1 GOLD AND COPPER PRICES SURGE WWW.UBPOST.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      2 REGISTRATION FOR THE ULAANBAATAR MARATHON 2025 IS NOW OPEN WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      3 WHY DONALD TRUMP SHOULD MEET KIM JONG- UN AGAIN – IN MONGOLIA WWW.LOWYINSTITUTE.ORG  PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      4 BANK OF MONGOLIA PURCHASES 281.8 KILOGRAMS OF PRECIOUS METALS IN MARCH WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      5 P. NARANBAYAR: 88,000 MORE CHILDREN WILL NEED SCHOOLS AND KINDERGARTENS BY 2030 WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      6 B. JAVKHLAN: MONGOLIA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES REACH USD 5 BILLION WWW.GOGO.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      7 185 CASES OF MEASLES REGISTERED IN MONGOLIA WWW.AKIPRESS.COM PUBLISHED:2025/04/02      8 MONGOLIAN JUDGE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE APPEALS CHAMBER OF THE ICC WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/01      9 HIGH-PERFORMANCE SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER TO BE ESTABLISHED IN PHASES WWW.MONTSAME.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/01      10 LEGAL INCONSISTENCIES DISRUPT COAL TRADING ON EXCHANGE WWW.UBPOST.MN PUBLISHED:2025/04/01      УСТСАНД ТООЦОГДОЖ БАЙСАН УЛААНБУРХАН ӨВЧИН ЯАГААД ЭРГЭН ТАРХАХ БОЛОВ? WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     САНГИЙН ЯАМ: ДОТООД ҮНЭТ ЦААСНЫ АРИЛЖАА IV/16-НААС МХБ-ЭЭР НЭЭЛТТЭЙ ЯВАГДАНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     МОНГОЛБАНКНЫ ҮНЭТ МЕТАЛЛ ХУДАЛДАН АВАЛТ ӨМНӨХ САРААС 56 ХУВИАР, ӨМНӨХ ОНЫ МӨН ҮЕЭС 35.1 ХУВИАР БУУРАВ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     Б.ЖАВХЛАН: ГАДААД ВАЛЮТЫН НӨӨЦ ТАВАН ТЭРБУМ ДОЛЛАРТ ХҮРСЭН WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     1072 ХУВЬЦААНЫ НОГДОЛ АШИГ 93 500 ТӨГРӨГИЙГ ЭНЭ САРД ОЛГОНО WWW.EAGLE.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     Н.УЧРАЛ: Х.БАТТУЛГА ТАНД АСУУДЛАА ШИЙДЭХ 7 ХОНОГИЙН ХУГАЦАА ӨГЧ БАЙНА WWW.NEWS.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     “XANADU MINES” КОМПАНИ "ХАРМАГТАЙ" ТӨСЛИЙН ҮЙЛ АЖИЛЛАГААНЫ УДИРДЛАГЫГ “ZIJIN MINING”-Д ШИЛЖҮҮЛЭЭД БАЙНА WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     ТӨМӨР ЗАМЫН БАРИЛГЫН АЖЛЫГ ЭНЭ САРЫН СҮҮЛЭЭР ЭХЛҮҮЛНЭ WWW.MONTSAME.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     “STEPPE GOLD”-ИЙН ХУВЬЦААНЫ ХАНШ 4 ХУВИАР ӨСЛӨӨ WWW.BLOOMBERGTV.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/02     ҮЙЛДВЭРЛЭЛИЙН ОСОЛ ӨНГӨРСӨН ОНД ХОЁР ДАХИН НЭМЭГДЖЭЭ WWW.GOGO.MN НИЙТЭЛСЭН:2025/04/01    

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MBCC “Doing Business with Mongolia seminar and Christmas Receptiom” Dec 10. 2024 London UK MBCCI London UK Goodman LLC

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Balance of payments reaches 551.5 million USD www.theubposts.com

According to the data released by the Mongol Bank, the balance of payments showed a surplus of 551.49 million USD as of the end of August. This is a three-fold increase compared to the profit in the same period last year, reports Bloombergtv.
In terms of foreign trade, the Mongol Bank points out that the balance of payments is still expected to be profitable at the end of the year, along with the decrease in the import of consumption and industrial inputs. In other words, due to the recovery of trade port operations with China and the improvement of transportation conditions, the physical volume of coal exports has reached a historical high in 2023.
Also, the prices of major mineral products such as copper, coal, and iron ore in the international market are still higher than the average level during the pandemic, which will increase the income generated from export and is expected to increase by 2.2 billion USD from the previous year, according to the Central Bank.
This year, the annual investment of the Oyu Tolgoi project is expected to be about 1.2 billion USD, but as the transition to sustainable production will decrease from 2024, foreign direct investment will decrease, so the Central Bank clarifies that a replacement capital flow is needed.
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Advancing the Mongolia–US strategic economic partnership www.eastasiaforum.org

Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene visited Washington DC on the invitation of US Vice President Kamala Harris in August 2023. The high-level bilateral meeting envisages a deepening of US–Mongolia economic relations in diverse sectors, such as critical minerals, aviation and trade.
As global powers continue to race for partnerships and resources, Mongolia’s natural resources are valuable and critical for its national economy. The incumbent government’s strategy to attract investment revolves around capitalising on the critical minerals with immediate neighbours Russia and China, as well as ‘third neighbour’ partners like the United States, South Korea France, and other developed nations.
The United States and Mongolia established a strategic partnership in 2019 during the administrations of former presidents Donald Trump and Battulga Khaltmaa. President Joe Biden’s administration further committed to strengthening the United States’ long-term position in the Indo-Pacific, which includes Mongolia.
The US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Mongolia’s third neighbour foreign policy provide a robust foundation for the two countries to strengthen Mongolia’s democratic institutions, economic diversity and civil society. The Biden administration’s courting of Ulaanbaatar indicates a growing US interest in boosting economic ties, amid its tensions with Moscow and Beijing.
The high-level meetings between Mongolian and US leaders provide the working mechanism of Mongolia’s third neighbour foreign policy. The changing geopolitical environment in Northeast Asia remains a challenge for Ulaanbaatar’s economic endeavours. Collegial relationships with global partners — including immediate neighbours Russia and China, and the United States — are the cornerstone of Ulaanbaatar’s foreign policy. So Mongolia must be vigilant, stable and flexible with its third neighbour’s pursuits.
Given Mongolia’s geographical constraint of being landlocked between two major US adversaries — Russia and China — strengthening strategic partnership with Washington requires flexibility and a systematic diplomatic approach to accelerate economic collaboration.
In 2018, before establishing the strategic partnership, the US Congress proposed the Mongolia Third Neighbor Trade Act. The bill was reintroduced to Congress in 2019 and 2021, adding to delays. If approved, Mongolia’s high-quality cashmere and textiles could be exported to the United States duty-free.
Another effort to improve Mongolia’s legal environment for trade is the signing of the US–Mongolia Transparency Agreement in 2017. This 2017 trade agreement represented the first stand-alone agreement on international trade and investment transparency signed by the United States. In the past, the United States has only ever negotiated transparency commitments as a part of broader agreements. Negotiating a stand-alone agreement with Mongolia concretely builds on cooperation between the United States and Mongolia and makes it possible for economic activities to accelerate.
The bilateral trading relationship continues to flourish, with Mongolia’s exports to the United States increasing at an annualised rate of 1.84 per cent between 1995 and 2021. Even so, Washington still requires more action from the Mongolian government.
In January 2023, US Ambassador to Mongolia Richard Buangan stated his concern to the American Chamber of Commerce in Mongolia on the country’s opaque legislative processes and investment climate that remains ‘unattractive for investors and challenging for importers and exporters’. In an effort to deepen US–Mongolia economic ties, the US Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Jose W Fernandez met with senior government officials and other stakeholders in Ulaanbaatar in June 2023.
On a later visit to Washington, Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene also signed the US–Mongolia Open Skies Agreement into implementation. The US Department of Transportation noted that ‘the Agreement will facilitate greater air connectivity between the United States and Mongolia and will provide the legal framework for nonstop passenger flights’. Mongolia is now the 132nd US Open Skies partner. In addition, Mongolia received its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner in August 2023 and will be starting a direct flight from San Francisco to Ulaanbaatar.
But Mongolia will still need to strengthen and accelerate economic ties with Moscow and Beijing via bilateral and trilateral channels, such as the Russia–Mongolia–China Economic Corridor. Other trilateral meetings also serve as an important economic gateway, such as the US–Mongolia–South Korea or the US–Mongolia–Japan partnerships.
From a geopolitical standpoint, as the Russia–Ukraine war and US–China trade tensions continue to destabilise the region and the world, small states like Mongolia often face a conundrum. Maintaining a balanced approach is necessary for continuing Mongolia’s historical connectivity of comprehensive strategic partnerships with Moscow and Beijing.
In the short-to-medium term, Beijing will remain a strong economic partner for Mongolia as an immediate neighbour and a top investment source for Mongolian copper ore, coal briquettes and iron ore. But Mongolia is now a candidate for the Minerals Security Partnership, an initiative with 14 countries — mostly Western — that aims to bolster sustainable investment in critical minerals’ mining, processing and recycling.
Mongolia must ensure that its foreign policy remains flexible and diversified to support its economic and social development.
BY
Bolor Lkhaajav is Researcher specialising in Mongolia, China, Russia, Japan, East Asia and the Americas.
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The 8-Year-Old Boy at the Heart of a Fight Over Tibetan Buddhism www.nytimes.com

