Central banks search for answers to virus impact www.bloomberg.com

Global central bankers enter a new week under fresh pressure to outline the next steps in their battle to address the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

Policymakers got a wake-up call last week as the Federal Reserve’s emergency interest rate cut did little restore confidence, leaving officials hunting for innovative ways to add stimulus that can have a more targeted effect on the disruption caused by the virus.

The first institution to have grapple with that conundrum this week is the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday. While Christine Lagarde has less room to act than the Fed, investors nonetheless see a good chance of a rate cut, while economists are eyeing up ways the institution could adopt to funnel money into the economy.

“The Fed’s attempt at calming markets didn’t have the desired effect, meaning central banks need to weigh their limited options carefully,” according to Bloomberg Economics’ Jamie Rush. “The ECB’s problem is that inaction would tighten financial conditions,” said Rush, who predicts policymakers in Frankfurt will reduce the deposit rate by 10 basis point and launch a new targeted refinancing operation.

Elsewhere, investors will be on the lookout for clues for how global central banks and governments will fine-tune their actions. The U.K. government will unveil its response at Wednesday’s budget, with a package of fiscal measures that could be supplemented by Bank of England support.

Here’s what happened last week and below is our weekly wrap of what else is going on in the world economy this week.

Asia
China’s economic data this week will provide a glimpse of how badly the virus has hurt the real economy. Chinese numbers published Saturday showed exports fell more than expected in the first two months of this year and inflation data due Tuesday will offer more insight on supply disruptions, while Taiwan’s trade figures on Monday will show the impact on supply chains.

Japan releases revised estimates for GDP on Monday and central bank officials in Australia and New Zealand will give speeches outlining what the virus outbreak means for monetary policy. India publishes inflation data later in the week, which will guide calls for a possible interest rate cut in coming months.

Europe, Middle East and Africa
The U.K. is set to deliver its first response to the economic threat posed by the outbreak on Wednesday when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak outlines the budget. Investors expect the Bank of England to follow with an interest-rate cut later this month.

Ukraine’s central bank is set to cut interest rates, while Serbia is likely to pause for a fourth meeting. Mauritius’s central bank also holds its monetary policy committee meeting, its first after its top management was changed and a governor was appointed.

On the data front, euro-area industrial production numbers will show the state of play in January just before China became engulfed by the virus outbreak that has since spread across the globe. Israel expects to confirm the economy ended last year on an upswing when it releases GDP data for the fourth quarter. And in South Africa, a quarterly business confidence index will probably show sentiment in the economy has deteriorated even further in the first three months of the year.

U.S.
The Federal Reserve is in blackout next week with no scheduled speeches just as investor fears over spreading coronavirus intensify bets that the central bank will cut rates again at its meeting March 17-18. Traders will also be watching for next week’s economic data including job claims, trade and consumer sentiment data to gauge the impact of the health crisis on the economy.

Latin America
On Monday, data in Mexico will likely show inflation last month accelerated further above target, raising the odds that policymakers will keep their key rate unchanged at their March 26 meeting.

In Brazil, Wednesday’s consumer price report should show inflation in February slowed below the year-end target of 4%. The report takes on added significance after policymakers last week said the coronavirus outbreak poses a bigger risk of stalling the economy than reigniting inflation, suggesting they won’t end Brazil’s record easing cycle when they meet next week. Peru’s central bank will probably cut rates when it meets on Thursday.

(Reporting by David Goodman with assistance from Alaa Shahine, Margaret Collins, Nasreen Seria, Rene Vollgraaff and Robert Jameson).

UN Mongolia statement on the occasion of International Women’s Day 2020 www.montsame.mn

Women in Mongolia and across the world are entitled to live in dignity, in freedom and without discrimination. Gender equality, a human right, plays a crucial role in sustainable development, peace and security.

United Nations in Mongolia welcomes with appreciation the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to realize women’s rights progressively. Over the years we have witnessed several progresses to celebrate: policy and legal frameworks with respect to gender equality have been improved and enforced to eliminate gender-based discrimination and violence and to end sexual harassment at workplace.

The United Nations also welcomes the country’s effort to revise labor legislation to align with international labor standards including equal pay for work of equal value, non-discrimination in work and occupation and prohibition of all types harassment and abuse at workplace.

Mongolia is also one of 9 countries that successfully met targets to reduce Maternal Mortality by 2/3.

The International Women’s Day theme for 2020: “I am Generation Equality: Realizing Women's Rights” aims to bring together people of every gender, age, ethnicity, race, religion and country, to drive actions that will create the gender-equal world we all deserve.

As the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said, “Only through the equal participation of women can we benefit from the intelligence, experience and insights of all of humanity. Women’s equal participation is vital to stability, helps prevent conflict, and promotes sustainable, inclusive development. Gender equality is the prerequisite for a better world,”

While the Government of Mongolia have taken significant steps towards gender equality, women in Mongolia are still underrepresented at policy-making level, suffer from gender-based violence and often lack the facilities and services such as alternative childcare, flexible working culture that enables equal participation in society.

