Of China's total population of 1.4 billion, over 90 percent are from the dominant Han ethnic group, while there are 5.98 million ethnic Mongolians.

With Han Chinese already making up nearly 80 percent of the population in Inner Mongolia, the province's native Mongolian residents have struggled to maintain their linguistic and cultural identity, one shared by those living in the independent nation of Mongolia to the north of China.

Arashio said Mongolian culture must be preserved in China.

"Mongolians take great pride in their nation and its history. It would be unforgivable to snuff out our culture," he said.

Arashio, known as Sokokurai when he competed in sumo's top division, is the first China-born sumo elder to run his own stable.

The copper price was trading at its highest since June 2018 on Tuesday on hopes of a US stimulus package, worries about supply from top producer Chile and robust Chinese economic growth.

On the Comex market, copper for delivery in December jumped 2.7% to $3.1705 a pound ($6,990 a tonne) in brisk trade, with more than 1.8 billion pounds of the most active contract traded by 1pm in New York.

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Tuesday’s trading brings the bellwether metal’s recovery since the height of the covid-19 induced sell-off, which sent the copper price crashing to below $2.00 a pound, to 63%.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she believed stimulus legislation could be pushed through before the US Presidential election in two weeks’ time.

“It’s Pelosi’s deadline today, so no (trading) position is the best position. I doubt there’ll be deal and the market will correct lower. There’s still a risk of U.S. and European (virus) cases spreading,” a Singapore-based metals trader told Reuters.

“Copper can still hold somewhat, with fundamental support from the Candelaria …and Codelco issues,” the trader added.

Workers at Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, took to the streets on Monday to reject layoffs announced by the company during the pandemic.

Lundin Mining suspended operations at its Candelaria copper mine Tuesday after two of its unions called on their workers to begin strikes.

Industrious China

China consumes more industrial metals than the rest of the world combined and data released Tuesday showed the country’s refined copper output rose 10.3% year-on-year in September.

Daily average output of copper during the month was 30,300 tonnes per day, matching the November 2019 record set before the pandemic took hold.

Smelters’ average daily production zinc and lead has also recovered to the record level attained at the end of 2019.

China’s economy continued its rapid rebound in the third quarter, with activity across a range of sectors. GDP expansion accelerated to 4.9% during Q3, up from 0.7% in the quarter to end-June.

Metal intensive industries showed the strongest growth, with a further pick-up in industry and construction last quarter, from 4.7% year on year to 6%.

In a note, Capital Economics said monthly data show momentum is building going into the final quarter of 2020.

Industrial production came in way above expectations, rising from 5.6% in August to 6.9% in September compared to the same months last year. Fixed investment expanded 0.8% year-to-date, implying that capital spending grew 7.6% in September.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics Senior China Economist, said the economy is becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus and that growth will continue to pick-up in the near-term:

“Fiscal policy is set to remain supportive until at least the start of next year, which should keep activity in industry and construction strong. Meanwhile, tightening labour market conditions and improving consumer confidence mean that the recovery in consumption and services activity probably has further to run.”

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. will cut about 5,300 jobs based in Hong Kong and and close its Cathay Dragon unit as part of a sweeping restructuring of the city’s flag carrier triggered by the hit to air travel from the coronavirus pandemic.

Another 600 Cathay workers outside of Hong Kong may also be affected, and 2,600 currently unfilled positions will be eliminated. The entire reductions of some 8,500 jobs amount to around 24% of Cathay’s headcount, one of the largest hits in aviation globally since the outbreak started.

“The future remains highly uncertain and it is clear that recovery is slow,” Cathay said in Wednesday’s statement. “The management team has concluded that the most optimistic scenario it can responsibly adopt is one in which, for the year 2021, the company will be operating at well under 50% of the passenger capacity it operated in 2019.”

Covid-19 has had a devastating impact on aviation. As many as 46 million jobs are at risk, and airlines alone face about $420 billion in lost revenue this year. Carriers with no domestic market to fall back on, like Cathay and Singapore Airlines Ltd., have been hit especially hard as international travel has ground to a halt. Cathay’s job cuts are among the most severe in the industry, outnumbered by only a handful of others such as Lufthansa and the two big U.S. carriers, American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc.

Shares in Cathay, which have tumbled 41% this year, jumped as much as 6.1% on Wednesday morning. The South China Morning Post reported late Tuesday that Cathay would eliminate 6,000 positions.

Monthly Burn

Cathay’s restructuring is aimed at reducing its monthly cash burn to about HK$500 million ($65 million) from the current HK$1.5 billion to HK$2 billion, the carrier said in Wednesday’s statement. The plan has been approved by the airline’s board and will cost about HK$2.2 billion.

The Hong Kong-based airline also said Dragon’s operations will cease from Wednesday; regulatory approval will be sought for the majority of its routes to be operated by Cathay and Hong Kong Express Airways Ltd.

Closing down Dragon is reasonable given Cathay is facing problems in the mainland market, Luya You, a transportation analyst with Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg Television.

“It’s possible there will be more cuts and more pain in the year ahead,” You said. “Cathay’s forecast moving forward is very optimistic. Any deviation from that scenario does mean there will be more cuts.”

Cathay had already raised HK$39 billion through a recapitalization plan earlier this year, which gave the Hong Kong government a 6.08% stake in the company, and deferred delivery of aircraft to save funds.

Executive pay cuts will continue into 2021 and a third voluntary leave plan for ground staff will be introduced in the first half of next year, Cathay said. There will be no salary increases for 2021 and annual bonuses for this year. Cathay’s cabin and cockpit crew that are based in Hong Kong will be asked to agree to changes in their conditions of service that will match remuneration more closely to productivity and enhance market competitiveness.

Every Possible Action

“We have taken every possible action to avoid job losses up to this point,” Augustus Tang, chief executive officer of Cathay, said in a separate statement. “The global pandemic continues to have a devastating impact on aviation and the hard truth is we must fundamentally restructure the group to survive.”

Cathay expects to see a gradual recovery in capacity in the second half of 2021 after operating below a quarter of its capacity in the first half, should vaccines currently under development prove to be effective and are successfully available to the mass, the company said. It will monitor the situation and adopt measures to survive the pandemic, it said. The International Air Transport Association has said that travel won’t return to levels seen before the pandemic until 2024.

Cathay has “to become leaner and more efficient,” Brendan Sobie an analyst and consultant at Singapore-based Sobie Aviation, said. “The job cuts were inevitable.”

Sobie said that while Cathay has no domestic market to lean on, the airline has enough liquidity to weather the years-long recovery in international travel.

Turning Bullish

Equity analysts have also started turning more bullish on Cathay too. The company’s Hong Kong-listed stock has five buy recommendations, 8 holds and only 3 sells, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Although the stock is down since January, it’s ticked up in recent months, rising 16% from a low hit this year in early August.

Cathay was struggling with losses before the pandemic as anti-government protests in Hong Kong led to a sharp reduction in traffic last year and a change in management. When Covid-19 happened, it put the airline into a survival mode by cutting capacity and offering voluntary no-pay leaves to staff to survive in a challenging environment.

Cathay Dragon operated mainly narrow-body aircraft such as Airbus SE A320s and A321s to destinations across Asia and more than 20 mainland Chinese cities, including the lucrative Beijing and Shanghai routes. The carrier had a fleet of 48 aircraft as of June 30 and firm orders for 16 Airbus A321neo jets, according to Cathay’s website.

— With assistance by Angus Whitley