Events
Name | organizer | Where |
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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK | MBCCI | London UK Goodman LLC |
NEWS

Mongolia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission www.imf.org
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission, led by Mr. Tahsin Saadi Sedik, conducted discussions as part of the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Mongolian authorities in Ulaanbaatar during June 4–18, 2025. At the end of the visit, the mission issued the following statement, summarizing its key findings and recommendations.
During 2023‒24, record-high coal exports and increased government spending led to buoyant economic activity, which, along with fiscal surpluses and successful debt rollovers, also helped reduce vulnerabilities.
The resource boom is weakening amid rising risks. With coal exports declining in recent months, mainly due to falling prices, and increased global uncertainty, the near-term outlook has become less favorable, and downside risks have increased amid limited policy buffers.
The policy priority is to increase resilience of the Mongolian economy to downside risks by restoring both internal and external balances, and by preserving buffers. This requires greater fiscal prudence and adherence to fiscal rules, tight monetary and macroprudential policies, and increased exchange rate flexibility.
Should downside risks materialize, significant and timely policy adjustments—particularly fiscal tightening—will be required to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.
Recent economic developments, outlook, and risks
Since the 2023 Article IV consultation, Mongolia’s macroeconomic conditions have improved. A resource-driven boom during 2023‒24 led to buoyant economic activity, despite a sharp contraction in the agriculture sector. Budget revenues from the mining sector more than doubled, enabling fiscal surpluses and contributing to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and savings in the sovereign wealth fund despite a significant increase in public spending, which together with debt repayments helped reduce debt-to-GDP ratio from 64.5 percent in 2022 to 44.5 percent in 2024 (IMF staff definition). Rating agencies have upgraded Mongolia’s sovereign credit rating to B+/B2, and its sovereign spread narrowed to historically low levels before the volatility spiked amid global trade tensions. The IMF staff’s Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework (SRDSF) indicates a moderate risk rating compared to the high-risk rating in the 2023 SRDSF. However, the sharp increase in public spending in 2023-24, including wages and capital expenditures, resulted in a highly expansionary fiscal policy stance, which together with the policy rate cuts, despite the tightening of reserve requirements, fueled rapid credit growth and inflation pressures, and led to a surge in imports and a shift in the current account from surplus to deficit in 2024.
In early 2025, the commodity boom began to lose momentum, and the outlook has weakened amid rising downside risks. Mongolia’s coal export receipts declined sharply, mainly due to falling prices, resulting in a sizeable shortfall in budget revenues and a further widening of the current account deficit, which led to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves and increased depreciation. Credit growth and inflation remain high despite some recent moderation, with inflation standing above the Bank of Mongolia (BOM)’s target band.
Policies to Navigate a Weaker Outlook and Increased Risks
Fiscal policy
Greater fiscal prudence and adherence to the fiscal rules are critical to restoring external and internal balances and preserving fiscal buffers. Despite the decline in revenues, the authorities plan to meet the structural fiscal balance target envisaged in the 2025 Budget and the recently approved medium-term fiscal framework through expenditure restraint. To achieve this objective, the government needs to articulate detailed and credible measures. It is critical that these measures safeguard social spending to protect the most vulnerable. Should downside risks materialize, an ambitious consolidation strategy would be needed to preserve macroeconomic stability. To ensure the credibility of fiscal rules as a policy anchor, compliance with the rules will be critical. In particular, large investment projects should be implemented within the fiscal deficit and debt rules, as defined in the Fiscal Stability Law.
As a priority, the tax package currently under discussion should be reconsidered. While the package includes several positive elements, such as modernizing the tax administration, broadening VAT base, introducing digital service tax and strengthening progressive tax structure, it would result in a substantial and permanent reduction in non-mining tax revenues. This would increase the overall deficit, reduce the government’s fiscal space to implement critically needed development projects, and hinder compliance with fiscal rules, while also increasing the budget’s vulnerability to volatile mining revenues. In addition, some elements of the tax package need to be further refined to align with international best practices. The package also includes some measures, such as a progressive VAT, for which Mongolia’s tax administration is not yet prepared. Instead, reform efforts should focus on strengthening non-mining revenue mobilization by streamlining tax incentives, collecting tax arrears, and implementing tax and customs administration reforms.
