Hong Kong, December 09, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the long-term foreign currency deposit ratings of eight Mongolian banks to B3 from Caa1. At the same time, Moody's has downgraded the long-term foreign currency counterparty risk ratings of all nine Mongolian banks that Moody's rates to B3 from B2.

The rating actions are driven by changes in the foreign currency (FC) country ceilings applied to Mongolia following the publication of Moody's updated Country Ceilings Methodology on 7 December 2020. This methodology is available at this link: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx....

Today's rating actions cover: (1) Bogd Bank LLC, (2) Capitron Bank LLC, (3) Development Bank of Mongolia LLC (DBM), (4) Golomt Bank LLC, (5) Khan Bank LLC, (6) State Bank LLC, (7) Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia LLC (TDBM), (8) Transport and Development Bank LLC (TransBank), and (9) XacBank LLC.

All other ratings and assessments of the above banks are unaffected by today's actions.

The full list of affected credit ratings is provided at the end of the press-release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating actions on nine Mongolian banks are driven by changes in country ceilings under Moody's updated country ceilings methodology. Country ceilings indicate the highest rating level that generally can be assigned to the financially strongest obligations of issuers domiciled in a country.

The updated ceilings methodology has unified deposit ceilings with the typically higher debt ceilings, whereby LC and FC country ceilings are no longer distinguished between deposit and debt ceilings. These changes reflect Moody's view that the risks that affect access to bank deposits are not materially different from those that affect the ability of banks and non-banks to service their debt obligations.

FOREIGN CURRENCY CEILINGS

As a result of the methodology change, Mongolia's FC ceiling has been changed to B3. Consequently, the long-term FC deposit ratings of eight Mongolian banks have been upgraded to B3, because these ratings were previously constrained by FC deposit ceiling.

At the same time, long-term FC counterparty risk ratings of all nine rated Mongolian banks were downgraded to B3, because these ratings are now subject to the new FC ceiling of B3, as opposed to the FC debt ceiling of B1 previously.

OUTLOOK

The outlook on all nine rated Mongolian banks is negative. The negative outlook, in place since May 2020, is driven by the negative outlook on the Mongolian government's B3 issuer rating, reflecting rising external vulnerability risks related to a sharp fall in export revenue at a time when access to external financing is highly uncertain.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Bogd Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade the bank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

Capitron Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade Capitron Bank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans increase significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

Development Bank of Mongolia LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term issuer rating to stable if the sovereign's outlook is changed to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade DBM's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans increase significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

Golomt Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade Golomt Bank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

Khan Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade Khan Bank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans increase significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

State Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade State Bank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of TDBM's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if (1) the outlook on the sovereign rating returns to stable, (2) the risks in the bank's operating environment remain broadly stable, and (3) the bank maintains stable credit metrics.

Moody's could downgrade TDBM's ratings if its BCA is downgraded or if the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening in its capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity materially deteriorates.

Transport and Development Bank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the bank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign rating outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade TransBank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening of its capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength materially deteriorates.

XacBank LLC:

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of XacBank's ratings is unlikely in the near future. Moody's could change the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings back to stable if the sovereign's outlook returns to stable and the risks in the operating environment remain broadly stable.

Moody's could downgrade XacBank's ratings if its BCA is downgraded and/or the sovereign rating is downgraded. The bank's BCA could be downgraded if its problem loans rise significantly without a strengthening of capitalization, or if its funding and/or liquidity strength deteriorates significantly.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks Methodology published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx.... Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

All entities are headquartered in Ulaanbaatar. The banks reported the following assets as of 31 December 2019:

Bogd Bank LLC: MNT249 billion (USD91 million)

Capitron Bank LLC: MNT1.0 trillion (USD369 million)

Development Bank of Mongolia LLC: MNT4.27 trillion (USD1.56 billion)

Golomt Bank LLC: MNT6.64 trillion (USD2.43 billion)

Khan Bank LLC: MNT10.19 trillion (USD3.72 billion)

State Bank LLC: MNT3.30 trillion (USD1.20 billion)

Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia LLC: MNT7.80 trillion (USD2.85 billion)

Transport and Development Bank LLC: MNT524 billion (USD191 million)

