Russia has $1.5bn plan to dent China’s rare earth dominance www.mining.com

Russia plans investment of $1.5 billion in rare earth minerals, critical to the defence, telecommunications and renewable energy sectors, as it strives to become the biggest producer after China by 2030, a top government official told Reuters.

China’s booming copper imports an echo of the last crisis www.mining.com

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

China’s imports of industrial metals are booming.

Refined copper imports hit an all-time high of 494,000 tonnes in June and accelerated again in July with the preliminary trade figures implying another record high of 530,000 tonnes.

Imports of unwrought aluminum, a mixture of primary metal and alloy, surged to 254,000 tonnes in June.

China’s trade in primary aluminum is normally minimal with imports and exports largely cancelling each other out, while the country has historically been a net exporter of alloy.

The only precedent for such a dramatic shift to net aluminum importer is back in 2009, when China came to the rescue of metal markets devastated by the impact of the global financial crisis.

The comparisons between the current covid-19 crisis and the credit meltdown a decade ago are accumulating.

But this may be a case of history rhyming with itself rather than repeating itself.

While many of the drivers behind China’s import surge are similar to those at work back in 2009, there is one important difference, namely the supply disruption that has followed the spread of the fatal coronavirus around the globe.

Supply disruption
There was no comparable wave of supply hits in the global financial crisis but rather a drip-drip of price-related closures.

Market forces have taken a toll on higher-cost miners this time around as prices plunged in the first quarter of the year.

But the bigger impact has come from national lockdowns and quarantine measures in countries supplying China with raw materials.

China’s imports of copper and aluminum scrap have collapsed by 50% and 54% respectively so far this year.

Scrap collection networks around the world have seized up and the resulting loss of supply has been compounded by China’s own flip-flopping on its scrap import purity rules.

The country is the world’s largest processor of old scrap into new copper and a major user of new scrap at the product manufacturing stage of the supply chain.

Scrap tightness is one important driver of China’s increased appetite for copper in refined metal form. The loss of aluminium scrap, meanwhile, is manifest in the dramatic turnaround in alloy trade flows.

Flows of metal concentrates from producer nations such a Peru have also been disrupted by lockdown.

Copper concentrate imports were flat year-on-year in the first seven months of 2020, a constrained outcome given China’s continuing build-out of smelter capacity and the consequent need for higher raw materials imports.

Lead concentrate imports fell by 25% in the first half of this year, compounding the scrap impact on a market that is heavily dependent on recyclable material.

Refined lead imports were subdued in the first part of 2020 but jumped to almost 10,000 tonnes in July, the highest monthly total since March 2019.

Zinc concentrate imports remained strong over most of the first half, up 42% on last year in bulk tonnage terms, but June’s imports slumped to a one-year low in June as shipments from locked-down Peru all but evaporated.

Refined metal imports were also running at a subdued level until June, when inflow jumped to a 10-month high of 65,000 tonnes.

Tin provides the clearest example of raw materials constraints feeding into the refined metal market.

Flows of tin concentrate, largely from mines in Myanmar, fell another 8% in January-June, extending a long-running downtrend. The combination with closures of some of China’s own mines has seen the country lift imports of refined tin to 9,400 tonnes from just 1,000 tonnes in the first half of 2019.

Indeed, China has flipped back from net exporter in 2018 and 2019 to net importer of the soldering metal.

Exuberance
Broken or damaged supply chains are the main differentiator, and an unambiguously bullish one, between this and the last crisis.

However, other drivers behind China’s import surge look remarkably similar.

Now, as then, China’s giant manufacturing sector has led the global recovery thanks to Beijing’s infrastructure-heavy stimulus.

That in turn has fed bullish exuberance on Chinese metal markets even while the rest of the world has gone into covid-19 meltdown. The resulting outperformance of Shanghai contracts such as aluminium has forced open an arbitrage window, through which increasing tonnages are now heading to China.

HOW LONG THESE SUPERCHARGED CHINESE IMPORTS CAN CONTINUE REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Now, as then, local Chinese prices have been artificially lifted by state purchases of unsold metal and stockpiling by regional governments lending a helping balance-sheet hand to local producers.

Now, as then, there is a strong sense of a speculative stock surge overlaying the industrial restocking exercise currently underway.

And just to heighten the sense of collective deja-vu, there is much speculation that the Chinese state is itself stockpiling copper.

The State Reserves Bureau is a secretive organisation so the speculation remains just that but every copper trader knows that the Bureau’s strategic purchases were a big part of the copper price rally from the 2009 lows below $3,000 per tonne to the all-time high of $10,190 in the second quarter of 2011.

There’s certainly no denying that the scale of China’s copper imports so far this year exceeds any analysts’ estimate of a “normal” industrial restocking cycle.

Soaking up surplus
The real impact of China’s renewed hunger for refined metal, however, is playing out in the international market.

LME copper stocks are currently low at 114,575 tonnes with more than half of that earmarked for physical load-out.

