GENEVA (Reuters) - The value of global trade is set to fall by 7% to 9% in 2020 from the previous year, despite signs of a fragile rebound led by China in the third quarter, a United Nations report said on Wednesday.

No region was spared by an estimated 19% year-on-year plunge in world trade in the second quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.

Global trade recovered somewhat in the third quarter, when it was estimated at about 4.5% less than in the same period a year ago, the agency said in its latest update.

“Trade in home office equipment and medical supplies has increased in Q3, while it further weakened in the automotive and energy sectors,” UNCTAD said. Growth in the textiles sector was also strong.

Its preliminary forecast put year-on-year growth for Q4 2020 at 3% less, but the report said that uncertainties persisted due to how the pandemic would evolve.

If the pandemic resurges in coming months, that could lead to a deteriorating environment for policy-makers and sudden increase in trade restrictive policies, it said.

China’s exports rebounded strongly in the third quarter after falling in the early months of the pandemic, and have posted year-on-year growth rates of nearly 10%, UNCTAD said.

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“Overall, the level of Chinese exports for the first nine months of 2020 was comparable to that of 2019 over the same period,” it said.

Chinese demand for imported products recovered following a decline in Q2 2020, contrary to other major economies, it said.

Earlier this month the World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its forecast for trade in goods due to improvements from June and predicted a drop of 9.2% for 2020.

But it saw a more muted rebound in 2021, with further lockdowns from a second wave of COVID-19 infections posing clear risks.

Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Gareth Jones

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Covid-19 has not stopped China’s super-rich from making more money. Thanks to booming share prices and new stock listings, they now own a combined fortune of $4 trillion – a sum greater than the economy of Germany.

This year has seen the biggest wealth increase in the 22-year history of the Hurun China Rich List, according to researcher Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of Hurun Report and ‘godfather’ of the rating. The list includes the wealthiest people in China – those whose fortunes exceed two billion yuan, or nearly $300 million.

“Stock markets booming and a flurry of new listings have minted five new dollar billionaires in China a week for the past year. The world has never seen this much wealth created in just one year,” Hoogewerf said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Chinese super-rich featured on the list increased their fortunes by $1.5 trillion this year – roughly half the size of Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP). The billionaires now own a combined fortune of $4 trillion, more than the gross domestic product of Germany, the world’s fourth-biggest economy, the report says.

This year’s edition of the China Rich List also highlights that “new economy” sectors like e-commerce and fintech are gaining momentum. Over one third of the wealthiest people in China made money from those industries, while 64 percent generated cash from traditional sectors like manufacturing and real estate.

Founder and former head of online retail giant Alibaba, Jack Ma, retained the top spot for the third consecutive year. His net worth has nearly doubled to $58.8 billion, with his new fintech platform Ant preparing for a blockbuster IPO and Alibaba recording a strong performance.

Two other billionaires – the CEO of internet giant Tencent, Pony Ma, and the founder of popular bottled water brand Nongfu, Zhong Shanshan – also made it into the top three. The trio runs almost neck and neck, the report noted, as Pony Ma’s and Zhong Shanshan’s fortunes amount to $57.4 billion and $53 billion respectively – but Jack Ma took the official top spot on the China Rich List.

The trend of the rich getting richer during the pandemic is not exclusive to China. Many of the world’s wealthiest individuals did extremely well during the crisis, especially those who control the tech sector that flourished amid lockdowns.

Measures including fast-tracking of coal deliveries and extended business hours for Mongolian Customs offices at the Mongolian-Chinese border checkpoints has succeeded in helping to boost Mongolian coal exports in September. Last month, Mongolia exported 4.6 million tonnes of coal in total, up by a notable 17.2% on month or 25.4% on year, according to data from the country’s customs authority.

Still, the country’s total exports during January-September were 30.8% lower on year at 19.8 million tonnes. China, Mongolia’s southern neighbour, remained the destination of most Mongolian coal for export, as 96% of the volume was delivered to China over the past nine months, according to the customs data.

Arashio, a retired sumo wrestler and current stablemaster who hails from China's Inner Mongolia region, has spoken out against a decision by Beijing to install Mandarin Chinese as the language of instruction in his home region's schools.