The boy had seemed destined for a life of affluence and earthly pursuits. Born into the family behind a major mining conglomerate in Mongolia, he might have been picked to someday lead the company from its steel-and-glass headquarters in the country’s capital.
Instead, the 8-year-old is now at the heart of a struggle between the Dalai Lama and the Chinese Communist Party.
He was just a toddler when everything changed. On a visit to a vast monastery in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, known for a towering Buddha statue gilded in gold, his father brought him and his twin brother into a room where they and seven other boys were given a secret test.
The children were shown a table strewn with religious objects. Some of them refused to leave their parents’ sides. Others were drawn to the colorful candy that had been placed as distractions. This boy, A. Altannar, was different. He picked out a set of prayer beads and put it around his neck. He rang a bell used for meditation. He walked over to a monk in the room and playfully climbed on his legs.
“These were very special signs,” said Bataa Mishigish, a religious scholar who observed the boy with two senior monks. “We just looked at each other and didn’t say a word.”
They had found the 10th reincarnation of the Bogd, one of the three most important figures in Tibetan Buddhism and, for many, the spiritual leader of Mongolia, where nearly half the population is Buddhist.
For the next seven years, the monks kept the identity of the Bogd, known formally as the Jebtsundamba Khutughtu, a secret.
Then in March, the Dalai Lama introduced the boy at a ceremony in India in front of throngs of worshipers, his tiny frame engulfed by a maroon deel, the traditional Mongolian gown, with his doe eyes and spiky crew cut peeking out above a white surgical mask.
The news that the 10th Bogd had been chosen was cause for celebration in Mongolia.
The Bogd is a symbol of Mongolia’s identity, a position dating back nearly 400 years to descendants of the Mongol emperor Kublai Khan, who embraced Tibetan Buddhism and helped it spread across China and other conquered lands. In the early 20th century, a Tibetan-born Bogd (pronounced bogged) was the theocratic ruler of Mongolia, revered as a god-king figure. Today, the title adorns banks, cashmere boutiques and auto dealerships. When someone sneezes, Mongolians say “Bogd bless you.”
But who gets to be the Bogd is a sensitive question with implications for Mongolia, China and Tibet. The Chinese Communist Party has sought to assert its authority over Tibetan Buddhism even outside China’s borders, part of a long campaign to tighten its control over Tibet.
China regards the 88-year-old Dalai Lama — who fled Tibet as a young man in 1959 and has been living in exile in India ever since — as an enemy determined to free Tibet from Chinese rule. Though officially atheist, the party has asserted that only it can name his reincarnation, and those of other high lamas.
After the last Bogd died in 2012, there was concern that China would try to choose or influence the selection of the next one. In 1995, China kidnapped a boy the Dalai Lama had named as the Panchen Lama, the second-most-recognizable figure in Tibetan Buddhism.
So when the Dalai Lama appeared with A. Altannar in public this year, it was a defiant assertion of his influence over the faith and a challenge to Beijing’s claims over succession. And it put Mongolia on the spot, straining its delicate relationship with China, its much bigger and richer neighbor.
Then there is the question of whether the tradition of anointing children as lama reincarnates makes sense and still has a place in modern Mongolia. Some have also complained that elite families like the boy’s enjoy too many privileges.
Meanwhile, his American-educated parents are coming to grips with giving up their hopes and dreams, for their son to serve a religious calling they did not choose.
The boy, a third-grader with a fondness for TikTok and video games, now faces decades of theological training, a lifetime of celibacy, and the grave responsibility of having to defend Mongolian Buddhism against Chinese pressure. And, in some ways, so does his twin brother.
To obscure A. Altannar’s identity and protect him from overzealous worshipers or worse, the twins, Achildai Altannar and Agudai Altannar, who are identical, are rarely seen in public without each other. In fact, neither the Dalai Lama nor the parents have publicly said which boy was introduced at the ceremony.
“We want our son to grow up in a normal environment, not under pressure, not under scrutiny of heavy teachings,” said Munkhnasan Narmandakh, 41, the boy’s mother. “If he wants to play video games, he should.”
Hope of a Faith’s Revival
