Copper prices plunged on Wednesday as Donald Trump reclaimed the White House, with a surging dollar pressuring commodities. At the same time, traders weighed the ramifications of his views on trade, geopolitics and the US economy.

The red metal dropped the biggest since May as Trump’s win rippled through global markets, sending the dollar on course for its best day since 2020.

Copper sank as much as 4.3% during a broad selloff on the London Metal Exchange, tracking steep losses in the Chinese yuan.

The metal also fell 4.6% to $9,389 a tonne in early morning trade on the Comex in New York.

Alongside the immediate impact of a weakening currency in the world’s top commodities consumer, traders are also bracing for a potential knock to demand if Trump follows through with pledges to deepen the US-China trade war.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

A gauge of steel companies’ stocks jumped as much as 12%, the biggest intraday gain since March 2020, on anticipation that Trump will return to the White House favoring one of his top priorities during his first administration: tariffs on steel imports from across the globe.

Investors will also be mindful that Beijing could respond with stimulus measures to invigorate domestic demand, said Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie.

(With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)

During Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Mongolia on Oct. 28-29 for a meeting with President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, Tokayev emphasized the need to increase cooperation in the mining industry alongside other important economic sectors. He noted that both sides require anchor projects capable of providing a significant boost to the development of economic cooperation. Kazakhstan became Mongolia’s first strategic partner country in Central Asia.

The visit was preceded by a meeting between the two leaders at the SCO summit in Astana, where the parties agreed to establish a Kazakhstan-Mongolia Business Council and adopt a roadmap for enhancing trade and economic cooperation. Despite historically low levels of trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Mongolia, which did not exceed $200 million, Kazakhstan’s significant exports compared to imports from Mongolia indicate potential for growth. The last state visit by a Kazakh leader to Mongolia was in 2008, and only after Tokayev’s visit this year was the business council launched between the two states.

The key factors facilitating the state visit to Mongolia include Mongolia’s potential membership in the Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Area (FTA EAEU) and the development of alternative transport routes for Mongolia, especially considering the European Union countries’ interest in Mongolian mineral resources.

Mongolia on the Path to EAEU Free Trade Area

During the visit, Tokayev emphasized that Kazakhstan and Mongolia closely cooperate at both international and regional levels, maintaining similar positions on many current issues. He noted that Kazakhstan supports Mongolia’s intention to conclude a Free Trade Agreement with the EAEU.

Since 2022, Tokayev has visited almost all countries with which the EAEU has concluded free trade agreements: Iran, Singapore, and Vietnam. Additionally, a visit to Serbia, which has been a member of the EAEU FTA since 2021, is expected. In 2023, Tokayev stated that the EAEU should expand free trade areas with other countries.

Mongolia is actively pursuing the conclusion of a provisional free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, expecting to complete negotiations by the end of 2024. The country aims to reduce or eliminate import duties on certain categories of goods, which will lower the cost of imports and enhance the competitiveness of products in the domestic market. Special emphasis is placed on increasing the export of livestock products, obtaining exemption from import taxes in EAEU countries.

Strategic directions of cooperation

In the field of economic cooperation, Mongolia aims to develop bilateral trade and improve market access by eliminating trade barriers. Investments and cooperation in the development of national production capacities and industrial enterprises are intended to enhance the competitiveness of the country’s industry. Progress in implementing the agreement has been noted since 2015, when the initial cooperation agreement between Mongolia and the EAEU was signed. In 2020, a joint research group was established to explore the possibility of concluding a free trade agreement, and in May 2024, following a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, negotiations on a provisional trade agreement officially began. At this stage, the parties have already agreed on the framework of the future trade agreement, indicating significant progress in the negotiations.

In trade and investment, joint projects are planned in raw material processing and the development of logistics infrastructure. This progress also has a substantial impact on relations with Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and Mongolia intend to increase bilateral trade turnover to $500 million, overcoming the current level of $150 million per year. Kazakhstan supports Mongolia’s aspiration to conclude a free trade agreement with the EAEU and facilitates the creation of the Mongolian-Kazakh Business Council. A roadmap for enhancing trade and economic cooperation for 2025–2027 has been signed, including cooperation in agriculture, industry and energy.