"Why would they do such a terrible thing? Ninety-nine percent of Mongolians are angry with the measure," Arashio told Kyodo News in a recent interview.

Sumo stablemaster Arashio, who is from China's Inner Mongolia, speaks during an interview in Tokyo on Oct. 13, 2020. The former sumo wrestler whose ring name was Sokokurai criticized the Chinese government after it started requiring schools in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to use textbooks in Chinese from the start of the school year in September instead of Mongolian-language textbooks. (Kyodo)

Arashio's public statement is the first from a Mongolian sumo wrestler, active or retired, about China's so-called "bilingual education" policy that ethnic Mongolians say is endangering their native language.

The 36-year-old stablemaster, whose birth name is Enhetubuxin, is a prominent member of the legion of Mongolian fighters who have dominated sumo in recent years.

Arashio said the Chinese government's efforts to assimilate the nation's ethnic minorities into the dominant Han culture has caused a decrease in the number of children who speak his mother tongue. He is concerned the new directive will result in the language eventually being lost.

Rules that require first-year elementary and middle school classes previously taught in Mongolian to be conducted in Mandarin using nationally certified textbooks came into force Sept. 1.

The Mandarin instruction is expected to start with language and literature then expand to history as well as morality and law classes over the next two years.

Protests have erupted in northern China against the forced move to Mandarin-only education, with ethnic Mongolian students and parents facing off with police after the policy was announced in late August.

About 10,000 people have been taken into police custody, according to the U.S.-based Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center.

The demonstrations spread to other countries, with a large-scale gathering in Tokyo attracting a crowd of 10,000 people. Arashio has been hesitant about participating in protests out of concern about the negative consequences it could have for his relatives in his homeland.

Still, he has been exchanging information with acquaintances via social media, saying that he is unsure about what is happening "and it's really disturbing, I can hardly eat."

Of China's total population of 1.4 billion, over 90 percent are from the dominant Han ethnic group, while there are 5.98 million ethnic Mongolians.

With Han Chinese already making up nearly 80 percent of the population in Inner Mongolia, the province's native Mongolian residents have struggled to maintain their linguistic and cultural identity, one shared by those living in the independent nation of Mongolia to the north of China.

Arashio said Mongolian culture must be preserved in China.

"Mongolians take great pride in their nation and its history. It would be unforgivable to snuff out our culture," he said.

Arashio, known as Sokokurai when he competed in sumo's top division, is the first China-born sumo elder to run his own stable.

The copper price was trading at its highest since June 2018 on Tuesday on hopes of a US stimulus package, worries about supply from top producer Chile and robust Chinese economic growth.

On the Comex market, copper for delivery in December jumped 2.7% to $3.1705 a pound ($6,990 a tonne) in brisk trade, with more than 1.8 billion pounds of the most active contract traded by 1pm in New York.

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Tuesday’s trading brings the bellwether metal’s recovery since the height of the covid-19 induced sell-off, which sent the copper price crashing to below $2.00 a pound, to 63%.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she believed stimulus legislation could be pushed through before the US Presidential election in two weeks’ time.

“It’s Pelosi’s deadline today, so no (trading) position is the best position. I doubt there’ll be deal and the market will correct lower. There’s still a risk of U.S. and European (virus) cases spreading,” a Singapore-based metals trader told Reuters.

“Copper can still hold somewhat, with fundamental support from the Candelaria …and Codelco issues,” the trader added.

Workers at Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, took to the streets on Monday to reject layoffs announced by the company during the pandemic.

Lundin Mining suspended operations at its Candelaria copper mine Tuesday after two of its unions called on their workers to begin strikes.

Industrious China

China consumes more industrial metals than the rest of the world combined and data released Tuesday showed the country’s refined copper output rose 10.3% year-on-year in September.

Daily average output of copper during the month was 30,300 tonnes per day, matching the November 2019 record set before the pandemic took hold.

Smelters’ average daily production zinc and lead has also recovered to the record level attained at the end of 2019.

China’s economy continued its rapid rebound in the third quarter, with activity across a range of sectors. GDP expansion accelerated to 4.9% during Q3, up from 0.7% in the quarter to end-June.