When Mr. Bataa, the religious scholar, and the leaders of Gandan Monastery in Ulaanbaatar set out on the search for the next Bogd, they were flummoxed. The process of finding a reincarnation had almost been lost to time. They had to dust off old religious texts from the National Archives and consult with experts in the Dalai Lama’s office in Dharamsala, India.
The team pulled 80,000 names from the list of boys born in Ulaanbaatar in 2014 and 2015, the years after the last Bogd died. They followed an ancient custom of parsing mystical visions and astrology to winnow the selection down to 11 to take the secret test — though the families of only nine boys responded.
That afternoon, the objects that A. Altannar picked up — the necklace and the bell — had belonged to the Ninth Bogd. The monk he climbed on was the Ninth Bogd’s assistant.
In many ways, the challenges with the search underscored the weakened state of Tibetan Buddhism in Mongolia.
It had been nearly 300 years since the title of Bogd belonged to a Mongolian. After the Mongols submitted to the Chinese Qing Empire in the late 17th century, the emperor ruled that all future reincarnations of the Bogd were to be found in Tibet, to prevent a Mongol uprising.
Mongolians had long thought that the Bogd line had ended with the Eighth, a Tibetan-born lama who was revered for declaring independence from the Qing in 1911 and who died in 1924. When the Stalin era began shortly after, Communist rulers in Mongolia declared an end to the Bogd lineage. Through 70 years of socialist rule, officials suppressed the religion, killed senior lamas and monks, and razed temples.
After Mongolia’s democratic revolution in 1990, many in Mongolia were astonished when the Dalai Lama revealed that in 1936, a 4-year-old boy in Tibet had been secretly named the Ninth Bogd. He and the Dalai Lama had been friends, both fled China in 1959, and he had been living in India in obscurity.
Over the years, with the Dalai Lama’s encouragement, Buddhism re-established itself in Mongolia. Old monasteries were restored, and practitioners came out from the shadows. And the Ninth Bogd relocated there in 2011.
When he died one year later at 79, his will called for his reincarnation to be Mongolian, rather than Tibetan. The request would bind the lama closer to the people he was meant to lead.
The Shadow of Elitism
Before A. Altannar was identified as Mongolia’s spiritual leader, he was born into Mongolian business royalty.
His grandmother, Garamjav Tseden, is the founder of one of the country’s most successful private companies, Monpolymet, which started in gold mining and has since expanded into making cement. His mother, the company’s chief executive officer, once served as a judge on Mongolia’s version of “Shark Tank,” the business-oriented reality TV show.
But the family’s success and Ms. Garamjav’s former role as a member of Parliament and a patron of the previous Bogd have raised questions about privilege and elitism seeping into the process of finding a Bogd. Some, including Khulan Tsoodolyn, a prominent poet, criticized A. Altannar’s selection as an example of the elite’s monopoly on power and prestige. (She was arrested in January on unspecified espionage charges and sentenced in July to nine years in prison.)
Shortly after A. Altannar was introduced by the Dalai Lama, Unurtsetseg Naran, an independent journalist, wrote on Facebook: “Why was a rich child selected?”
The boy’s parents say Ms. Naran’s posts have fueled threats online against their family. And they reject any suggestion that they bought their son’s position.
Wealth is a sensitive topic in Mongolia, where the chasm between rich and poor remains wide. Nowhere is that more stark than in Ulaanbaatar, where a quarter of the city’s residents live in poverty — often in ramshackle districts of nomadic tents on the city’s outskirts, far from the luxury malls and hotels that stand as monuments to the nation’s mining booms.
Historically, Tibetan lamas have often come from nobility. Some observers say young lamas from wealthy families benefit from being able to have a better education — and that their affluence is a potential sign of a past life that was righteous.
But there have always been complaints that the selections of lamas have been about politics and sometimes corruption.
In the late 18th century, Emperor Qianlong of China tried to address this by drawing lots from a golden urn to select lamas. The Chinese Communist Party resurrected the “Golden Urn” system in its bid to control the selection of Buddhist lamas and limit the Dalai Lama’s influence, though few outside the country consider it legitimate.
‘Seismic Shift’ in Power Center
The naming of a Mongolian lama reincarnate ensures Mongolia will be drawn deeper into the political chess match between China and the Dalai Lama.
Mongolia relies on China to buy its exports and invest in its infrastructure. China’s imprint is on display in Ulaanbaatar, in a snaking four-lane overpass designed to ease the city’s punishing traffic, and a sports arena embossed with a logo that reads: “China Aid For Shared Future.”