On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Platform for Action, the United Nations in Mongolia calls upon the Government of Mongolia and other actors of the society to invest further in the great potential of the women to boost economic and social development of the country.

We need to ensure women’s and girls’ equal representation by embedding gender parity in legal frameworks, strengthen implementation mechanisms in eliminating gender-based violence and changing individual behaviors through various interventions, create workplace and school culture that allow women’s equal participation, protect women defenders who are subject to risks and often targeted for gender-specific threats and gender-specific violence.

Promoting policies for advancing gender equality and achieving justice by empowering rural women is also crucial in reducing growing gender imbalance in rural areas. More efforts then should be directed towards protecting migrant women because mobility is often associated with increased vulnerability and greater exposure to risks like human trafficking.

Moreover, with adoption of ILO Violence and Harassment Convention, 2019 (No.190), the United Nations in Mongolia calls for the Government to ratify the convention and approve the revision of labor law to ensure that everyone has the right to a world of work free from violence and harassment.

The United Nations in Mongolia, through its designated agencies, commit to continue our support, together with our partners, to strengthen legal frameworks and institutions, to improve services for the needed, and to address the root causes of violence and human rights violations by challenging social norms and behaviors and tackling the wider gender inequalities.

We renew our commitment to advancing gender equality and enhance women’s ability to participate and lead their lives without any fear or need and realize their dream in just, fair and safe society with the greatest capabilities.

UN Mongolia

China reports zero locally transmitted coronavirus cases outside Hubei www.reuters.com

Khan Bank becomes the first bank in Mongolia to use the SWIFT gpi for international payments www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ SWIFT’s global payment innovation (SWIFT gpi), was first launched at the beginning of 2017 to become the new standard in global payments and has been adopted by around 4,000 financial institutions around the world, including 60 top global banking groups.

How will the new World Bank CPF for Mongolia address civil society's concerns? www.bankinformationcenter.org

The World Bank is currently in the process of drafting a new Country Partnership Framework for Mongolia, which will guide the Bank's strategy in Mongolia during 2020 - 2024. Mongolian civil society has raised concerns, however, that the strategy fails to incorporate lessons learned from other World Bank Group-financed projects in Mongolia, including the Oyu Tolgoi mine and the Bank's financing of feasibility studies for several new mining and associated infrastructure projects.

Coal export through Zamyn-Uud checkpoint resumed www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. Beginning from March 4, heavy trucks loading coal started crossing the border through Zamyn-Uud border checkpoint after being fully decontaminated. So far, 1500 tons of coal have been exported. Since March 1, a total of 25 thousand tons of coal has been exported by railway, reported the Mongolian Customs General Administration.

Mongolia named as one of 16 countries suitable for traveling without coronavirus www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. ‘The Telegraph’ has published a list of 16 beautiful countries that are suitable to travel, with no confirmed cases of the coronavirus infection. The list included the following countries: Bolivia, Namibia, Cuba, Turkey, Mongolia, Madagascar, Peru, the Maldives, Malta, Laos, Botswana, South Africa, Uzbekistan, Columbia, Hungary, and Tanzania.

Chinese ambassador hails Mongolia's support for fight against COVID-19 www.xinhuanet.com

ULAN BATOR, March 5 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Ambassador to Mongolia Chai Wenrui on Thursday expressed appreciation for the Mongolian government and its people's support for China's fight against COVID-19.

Cashmere and climate change threaten nomadic life www.bbc.com

Mongolia's vast grasslands cover about three-quarters of the country, where nomadic herdsmen have maintained traditions stretching back centuries. But this world is changing - fast.

About 70% of this once verdant land has now been damaged, mostly due to overgrazing. The main culprit is the country's estimated 27 million cashmere goats, which are farmed for their highly-prized wool.

Unlike the country's 31 million sheep, the goats dig out and eat the roots of the grass, making re-growth much harder.

Add climate change on top, and the United Nations warns that a quarter of Mongolia's grasslands have now turned to desert. The nation is, in fact, particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, with a 2C increase over the past 70 years, higher than the world average.

"When I was child, I vividly remember the grasses would grow taller, and we would receive more rain," says Batmunkh, a herder in the Dornod province. He looks after 1,000 animals, 300 of which are cashmere goats.

The dilemma for Mongolia is that with global demand for cashmere continuing to rise strongly, how can the country earn more money from selling it, at the same time as reducing the industry's environmental impact?

Since Mongolia's peaceful transition from communism to democracy in 1990, the number of goats in the country have soared. Between 1999 and 2019 numbers increased almost fourfold from seven million to today's 27 million.

They are looked after by 1.2 million nomadic herders, some 40% of the country's population.