Further reforms are needed to mitigate fiscal risks. Efforts should focus on improving the targeting of social assistance, which would help address the perceived inequitable distribution of mining wealth. Implementation of mega projects should be prioritized according to the availability of external financing and the economy’s absorptive capacity. Coordination with subnational entities needs to be strengthened to ensure fiscal discipline of the general government. Legal frameworks governing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public-private partnerships should be enhanced. Building on recent efforts, the Ministry of Finance’s capacity to monitor and mitigate related fiscal risks should be further strengthened. The Development Bank of Mongolia’s long-standing balance-sheet and governance issues need to be addressed promptly. Expanding domestic debt issuance is critical to establishing a benchmark yield curve to help develop domestic markets and to reduce Mongolia’s reliance on external borrowing.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
Domestic financial conditions should remain tight to contain credit growth and inflation. Despite the policy rate hike in early 2025 and some moderation in recent months, inflation is expected to stay above the BOM’s target band over 2025–26. A further rate increase may be warranted if the recent decline in inflation reverses, including through exchange rate depreciation. At the same time, there is scope to recalibrate reserve requirements. Excessive reliance on reserve requirements may incentivize banks to seek external funds with more than one year maturity, which are excluded from these requirements, thus increasing the BOM’s exposure to exchange rate risks through its foreign exchange swaps with banks.
Greater exchange rate flexibility would strengthen Mongolia’s resilience to external shocks. The BOM should pursue opportunistic accumulation of reserves when market conditions allow. The BOM should support a more effective exchange rate price-discovery mechanism by gradually reducing its role as an intermediary and structural provider of FX to the market. In addition, the BOM should support the development of domestic FX derivatives markets and phase out its role as the dominant provider of FX hedging instruments to banks.
Reforms to strengthen the BOM’s effectiveness should be accelerated. As a priority, the BOM should fully withdraw from subsidized mortgage program, which undermines the transmission of monetary policy and jeopardizes the independence of the central bank. The government should expedite the transfer of the BOM's subsidized mortgage program and relieve the BOM of its obligation to channel the newly established Savings Fund toward the expansion of the mortgage program. Moreover, the proposed amendments to the central bank law, aimed at strengthening the BOM’s mandate, as well as the operational autonomy, and governance, should be finalized and submitted to Parliament. Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance and the BOM need to agree on a memorandum of understanding that outlines a gradual recapitalization strategy for the BOM that is consistent with fiscal sustainability.
Macroprudential and Financial Sector Policies
Macroprudential frameworks and financial oversight should be strengthened to mitigate financial stability risks, including rapid credit growth. The recent tightening of macroprudential measures, including the reduction of Debt-Service-To-Income (DSTI) limits, for banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is a welcome development. Further efforts are needed, including aligning the DSTI limit for NBFIs with that of banks and expanding the BOM’s macroprudential toolkit to include countercyclical capital buffers, liquidity coverage ratios, and net stable funding ratios. Macroprudential and monetary policies should be separated in terms of formulation and implementation. The ongoing transition toward a risk-based, forward‑looking supervisory approach is welcome. The interconnections between banks and NBFIs should be closely monitored. Amendments to the BOM and Banking Laws are critical to ensure greater legal protection for supervisors and more effective inter-agency information sharing and coordination. The strengthening of crisis management arrangements and clarifying the resources available for resolutions would also help reduce financial stability risks.
Reforms are also needed to enhance the financial sector’s ability to lend to creditworthy entities. The objective is to reduce the cost of lending, especially to small and medium-sized enterprises. This could be done by amending the Credit Information and Insolvency Laws to enable more effective and timely credit assessment and collateral evaluation, and to streamline foreclosure and insolvency processes. In addition, efforts to diversify bank ownership structures should continue, which may require increasing ownership limits, and allowing investment in multiple banks. This should be complemented with effective supervision of complex ownership structures to mitigate the risks associated with connected and related-party lending.
