Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS
Banking on action: How ADB achieved 2020 climate finance milestone one year ahead of time www.montsame.mn
By ADB President Mr. Takehiko Nakao
As they extend their power grids, build more roads and bigger cities, and cultivate forestland, developing countries in Asia and the Pacific are increasingly contributing to the global climate change problem. Two of the top three emitters of greenhouse gases are developing countries in Asia—the People’s Republic of China and India. At the same time, five Asian developing countries are among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. Across the region, livelihoods and economic growth are increasingly exposed to climate change impacts and disaster risk. Clearly, Asia and the Pacific must play a strong role in efforts to address climate change.
As the region’s development bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to remaining the partner of choice for climate action by our developing member countries. In 2015, as world leaders gathered in New York to launch the Sustainable Development Goals, ADB made a bold announcement—a commitment to double our climate investment to $6 billion annually by the end of 2020.
Coinciding with the call for action at COP25, the United Nations’ Conference on Climate Change, ADB has proudly reached this achievement one year ahead of time. ADB’s climate-related financing for 2019 comprises $1.4 billion for financing adaptation and $4.8 billion for mitigating climate change.
The feat is the result of a singular focus to integrate climate actions into our entire operations. ADB has introduced climate risk screening of our project portfolio, undertaken diagnostics on the critical infrastructure at risk in the region, and introduced new financing instruments such as contingent disaster risk financing for financial resilience. ADB is strengthening its investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, sustainable transport and urban development, and climate smart agriculture. This has been accompanied by actions to enhance the transparency of our climate operations by publicly disclosing project-level information of our climate portfolio and enhancing capacity and technical assistance for delivery. The spirit of One ADB has underpinned this achievement, with the collaboration of our sovereign and non-sovereign operations and knowledge departments steering us toward this target. One example of the many that illustrates this is the Pacific Renewable Energy Program, which is providing an innovative blend of loans, guarantees, and letters of credit to encourage private sector investments in renewable energy. ADB’s treasury department also contributed to the endeavor by issuing green bonds amounting to $5 billion as an added financing mechanism.
In addition to scaling up its own climate financing, ADB has been working on new and innovative co-financing opportunities with public and private partners. For example. ADB has mobilized concessional financing from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for nine projects worth a total of $473 million in grants and concessional financing.
Building on the momentum of our climate finance milestone, ADB is pursuing new and ambitious targets on climate change for the coming decade in our Strategy 2030—cumulative climate financing of $80 billion from 2019-2030 and a commitment to make 75% of our projects climate-relevant by 2030. Furthermore, by steadily increasing shadow carbon price, which factors climate costs into our project economic analysis, ADB is reflecting the urgency of shifting to low carbon alternatives.
However, given the narrowing window for avoiding catastrophic climate change, mobilizing finance at the necessary speed and scale remains a huge challenge. The Nationally Determined Contributions of many countries have outlined the financing needed to achieve their climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement. According to one estimate, it is $4.4 trillion or $349 billion annually[1]. While there are no robust and comprehensive estimates available for the Asia and Pacific region, an assessment by ADB on Asia’s infrastructure needs found that $200 billion will be needed annually to address climate actions in energy, water, and transport[2].
Though national governments and development financing institutions should devote more of their financial resources, the bulk of climate financing will necessarily have to come from private investors. This highlights the need to deploy climate financing in a way that enables and mobilizes private sector finance. But the good news is there is a robust, and growing, body of evidence that the benefits of climate action already far outweigh the costs—representing a significant opportunity for the private sector. For example, the New Climate Economy Initiative, to which I have contributed as a Commissioner, has found that investment in low-carbon growth is associated with a cumulative economic gain of $26 trillion until 2030. Meanwhile, a recent report by the Global Commission on Adaptation found that investing $1.8 trillion globally from 2020 to 2030 in five key areas—early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture, mangrove protection, and more resilient water resources—could yield $7.1 trillion in net benefits.
The provision of finance is just one part of the climate change puzzle—high technology, policy support, and capacity development to build better institution are also critical. But by further scaling up collective actions on addressing climate change by national governments, development partners, and the private sector, we can greatly respond to the voices of younger generations and vulnerable populations across the world for bolder action that ensures our common future on a healthy planet.
Budget revenue amounted to MNT9.7 trillion www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. In the first 11 months of 2019, total equilibrated revenue and grants of the General government budget amounted to MNT 9.7 trillion and total expenditure and net lending amounted to MNT 9.2 trillion, resulting a surplus of MNT 486.7 billion in the equilibrated balance.
In November 2019, equilibrated revenue and grants of the General government budget reached MNT 842.9 billion, decreased by MNT 252.0 billion or 23.0% from the previous month and total expenditure and net lending reached MNT 901.7 billion, decreased by MNT 132.5 billion or 12.8% from the previous month.