For Mongolia, a wrong move in Beijing’s eyes would be costly.
It was in 2016, on a visit to Mongolia, that the Dalai Lama first said at a news conference that the Bogd had been discovered in the country — a bombshell announcement. China’s response was swift: It closed border crossings between the two countries, imposed tariffs and canceled bilateral talks.
The Dalai Lama has not visited Mongolia again since.
He now has a means to lay down a marker in Mongolia and expand the reach of his office, said Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an analyst who used to work at the National Security Council of Mongolia. The selection of a Mongolian for the role was a “seismic shift in the center of power for Tibetan Buddhism” from Dharamsala to Ulaanbaatar, he said.
There are potential ramifications for the United States government, too. A. Altannar was born in Washington, D.C., making him an American citizen. That has fueled speculation that he was chosen because his U.S. citizenship could afford him some added protection from China.
China has not commented publicly about A. Altannar’s selection, but Mongolian and foreign officials speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter say Beijing has warned Mongolia of consequences if the Bogd grows too close to the Dalai Lama.
Telo Tulku Rinpoche, the Dalai Lama’s representative in Mongolia, accused China of wanting to “control Buddhism on a global level.” He denied that A. Altannar was selected for political reasons and said the Dalai Lama’s office would have little contact with the boy.
“This is a spiritual matter,” he said.
A Child’s Life
The phone call to the boy’s family with the news of his selection came from none other than Mongolia’s then-president, Tsakhia Elbegdorj, a sign of the national significance of the position.
But Ms. Munkhnasan, A. Altannar’s mother, said her immediate response was a flat-out rejection of the idea. The parents had hoped that their boys would one day study engineering and take over the family business empire.
“We said, ‘This can’t happen,’” Ms. Munkhnasan said. “My kid was still a baby at the time, and there was no sort of pre-warning or any communication about what was about to unfold.”
Ms. Munkhnasan and her husband, Altannar Chinchuluun, wrote to the United Nations Children’s Fund, or UNICEF, appealing for help. The reincarnation process, they argued, had robbed their son of his rights.
The family rushed to Ulaanbaatar after the call with the president and demanded the monks find another boy. The monks said they would try, but the Dalai Lama said no.
Instead, he recommended giving the family time to think in the hopes they would change their minds. In the meantime, the monks promised not to reveal the boy’s name.
Still, the couple agonized over their predicament.
Mr. Altannar, 43, a mathematician at the National University of Mongolia, worried he was turning his back on his country by refusing to restore a proud Mongolian institution. Ms. Munkhnasan feared she would invite bad karma on her family if she denied Tibetan Buddhists a sacred leader.
Eventually, the two decided they would try to strike a balance. The monks could instruct the boy if he also continued with his regular education. Most important, they insisted that it would have to be up to their son when he turns 18 whether he wanted to remain the Bogd.
“It’s his decision,” Ms. Munkhnasan said.
Until then, A. Altannar must adhere to a childhood like no other.
And it is not just his own life that has changed; it’s his brother’s, too. The twins dress identically and receive the same religious training as if both were the Bogd.
Ms. Munkhnasan said she didn’t want to “sacrifice” one child for the other — having one twin live in the shadow of his brother. But she said the family would have to make do until they are more confident about A. Altannar’s safety.
The boy seems to be traversing his two worlds with growing ease. When he visited Dharamsala for his introduction by the Dalai Lama, he sat still for hours listening to his teachings.
On a recent weekday, he was attentive at school and playful with his classmates, flashing a wide smile as he ran a relay race for gym class. Later, he donned his traditional Mongolian deel to receive his regular religious instruction at the Gandan monastery. In the presence of the monks, his boyish energy was replaced by an aura of calm and maturity as he read sutras and practiced rituals.
“Of course, as a boy, he doesn’t understand everything that’s going on, but he’s definitely not rejecting it,” Ms. Munkhnasan said. “He’s very comfortable.”
“It’s like his second nature to him.”
BY
By David Pierson
David Pierson went to Mongolia to interview religious leaders, politicians, scholars and family members of a boy identified as the latest incarnation of a Tibetan spiritual leader.
Khaliun Bayartsogt contributed reporting from Ulaanbaatar, and Olivia Wang from Hong Kong.
 
