Luxembourg's International Development Support for Mongolia Contributes to 50% Reduction in Infant Mortality www.chronicle.lu

The Directorate for Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Action in Luxembourg's Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs has reported that Minister Paulette Lenert met Radnaabazar Altangerel, Ambassador of Mongolia in Belgium and Luxembourg on Thursday 18 July 2019.

Foreign workers in Mongolia increased by 4.8 thousand www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ At the end of second quarter of 2019, 9.7 thousand foreign workers from 95 foreign countries were employed with labour contract in Mongolia. Compared with the same period of previous year, the number of countries increased by 3, while the number of foreign workers increased by 90 people or 0.9 percent.

Mongolia's industrial output rises 12.6 percent in H1 www.xinhuanet.com

ULAN BATOR, July 18 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia's industrial output reached 8.4 trillion Mongolian tugriks (3.12 billion U.S. dollars) in the first half of 2019, a 12.6 percent increase year-on-year, the country's national statistics office said Thursday.

Kremlin Opens Door to Changing Constitution as Succession Looms www.bloomberg.com

The Kremlin raised the possibility of changing Russia’s constitution after a top lawmaker proposed bolstering parliament’s powers, in a move that could help to extend President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

The idea of constitutional amendments, including allowing parliament a say in forming the government, received “a widespread response” and are “a matter for discussion,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on a conference call Wednesday.

Putin in 2024 must step down as president to avoid violating a constitutional ban on more than two consecutive terms. While he’s previously ruled out changing the constitution to remain as president, advisers are examining ways to effectively prolong his grip on power, which is already the longest since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

The Kremlin is considering changing the electoral system in an effort to secure its lock on the lower house of parliament in 2021 elections amid a plunge in popularity of the ruling United Russia party, according to people familiar with the preparations. Keeping a strong hold on the legislature, known as the State Duma, would widen Putin’s room for maneuver.

It could potentially allow him to switch roles to retain power as head of the ruling party and prime minister with expanded constitutional authority at the expense of the presidency, according to two people close to the Kremlin and a ruling-party legislator.

State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, a key Putin ally, used an op-ed article Wednesday in Parlamentskaya Gazeta, the official publication of parliament, to argue that Russia must fix the “lack of a necessary balance between the work of the legislative and executive branches.”

Selecting ministers
This means “at a minimum” allowing lawmakers to take part in selecting government ministers, and “this will require changes to the Constitution,” Volodin said. Currently, parliament votes to approve the prime minister and the government team he or she selects.

Volodin said he was arguing for only minor “targeted” changes that didn’t fundamentally alter the balance of power in Russia, and his article didn’t mention the succession issue.

While pro-government members of Parliament mostly backed the idea, one senior United Russia lawmaker urged caution and the head of the Kremlin’s human rights commission, Mikhail Fedotov, said he opposed any change to the constitution.

The Kremlin’s efforts to find alternative means of keeping Putin in power haven’t gotten very far.

Efforts to coax the leader of neighboring Belarus into a potential merger with Russia — which would enable Putin to take over as head of the united state — have floundered. Meanwhile, the move earlier this year by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to step down while retaining a foreign policy and security role isn’t seen by many as a realistic model in Russia because the new president could theoretically still challenge Putin.

Mongolia and Spain to develop cooperation in the field of environmental protection www.qazaqtimes.com

On July 17, Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia B. Battsetsg received Ambassador of the Kingdom of Spain in Mongolia, concurrently Rafael Deskallar, reports Montsame. R. Descallar noted that he was pleased to take part in the presentation of the book Spanish Stories, translated from Spanish into Mongolian in conjunction with the bookshop Intern. The ambassador also spoke about the planned work that will contribute to the expansion of Mongolian-Spanish relations and cooperation in the field of tourism, sustainable development and the environment, the organization of inter-MFA consultations in Madrid and the formation of new opportunities for Mongolian youth in learning Spanish. Vice-Minister B. Battseg supported the proposals and initiatives voiced by the Ambassador of Spain at the meeting and expressed her readiness to make efforts to develop bilateral cooperation.

President receives invitation to visit Kazakhstan www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sent an invitation to the President of Mongolia Kh.Battulga to visit Kazakhstan.

The invitation was sent in the greeting to the President on the occasion of National Naadam holiday. The greeting reads, “On behalf of the people of Kazakhstan and my own behalf, please accept my sincere congratulations on the National holiday-Naadam. It is my pleasure to note that the friendly bilateral relations between our two countries is expanding. I am confident that the strong bilateral relations will flourish and strengthen for the good of the people of the two countries in the future. At the same time in order to stimulate friendly relations between our two countries, I would like to invite Your Excellency to visit Kazakhstan at any convenient for you time.”