In the first 11 months of 2019, tax revenue reached MNT 8.8 trillion, increased by MNT 1.4 trillion or 19.0% compared with the same period of previous year. This growth was mainly affected by increases of MNT 422.2 billion or 22.5% in income tax, MNT 323.1 billion or 22.8% in social security revenue, MNT 260.9 billion or 13.3% in value added taxes, MNT 175.0 billion or 26.4% in other tax, MNT 102.2 billion or 14.8% in excise taxes and MNT 101.3 billion or 16.4% in revenue from foreign activities.
General Government budget revenue was comprised of 81.6% of tax revenue, 8.7% of non-tax revenue, 8.8% of the future heritage fund and 0.9% of the stabilization fund.
In the first 11 months of 2019, total expenditure and net lending of the General government budget reached MNT 9.2 trillion, increased by MNT 1.2 trillion or 15.6% compared with the same period of previous year. This increase was mainly due to MNT 755.3 billion or 11.7% increase in current expenditure and MNT 561.2 billion or 45.9% increase in capital expenditure.
General government budget expenditure and net lending was comprised 78.2% of current expenditure, 19.4% of capital expenditure and 2.4% of net lending.
Source: National Statistics Office
Sales of industrial production increase by MNT1.9 trillion in the first 11 months of 2019 www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. In the first 11 months of 2019, the gross industrial output reached MNT 16.0 trillion, showing an increase of MNT 1.8 trillion (12.8%) from the same period of previous year. This increase was mainly due to an increase of mining and quarrying gross output by MNT 1.4 trillion (13.3%), of which mining of coal increased by MNT 1.4 trillion (38.1%) and other mining and quarrying increased by MNT 15.3 billion (12.6%).
In November 2019, the gross industrial output reached MNT 1.5 trillion, it is decreased by MNT 102.8 billion (6.6%) compared to the previous month.
In November 2019, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index was 171.5 (2010=100), decreased by 2.9% from the same period of previous year and by 3.6% from the end of previous year, whereas, it is increased by 1.5% from the previous month. In the first 11 months of 2019, in mining sector, coal, crude oil, gravel, fluorspar and iron ore are increased by 7.9-37.4% compared to the same period of previous year. In manufacturing sector, production of vacuum windows and doors, cashmere products, buuz and dumpling, wooden window and door are increased by 0.1-86.0%.
On the other hand, in mining sector, extraction of zinc concentrate, copper concentrate, extraction of molybdenum concentrate and gold are decreased by 2.3-22.9%. In manufacturing sector, productions of beer, sausage products, wooden products, alcoholic beverage, horse meat, copper cathode, fodder and combed cashmere are decreased by 0.5-34.5% compared to the same period of previous year.
In the first 11 months of 2019, the sales of industrial production reached MNT 18.4 trillion, increased by MNT 1.9 trillion (11.7%) from the same period of previous year. From the total sales of industrial production, MNT 12.5 trillion (68.1%) were export.
Source: National Statistics Office
Monthly air quality statistics released www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. The National Statistics Office of Mongolia released a monthly report on the social and economic situation of Mongolia as of November 2019.
The report says, in November 2019 in Ulaanbaatar, average daily concentrations of the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide in the air were increased by 0.028 mg / m3 or 82.5 percent and 0.007 mg / m3 or 15.9 percent compared with the same period of previous year, respectively.
An average daily concentrations of the PM10 particles and PM2.5 particles in the air were decreased by 0.084 mg/ m3 or 41.0 percent and 0.048 mg/ m3 or 43.9 percent compared with the same period of previous year, respectively.
Moreover, according to the air quality measurement stations in Ulaanbaatar city, cases exceeded the acceptable level in air quality standard of air pollution concentration in Ulaanbaatar were the most in the 1st micro-district, West Crossroad, Khailaast, Bayankhoshuu areas.
The National Statistics Office of Mongolia
Rio Tinto scores big win in Mongolia www.mining.com
The world’s second largest miner Rio Tinto (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO) has scored a major win in Mongolia after the country’s parliament unanimously approved a resolution that reconfirms the validity of all the Oyu Tolgoi mine-related agreements approved since 2009.
The legislators’ resolution brings an 18-month review on the deals governing the copper-gold mine to a close, allowing the company to continue with an ongoing $7 billion expansion of the operation.
The news is something of a relief for Rio Tinto, which feared the government might try to completely renegotiate the agreements on the asset’s development — a 2009 investment agreement, a 2011 amended and restated shareholder agreement and a 2015 underground mine development and financing plan.
The resolution, however, recommends to explore options to improve the deal, including looking at the Mongolian government’s equity share in Oyu Tolgoi, a re-definition of the reserve report and updated feasibility report, and a renewal of environmental and water assessments.