It is expected that Mongolia’s economy will grow by 6.5% in the coming years due to strengthening trade ties with the EAEU, with a nearly 25% increase in Mongolia’s trade turnover with Russia and other EAEU countries forecasted. The elimination or reduction of import duties on certain goods will make trade more affordable and stimulate economic integration. Mongolia’s transition from an observer status to an active trading partner of the EAEU marks a significant step in strengthening regional economic ties. The conclusion of a provisional free trade agreement opens new opportunities for the development of key sectors of Mongolia’s economy, including infrastructure, energy, agriculture and industry. Strategic partnerships with the EAEU and its individual members, such as Kazakhstan and Russia, contribute to sustainable economic growth and Mongolia’s integration into regional economic processes, while maintaining its multi-vector foreign policy.

Future of Kazakhstan and Mongolia in the global economy

Tokayev’s visit to Mongolia and the subsequent agreements demonstrate both countries’ commitment to strengthening their economic and strategic partnership. The establishment of a permanent Mongolia-Kazakhstan Business Council and the signing of commercial agreements indicate a serious intent to develop the mining industry and optimize transport routes for exporting strategic resources such as uranium and rare earth metals to European markets. Despite existing geopolitical and logistical challenges, including the necessity of transit through Russia or China and associated risks, cooperation between Kazakhstan and Mongolia opens new opportunities for diversifying economic ties and sustainable growth.

The inclusion of Mongolia in the EAEU Free Trade Area and the activation of cooperation with the European Union underscore both countries’ multi-vector approach to foreign policy and economic development. The successful implementation of anchor projects could become a key factor in ensuring Europe’s energy security and stimulating regional economic growth. Strategic partnerships with the EAEU and its individual members, such as Kazakhstan and Russia, contribute to sustainable economic growth and Mongolia’s integration into regional economic processes, all while maintaining its multi-vector foreign policy. Together, Kazakhstan and Mongolia are laying the foundation for mutually beneficial and sustainable cooperation, advancing the development of both countries and strengthening their positions on the international stage.

The author is Eldaniz Gusseinov, a non-resident research fellow at Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies of the Ibn Haldun University, Istanbul.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.

In October 2024, the Central Bank of Mongolia purchased 1,902.5 kg of precious metals, bringing the total amount to 14.1 tons since the beginning of the year. This figure represents a 0.6 percent decrease compared to the same period last year.

Since the beginning of the year, the Darkhan-Uul branch of the Central Bank of Mongolia has purchased 670.9 kg of precious metals, whereas the Bayan-Khongor branch- 1,085.7 kg.

The Central Bank of Mongolia determines the purchase price of precious metals based on global market prices. In October 2024, the average price for purchasing gold was MNT 292,856.04.

The “Mongolia Investment Forum: Singapore 2024,” aimed at introducing Mongolia’s capital market to international investors, particularly those in Singapore, as well as opening up new investment opportunities, took place in Singapore on November 4-5, 2024.

In his opening speech, Chairman of the Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia D. Bayarsaikhan highlighted that the growth of financial and capital markets of Mongolia in recent years is the outcome of policies and actions implemented by the Parliament, the Government, and the regulatory organizations on diversifying the economy, reducing the bank shareholding concentration, creating over-the-counter market and policy reforms of the privatization of state-owned companies, lowering securities trading commissions and fees, improving market regulations to meet international standards, and strengthening the foundation of professional investors. Mr. Bayarsaikhan stated, “Today’s event is an example of Mongolia’s focus on developing cooperation with international regulatory organizations and enhancing foreign direct investment flows into Mongolia in order to attract further investors. I am confident that this Forum would contribute to connecting the Mongolian capital market with the capital markets of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, promoting the Mongolian capital market to foreign investors, and raising funds from the international market.”

During the Forum, representatives of Mongolian business organizations presented the development of the Mongolian capital market, newly introduced products and services, and investment opportunities. Furthermore, Mongolian representatives met with Singaporean investors and exchanged views on opportunities for cooperation, according to the Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia.

As the appeal hearing for Mongolian journalist Unurtsetseg Naran — sentenced to prison earlier this year — approaches, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is sounding the alarm about a concerning lack of transparency in these legal proceedings. The hearing, which will take place behind closed doors, sets a dangerous precedent that could pave the way for a wider crackdown on press freedom in Mongolia.