Structural Policies
Further improvements to the business climate and governance that build on recent progress would boost Mongolia’s long-term growth prospects. The substantial state footprint in the economy and frequent regulatory changes dampen private sector initiatives and discourage FDI. Reform efforts should focus on reducing red tape, streamlining licensing procedures, improving tax compliance and land use processes, and ensuring consistent and transparent judicial and regulatory enforcement. Governance in the public sector also requires strengthening. This includes addressing corruption vulnerabilities in revenue institutions, strengthening the transparency and accountability of public procurement and SOEs, and implementing legislative reforms, including the SOE Law and Whistleblower Protection Law. Mongolia has made satisfactory progress in strengthening its anti‑money laundering and counter-financing of terrorism legal framework, though challenges related to effective implementation remain.
Climate adaptation, mitigation, and green transition will require significant investments and policy reforms. Adaptation actions are needed given increase in the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, such as harsh winters and floods, while mitigation actions are needed to address Mongolia’s high carbon intensity and to reduce air pollution. In addition, preparations are needed to address the expected decline in China’s coal demand as it advances its energy transition and decarbonization agenda. So far, implementation of Mongolia’s climate agenda remains limited. Climate adaptation measures have yet to be fully integrated into sectoral policies and budget processes. Moreover, there is no dedicated climate change law to mandate cross-sectoral coordination. Advancing Mongolia’s climate objectives will require significant financial contributions from both the public and private sectors, underscoring the importance of creating fiscal space.
The staff team expresses its sincere gratitude to the authorities and to a broad range of public and private sector counterparts for their warm hospitality and for the candid, constructive discussions.
See the full article at https://www.imf.org/.../mongolia-staff-concluding...

Mongolia upset USA at FIBA 3x3 World Cup 2025 quarter-finals www.fiba.basketball
Mongolia sent a packed and booming home crowd in a frenzy on Saturday, when they bucked the odds and stunned USA, 18-15, in a massive win to punch their ticket to the FIBA 3x3 World Cup Semi-Finals in style.
Khulan Onolbaatar stepped up to the plate once more and delivered under the bright lights, scoring eight of her nine points from the 2-point line. Onolbaatar also accounted for four of Mongolia’s six 2s against USA.
Ariuntsetseg Bat-Erdene scored five along with five boards, while Nandinkhusel Nyamjav also added four for Mongolia, including the last two free throws in the final 1.7 seconds to keep the game out of USA's reach and seal the momentous win.
It’s an upset of monumental proportions for the 10th-ranked Mongolia, who had to fight their way through the Play-In Round with a huge, gritty win vs. China before stunning the USA, the fifth-ranked team in the world.
“It still feels unreal,” Onolbaatar said. “This is the best team in the world and then we beat them in the Quarter-Finals in front of our home crowd. They were so amazing.
“I cannot describe it in words,” she added. “But we’re not done. As Steve Sir says, we’re hungry for two more tomorrow. Our magical run continues.”
USA came into the matchup as favorites after sweeping pool play at 4-0, but Mongolia's defense poise under high-stakes pressure made them a dangerous draw -- and that's exactly how it played out vs. the Americans, where some stifling work off-ball and a ton of composure proved to be the key as the game progressed for Mongolia.
After an Onolbaatar to give Mongolia a 10-6 lead with 5:20 left gave the crowd at Sukhbaatar Square a reason to erupt, USA crawled back and kept it a tense affair behind leading scorer Sarah Strong, who fired 11 points to keep her squad within striking distance along the way.
A Strong post-up tied it at 15 apiece with 34 seconds left, but an Onolbaatar bucket off a a broken play with 18 seconds left gave Mongolia some breathing room for a lead they would not relinquish up until the final buzzer. A key stop in the final possession prevented USA from tying things up, while Nyamjav's steady hands at the line for two free throws later iced the game for Mongolia
Timely 2s every time USA made a push kept the Americans at bay. Facing a significant size advantage in the paint, the Mongolians leaned on their shooting from the 2-point line, where they scored 12 on 24 shots while taking just a total of eight shots inside the arc. USA, in contrast, attempted just eight 2s and went 11-for-23 in the paint.
Mongolia will now head on to Sunday to face Poland in what should be a highly-anticipated Semi-Final matchup set at 17:25.

Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia enhance bilateral cooperation www.xinhuanet.com
Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan Adylbek Kasymaliev met with visiting Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia Sainbuyan Amarsaikhan in Bishkek on Friday, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan reported.