XacBank LLC: MNT3.45 trillion (USD1.26 billion)

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

..Issuer: Bogd Bank LLC (Analyst: Sean Roh)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: Capitron Bank LLC (Analyst: Sean Roh)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: Development Bank of Mongolia LLC (Analyst: Tae Jong Ok)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

..Issuer: Golomt Bank LLC (Analyst: Tae Jong Ok)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: Khan Bank LLC (Analyst: Tae Jong Ok)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: State Bank LLC (Analyst: Sean Roh)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia LLC (Analyst: Tae Jong Ok)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: Transport and Development Bank LLC (Analyst: Sean Roh)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

..Issuer: XacBank LLC (Analyst: Sean Roh)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Downgraded to B3 from B2

....Long-term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Upgraded to B3, negative from Caa1, negative

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx....

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Moody's considers a rated entity or its agent(s) to be participating when it maintains an overall relationship with Moody's. Unless noted in the Regulatory Disclosures as a Non-Participating Entity, the rated entities are participating and the rated entities or their agent(s) generally provide Moody's with information for the purposes of its ratings process. Please refer to www.moodys.com for the Regulatory Disclosures for each credit rating action under the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page and for details of Moody's Policy for Designating Non-Participating Rated Entities.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx....

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Se Hoon Sean Roh

Analyst

Financial Institutions Group

Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.

24/F One Pacific Place

88 Queensway

Hong Kong

China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)

JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350

Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Sophia Lee, CFA

Associate Managing Director

Financial Institutions Group

JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350

Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:

Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.

24/F One Pacific Place

88 Queensway

Hong Kong

China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)

JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350

Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ The second refined coal briquettes factory was commissioned on December 8 and Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh attended the opening of the factory.

Expressing gratitude and wishing success to builders, engineering and technical staff and all staff of “Tavan Tolgoi Tulsh” LLC and Eastern Regional Plant who took part in construction of the factory, the PM said that reducing air pollution in Ulaanbaatar city was one of pressing issues for our Government. As a result of making the bold decision to provide Ulaanbaatar with refined coal briquettes, we could mitigate air pollution in the capital city where around 1.5 million population reside, by 50 percent. According to a study, 400-450 children aged 0-3 and 2-2.5 thousand people had lost their lives yearly due to direct and indirect impact of smog and air pollution. Unfortunately, we had not seen any achievements despite spending MNT700 billion for resolving the issue in the past 20 years. However, today we have achieved the goal we put thanks to our joint efforts. Also the Government has resolved to sell refined coal at 50 percent discount. It is certain that the decision would save many people's lives and protect their health.

The new eastern regional factory is located in the southeastern part of Nalaikh district and it consisted of the first and second plants and recycling plant. The two plants have up-to-date, advanced six production lines, manufactured in South Korean Jeil machinery Co.,Ltd. It is expected to cause less adverse impact to the environment as its manufacturing process including receiving raw material (coking coal), coal crushing and screening will run underground, according to officials.

On January 29 of this year, the Government of Mongolia issued a resolution on building and commissioning a refined coal briquette factory in the eastern region of Ulaanbaatar city. According to it, construction works of the factory with an annual output capacity of 600 thousand tons commenced last May.

The new factory is provided with electricity from a substation and power transmission line in route of Nalaikh-Khushig Valley. Also a condition has been created for the factory to receive its raw material from Tavantolgoi deposit by railroad and transport its product by railroad too. Furthermore, the factory is launching its operation with 256 workers. When the plant starts working with its full capacity, 1056 people will work there, creating additional 800 jobs.

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Mineral products' export made up 69 percent of the total export in the first 11 months of this year. However, export of minerals went down by 20 percent, reaching USD 4.7 billion compared to the same period of previous year, the Customs General Administration reports.

Stone coal export made up 29 percent of the total export and copper concentrate 22 percent. In the first 11 months of this year, Mongolia exported about 27 million tons of stone coal valued at over USD 2 billion. Coal export ran normal in September and October, but local transmission cases of COVID-19 recorded in the country has lead to sharp decline in the coal export since the middle of November as the Chinese side has tightened its border control.

Corresponding officials are working to set up disinfection and protection zones in Gashuunsukhait and Shiveekhuren border crossing ports alongside involving coal truck drivers in the coronavirus testing.