Metal intensive industries showed the strongest growth, with a further pick-up in industry and construction last quarter, from 4.7% year on year to 6%.

In a note, Capital Economics said monthly data show momentum is building going into the final quarter of 2020.

Industrial production came in way above expectations, rising from 5.6% in August to 6.9% in September compared to the same months last year. Fixed investment expanded 0.8% year-to-date, implying that capital spending grew 7.6% in September.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics Senior China Economist, said the economy is becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus and that growth will continue to pick-up in the near-term:

“Fiscal policy is set to remain supportive until at least the start of next year, which should keep activity in industry and construction strong. Meanwhile, tightening labour market conditions and improving consumer confidence mean that the recovery in consumption and services activity probably has further to run.”

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. will cut about 5,300 jobs based in Hong Kong and and close its Cathay Dragon unit as part of a sweeping restructuring of the city’s flag carrier triggered by the hit to air travel from the coronavirus pandemic.

Another 600 Cathay workers outside of Hong Kong may also be affected, and 2,600 currently unfilled positions will be eliminated. The entire reductions of some 8,500 jobs amount to around 24% of Cathay’s headcount, one of the largest hits in aviation globally since the outbreak started.

“The future remains highly uncertain and it is clear that recovery is slow,” Cathay said in Wednesday’s statement. “The management team has concluded that the most optimistic scenario it can responsibly adopt is one in which, for the year 2021, the company will be operating at well under 50% of the passenger capacity it operated in 2019.”

Covid-19 has had a devastating impact on aviation. As many as 46 million jobs are at risk, and airlines alone face about $420 billion in lost revenue this year. Carriers with no domestic market to fall back on, like Cathay and Singapore Airlines Ltd., have been hit especially hard as international travel has ground to a halt. Cathay’s job cuts are among the most severe in the industry, outnumbered by only a handful of others such as Lufthansa and the two big U.S. carriers, American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc.

Shares in Cathay, which have tumbled 41% this year, jumped as much as 6.1% on Wednesday morning. The South China Morning Post reported late Tuesday that Cathay would eliminate 6,000 positions.

Monthly Burn

Cathay’s restructuring is aimed at reducing its monthly cash burn to about HK$500 million ($65 million) from the current HK$1.5 billion to HK$2 billion, the carrier said in Wednesday’s statement. The plan has been approved by the airline’s board and will cost about HK$2.2 billion.

The Hong Kong-based airline also said Dragon’s operations will cease from Wednesday; regulatory approval will be sought for the majority of its routes to be operated by Cathay and Hong Kong Express Airways Ltd.

Closing down Dragon is reasonable given Cathay is facing problems in the mainland market, Luya You, a transportation analyst with Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg Television.

“It’s possible there will be more cuts and more pain in the year ahead,” You said. “Cathay’s forecast moving forward is very optimistic. Any deviation from that scenario does mean there will be more cuts.”

Cathay had already raised HK$39 billion through a recapitalization plan earlier this year, which gave the Hong Kong government a 6.08% stake in the company, and deferred delivery of aircraft to save funds.

Executive pay cuts will continue into 2021 and a third voluntary leave plan for ground staff will be introduced in the first half of next year, Cathay said. There will be no salary increases for 2021 and annual bonuses for this year. Cathay’s cabin and cockpit crew that are based in Hong Kong will be asked to agree to changes in their conditions of service that will match remuneration more closely to productivity and enhance market competitiveness.

Every Possible Action

“We have taken every possible action to avoid job losses up to this point,” Augustus Tang, chief executive officer of Cathay, said in a separate statement. “The global pandemic continues to have a devastating impact on aviation and the hard truth is we must fundamentally restructure the group to survive.”

Cathay expects to see a gradual recovery in capacity in the second half of 2021 after operating below a quarter of its capacity in the first half, should vaccines currently under development prove to be effective and are successfully available to the mass, the company said. It will monitor the situation and adopt measures to survive the pandemic, it said. The International Air Transport Association has said that travel won’t return to levels seen before the pandemic until 2024.