Such depleted inventory seems anomalous given the massive hit to demand that has occurred this year until you consider that China imported 440,000 tonnes more copper on a net basis in the first half of this year than last year.

That’s 440,000 tonnes that in all likelihood won’t be coming back again and July’s record tally will have lifted that figure significantly higher.

Similarly with aluminum. State research house Antaike is expecting primary imports of 400,000 tonnes this year, not enough to wipe out the expected surplus outside of China, but certainly sufficient to dent it.

How long these supercharged Chinese imports can continue remains to be seen.

But for now, it looks like China is coming to the rescue of industrial metal markets.

Again.

(Editing by Jane Merriman)

IOM Facilitates Return of 185 Mongolians Stranded in Czechia www.reliefweb.int

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia – The International Organization for Migration (IOM), in coordination with the Governments of Mongolia and Czechia, has assisted 185 Mongolians to return home this week (11-08). The group were part of 250 Mongolians stranded in Czechia and some eastern European countries after borders were closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mongolia’s repatriation statistics www.news.mn

Director General of the Consular Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs L.Munkhtushig gave a statement earlier today (11 Aug) at a press briefing of the Operative Team of the State Emergency Commission (SEC). Since 28 January, Mongolia has repatriated a total of 17117 of its nationals from pandemic-hit countries; the breakdown was: some 3000 of them were from South Korea, nearly 900 from USA, about 1200 from Europe and almost 500 from Southeast Asia.

World Bank policy recommendations on Mongolia discussed with Parliament Speaker www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. On August 10, Speaker of the Parliament G.Zandanshatar received a delegation led by World Bank Country Manager Andrei Mikhnev to discuss Mongolia’s development priorities, including economic diversification and banking sector reforms.

Washington threatens to kick Chinese companies off US stock exchanges www.cnn.com

Chinese firms with shares traded on US stock exchanges could lose their listings if they won’t comply with US audit requirements, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned.
“As of the end of next year, if they do not fully comply, and that’s Chinese companies [and] any other companies, because they all have to comply with the same exact accounting ... they will be delisted on the exchanges,” he said.

Putin hails new Sputnik moment as Russia is first to approve a COVID-19 vaccine www.reuters.com

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had become the first country to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing, a move Moscow likened to its success in the Cold War-era space race.

The vaccine, which will be called “Sputnik V” in homage to the world’s first satellite launched by the Soviet Union, has however not yet completed its final trials.

Moscow’s decision to grant approval before then has raised concerns among some experts. Only about 10% of clinical trials are successful and some scientists fear Moscow may be putting national prestige before safety.

Putin and other officials have said it is completely safe. The president said one of his daughters had taken it as a volunteer and felt good afterwards.

“I know that it works quite effectively, forms strong immunity, and I repeat, it has passed all the necessary checks,” Putin told a government meeting.

The Russian business conglomerate Sistema has said it expects to put the vaccine, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, into mass production by the end of the year.

Government officials have said it will be administered to medical personnel, and then to teachers, on a voluntary basis at the end of this month or in early September. Mass roll-out in Russia is expected to start in October.

The vaccine is administered in two doses and consists of two serotypes of a human adenovirus, each carrying an S-antigen of the new coronavirus, which enter human cells and produce an immune response.

The platform used for the vaccine was developed by Russian scientists over two decades and had formed the basis for several vaccines in the past, including those against Ebola.

Authorities hope it will allow the Russian economy, which has been battered by fallout from the virus, to return to full capacity.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, said Russia had already received foreign requests for 1 billion doses. He said the vaccine was also expected to be produced in Brazil.

Dmitriev said clinical trials were expected to start soon in the United Arab Emirates and the Philippines. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has said he is willing to participate personally.

The approval by the health ministry comes before the start of a larger trial involving thousands of participants, commonly known as a Phase III trial.

Such trials, which require a certain proportion of participants to catch the virus to observe the vaccine’s effect, are normally considered essential precursors for a vaccine to receive regulatory approval.

The Moscow-based Association of Clinical Trials Organizations (ACTO), a trade body representing the world’s top drugmakers in Russia, this week urged the ministry to postpone approval until that final trial had been successfully completed.

In a letter to the ministry, it said there were high risks associated with registering a drug before that happened.

“It is during this phase that the main evidence of a vaccine’s efficacy is collected, as well as information on adverse reactions that could appear in certain groups of patients: people with weakened immunity, people with concomitant diseases and so forth,” it said.

“Normally you need a large number of people to be tested before you approve a vaccine,” said Peter Kremsner from the University Hospital in Tuebingen, Germany, currently testing CureVac’s COVID-19 vaccine in clinical trials.

“In that respect, I think it’s reckless to do that (approve it) if lots of people haven’t already been tested.”

Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said he had not heard any evidence that the vaccine was ready for widespread use.

“I hope that the Russians have actually definitively proven that the vaccine is safe and effective. I seriously doubt that they’ve done that,” Fauci, who is a member of the White House coronavirus task force, told National Geographic at an event to air on Thursday.