 
 
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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Mongolia www.imf.org

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Mongolia on Thursday, September 14, 2023, considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.
Growth rebounded to 5.0 percent in 2022 and the external position stabilized as a result of China’s reopening, the government’s determined efforts to boost exports, and private sector financing inflows. After peaking in mid-2022, headline inflation gradually declined to 10.6 percent in June 2023 largely reflecting falling global prices. Core inflation also started to moderate. In light of the improving economic situation, a supplementary budget for 2023, passed in June 2023, introduced large and permanent increases in wages, benefits, and pensions. Strong mining sector activity and the fiscal expansion are expected to help sustain robust growth in 2023.
The procyclical fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth initially. However, with unchanged fiscal policies, inflation is expected to rise and remain above the target range set by the Bank of Mongolia (BOM) over the medium term, and external pressures could re‑emerge. These factors are likely to weigh on the non-mining sector and growth outlook from 2024 onwards. Without consolidation measures, the overall fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate from a surplus in 2022 to a large deficit by 2024, placing public debt on an upward trend, and posing a risk to Mongolia’s economic stabilization.
The risks surrounding the baseline outlook are tilted to the downside. Mongolia’s high external debt, limited external buffers, and dependance on imports and commodity exports makes it vulnerable to external shocks. Additional policy slippages before the June 2024 Parliamentary elections could pose further risks to macroeconomic stability, as could lower than targeted coal exports.
Executive Board Assessment[2]
In concluding the 2023 Article IV consultation with Mongolia, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal as follows: Mongolia's economy has stabilized from a difficult position in 2022. After multiple global shocks and policy excesses, China's reopening, the government's successful efforts to facilitate exports and rollover external debt, greater ER flexibility and tighter domestic financial conditions gradually began to yield economic dividends. The external position stabilized by late 2022 but remained weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. GIR improved and inflation moderated through 2023H2, supported by stronger exports, and weaker global food and energy prices. The full operationalization of OT’s underground copper mine in 2023Q1 was a major economic milestone. A supplementary budget for 2023 introduced large and permanent increases in wages, benefits, and pensions in anticipation large revenue gains from record high coal exports.
The procyclical fiscal stimulus is likely to boost near term growth and inflation but also increases risks of macroeconomic instability. With the stimulus, inflation is likely to rise, remaining high for longer, and external pressures could re-emerge. The economic boost from the fiscal stimulus is likely to be temporary and start fading as higher inflation erodes real incomes despite continued support to growth from the mining sector. Despite stronger exports, external buffers are likely to remain low in 2023‒25, due to a terms of trade deterioration, stronger imports related to public sector infrastructure, FDI and consumer goods, and weaker net financing inflows due to tighter global financing conditions. Downside risks dominate, including tighter global financial conditions, commodity price volatility, slower growth in China and the risk of further domestic policy slippages. Should a subset of these risks materialize, and the government’s ambitious coal export targets fall short, the economic implications could be significant.
Fiscal consolidation and adherence to fiscal rules are imperative to preserve Mongolia’s hard-won recent economic stabilization. An adjustment of 4 percent of GDP in 2023‒24 underpinned by fiscal reforms could help achieve an orderly resolution of macroeconomic and external pressures, while improving debt dynamics. Such adjustments would be in line with the stated intentions to adhere to the FSL. Fiscal reforms should prioritize capital expenditures to projects with high returns and strong performance; contain the wage bill by reversing pay supplements, holding real wages constant for a few years and gradually rationalizing civil servants; reducing tax arrears and tax expenditures; targeting social assistance; allowing greater PIT progressivity; and undertaking pension reforms.
The BOM should continue to allow ER flexibility and opportunistically accumulate GIR. Given tighter global financial conditions, the external liability management plans of domestic entities and their ability to raise adequate external financing to fund domestic operations and maintain credit lines with foreign banks should be closely monitored. The government should repay DBM's external liabilities through new external borrowing and ensure adequate enforcement of Mongolia's currency settlement law and SOE repatriation requirements.
Domestic financial conditions should be tightened to contain inflation. The effective enforcement and harmonization of macroprudential policies across banks and NBFIs could help contain salary-based consumer lending, as could the permanent cessation of quasi-fiscal operations. Domestic debt issuance through market auctions can help contain excess liquidity. While the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate, the BOM should stand ready to tighten further if inflationary pressures or dollarization increases. Strengthening BOM's operational autonomy and the monetary policy framework would help build credibility and improve policy transmission. While ending the BOM's quasi-fiscal operations is a welcome development, the outstanding balances should be transferred to the government without involving any state-owned intermediaries.
Though broadly stable, the financial sector could be vulnerable to macroeconomic pressures. Supervision should be strengthened across the financial sector and intensified for high-risk banks and operations. The key priorities are to ensure effective offsite supervision; more frequent onsite supervision of D-SIBs; avoid regulatory forbearance; and align supervisory actions with BOM communications. The end 2023 deadline for shareholder diversification should be delayed, to provide banks with more time to attract fit and proper investors. Raising shareholder limits to facilitate the improved management and operation of banks and aligning withholding and capital gains taxes with international norms, could be helpful. The BOM should urge D-SIBs to develop time-bound plans for diversification and clarify the penalties and contingency plans in case the deadline is not shifted. Aligning the AML/CFT framework with FATF requirements and enhanced implementation for high-risk sectors and activities, is crucial.
Policies to improve the business climate, address corruption and strengthen governance are critical to attracting FDI and strengthening economic resilience. The strengthened Investment Law should be urgently enacted and implemented effectively to cut red tape, the Minerals Law overhaul should be accelerated, and the insolvency framework modernized. The effective enforcement of SOE governance reforms, a decisive resolution of DBM's governance challenges, and a strong judiciary would be important. The draft Whistleblower Law should be approved by Parliament without further delay.
[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] Management has determined it meets the established criteria as set out in Board Decision No. 15207 (12/74); (i) there are no acute or significant risks, or general policy issues requiring a Board discussion; (ii) policies or circumstances are unlikely to have significant regional or global impact in the near term; and (iii) the use of Fund resources is not under discussion or anticipated.
 
 
 
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Fueling the Dragon: Russia and Mongolia's High-Stakes Coal Trade with China www.mongoliaweekly.org