Regarding the copper concentrate, a total of 1.25 million tons was exported, earning USD 1.5 billion in the first 11 months of the year. Export of copper concentrate is running relatively normal. Since the beginning of December, copper price at London Metal Exchange reached its highest point in the last seven years.

For other mineral products, oil export has declined drastically. The exported oil worth of USD 128.2 million shows 2.6 times decline from the previous year.

While export of zinc dropped by 13 percent, earning USD 152.3 million. Furthermore, fluoride export decreased by 25 percent while export of iron ore went up by 13 percent, the Customs General Administration reports.

(Reuters) -Apple Inc on Tuesday unveiled its new AirPods Max, a set of wireless over-ear headphones, at $549 apiece, pricier than some of its other popular phone and tablet products, in a measure aimed at boosting sales over the December holiday period.

The new AirPods, which will have up to 20 hours battery life, will be shipped starting next Tuesday, Apple said. But less than 12 hours after Apple announced the products, shipping times for U.S. customers had stretched past a dozen weeks, according to review of Apple’s website, pushing arrival times well into 2021.

Because over-ear headphones create a seal around the ear, they are capable of delivering higher audio quality than in-ear devices and remain the standard form factor in professional studios. The AirPods Max model will compete with high-end headphones such as Bose’s Noise Cancelling 700 units, which retail for $340 with holiday discounts.

At $549, AirPods Max headphones are more expensive than Apple’s entry-level iPhone, iPad and Watch models. The company also said Tuesday that pricing for its base, in-ear AirPods model and AirPods Pro model would remain the same at $159 and $249, respectively.

The company said the AirPods Max contains nine microphones and two of its H1 chips, Apple’s custom-designed audio processor. The microphones help reduce wind noise on phone calls, provide noise cancellation and also adjust audio levels in real time using microphones inside the ear cups.

The company’s last quarter results showed a rise in sales in its accessories unit, even as revenue from its flagship iPhones dropped 20.7%, the steepest quarterly drop in two years. For the company’s fiscal 2020, accessories sales were up 16% at $53.8 billion, while iPhone sales were down 3% at $137.8 billion.

Apple had launched its newest iPhone range with faster 5G connectivity in October, a month later than its usual September release, due to pandemic-linked delays.

The company also said Apple Fitness+, its $10 per month fitness subscription service, will be launched on Dec. 14. Shares of Peloton Interactive Inc, which also offers virtual fitness classes, were down 2% in before-market trading.

Reporting by Munsif Vengattil and Ayanti Bera in Bengaluru and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Bernadette Baum and Sonya Hepinstall

The US House of Representatives has passed a resolution to elevate ties with Mongolia to a strategic partnership level, which means the two countries are set to intensify cooperation in a number of areas.

The move is essentially formal approval of the same announcement made during President Battulga’s visit to Washington last year.

It does, however, confirm that there is rare bipartisan consensus in the US for improved relations with Mongolia.

It’s also a good omen for the Third Neighbour Trade Act, which Congress has yet to approve.

The text of the resolution also suggests that the US government sees business ties as the main method of improving relations.

“The House encourages the US Government to help Mongolia use its benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences program and other relevant programs to increase trade between the United States and Mongolia,” the resolution says.

“The House urges the US International Development Finance Corporation to expand activities in Mongolia to support economic development, diversification of the economy of Mongolia, and women-owned small- and medium-sized enterprises.”

The resolution also ‘urges’ American businesses to invest in Mongolia: “The House urges private and public support to help diversify the economy of Mongolia through increased cooperation and investments, as well as infrastructure and other vital projects.”

President Battulga’s office was upbeat about the influence of the resolution on the progress of the Trade Act.

“The Resolution on Strengthening the US-Mongolia Strategic Partnership, adopted as a result of [the 2019 visit], is important for deepening bilateral relations based on common strategic interests, democratic values, good governance, sovereignty, and respect for human rights,” his office said.

“In addition, it will stimulate the discussion of the draft ‘Third Neighbor Trade Act’ submitted to the US Congress.”

Mongolia's COVID-19 tally rose to 888 on Tuesday after one more case was registered in the past 24 hours, said the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD).

The latest confirmed case was locally transmitted in the northern Mongolian province of Selenge, the NCCD said in a statement.