U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar, asked about Russia’s announcement, said safety was paramount and late-stage trials were key. He said the United States was on track for an effective vaccine by the end of the year, with six candidates under development.

“The point is not to be first with a vaccine. The point is to have a vaccine that is safe and effective,” Azar said on ABC News’ “Good Morning America” programme.

More than 100 possible COVID-19 vaccines are being developed around the world. At least four are in final Phase III human trials, according to WHO data.

Additonal reporting by Maxim Rodionov, Polina Ivanova and Alexander Marrow in Moscow and by Caroline Copley in Berlin, Josephine Mason and Kate Kelland in London, Susan Heavey and Eric Beech in Washington; Writing by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber/Andrew Osborn; Editing by Giles Elgood and Tom Brown

A surprise 'safe-haven' investment has surged 180% since March www.cnn.com

New York (CNN Business)Bitcoin is on a tear: The price of one bitcoin is now trading just above $11,500, the highest level in about a year. Bitcoin has surged more than 60% in 2020 and is up more than 180% from its mid-March lows of about $4,000.

What's driving the bitcoin spike? Experts say much of it is due to the weakness in the US dollar. The dollar has plunged in recent months on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero for years as a result of the financial disruption from the Covid-19 pandemic.
"It's a flight to safety," said James Putra, head of product strategy for TradeStation Crypto.
Of course, safety is a relative term these days. Investors may think that bitcoin is a good hedge against a falling dollar. But the virtual currency remains exceedingly volatile.
Bitcoin's intense swings could scare away some investors
Putra conceded that concerns about bitcoin hacks and security could make mass adoption of the cryptocurrency a difficult proposition for average consumers and investors. For example, a recent Twitter hack made it look like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Joe Biden, Kim Kardashian West and other verified accounts were promoting a cryptocurrency scam.
That's why some experts aren't convinced that bitcoin prices will keep climbing back toward their late 2017 record highs of near $20,000.

At some point, institutional investors (think hedge funds and other big money management firms) might cash in some of their bitcoin chips to take advantage of what Nick Cowan, CEO of GSX Group, dubbed an "obscene" rally since bitcoin bottomed in March.
"There is a herd who is in love with bitcoin that keeps pushing it higher. But is the smart money going to take a walk again?" Cowan said, noting that big institutions dumped bitcoin (along with many other assets) during the height of coronavirus fears earlier this year.
Still, Cowan conceded that the upward trend is the friend of bitcoin traders.
That may mean the bitcoin rally has legs after all -- especially since the Fed's recent moves are expected to eventually lead to higher inflation. In fact, prices are already edging up. The US government reported Tuesday that wholesale prices rose much more than expected in July.
More inflation could further weaken the dollar, push bond yields lower and provide another boost to bitcoin.
"Central banks have moved quickly to shore up the economy and some people are expecting a big post-Covid rebound," Cowan said. "The bounceback could be quite quick."
Digital gold for younger investors
The surge in bitcoin mirrors the rise of gold, which recently hit a new all-time high above $2,000 an ounce.
"Bitcoin's rise is the same story as gold. Investors are looking for alternatives to stocks, bonds and the dollar," said Will Rhind, CEO of ETF manager GraniteShares. "Gold is the currency of last resort, but bitcoin has cemented itself as an alternative to the dollar as well."
TradeStation's Putra agreed. He said many older investors are sticking with gold to hedge against the dollar's weakness, although the under-40 set is skewing more towards bitcoin.
"Bitcoin is doing so well and it's nice to bet on the fastest horse," Putra said.
Anxious investors are pushing gold prices to all-time highs
Anxious investors are pushing gold prices to all-time highs
Rhind isn't sure that bitcoin will ever be as popular as gold given that it lacks the commodity's "universal appeal" because of its volatility.
But bitcoin is winning more converts -- even in the corporate finance departments of Corporate America.
Business intelligence software company MicroStrategy announced Tuesday that it recently bought about $250 million in bitcoin to hold it on its balance sheet. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) surged more than 10% on the news.
"This investment reflects our belief that bitcoin, as the world's most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a dependable store of value and an attractive investment asset with more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash," said MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor in a statement.
One expert said he would not be shocked if other companies soon follow MicroStrategy's lead and add the cryptocurrency to their balance sheets.
"Any firm with a large corporate treasury to manage has to think more about how they allocate their assets," said Zac Prince CEO of BlockFi, a firm that makes loans with cryptocurrencies. "This is probably the beginning of a trend."

China-Mongolia border port sees cargo volume increases www.xinhuanet.com

HOHHOT, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The border port of Erenhot in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has seen its imported and exported cargo volumes this year exceed 10 million tonnes as of Monday, up by 15.6 percent year on year, according to the China Railway Hohhot Group.

TİKA’s Agricultural Support for Mongolia Continues www.tika.gov.tr

Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA) built a winter greenhouse for Khotons, who can only grow vegetables for one season due to the climatic conditions in Mongolia.