On 5 November, Chief Judge of the Capital City Court of Criminal Appeals announced that the entire appeal trial of Unurtsetseg Naran, editor-in-chief of the news website Zarig.mn, scheduled for 7 November, will be held behind closed doors.

The journalist was sentenced to 4 years and 9 months in prison in July after a closed-door trial held at the Criminal Court of First Instance of Sukhbaatar District in the Mongolian capital, Ulaanbaatar. Unurtsetseg was found guilty of five charges: “tax evasion”, “disclosure of personal information”, “illegal acquisition of state secrets”, “money laundering”, and “spreading false information”. While the court stated that its decision to hold the trial behind closed doors was based on the grounds of national security and protecting the sensitive information of a minor, its complete gag on disclosing any information about the proceedings is a worrying sign.

The initial proceedings were widely criticised by civil society groups in Mongolia, who pointed out that, despite the serious nature of the charges brought against this journalist, the court had conducted the trial behind closed doors. A joint statement by Mongolian press freedom NGOs declared that the decision goes against the principle of an open, transparent court, and could potentially result in “unpredictability of the media industry’s process, intimidation, and foster self-censorship among journalists.”

“By sentencing a reporter to nearly five years in prison mainly on national security charges after a closed-door trial — and providing no information on the evidence produced — the Criminal Court of First Instance of Sukhbaatar District created a dangerous and concerning precedent that could deter Mongolian journalists from investigating topics of public interest. We urge the Capital City Court of Criminal Appeals, which will revisit the case, to ensure transparency and open as much of the trial as possible to the public.

Cédric Alviani

RSF’s Asia-Pacific Bureau Director

Unurtsetseg Naran is well-known for her investigations exposing the corruption and money laundering of high-ranking Mongolian officials, work that previously led to at least 16 defamation charges against her, according to RSF’s information. In this ongoing case, she was first investigated for “spreading false information” following her social media posts criticising the Mongolian judicial system, then later charged with more serious offences. She was arrested in December 2023, detained for over two months, and then placed under house arrest before being sent to jail.

Press freedom has recently deteriorated in Mongolia, despite the government's claims that it is committed to democratic values. In May 2024, journalist Bayarmaa Ayurzana was arrested, detained and subsequently charged in connection with investigations into alleged misconduct by the country’s former deputy prime minister, who is now a member of parliament.

Mongolia, ranked 109th out of 180 territories in RSF’s 2024 World Press Freedom Index, has plummeted down 36 places since 2020. The press freedom situation is considered “difficult” due to frequent abusive legal proceedings against journalists, the concentration of media ownership, and growing political pressure and corruption among political elites that impact the media.

As Mongolia faces frequent dzud—an extreme winter condition that devastates livestock and livelihoods—herder families and their children are increasingly vulnerable. The harsh conditions often force herders to focus on immediate survival, leaving children at risk of neglect and without support. We work in remote Mongolian districts to safeguard the well-being of Mongolian children during challenging winters.

According to the UNDRR, climate change and environmental degradation are leading to increased violence against children and adverse effects on children's physical and mental health. In times of hardship, herder parents and caregivers often prioritise other emergency concerns, leading to a rise in child neglect. We are addressing the educational, health, and child protection needs of herder families affected by the dzud (severe winter conditions) in the remote areas of Bayan-Ölgii and Khovd provinces in western Mongolia. The local Children's and Family Development and Protection Offices of these provinces were entrusted with delivering the project services. As a result, multi-disciplinary child protection teams from 18 selected soums (districts) were trained and delivered child protection services.

"One of our three children has cerebral palsy," says Mrs. Jamiya from Bayan-Ulgii. "Because of his health, we prefer to live near the hospital in the soum (district) centre. While my husband stays with our livestock in the countryside, I stay at home, looking after the children and raising cattle. We received a visit from a child protection team last summer; they assessed our situation and gave advice; we ceased leaving our young children at home unsupervised. Now, we ask for help from relatives when needed. There are no services or facilities in our soum for children with disabilities, which makes things very difficult."