Cathay has “to become leaner and more efficient,” Brendan Sobie an analyst and consultant at Singapore-based Sobie Aviation, said. “The job cuts were inevitable.”

Sobie said that while Cathay has no domestic market to lean on, the airline has enough liquidity to weather the years-long recovery in international travel.

Turning Bullish

Equity analysts have also started turning more bullish on Cathay too. The company’s Hong Kong-listed stock has five buy recommendations, 8 holds and only 3 sells, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Although the stock is down since January, it’s ticked up in recent months, rising 16% from a low hit this year in early August.

Cathay was struggling with losses before the pandemic as anti-government protests in Hong Kong led to a sharp reduction in traffic last year and a change in management. When Covid-19 happened, it put the airline into a survival mode by cutting capacity and offering voluntary no-pay leaves to staff to survive in a challenging environment.

Cathay Dragon operated mainly narrow-body aircraft such as Airbus SE A320s and A321s to destinations across Asia and more than 20 mainland Chinese cities, including the lucrative Beijing and Shanghai routes. The carrier had a fleet of 48 aircraft as of June 30 and firm orders for 16 Airbus A321neo jets, according to Cathay’s website.

— With assistance by Angus Whitley

The copper price was once again within sight of more than two-year highs on Monday and nickel reached an 11-month peak after Chinese data showed growth in the world’s second-largest economy is gathering momentum.

On the Comex market, copper for delivery in December added over 1% to $3.1080 a pound ($6,850 a tonne) in brisk trade, with more than 1.2 billion pounds of the most active contract traded by early afternoon in New York.

Monday’s trading brings the bellwether metal within sight of levels last seen in June 2018 and brings the recovery since the height of the covid-19 induced sell-off, which sent the copper price crashing to below $2.00 a pound, to 57%.

The robust numbers from China, which consumes more industrial metals than the rest of the world combined, also lifted nickel prices, which hit $15,815 a tonne in London, the highest since November 2019.

Data released overnight showed China’s economy continued its rapid rebound in the third quarter, with activity across a range of sectors. GDP expansion accelerated to 4.9% during Q3, up from 0.7% in the quarter to end-June.

Metal intensive industries showed the strongest growth, with a further pick-up in industry and construction last quarter, from 4.7% year on year to 6%.

In a note, Capital Economics says monthly data show momentum is building going into the final quarter of 2020.

Industrial production came in way above expectations, rising from 5.6% in August to 6.9% in September compared to the same months last year. Fixed investment expanded 0.8% year-to-date, implying that capital spending grew 7.6% in September.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics Senior China Economist, says the economy is becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus and that growth will continue to pick-up in the near-term:

“Fiscal policy is set to remain supportive until at least the start of next year, which should keep activity in industry and construction strong. Meanwhile, tightening labour market conditions and improving consumer confidence mean that the recovery in consumption and services activity probably has further to run.”

Russia’s Minister of Energy Alexander Novak has invited fellow BRICS member countries to participate in Russia’s energy development projects in the Arctic.

Novak said hydrocarbon reserves in the Russian Arctic are estimated at 7.33 billion metric tons of oil and 50.45 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. That is 24.7 percent and 72.1 percent of Russia’s total recoverable reserves, respectively.

According to Novak, who held a video conference meeting with the BRICS ministers of energy last week, Russia ranks first in the world in terms of proven reserves. Last year, the country became one of the top five global LNG producers, and by 2035 Russia is expected to increase production from the current 29 million to 140 million metric tons of LNG per year.

The Russian energy minister said that natural gas will be one of the most promising and environmentally friendly hydrocarbons of the 21st century and that in the foreseeable future, conventional energy sources will continue to account for the most significant part of the global energy balance.

“According to the BRICS Energy Research Cooperation Platform forecast, by 2040, the share of fossil energy sources will account for more than 70 percent of our countries’ energy balance,” he said.

“I invite our BRICS partners to participate in the implementation of joint oil and gas projects in the Arctic. We are already cooperating with non-Arctic states such as Japan, China and France,” he added.