China's increasing demand for coal is noticeably shaking up the global coal industry, significantly impacting Russia and Mongolia, both of whom hold vast coal reserves. Their capability to handle this accelerated coal demand could reshape these economies while posing certain challenges. This new market dynamic has currents that extend beyond commerce, with deep repercussions in politico-economic domains.
Economic Opportunities: Fueling Strategic Economic Growth
Mining and trading coal to satisfy China's growing demand can present worthwhile opportunities for both Russia and Mongolia. For Russia, increased coal trade with China could serve as an economic palliative against the sting of Western sanctions imposed due to its conflict in Ukraine.
Mongolia, improving its economy after 2008 which is considered as the global financial meltdown, has been leveraging this development as a critical shot in the arm. As per the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) report, following a brief slump, the Mongolian economy posted robust growth rates averaging 9.2% per year from 2010 to 2013, owing to a mining boom and strategic investments like Oyu Tolgoi. Despite challenges constituted by the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions on trade with China, Mongolia's primary trading partner, its economy rallied in 2022, posting a growth rate of 4.7% driven by mining production and coal & copper exports.
Ashok Lavasa, Vice President of the Asian Development Bank during his visit to Mongolia this year, has said: "ADB will support Mongolia in its development vision (Vision 2050) to become a “dynamic and modern economy with a thriving middle class by 2050."
Navigating Economic and Environmental Hurdles
Scaling up coal exports to meet China's demand isn't without formidable challenges. Overreliance on single-resource exports could chafe against the very fibers of economic diversification while creating unfair income disparities.
Moreover, this paradigm shift occurs within a broader context of global commitment to climate change benchmarks. With China still largely dependent on coal to fuel its energy mix—55-65% in the years from 2020-23—increased coal supply from Russia and Mongolia could be interpreted as contrarian to the objectives set forth in the Paris Agreement.
Furthermore, transitioning to a coal-centric export model isn't merely an issue of extraction and shipment. Essential infrastructural updates, such as reviewing the capacity of Russia’s Siberian railway network and addressing issues at Mongolia-China border crossings—where different rail gauges cause logistical consternation—need to be addressed.
Geopolitical implications to consider include the evolving China-Russia energy relationship, which could affect Mongolia as it delicately balances its links with both powers.
The easing of sanctions on Russia might be tied to an increase in coal exports which could reinforce the political alignment between China and Russia. This can cause a shift in the balance of power in the region and create challenges for Mongolia to find its footing in the coal export market amidst strong competition.
To tackle environmental challenges, regulations such as carbon pricing and emissions caps can be implemented, helping reduce the negative impacts of increased coal production and consumption.
Countering Arguments and Offering Recommendations
It's crucial to counterbalance viewpoints and proactively address challenges that may emerge. As Russia faces global criticism over its war with Ukraine, the international community could consider implementing a ban on Russian coal exports. How this influences the shared coal export market with Mongolia warrants detailed exploration.
Simultaneously, Russia’s deepening ties with China, underscored by increased energy exports, may dictate a recalibration in Mongolia's coal export strategy, requiring innovative approaches to safeguard its interests.
Concrete policy suggestions encompass a range of factors, from infrastructural investments to comprehensive resource distribution strategies that are fair and socio-economically sustainable. To truly understand the human side of these challenges, perspectives from civil society groups or local communities that are impacted must be included.
There's no disputing the significant economic opportunity for Russia and Mongolia as they fuel China's rising coal demand. However, to make the most of this upward trend, they need to address the complicated challenges head-on and balance immediate gains with long-term sustainability. Sound, strategic planning can then enable them to optimally navigate the shifting currents of global coal trade.
BY
Guest author bio: Abdul Rafay Afzal is from Lahore, Pakistan currently a law student at Liverpool John Moores University, UK. He writes perceptive columns on geopolitics, international relations, and legal affairs etc. providing unique insights into the global landscape in different Pakistani and International Newspapers and Media outlets in English & Urdu languages.
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Chinzorig Crowned Champion at Asian Games Hangzhou www.montsame.mn

Bronze Medalist of the World Championships and Honored Athlete of Mongolia, B. Chinzorig, took home the gold in the men's 57-63.5 kg weight class of the boxing competition at the Hangzhou 2022 Asian Games.
Chinzorig faced off against Taiwanese boxer Lai Chu-en in the championship bout and defeated Lai with a score of 5:0, clinching Team Mongolia's first gold medal at the Asian Games 2022.
Building a successful career, he won a silver medal at the Jakarta Palembang 2018 Asian Games. Four years later, he stood atop the podium, proudly listening to the National Anthem of Mongolia.
Furthermore, B. Chinzorig became the 25th gold medalist among Mongolian athletes who competed in the Asian Games and the third Mongolian gold medalist in the boxing competition at the Asian Games.
In addition, Mongolia claimed the silver medal in esports competition. As of October 5, 2023, Mongolia stands at 22nd of the medal tally with 13 medals, including one gold, four silver, and eight bronze medals.
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Fluorite plant launches www.theubposts.com

Fluorite concentration plant held its opening ceremony on October 2. The plant is established by Mongolchekhmetal LLC and is located in Bayantsagaan soum of Tuv Province. Mongolia ranks fourth in the world in terms of fluorite reserves. Therefore, Mongolchekhmetal LLC stated that it intends to move from mining to processing and to exporting value-added products.
The company has been producing fluorite since 1982 and produces 25,000 to 30,000 tons of metallurgical concentrate per year and exports more than 80,000 tons of low-grade ore to Russia and China. The company’s Chuluut Tsagaan Del mine has been exploited since 1981, and it is estimated that it has reserves of 3.7 million tons or about 20 years. Construction of the plant started in 2020.
The raw material of the plant is a pile of ore that has been accumulated for many years, which will now be processed. Therefore, in addition to extracting the concentrate, it is possible to mix fine sand, which is a dry waste, with a small amount of coal and produce building bricks and blocks at the next stage.
The Chairman of the Standing Committee on Industrialization Policy emphasized that the process of mineral raw materials is in line with the state and government policies for the development of industry, as well as its importance for the development of local communities and the livelihood of citizens and families.
The concentration plant has the capacity to process 200,000 tons of ore and produce 64,000 tons of fluorite concentrate with a grade of more than 97 percent. The Chuluut Tsagaan Del mine has 3.7 million tons of fluorspar with a grade of 43 percent, and because of the mining carried out since 2013, 400,000 tons of ore with a grade of 30 to 35 percent has been accumulated. China’s Xinhai Group was responsible for the technology, equipment, and testing of the plant for flotation of crushed and powdered ore.
To concentrate one kg of ore in the plant, 3.3 liters of water will be used, and a recirculation reservoir has been established to reuse 86 percent of the used water. It is also possible to use the dry waste from the factory as a raw material for building materials. Currently, Mongolia exports 100,000 tons of fluorite per year, and the company states that once the concentration plant starts operating at full capacity, this figure will increase by 60 percent. The fluorite concentrate will be exported from November. More than 280 people are working in the mine and concentrator in Chuluut Tsagaan Del, of whom about 100 are local citizens.
 