Our teams visited 270 remote herder households, conducting child protection risk assessments and providing on-site guidance and resources to over 800 children and parents. We also visited dormitories in the 18 participating soum schools to guide dormitory staff, principals, and social workers on ensuring a safe study environment for children. Recognising the needs of these remote communities, we also distributed educational supplies, nutritional supplements, and books to support the development of nearly 3,400 children living in dormitories and herder households. Acknowledging the financial burdens faced by these families, the project also provided one-time cash assistance to the 270 herder households to help meet their children's educational and health needs.

"I learned that it's important to communicate properly with children and maintain a warm and positive family atmosphere," says Mrs. G.Saruulzaya, a herder from Khovd province.

The pace of climate change in Mongolia is accelerating; the average temperature has increased by 2.1°C over the last 80 years. This is twice as fast as the global average, and it is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of the country's devastating dzud events. According to the National Statistics Office, last year's dzud resulted in the loss of 8.1 million livestock animals across the country, further intensifying the child protection challenges faced by vulnerable herders. Recognising the gravity of this issue, other international organisations and the Mongolian government have also taken proactive steps. In addition to the adoption of the "Child Protection During Disasters and Emergencies MNS 6948:2021" national standard, which ensures that child protection is addressed at all levels during disasters, the revised Child Protection Law, approved earlier this year, also includes provisions addressing this issue.

"We used the money to buy clothes, school uniforms, and other supplies for our three daughters," says Mr. D.Byambadorj, a herder from Khovd province

Over the past 10 years, around 700 children have lost their lives in natural disasters and related accidents and domestic incidents across Mongolia. This is largely due to a lack of parental supervision, insufficient access to kindergartens and schools, and the absence of safe places for children to spend their free time, according to the National Emergency Management Agency. The "REACH- RESILIENCE, EDUCATION, AID FOR CHILDREN AND HERDER FAMILIES IN MONGOLIA AFFECTED BY DZUD" project findings shed light on these key risks facing children in herder households - the vulnerability of being left unsupervised while their parents tend to livestock or visit neighbours, children riding motorcycles, or being looked after by other children.

Notably, the project's child protection experts, who are typically accustomed to reacting to reported cases, have emphasised the project's unprecedented focus on proactive risk assessments for herder households. For the first time, dedicated resources and collaborative efforts have united provincial child and family protection specialists and soum-level teams to address these issues and safeguard the well-being of herder children.

"Every child involved in the project is very happy; this project is the first to include all the children in our dormitory." says Mrs. J.Alima

People in Need (PIN) implemented the "REACH" humanitarian aid project in Bayan-Ulgii and Khovd provinces with financial support from the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Club of Friends of PIN.

"Thanks to the project, we were able to buy the things we needed and get clothes for our two daughters. Thank you for giving me such a beautiful ger, mongolian traditional yurt," says Mr. B.Kauarkhan.

Autor: Amarjargal Dagvadorj (Head of Programmes), Togtokhmaa Zagir (MEAL Manager), Purevbat Bolorchuluun (Communications Officer)

M bank, a pioneering Mongolian digital bank, is excited to announce a strategic collaboration with Visa, a global payment technology company. This partnership aims to enhance cross-border payment processes for businesses and consumers, making international transactions faster, more secure, convenient, and cost-effective.

In a rapidly evolving financial landscape, M bank strives to provide its customers with easier access to global markets and seamless payment experiences. By integrating Visa’s robust payment platform, M Bank will enhance its offerings by allowing users to send and receive funds internationally with ease at a more cost-effective rate.

This partnership enables M bank to offer a cross-border payment solution to its customers, supporting 35 different currencies across over 180 countries. This streamlined solution is expected to capture some percentage of inbound and outbound transaction volume in the first year generating new revenue streams and reducing operational costs.

Partnering with Visa will also enable M bank to set global interoperable standards and capabilities to deliver innovative new commerce experiences to customers. A global open system will bring consistency to the payment experience in an increasingly globally connected world.

“This partnership marks a significant step forward in improving the digital banking landscape in Mongolia, ultimately contributing to the country’s economic growth and connectivity with the global market,” remarked Temuulen Batmunkh, Acting CEO of M bank.