He explained that Arctic hydrocarbons have a significant competitive advantage due to the convenience of the Northern Sea Route as the shortest sea route to bring Arctic hydrocarbons to consumers. According to Novak, four out of eight new liquefaction plants planned in Russia will be located in the Arctic (Obsky LNG, Arctic LNG, Arctic LNG 2 and Arctic LNG 3). Two will be built in Russia’s Far East (Far East LNG and Vladivostok LNG), and another two on the Baltic Sea coast (Baltic Chemical Complex and LNG Portovaya).

This article highlights some of the key legal issues commonly associated with the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Mongolia. These issues form part of any due diligence exercise conducted by an investor proposing to acquire mining assets or an interest in a mining project.

This article looks at mining investment, the legal system applicable to mining, various mining laws, mineral ownership in, different types of mining tenements available, rights of miners to access land against landowners' rights, imposition of royalties and other taxes by the various levels of government, and rules and restrictions concerning foreign investment in Mongolia.

To compare answers across multiple jurisdictions, visit the energy and natural resources Mining Country Q&A tool.

This article is part of the global guide to energy and natural resources. For a full list of content visit www.practicallaw.com/energy-guide.

Overview

1. What are the recent developments in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in your jurisdiction?

The mining sector is one of the key drivers of export revenue for Mongolia and is often referred to as the "engine of the economy". With an abundance of mineral resources and largely unexplored territory, Mongolia is potentially an attractive destination for foreign investors interested in exploration and mine development. The country has significant reserves of coal, copper, gold, silver, iron ore, tungsten, uranium and rare earth metals.

Given the importance of the minerals sector, Mongolia has been making on-going efforts to modify its legal environment and to align it more closely with global standards. In November 2017, the Mongolian Parliament amended certain articles of the Minerals Law, enacted on 8 July 2006 (Minerals Law). The amendments changed the mechanism for obtaining new exploration licences, moving to an open tendering system. The amendments also modified the procedures involved in applying for and granting a licence.

On 9 and 10 November 2017, Parliament enacted several laws impacting on the tax treatment for the transfer of mineral licences and land rights. Under the amendments to the Minerals Law, a party transferring its mineral licence must submit information regarding the price and other related information to the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority (MRPAM). The former Law of Mongolia on Corporate Income Tax, enacted on 16 June 2006 (2006 CIT Law) was amended to include the “beneficial holder” term which was later changed to “beneficial owner” in 2018 (as defined under the Law of Mongolia on Combatting against Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing dated 31 May 2013).

On 22 March 2019, Parliament revised the taxation laws including the General Taxation Law (GTL) and Corporate Income Tax Law (CIT Law), each of which became effective from 1 January 2020. The definition of beneficial holder has been separately introduced in the GTL as a person (that is, an individual, legal entity or organisation) that:

Holds more than 30% of the shares or participation rights, or exercises more than 30% of the voting rights.

Is entitled to receive dividends from a legal entity holding exploration or mining licenses for minerals, petroleum, radioactive minerals, or land possession and use rights (either directly itself or indirectly through one or more levels of an ownership chain).

Transactions involving a full or partial disposal of shares, voting and participation rights by a beneficial holder (whether onshore or offshore) in a Mongolian legal entity holding exploration or mining licences for minerals, radioactive minerals and petroleum, and land possession and use rights is considered as a "sale of rights" and is subject to income tax at the rate of 10% of the value of the mineral licence in lieu of the previous 30% rate. The income earned by the beneficial holder from its sale of shares is deemed to be taxable income of the Mongolian legal entity from sale of rights, rather than withholding tax (unlike under the 2006 CIT Law).

The sale of shares by non-beneficial holders is subject to a 10% income tax based on the value of the sale price of the shares. Any tax evasion, misreporting of income from the sale of rights, failure to provide documents to be used for valuation or failure to notify changes of beneficial owner can provide grounds for the authorities to terminate the mineral licence.

On 26 March 2019, Parliament enacted an amendment to increase the minimum royalty payment for gold from 2.5% to 5% of the sales value (see Question 11).