 
 
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Mongolia's forex reserves exceed 4 bln USD www.xinhuanet.com

Mongolia's foreign exchange (forex) reserves have exceeded 4 billion U.S. dollars again, Minister of Economy and Development Chimed Khurelbaatar said Tuesday.
The country's forex reserves stood at 4.124 billion dollars at the end of September, the third straight monthly rise.
Due to the deepening of a current account deficit caused by external and internal economic conditions, the country's forex reserves had shrunk to 2.695 billion dollars at the end of August 2022, hitting the lowest level since 2017, according to the country's central bank.
The country's forex reserves hit an all-time high of 4.892 billion dollars at the end of April 2021.
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China bans Mongolian theatre production, disregards cultural diversity www.wionews.com

Chinese authorities have banned a Mongolian theatre production by shutting down the power to the Ulaan Theatre in Hohhot, in China's northern region of Inner Mongolia, where the production was due to be staged.
In addition to shutting down the power, Chinese authorities also blocked 130 production staff from entering the theatre and put the cast under constant surveillance.
Thousands of theatergoers who had purchased tickets to the performance were sent away without any valid reason for doing so. All this played out just 30 minutes before the first performance was set to begin.
The production, titled "The Mongol Khan," is scheduled to open at the London Coliseum next month. The latest ban is part of a growing trend of cultural suppression by the Chinese government.
In recent years, Beijing has cracked down on Mongolian language, culture, and history. This is being done by China in an effort to assimilate the dwindling Mongolian population into the Han Chinese majority.
Beijing's crackdown on Mongolian culture
The Chinese government carries out these acts under the garb of promoting "national unity". But in reality, all that it is trying to seek with the imposition of such bans is to simply trying to erase Mongolian culture and identity.
Ulaanbaatar has been careful to manage its relationship with its superpower neighbour and largest trading partner. The director of "The Mongol Khan," Hero Baatar, has said that he is determined to bring the production to London, despite the the pushback in China.
Mongolian artists and cultural workers have often voiced their concerns and are fighting to preserve their culture.
“The production team of 130 members, including six British nationals, were expelled from the theatre building where £2 million [$3.8 million] worth of set and technical equipment was set up,” the Mongol Khan spokeswoman said adding, “The production team was also banned from wearing traditional Mongolian dress in public.”
Inner Mongolia is an autonomous region in northern China. It borders Mongolia to the north and west. Beijing claims to have improved the region's living and educational standards. Being one of the most populous regions in China, it has experienced double-digit economic growth for the majority of the last two decades.
Mongolia-China relations are marred due to their shared historical background. Genghis Khan, the Mongol leader, conquered Beijing in 1215.
Activists in May asserted Lhamjab Borjigin, a well-known Inner Mongolian author, was deported to China after being captured by Chinese authorities while residing in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. Herders in the Zaruud area were struck by vehicles in June while attempting to stop a Chinese business from occupying their pastures.
Then, in September, it was mandated that all Inner Mongolian schools teaching in Mongolian switch to teaching in Chinese.
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Prime Minister Orders to Intensify Anti-Corruption Fight in Ulaanbaatar www.montsame.mn

At the regular Cabinet Meeting held today Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai ordered to intensify the "Five W" operation to fight corruption in the capital city and pledged that the Government will give all-round support for the fight against corruption in the capital.
The Prime Minister of Mongolia tasked the members of the government and the authorities of ministries and agencies to take actions in the following directions within the plan to solve the problems of the capital in a comprehensive way.
It includes:
1. To intensify the 5 W Operation in the capital and conduct a broad inspection
2. To clarify the legal framework of the capital
3. To make complete structural reforms
4. To update the standard of quality of life in the capital
5. To rectify unplanned land allocation and urban development
Within this goal, the Premier introduced the political decision to appoint Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs Nyambaatar Khishgee as the Governor of the Capital City and the Mayor of Ulaanbaatar.
"The Government will pay special attention to solving the problems that have arisen in the capital," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve, Minister of Mongolia and Chairman of the Government of Mongolia.
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