Kasymaliev noted that relations between the two countries are based on mutual trust, respect and good neighborliness. Amarsaikhan expressed gratitude to the Kyrgyz side for the warm welcome and organization of the meeting of the intergovernmental commission, emphasizing Mongolia's desire to deepen bilateral cooperation. He noted the importance of expanding trade and economic ties, and developing joint projects in various fields.
The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in all areas of mutual interest, the report said.
Amarsaikhan arrived in Kyrgyzstan to participate in the fifth meeting of the Kyrgyz-Mongolian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation, which was held in Bishkek on Friday.
During the meeting, the two sides discussed in detail issues of increasing trade turnover, implementing joint investment projects, developing tourism, deepening humanitarian exchanges, and expanding cooperation in science and high technology. Particular attention was paid to coordinating efforts to support business initiatives and creating favorable conditions for entrepreneurs, the Kyrgyz Cabinet said.
Following the meeting, the Protocol of the fifth meeting of the Kyrgyz-Mongolian Intergovernmental Commission was signed, securing the agreements reached and providing for specific measures aimed at promoting socio-economic development, increasing the well-being of citizens, as well as strengthening friendship, trust and mutually beneficial partnership between the two states.
The Kyrgyz-Mongolian Intergovernmental Commission is a key mechanism for bilateral cooperation in the areas of trade, investment, science, technology and culture. Decisions made within the commission contribute to the implementation of joint projects and further deepening of the partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia.

Mongolia’s Government Transition: Democracy in Action or Foreign Interference? www.thediplomat.com
Mongolia’s recent change in government has been widely debated, with some international media outlets speculating about foreign interference. Such claims overlook the deeper democratic processes at play. Far from it, the leadership transition reflects Mongolia’s evolving political maturity and the public’s demand for transparency and accountability.
On June 11, British newspaper The Times published an article alleging that Mongolia’s recent change in government was shaped by Kremlin-linked influence and internal power struggles. The article went so far as to frame Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai’s resignation as “an effective coup,” a characterization based solely on unnamed government sources and not corroborated by any other independent outlet.
The piece portrayed Mongolia’s domestic politics as potentially vulnerable to manipulation by external actors. While this perspective may resonate with broader geopolitical concerns, it overlooks the complex internal dynamics and democratic processes that in fact drove recent developments.
A Crisis of Communication and Credibility, Not Foreign Interference
The resignation of Oyun-Erdene was not the result of foreign interference. It was the outcome of a lawful democratic process, triggered by sustained public protests over allegations of corruption and government opacity. What began as an organic youth movement, sparked by revelations about the prime minister’s son’s life of luxury, evolved into a broader call for transparency, integrity, and reform.
What ultimately sealed Oyun-Erdene’s fate was not external meddling but his failure to engage meaningfully with the public. This misstep is striking, given that in December 2022 he had met face-to-face with thousands protesting corruption in the coal sector. His personal appearance back then defused tensions and earned his government time.
When this round of protests began in May 2025, protestors initially made a modest demand: they asked Oyun-Erdene to explain his son’s lavish lifestyle, as displayed in social media posts. Yet the prime minister declined to engage, offered no explanation, and appeared to dismiss their concerns. His remarks, referring to protestors as “flies” and questioning the protests’ authenticity, only deepened the disconnect. What began as a call for accountability gradually became a call for resignation.
In parliament, Oyun-Erdene argued that his government needed more time to deliver on mega-projects that would, he claimed, raise GDP per capita to $10,000. But after five years, the longest tenure of any prime minister in modern Mongolian history, the public’s patience had worn thin. The promise that stability would bring prosperity was no longer convincing; his credibility had eroded.
Legislators thus faced a difficult choice: preserve executive stability or respond to an increasingly vocal electorate. The no-confidence vote that followed was not a coup or the product of foreign plots. It was the lawful exercise of democratic checks and balances by elected representatives responding to their constituents. Reuters, the Associated Press, and Al Jazeera all reported the episode as an example of democracy at work, not the result of foreign manipulation.
The Danger of Simplistic Narratives
Mongolia’s geography, landlocked between China and Russia, and its complex foreign policy naturally draw scrutiny. International partners are right to be vigilant about undue foreign influence in any small democracy facing external pressures. But vigilance must not slide into oversimplification. Portraying domestic political developments as mere extensions of great power rivalry diminishes Mongolia’s agency and misrepresents its democracy.