A total of 456 local cases have been reported nationwide so far, notably in the capital city of Ulan Bator and provinces of Selenge, Darkhan-Uul, Govisumber, Orkhon, Dornogovi and Arkhangai.

The first locally-transmitted case in Mongolia was found in a woman, whose 29-year-old husband, a transport driver, returned from Russia and tested positive for the virus four days after he was released from a 21-day mandatory isolation on Nov. 6.

The Asian country's nationwide lockdown, imposed on Nov. 12, expired on Dec. 1.

However, the government has extended the lockdown in Ulan Bator and the provinces of Selenge and Arkhangai by 10 days until Dec. 11. The majority of the confirmed local cases were registered in Ulan Bator and Selenge.

The country has recorded 384 recoveries with no deaths so far. Enditem

4 December 2020- The Mongolian economy, having continued its slow recovery from recession through till October, was badly hit by the sudden near complete Government imposed lockdown in November, following the discovery of the first locally transmitted cases of Covid-19.

Having escaped the problems of a direct lockdown earlier in the year, although suffering a major impact in economic activity terms due to the lockdown in China, the current closure of many businesses has inevitably hit hard.

The lockdown that has been imposed in Mongolia is very strict, impacting all businesses except supermarkets, food shops, gas stations and hospitals. Police patrol 24/7 to ensure compliance, and many major roads have roadblocks and control points.

Consequently the Sales Managers Indexes for November all show sharp falls.

Economic activity is likely to remain depressed until such time as the Government considers it safe to allow businesses to re-open.

source: World Economics

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. Since Mongolia’s announcement of strict-lockdown regime in response to the current situation of COVID-19, the Ulaanbaatar Railway JSC has been providing prompt international transport of food and emergency goods for uninterrupted import to Mongolia and building up reserves as instructed by the Ministry of Road and Transport Development and the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry.

Within the framework of foreign cooperation, a request was put forth to the neighboring railways companies to provide trains and transport food freights of Mongolia till the border checkpoint and hand it over to the Ulaanbaatar Railway. Although the Russian and Chinese railways are congested, the countries are transporting urgent goods, for example from Russia wheat and consumer goods, and from China rice, sugar, and fuel binders, to the border checkpoints.

In addition, the number of vehicles passing through the Zamiin-Uud-Erlian road border checkpoint has been drastically reduced, and due to the accumulation of freights in Erlian, there is a possibility of shortage in some products, according to relevant organizations and companies. To this end, preliminary agreement has been reached with the Chinese Railway to transfer freights to the Ulaanbaatar Railway trains at the Erlian railway station. According to international railway agreements, rules, and regulations, Erlian handles only narrow-gauge Chinese trains, and there are other technical issues for loading freight to Ulaanbaatar Railway’s trains. However, the issues have been resolved thanks to the urgent talks held with Chinese Railway and preparations are underway.

It is the priority to ensure continuous international rail transport, which is important for the country's social, economic security, foreign trade and export earnings amid the pandemic. In this regard, it is necessary to cooperate with neighboring railways in order to eliminate the risk of the disease transmission through railway freights and technical agents who visit each other's border stations, which is an integral part of the technology of transferring and receiving trains from neighboring railway stations. Temporary technological procedures for the transfer of trains without agents, through electronic networks and other means have been developed and are being implemented at the Sukhbaatar and Zamyn-Uud border stations. As a result, the agents of the two countries are exchanging trains without crossing their respective borders.

Rio Tinto may face calls to pay compensation or a fine when an Australian parliamentary inquiry releases an interim report on Wednesday into how the firm legally destroyed ancient sacred rock shelters for an iron ore mine, industry sources said.

The inquiry into the destruction of the 46,000-year-old Juukan Gorge rock shelter in May has heard testimony from dozens of people and more than 140 submissions from miners, heritage specialists and Aboriginal and civil society groups.

The committee is due to table its report to the Senate on Wednesday afternoon, after covid-19 disruptions delayed hearings, and is now more likely to finish in the second half of 2021 once it has heard testimony from other states, an official told Reuters.

It is widely expected to castigate Rio on its failures as well as propose mining industry and legal reform. Its findings may also include a call for compensation.