“Adherence to these agreements by all parties has underpinned a total in-country spend of around $10 billion since 2010,” Rio Tinto’s chief executive copper and diamonds, Arnaud Soirat, said in the statement.
Soirat acknowledged there was still “a lot of work to do” to ensure Oyu Tolgoi reaches its full potential.
Oyu Tolgoi was discovered in 2001 and Rio gained control of it in 2012. The ongoing mine expansion is expected to lift production from 125–150kt this year to 560kt at full tilt from 2025, making it the biggest new copper mine to come on stream in several years.
The giant operation is one-third owned by Mongolia’s government and two-third held by Canada’s Turquoise Hill Resources (TSX, NYSE:TRQ). Out of Turquoise’s 66% share, Rio owns 51%.
WHO donates flu drug to Mongolia www.xinhuanet.com
The World Health Organization (WHO) donated more than 5,000 doses of flu drug Oseltamivir to Mongolia on Thursday.
Sergey Diorditsa, representative of the WHO in the country, handed over the antiviral medication worth 25,000 U.S. dollars to Davaajantsan Sarangerel, Mongolian minister of health.
"Influenza, an infectious disease of the respiratory system, represents a major burden for public health. The medication donated by the WHO will be given to children, pregnant women and seniors in public hospitals in the capital city," Sarangerel told reporters.
Prevalence of influenza and other respiratory diseases is now relatively low in the Mongolian capital thanks to the implementation of some preventive measures of flu and the reduction of air pollution in Ulan Bator, she said.
The drug was distributed to several public hospitals in the Mongolian capital.
Turquoise Hill: While Mongolia Wants More Money Now, The Decrease Of Uncertainty Pushes The Stock Up www.seekingalpha.com
Summary
- Mongolian parliament approves the resolution regarding the current investment agreements for Oyu Tolgoi.
- The country wants either a product sharing agreement or a royalty.
- Shares react positively, getting an additional boost from rising copper prices. The short-term upside price momentum looks interesting.
In my recent article on Turquoise Hill (TRQ), I wrote that the most likely pattern for Turquoise Hill shares was to trade at a $0.40-0.50 range until the end of this year amidst uncertainty regarding the potential new terms of the investment agreement for Oyu Tolgoi. This prediction did not work out well, since the stock broke out of the trading range on higher trading volume and is trending higher:
From a technical point of view, that’s a major breakout that no momentum trader will miss. But what’s on the fundamental side of the story?
The Mongolian parliament has just approved the resolution that instructs the government to look at the ways to improve the implementation of the investment agreements, the underground mine plan development and the financing plan of the mine. In the press release to which I linked above, Rio Tinto (RIO) stated the following:
Rio Tinto acknowledges the Mongolian parliament’s resolution and notes that this effectively confirms the validity of all Oyu Tolgoi investment agreements […] There is a lot of work to do to ensure Oyu Tolgoi reaches its full potential, and we remain committed to exploring ways to deliver even greater benefits from Oyu Tolgoi to all shareholders.”
Turquoise Hill went into more depth in its press release, outlining the measures included in the resolution: 1) comprehensive measures to improve the implementation of investment agreements; 2) improvement of the mine development and financing plan and 3) decision to “explore and resolve options to have a product sharing arrangement or swap Mongolia’s equity holding of 34% for a special royalty.”
Here are the key practical conclusions as I see them:
Certainty is almost always better than uncertainty for the market. The Oyu Tolgoi story is somewhat similar to Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) Grasberg mine, which also struggled from the growing appetite of the Indonesian government. The removal of Indonesian uncertainty was certainly a positive catalyst for Freeport. While Oyu Tolgoi does not have this level of certainty yet (Grasberg ultimately got a final (hopefully) deal), the fact that the resolution did not contain anything truly critical for business is surely a positive catalyst for Turquoise Hill.
It’s still too early to talk about how a product sharing agreement or a swap of current Mongolia’s stake for a special royalty might look like. For reference, Freeport’s deal for Grasberg included a 25% corporate income tax rate, a 10% profits tax rate, 4% royalties for copper and 3.75% royalties for gold.
I believe that the royalty scenario will be strategically better for Turquoise Hill compared to the product sharing arrangement. Once Mongolia swaps its current stake in the project for a pre-defined royalty, it will be easier for Turquoise Hill and Rio Tinto to defend against any additional claims from future governments (the current trend in this space is unfavorable for international mining companies, and there’s no reason to believe that this negative trend will stop in the coming years).
We currently see a relief rally in Turquoise Hill shares. In such situations, fears of the worst outcome are always somewhere in the background even if no one voices them publicly – such fears are removed for now. Also, we should not forget about recent copper price upside which could have provided some additional support to building momentum trade in the company’s stock. At this point, the short-term trend has certainly changed to the upside.