This is not just a matter of fairness. It is precisely because of Mongolia’s foreign policy challenges that such narratives could be so damaging. By portraying Mongolia’s democracy as weak and easily manipulated by one of its neighbors, this type of reporting may undermine efforts to strengthen ties not only with China and Russia but also with its so-called third neighbors, including the European Union, Japan, and the United States. If these partners come to see Mongolia as anything less than an independent, sovereign democracy, they will hesitate to deepen engagement. That would be a severe setback at a moment when Mongolia urgently needs investment, cultural exchange, stronger institutions, and deeper diplomatic partnerships.
The threat goes well beyond economics. Mongolia’s democracy already faces pressures identified by indices such as V-Dem, including diminishing media freedom, reduced judicial independence, and declining public trust. Its health depends on continued support from democratic partners. Emphasizing unverified narratives of foreign manipulation risks weakening Mongolia’s international standing, feeding public cynicism, and hampering its ability to build the partnerships essential for protecting its democratic progress.
Mongolia’s Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh has publicly challenged the narrative presented in The Times, emphasizing that such portrayals misrepresent the country’s political realities and risk undermining its diplomatic credibility. In a recent interview with Arctus Analytics, an Ulaanbaatar-based research and analysis firm, she elaborated on the government’s broader concerns about the increasing complexity of Mongolia’s international engagement. “Our foreign relations have expanded rapidly in recent years,” she noted. “This growth has brought many new actors into the space, including government agencies, local authorities, businesses, and civil society organizations. While this is a welcome sign of international engagement, it also underscores the need for better coordination and oversight, aligned with Mongolia’s national interests and security.”
Battsetseg revealed that the government is in the process of drafting a comprehensive law to establish clearer guidelines on who may engage in foreign relations on behalf of the state and under what conditions. “Had such a framework been in place earlier,” she added, “we might have avoided some of the confusion and misrepresentation that arose from recent international reporting.”
Mongolia’s Balanced Diplomacy and Expanding Global Partnerships
Mongolia’s multi-pillared foreign policy is designed to preserve its sovereignty by engaging a wide range of partners and expanding the areas of cooperation. The country maintains strategic partnerships with China and Russia while actively cultivating strong ties with third neighbors such as Japan, the European Union, and other like-minded democracies. What makes this approach effective is not merely the number of partners but also the growing diversity of fields in which Mongolia engages, including mining, infrastructure, energy, education, technology, climate resilience, and cultural exchange.
This strategy has delivered tangible results. Japan’s support for infrastructure modernization and France’s investment in Mongolia’s uranium sector demonstrate how Ulaanbaatar has broadened cooperation with trusted partners. Mongolia’s uranium partnership with France in particular represents the first major investment from a Western partner since the Oyu Tolgoi agreement and marks a significant milestone in third neighbor cooperation.
Mongolia’s diplomatic activity also underscores its success in building credibility on the international stage. In 2023 alone, the country hosted or conducted 12 presidential-level visits, six by parliamentary speakers, five by prime ministers, and 23 by foreign ministers, signing 41 intergovernmental documents across diverse sectors. The momentum continued in 2024 with 15 presidential visits, eight prime ministerial meetings, and 19 foreign ministry consultations, reflecting growing international interest in Ulaanbaatar as a credible and neutral interlocutor committed to balanced engagement.
At the same time, Mongolia has strengthened its balanced relations with its two neighbors. Recent agreements with China and Russia include a cross-border railway accord to enhance connectivity and a deal to expand and modernize a key power station. These steps show that Mongolia’s balanced foreign policy is not merely aspirational; it is being actively implemented.
A Call for Thoughtful Engagement
Mongolia’s recent change in government was not the product of foreign manipulation. It was the outcome of a people holding their leaders accountable through lawful and democratic means. This is not the story of a pawn caught between powerful neighbors. It is the story of a democracy, imperfect yet resilient, determined to chart its own course in a complex region.
Oversimplified narratives that portray Mongolia as vulnerable to external manipulation risk undermining the progress the country has made. They damage its standing on the international stage and jeopardize efforts to deepen ties not only with its immediate neighbors but also with trusted partners across the democratic world. Mongolia’s diplomacy, marked by new agreements with both neighbors and third neighbor countries, shows that its multi-pillared foreign policy is being implemented in practice, not just in principle.