On the occasion of National Naadam holiday, Kazakh Senate speaker Dariga Nazabayeva and Minister of Foreign Affairs Beibut Atamkulov also sent greetings to their Mongolian counterparts Parliament Speaker G.Zandanshatar and Foreign Minister D.Tsogtbaatar. 

Chinese domestic meat supply enough for rest of 2019 www.chinadaily.com.cn

Pork prices to continue rising in latter half of year as swine fever woes persist

The supply of meat can satisfy domestic demand in the latter half of the year as the decrease in pork production continues due to African swine fever outbreaks, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Wednesday.

Tang Ke, chief of the market and economic information department at the ministry, said at a news conference that pork prices in China have kept rising since March, and at an accelerated pace recently.

The average wholesale price of pork－the most commonly consumed meat in China－reached 21.6 yuan a kilogram ($3.10) in June, an increase of 4.7 percent compared with that in May and a rise of nearly 30 percent compared with June last year, he said.

Prices of pork will continue rising in the latter half of the year as the effect of African swine fever on the industry becomes more prominent, Tang said.

More than 140 African swine fever outbreaks have been reported in China since the first outbreak in the country was reported in Liaoning province in August. The outbreaks have resulted in the slaughter of 1.2 million hogs for prevention and control, the ministry said earlier, adding that the frequency of the outbreaks has reduced greatly this year. The illness is deadly to pigs but there has been no report that the virus could affect humans, according to the ministry.

Xin Guochang, an information monitoring official at the ministry, said despite the overall transparency of information being disclosed regarding the outbreaks, it cannot be ruled out that some farmers deliberately concealed outbreaks from authorities for various reasons.

Tang said that due to the outbreaks, the stock of female pigs for reproduction in 400 counties under its monitoring decreased by nearly 6 percent in October year-on-year, higher than the warning line of 5 percent, and the decline has been accelerating since－reaching nearly 27 percent year-on-year last month.

It takes usually 10 months between the birth of a pig and the time that it's ready to be slaughtered for the market, he said.

"Reduction in the reproduction of pigs since October has made the pork supply problem more prominent, resulting in a sustained increase in prices," he said.

However, "the supply of meat in general will be guaranteed due to increasing production of other livestock meat, … and increasing imports of pork and its products," he said.

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pork, which accounts for more than 60 percent of the total meat production in China, according to the ministry.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher in pork industry at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, predicted the stock of pigs may stop declining and the number of female pigs used for reproduction will start to rebound gradually before the end of the year once there is greater control of African swine fever outbreaks.

With the decline in the supply of pork, consumption has also started to drop, partly due to the psychological effect of the virus, which has made some people reluctant to eat pork and so they turn to other meat, he said.

"The supply of alternatives to pork, such as poultry, will increase in the next two years, which will help ease the gap between the supply and demand of pork."

New cracks in the global economy as exports tumble www.bbc.com

If you were in any doubt that the US China trade war is having an impact on Asia, look no further than Singapore's latest export figures.

Singapore saw exports fall for a second month in a row, this time by 17.3% in the month of June compared to a year ago.

This dramatic fall comes as Singapore's growth figures released last week showed a 3.4% decline in growth in comparison to the last quarter.

Canary in the coal mine?
So why should you care if Singapore is selling less of its stuff to the world than it used to?

The city state is one of the most trade-dependent economies in the world, and is often seen as a global indicator for trade.

Analysts are calling Singapore's data the "canary in the coal mine", a reference to a well-worn expression to indicate there is danger ahead.

The phrase comes from when miners used to carry caged canaries into mine shafts, to let them know if it was dangerous. The canaries would die if there was even a hint of poisonous gas in the mines, providing a warning signal for the miners to get out.

The worry amongst Asia-watchers is that Singapore's numbers are just a sign of more bad news to come from the rest of the region.

The trade war effect
There is increasing evidence to show that Asia's economies are being hit by the impact of the US-China trade war.

"Around the region it is a similar story," says Song Seng Wun, South East Asia economist for CIMB Private Bank.

"This trade war is coming at a time when global growth is slowing down after ten years of relatively stable times. Even if by some miracle a fairy taps her magic wand and the trade war disappears, all that would happen is that things would just be less bad - rather than really bad."

Firms look to new factories as tariffs bite
How worrying is China's economic slowdown?
Data from India, Indonesia and South Korea reads like a list of bad news. June was a particularly gloomy month for the three countries.

India saw exports fall by 9.7%, the first time in nine months.