There are still many variables in the Oyu Tolgoi story: the exact changes to the investment agreement are yet to be determined, while the new operating and financing plans for the mine will be known only in 2020. Therefore, the stock comes with a material headline risk which can bring both major upside and downside.
At this point, it looks like the news from Mongolia and copper price upside created a short-term setup for upside in Turquoise Hill shares. Fundamentally, the story remains promising (as always) but risky, so size your positions accordingly and manage your risks properly if you want to join the momentum trade.
By:Vladimir Zernov
...U.S. Government launches new project to support Mongolia’s small and medium enterprises www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. The U.S. government, through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), announced the launch of a five-year, MNT 40.7 billion ($15 million) project that will enable Mongolia’s small and medium enterprises to contribute more actively to the country’s economy.
USAID’s Business Excellence for Sustainability and Transparency project, implemented in partnership with Mongolian non-governmental organization Development Solutions, will provide technical assistance and training to increase the access of local entrepreneurs to needed financing to help grow and strengthen their businesses.
“Mongolia’s small and medium enterprises play a significant role in creating jobs and diversifying the country’s economy,” Ambassador Michael Klecheski said. “As a key partner in the Indo-Pacific, the United States is committed to advancing a private-sector led growth in a free, democratic society.”
USAID will work with government and private sector partners to foster an environment conducive to the growth of SMEs, including easier access to business financing, improved corporate governance, capacity-building training on transparency and accountability, and provision of small grants to disadvantaged enterprises. Since 2016, USAID support to SMEs helped improve their access to credit and has facilitated linkages between financial institutions and 750 borrowers, multiplying their investments 20 times over and creating more than 600 new jobs.
The U.S. government, through USAID, works with the Mongolian government, the private sector and non-government organizations to support Mongolia’s continued democratic development, facilitate sustainable, inclusive economic growth, and solidify its path to greater independence and self-reliance. In October, the U.S. and Mongolian governments signed an MNT17 billion ($6.4 million) expansion of the bilateral agreement to implement new activities that will promote good governance, strengthen the rule of law, secure reliable, efficient, and affordable energy; and encourage sustainable, private sector-led growth.
U.S. Embassy in Ulaanbaatar
President’s veto on social insurance premium accepted by Parliament www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. On December 12, Parliament held a discussion on vetoes put by the President of Mongolia on State Budget Law for 2020 and its accompanying law to accept the president’s partial veto on social insurance premium.
President Kh.Battulga put a partial veto on the article of the State Budget Law for 2020 to increase social insurance premium by two percent, which would have collected a total of MNT 174.2 billion to state budget as well as an accompanying law on amendments to the regulation on the implementation of the Future Heritage Fund.
Also, a veto was imposed on the budget law article enabling a total of MNT 1.4 trillion of investment for development of a total of 386 buildings in 2021 and 2022.
However, Parliamentary Standing Committee on Budget, on Tuesday, accepted the partial veto on social insurance premium growth and rejected veto on the Future Heritage Fund and the veto on the construction investment.
At today’s parliamentary session, the partial veto on social insurance premium was backed by 51.2 percent of parliamentary members in present voting in favor of it.
Concerning the veto approval by the Parliament, Speaker G.Zandanshatar gave an order to relevant government officials to work on the amendments to the budget law for next year and submit to the Parliament.
Water quality and sanitary facilities of western aimags being improved www.montsame.mn
Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. A meeting of the consultative committee of the project, ‘Community-based Climate Resilient Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene Services’, being co-implemented by the Government of Mongolia, and UNICEF with the support of Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) took place on December 10. The work done in the framework of the project, achievements, and lessons learned so far were discussed, and the draft action plan for 2020 was introduced at the meeting.
In her opening remarks, Deputy Minister of Health, Head of the consultative committee of the project L.Byambasuren noted that two criteria are required to be ensured for water supply, sanitation, and hygiene facilities that are being newly built, which are to have new designs, such as being environmentally friendly, energy and water efficient, and being climate resilient.
The aimags of Bayankhongor, Gobi-Altai, and Zavkhan will benefit the results of the project and Thus, with the successful implementation of the project alongside these aimags, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science and Sports are giving special significance to promoting the best practice to other aimags.
One of the works successfully implemented in the project framework is the construction of hot water facilities in school dormitories of rural soums, enabling an opportunity for the students staying at the dormitory to keep good personal hygiene, which will reduce the cases for seasonal flu and illnesses in children.
The committee came to the decision to further develop sanitary facilities in schools and kindergartens by introducing new technologies and innovation, and improving the cooperation and information exchange between aimags and soums in the coming year.
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