Mongolia deserves thoughtful engagement from international partners who are committed to supporting its sovereignty and its efforts to maintain balance in a challenging geopolitical environment. In an era of rising polarization and competing narratives, responsible journalism and principled diplomacy are not luxuries for small democracies like Mongolia. They are essential safeguards for a nation working to secure its place as a credible, independent, and constructive member of the international community.
BY
Erdene-Ochir Enkhbayar is a research analyst at Arctus Analytics, based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Kazakhstan, Mongolia Deepen Strategic Ties During High-Level Visit to Ulaanbaatar www.astanatimes.com
Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu met with Mongolian Foreign Minister Batmunkh Battsetseg during his official visit to Ulaanbaatar on June 26, reported the Kazakh Foreign Ministry’s press service.
The two counterparts noted the high level of strategic partnership between the countries, emphasizing the steady development of high-level political dialogue and intergovernmental and interparliamentary cooperation.
Nurtleu’s visit focused on the implementation of agreements reached during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s state visit to Mongolia in October 2024.
The ministers outlined concrete steps to achieve the $500 million bilateral trade target set by the two presidents, signaling a stronger commitment to economic cooperation.
As part of a pilot project, Kazakhstan expressed interest in purchasing 500,000 goats from Mongolia. The move is aimed at advancing export-oriented cooperation, particularly in the deep processing of meat and other livestock products. Foreign Minister Nurtleu invited Mongolian businesses to explore partnerships in the sector.
The ministers also discussed key regional and global issues, reaffirming their commitment to further cooperation within the UN, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Kazakhstan thanked Mongolia for its support and co-sponsorship of the UN Security Council resolution to establish the UN Regional Center for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty.
During the visit, Nurtleu also met with members of the State Great Khural and prominent Kazakh figures in Mongolia. On behalf of President Tokayev, 5,000 literary works by Kazakh authors, poets, and scholars were presented to the local Kazakh community, symbolizing cultural and humanitarian ties and support for the Kazakh people abroad.
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Mongolia seeks new markets in Eurasia www.eastasiaforum.org
Landlocked Mongolia has decided to pivot its trade towards Eurasia. In March 2025, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Mongolia agreed on a draft proposal regarding a three-year trade agreement, according to the EAEU Trade Minister Andrey Slepnew.
The EAEU was formed in 2015, consisting of five former Soviet states — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Mongolia started the last rounds of talks on an interim free trade agreement with EAEU in 2024. Supporters of the agreement highlight its benefits to the Mongolian economy as it opens a US$14.5 billion market across the five EAEU countries for Mongolian cashmere, leather and wool exports. Some preliminary research suggests that Mongolia could add US$150 million worth of goods to the EAEU market, meanwhile EAEU countries could potentially increase their exports by US$200–300 million in the Mongolian market.
The trade agreement is the latest example of Mongolian efforts to reach regional markets beyond its biggest trading partner, China. While Mongolia’s trade turnover — exports plus imports — with China accounted for 72 per cent of total trade in 2023, the country has had limited trade with EAEU countries. That is, except for Russia, on which Mongolia depends for 85–90 per cent of its petroleum products, accounting for 32–34 per cent of total imports into Mongolia.
Increasing exports and expanding regional cooperation are thus part of Mongolia’s long-term development plan, Vision-2050, which was announced in 2020.
The agreement is also a step towards diversifying Mongolia’s economy beyond mining. The Mongolian Ministry of Economy and Development announced that the three-year trade agreement is expected to cover 375 goods from Mongolia to the EAEU and vice versa. Mongolia will export meat, meat-related products, animal leather, wool, cashmere and milk-based products to the EAEU market. EAEU countries are planning to export fruits, cosmetics, chemical products and manufacturing components. It is not clear yet whether there will be non-tariff barriers from participating economies, including Mongolia.
Mongolia has been a net exporter, running a trade surplus, since 2014. For Mongolia, 92.1 per cent of exports, 31.6 per cent of state revenue and 28.7 per cent of GDP came from its mining industry in 2023. The heavy dependence on mining makes the Mongolian economy vulnerable to market shocks, as exemplified in the 2015–16 debt crisis that was fuelled by a decline in key commodity prices in the mining sector.