Indonesia, which counts China as its biggest trading partner, also saw exports fall by 8.98% in comparison with the same period last year. And South Korea also saw exports fall by 13.5%.

All of these countries sell products ranging from palm oil and chemicals to semi-conductor chips to China. This week China posted the lowest quarterly growth it seen in close to three decades, partly on trade war worries.

President Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods now cover more than half of what China sells to the US. Which means that Chinese companies either have to cut their costs for their buyers, or sell less to the US.

And that means the countries supplying Chinese factories with products are also getting hit.

It doesn't look like it's going to get any better anytime soon. A report from the Japanese research house Nomura Holdings released this week on Asian exports shows that exports "should remain in the doldrums in the coming month".

Nomura blames this on the "lack of progress on US China trade negotiations", heightened global uncertainty weighing on corporate investment decisions and signs that that trade protectionism is being used as a 'weapon of foreign policy' around the region.

What happens next?
It isn't entirely clear yet when or if the US-China trade war will come to a resolution - or whether this is the start of a "broader shift in US policy away from free trade", as think tank Capital Economics points out.

President Trump has already indicated that Vietnam - which up to now has been a beneficiary of the US China trade war - could be next on his tariff list, and economists say Taiwan and South Korea could also be next in line.

Asia is home to the world's next generation of companies and consumers. By 2050 it could see its share of the global economy grow to 52%, according to the Asian Development Bank - which means the region would also be the main driver of global growth.

But analysts say if the US's anti-free trade trend continues and hits more of Asia's economies - that could hurt the region's long term potential growth rate - in turn hurting the rest of us.

Business confidence index shows optimistic results www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ According to a survey conducted by the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MNCCI), Business Confidence Index 2018 had shown optimistic results or 0.47 for the first time.

Fitch affirms Mongolia at 'B'; Outlook Stable www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ On July 4, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Mongolia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook.

Mongolia's ratings are supported by the country's robust growth outlook, improving fiscal metrics, and strong governance indicators. The ratings are constrained by Mongolia's narrow economic base, low external buffers, and a volatile political landscape, which can lead to sharp changes in economic policy and increases the likelihood of economic shocks.

The budget surplus was recorded at 2.6 percent of GDP in 2018, well above both the approved budget and Fitch's prior expectations. Budget outturns through end-May 2019 point to robust revenue and expenditure growth, even in the absence of new revenue-enhancing measures, which Fitch believes are consistent with the budget remaining broadly in balance in 2019. The prospect for continued fiscal outperformance into next year is considerably less certain amid a recent history of sharp increases in spending ahead of parliamentary elections, which are due to be held in mid-2020. Fitch forecasts the fiscal deficit to widen to 4 percent in 2020, above the authorities' projection of 2 percent, though we think there may be greater downside risks to the forecast owing to the political cycle.

Strong budget outturns combined with a robust economic recovery that started in early 2017 have led to a sharp decline in gross general government debt (GGGD). Fitch forecasts GGGD will fall to 60 percent of GDP by end-2019 from 70 percent a year earlier, below a peak of 93 percent in 2016. The agency's baseline forecasts continue to point to a gradual downward path for Mongolia's public debt dynamics post-2020, but our assumption for higher fiscal deficits implies GGGD will remain above the historical 'B' median of 49 percent for the foreseeable future.

The IMF has yet to conclude its sixth review of Mongolia's three-year Extended Fund Facility since late-2018 due to the outstanding completion of two prior actions pertaining to the asset quality review (AQR) of the financial sector. The IMF Article IV end-of-mission press release in June 2019 highlighted Mongolia's progress in strengthening its economic resilience, while underscoring the country's still insufficient buffers to withstand future external shocks.

External buffers have continued to strengthen, despite the delay of some IMF programme-linked disbursements. Foreign reserves were USD3.7 billion by end-May 2019, up from USD3.3 billion a year prior, and more than triple their value in early 2017. Fitch estimates foreign reserves are now equivalent to roughly 4.4x current-external payments, which puts Mongolia ahead of the 'B' median of 3.8x, and roughly on par with the 'BB' median of 4.3x, though a considerable proportion of outstanding reserves could be viewed as encumbered due to a CNY15 billion (USD2.1 billion) swap arrangement with the People's Bank of China.

Real GDP growth accelerated to 8.6 percent in 1Q19 from 6.7 percent in 2018. The strong growth performance has been in large part due to capital expenditure linked to the ongoing development of the underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, for which sustainable first production has been delayed until late 2021 or 2022. Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 7 percent in 2019 and 6 percent in 2020, broadly in line with the authorities' Medium Term Fiscal Framework assumptions, and considerably above the 'B' median of 3 percent.

source: fitchratings.com