On 30 October 2019, the Constitutional Court of Mongolia (Constitutional Court) made a final ruling on Article 47 of the Minerals Law relating to a concern around a double-charging of royalty payments. On 22 November 2019, the Parliament re-amended Article 47 of the Minerals Law (Latest Amendment) to eliminate the conflicting wording in the 2019 March Amendment in relation to potential double-charging of royalties, first from the mining licence holders, and then from entities that do not hold mining licences but purchase minerals from the mining license holders and resell to third parties directly or upon processing. The Latest Amendment entered into force on 25 November 2019. The rates of, and procedures applied to, royalty payments have not been affected by the Latest Amendment.

Please see the full article on the link https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-017-7372?__lrTS=20201019112148965&transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true

As the world of medical science progressed, infant mortality has nearly gone extinct in the developed world. In the meanwhile, children in developing countries do not grow up in properly sanitized environments. In rural Mongolia, toddlers sit and crawl on grass and dirt outside their ger dwellings, playing house with the unique shaped stones that they have collected from river banks. This somewhat carefree method of raising children is criticized by the urban households and modern science.

In the meanwhile, children in high income urban areas grow up in squeaky clean polished households that are heavily sanitized. Quotes that encourage such behaviour have become an everyday sighting in public service announcements, cartoons for toddlers, and in advertising of cleaning products. Another popular saying goes “One who maintains cleanliness keeps away diseases.” Evidently, cleanliness did cause the decline of bacterial infestations and other diseases that enter the immune system.

Too much cleanliness, and ultra-sanitation however, are causing a lack of exposure to allergens, bacteria, and viruses in the developed world. Thus, normal development of the immune system is disrupted in children of young age. “A child’s immune system needs education, just like any other organ of the human body,” says Erika von Mutius, a pediatric allergist at the University of Munich. An introduction of sorts to microbes and bacteria to children at a young age educates the immune system. Without this essential development, the immune system becomes likely to attack the wrong target- itself. This in return becomes a cause for autoimmune diseases.

Though there is active debate among scientists, studies show that allergy and asthma are more likely to occur in children in wealthier households. Infants growing up with exposure to certain levels of bacteria are less likely to develop wheezing, and asthma by the age of three. This would mean that to some extent the Mongolian nomadic children playing with dirt are healthier than their counterparts in overly sanitized households.

Similar results are present in mice as well. Rodents that were raised in a controlled sterile environment were prone to cultivate colitis, and asthma among other autoimmune diseases. The chemical called triclosan is used in antibacterial soap and it causes allergies and hay fever. Another interesting controlled study is that infants born to mothers who were given drugs to treat parasitic worm infections during pregnancy resulted in higher rates of eczema and asthma in the child.

Such a study is yet to be conducted in Mongolia’s case. However, experts, and researchers have been observing this for the past few decades. In the 1980’s British epidemiologist David Strachan studied childhood allergies in East and West Germany. Children from less wealthy and more polluted cities of East Germany had exponentially low rates of hay fever, asthma as opposed to the richer cities of West Germany.

Strachan also found that the prevalence of such auto-immune diseases were lower in children that went to daycares as they would be exchanging healthy bacteria with other children. Additionally, children who grew up with more siblings also had lower chances of developing diseases of the same sort due to the same reason.

Feasibility of such a study would be difficult to evaluate for Mongolia’s case. The prevalence of childhood asthma in Ulaanbaatar is high even when compared to Asia-Pacific countries according to ISAAC. As a result of the severe air-pollution levels and the draft-free infrastructures of apartments in Ulaanbaatar, there are obstacles to accurately accumulating the results. In retrospect, kids in rural Mongolia growing up around livestock have lower rates of allergies and asthma.

What does this mean for us?

By no means does this mean that people should stop cleaning their homes or washing themselves. For the majority of the studies, it was found that bacterial exposure is helpful during childhood, not in adulthood. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, the headlines are buzzing about the worldwide shortage of sanitizers, especially now that it has been proven that the virus can stay on hard surfaces for days.

Depending on how the virus is managed, the usage of antibacterials among households will be set. At this point, even if the hygiene hypothesis is true, parents would rather risk their children developing allergies and auto-immune diseases as opposed to the slightest chance of them getting the coronavirus. It is the lesser of two evil