Any move to strengthen non-mining industries and expand its trading networks beyond China are positive developments for Mongolia. The question is whether Mongolian non-mining products will be competitive in the EAEU’s market.
The majority of the 375 products named in the document are from agriculture. Despite employing the largest share — 18.4 per cent — of the workforce in the country, Mongolia’s agriculture sector accounted for only 7.5 per cent of national GDP in 2024. The export share of the industry is even lower. Non-mining products such as textiles, animal-origin products, vegetable-origin products and food products accounted for no more than 5.1 per cent of total exports in 2024.
Some studies argue that the core problem of the industry is the persistence of low-value products, but they also acknowledge that agriculture is key to economic diversification. Opening a larger market for Mongolian agricultural goods would strengthen the industry and potentially have a spillover effect of producing value-added goods.
Meanwhile, critics including the National Chamber of Commerce and Industry argue that the agreement lacks sufficient research and hurts domestic producers. For instance, an article by Bloomberg cited the Mongolian National University Business School’s research on the interim agreement with EAEU, which suggested a 6.1 per cent decline in GDP. Yet as the Business School Dean emphasised, this research was based on an initial proposed agreement between the two sides before the revisions announced later. There is still insufficient research on how the interim agreement potentially impacts small- and medium-sized businesses.
In terms of the country’s greater economic landscape, Mongolia has plans to transition towards value-added manufactured goods and could make manufacturing its industrial base. The coalition government planned to build various mineral processing projects in 2024, including a coke-chemical complex and a copper-processing complex. But these projects are likely to require significant investment and time to compete in the global market. The political paralysis caused by the June 2025 downfall of the coalition government may impede the country’s efforts to execute these long-term projects. Moreover, Mongolia’s relatively small population and landlocked location further present a challenge to advancing from primary goods production to manufacturing.
Still, the Mongolian government’s move to increase its trade volume with EAEU countries could be part of a greater discussion on regional cooperation beyond the 375 goods. Critics may argue that Russia disproportionately benefits from the agreement, or claim that the EAEU is Moscow’s ‘soft’ power tool. But the interim deal with its clear list of 375 items can help Mongolia expand its trading partners and make its agricultural industry competitive in the region. Plus, the Mongolian government has room to engage in non-tariff barriers through various policy measures to protect certain small- and medium-sized businesses.
Any move to strengthen non-mining sectors is beneficial for the country’s goal to diversify its economy. The government should continue its efforts to move beyond primary goods production, especially in the mining sector, by engaging in a greater number of trading partners in various sectors.
BY: Telmen Altanshagai is Policy Research Fellow at the Global Policy Institute.

Mongolia keen on promoting mutually beneficial cooperation with EAEU www.eng.belta.by
Mongolia is keen on promoting mutually beneficial cooperation with the EAEU, Mongolia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Nyam-Osor Uchral said at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Minsk on 27 June, BelTA learned reports.
Nyam-Osor Uchral stressed that Mongolia always attaches great importance to strengthening ties with the Eurasian region. According to him, the EAEU is an important partner for his country, with which it has close trade, economic and cultural ties.
“We have every opportunity to expand cooperation not only in trade and transport, but also in such areas as politics, green development, digital transformation, science and education,” he said.
At the same time, he noted that Mongolia’s trade with the EAEU is modest and accounts for only 11% of the country’s total foreign trade.
During the summit, the Eurasian Economic Union and Mongolia signed an interim trade agreement. Nyam-Osor Uchral believes that once this agreement is launched, trade between the countries and enterprises will grow.
“Mongolia is eager to promote mutually beneficial cooperation with the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union to ensure reliable supplies of food, energy, raw materials and create new production chains,” he said.

Prime Minister of Mongolia Receives Rio Tinto Copper Chief Executive www.montsame.mn
Prime Minister of Mongolia Zandanshatar Gombojav has received Rio Tinto Copper Chief Executive Katie Jackson.