Once a rare luxury, fashion items made from cashmere are now readily available from most High Street and online fashion retailers in the UK, US and other developed countries. With global prices having risen more than 60% since the 1980s, the world cashmere clothing market was valued at $2.5bn (£2bn) in 2018, according to a UN report. This is projected to reach $3.5bn by the end of 2025.

Mongolia is the world's second-largest producer of raw cashmere after China, accounting for approximately a fifth of global supply. It is the country's third-largest export after copper and gold, and the total amount produced has risen sharply in recent years.

But while the country's cashmere is considered by many people to be the highest quality, much of it ends up in China where it is blended with Chinese wool. For a jumper, about four goats are needed, and last year's average price was 130,000 Mongolian tugriks ($47; £36) per kilo.

"It is very unfortunate that our own cashmere cannot be proudly sold on a global market as Mongolian cashmere," says Batmunkh. "Whatever we produce is being mixed up in China with other cashmere."

About 90% of Mongolian raw cashmere production is currently sold to Chinese brokers, who usually sell on to Chinese-owned processing companies in Mongolia, says Zara Morris-Trainor, an associate consultant at the Sustainable Fibre Alliance. The organisation works with brands such as Burberry, J Crew and M&S.

These Chinese processing companies typically wash and scour the raw cashmere, before exporting it to China for further processing and production of garments.

The hope of both the Mongolian government and the UN is that overgrazing can be reduced, and prices increased, by two initiatives. The first is by introducing a new system of traceability, and the second is by opening more plants in Ulaanbaatar that can do the entire processing work, so that the finished wool can be sold for a "made in Mongolia" premium.

To better ensure traceability, Batmunkh is now involved in a pilot initiative that uses blockchain technology - made famous as the tech behind the cryptocurrency bitcoin - to follow cashmere from the goats to new processing facilities in the capital, Ulaanbaatar.

Herders use a mobile phone app to register cashmere bales and attach a tracking tag.

The app was created by Toronto-based Convergence Tech, which is working with the UN in three provinces in north-east Mongolia. The idea is to limit production from overgrazed areas.

Chami Akeemana, the firm's chief executive, hopes it will provide traceability and authenticity. "There is very little transparency at present because of the chaos of the raw materials market, which is clouded by middlemen and market aggregators," he says.

However, Dr Troy Sternberg, an expert on Mongolia at Oxford University's School of Geography and the Environment, urges caution. He says that the tagging does not cover the whole supply, but typically only up to the first processing facility. Nor does he rule out people just removing tags and relabeling the cashmere.

He says it would be helpful if the big fashion brands got behind promoting more environmentally friendly cashmere.

"It'll be a challenge to roll out the tags over such a vast country," says Dr Sternberg. "But if brands worked harder to establish a Mongolian quality cashmere, like coffee sourcing in Colombia, that could really impact the herders and the grasslands."

Regarding building more cashmere processing plants in Ulaanbaatar, the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry is now working with private sector partners.

Batmunkh is hoping that the two initiatives will be successful, despite the background problem of climate change.

"I do find the climate changing," he says. "And as nomads we heavily depend on nature."

The current lack of grass means that he has to buy more fodder for his goats, and overall he remains fearful for the long term future of the industry in Mongolia. The hotter weather also means that the goats produce wool of a lesser quality, as they grow fewer of the tightly packed fine fibres needed for them to keep warm during the winter months.

"I try to send all my kids to school with the money I make from selling cashmere," he says, which would give them a route out of the nomadic life.

"I am quite torn to think that our knowledge and heritage from our ancestors will die with us. On the other hand, I don't want to leave my children to risks and uncertainties."

Inflation expectations remain positive www.zgm.mn

According to the inflation expectation survey, households expected inflation to be 5.6 percent, business people 4.4 percent and financial experts anticipated it to be 7.8 percent in the first quarter. Over 57 percent of the participants and 50 percent of entrepreneurs believe that inflation is lower than the 8 percent target. The Bank of Mongolia (BoM) conducts the survey among entrepreneurs, financial analysts, and households quarterly based on international experiences. The National Statistics Office (NSO) announced that inflation stands at 5.6 percent in its latest report. The economic index has been increased comparably from a year earlier. The majority of citizens expect the economic conditions to be better within the next 12 months. In other words, the inflation expectation survey indicated that people have affirmative hope for the economy. Household finance is expected to rise in the upcoming year. However, the Mongolian tugrik rate against the U.S dollar has adversely affected the household’s living expenses. Mongolia’s economy grew by 5.1 percent last year. Mining and public service sectors were have mainly played a key role in growth. Despite the fact, coal export, and trade have been restricted at the beginning of this year. Coal concentrate which accounts for 40 percent of total mining revenue was sold at MNT 5,700 per tons, dropped by 20 percent year on year. Moreover, the Extended Fund Facility program (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will expire in May and the parliamentary election will be held in June. It is increasing economic risks and uncertainty. Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank announced to review Mongolia’s economic expectations. The government and related officials are predicting the economy to soar based on the research.