At the beginning of the meeting, Prime Minister Zandanshatar expressed his position on the implementation of the Parliamentary Resolution No. 103 “On Increasing Mongolia’s Benefits from the Oyu Tolgoi Deposit,” adopted by the State Great Khural in 2021. The Prime Minister emphasized the need to consider the issues related to the Oyu Tolgoi project in a holistic manner to ensure so that Mongolia benefits from the project. Specifically, Prime Minister Zandanshatar emphasized that the parties should work together to resolve issues including transparency of operations, procurement, taxation, and environment, especially water use, as a package, and expressed his proposal to establish a working group consisting of specialists on these issues.
Rio Tinto Copper Chief Executive Katie Jackson expressed that she is open to be at the negotiating table and working together on the issues that are awaiting resolution.
The meeting was attended by CEO of Erdenes Mongol LLC Narantsogt Sanjaa, CEO of Rio Tinto Mongolia LLC Amarjargal Khenchbish, and Director of Growth and Development of the company Monkhsukh Sukhbaatar, reported the Media and Public Relations Department of the Government.

Construction of Selbe City to Cost MNT 25 Trillion www.montsame.mn
Tenders for Packages 3 and 4 of the “Selbe City Housing Project” will be re-announced as divided into five separate lots.
In connection with this, First Deputy of the Governor of the Capital City Davaadalai Tumendalai, Chief Executive Director of the “Selbe 20-Minute City Corporation” U. Baatar, and construction representatives gave statements.
First Deputy of the Governor of the Capital City Davaadalai Tumendalai stated, “The Selbe City project is of the highest priority among the 24 mega projects implemented by the Governor’s Office of the Capital City. Selbe City will become the first ’20-minute city’ that contributes to reducing air pollution and creates a comfortable living environment for citizens. Ulaanbaatar experienced major urban development between 1965 and 1985. The first urban development of similar scale since then is commencing with the Selbe City project, covering 158 hectares of land. In other words, it is as large as the areas of the 3rd and 4th, and the Micro districts combined. In addition to apartments, the Selbe City will incorporate electricity and thermal systems, clean and wastewater infrastructures, green facilities, schools, kindergartens, and essential service centers. The entire project has been divided into 45 separate work packages. While the first 11 work packages will encompass engineering infrastructure, and the next six will cover social infrastructure, packages No. 20 to 45 will focus on commercial and service centers through private-public partnerships. Funding of USD 500 million was raised through international bonds. The construction will be launched using direct investments totaling MNT 2.3 trillion through private-public partnerships. According to preliminary estimations, the private sector plans to invest approximately MNT 20 trillion. In total, the development project will cost MNT 25 trillion.”
As per request from the Mongolian associations in the construction sector, the “Selbe City” project team held two online meetings with investors and obtained permission to divide tenders for Packages 3 and 4 into five separate packages. Within the first Work Package, 11 blocks will be constructed, while in Packages 2 to 5, 48 blocks of nine-story residential buildings, with a capacity of 71 households each, will be built. A total of 198 entities have submitted proposals and requests for the 26 Packages of the Selbe City project. The project is still receiving proposals and requests from private entities.
...

Cooperation with ADB in Shifting Ger Districts to Solar Energy Discussed www.montsame.mn
Chairman of the Citizens' Representatives Khural of the Capital City Bayar Amarbayasgalan and Deputy Governor in charge of Social Policy, Green Development, and Air and Environmental Pollution Amartuvshin Amgalanbayar met with Director of Energy Product Development at the Asian Development Bank Cindy Cisneros-Tiangco and other officials.
The sides exchanged views on initial investment and infrastructure development required for introducing solar energy in Ulaanbaatar’s ger areas.
This year, the capital city plans to insulate 51,000 households and convert to gas or electric heating. Households that fully shifted to gas or electric heating will be eligible for utility subsidies. The city also plans to expand policies promoting solar panels, renewable and hydrogen energy, and residential development.
Deputy Governor Amartuvshin noted that the capital aims to connect 1,000 households to solar energy by 2028, with 47 households connected last year and 200 more to follow in the Chingeltei District this year.
The Asian Development Bank representatives emphasized that it is effective to develop and introduce renewable energy technologies that suit the winter climate of Mongolia and implement technical assistance projects. They also expressed their view that as solar and wind power production costs less and relies on domestic resources, it will greatly contribute to Mongolia’s energy security and independence.
The parties agreed to sign a project agreement on transitioning ger districts from coal to solar energy during their next meeting.
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