“I think the only risk is that Rio has to pay some form of restitution,” said analyst Glyn Lawcock of UBS in Sydney.

Even then, in the context of Rio Tinto’s $123 billion valuation, the amount was not likely to be material; however recommendations to overhaul legislation could result in delays to industry mine expansion plans in the years ahead, he said.

“That could slow the process down and that will have an impact on global supply and demand at the end of the day,” he said. Western Australia supplies 55% of China’s iron ore needs.

Rio is also expected to announce its new chief executive any day, after Jean-Sébastien Jacques and two other senior leaders agreed to step down in August due to the procedural failings it found led to the disaster and the way it was initially managed.

Front runners for the new job include Shell Australia chairman Zoe Yujnovich, who once ran Rio’s Canadian iron ore business, former BP Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary, Anglo American finance director Stephen Pearce, OZ Minerals CEO Andrew Cole, and former Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power.

(By Melanie Burton; Editing by Kim Coghill)

This excerpt is adapted from the book Young Mongols: Forging Democracy in the Wild, Wild East (Penguin Random House Southeast Asia, 2020) by Aubrey Menard with the author’s permission.

The book introduces readers to modern Mongolia through the stories of young leaders fighting to make their country a better, more democratic place.

Much like its cashmere and wool, coal is a resource that Mongolia exports raw without adding value. Frustratingly, not refining its own goods costs Mongolia even more than potential jobs and economic growth—Mongolia is often forced to buy back the refined products of the resource that it sold.

This is the case in Mongolia’s energy sector, where instead of building the power generation infrastructure necessary to turn its own raw coal into sufficient electricity to meet its own needs, Mongolia buys a significant portion of its electricity from its neighbours, Russia and China.

Orchlon Enkhtsetseg (CEO of Clean Energy Asia), who in 2016 made a switch from working in Mongolia’s mining sector to working in its energy sector, says that Mongolia’s reliance on its neighbours for power is a threat to its security and sovereignty. “It’s very hard to call yourself a fully independent country when you have two of your neighbours saying, “If you don’t behave, we’ll turn off the switch,” he says.

Throughout the day, Mongolia is able to meet its own energy demand, but when its citizens return home in the evening, they require additional electricity to illuminate their homes, watch their televisions, and use their appliances. After 6.00 p.m., Mongolia buys extra energy from Russia, using imported electricity to fill up to 13 percent of its needs annually.

Powering the mega mine

Powering the Oyu Tolgoi mining operation has been a major issue of contention between Rio Tinto and the Mongolian government. According to their agreement, the mega Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine must operate using a domestic power source by 2022. Building a power station large enough to power the mine will cost an estimated $1.5 billion.

In 2019, the two parties, who were long at odds about where the power station should be located and who should pay for it, finally settled on building a coal-powered plant at the nearby Tavan Tolgoi coal mine. By the agreement reached in June 2020 the government plans to begin construction in 2021.

But today 100 per cent of the mine’s electricity needs are met by China. This comes at a price of approximately $100 million annually.

Energy subsidies are killing infrastructure

Orchlon is frustrated by the government ignoring energy infrastructure needs until they reach a crisis point. ‘It’s the same situation for heating in UB, actually,’ he says, explaining the city’s urgent infrastructure needs in coming years.

According to Orchlon, ‘The energy sector is so behind because we don’t consider electricity to be a product. We think it’s a social benefit that we’re entitled to and that it’s the government’s duty to provide.’

At a mere $0.04 per kilowatt hour, Mongolia’s electricity costs are some of the lowest in the world because it is heavily subsidized across the supply chain.

As a point of comparison, Orchlon points out that the average Mongolian household pays only $7.50 to $9.50 for their monthly electricity bill but will pay $15 for a bottle of vodka. He says that if you visit the APU spirit company, which produces the award-winning Chinggis Khan brand of vodka, their facility is state-of-the- art because they are able to take their profits and reinvest them into their business. In comparison, Mongolia’s energy infrastructure is crumbling. The power plants and transmission lines are outdated and insufficient to handle the country’s energy needs.

Mongolia has untapped energy potential...

‘We do have a lot of coal, but we do have a lot more wind and solar,’ says Orchlon. For Orchlon, using Mongolia’s renewable energy sources isn’t just an abstract thought. As the CEO of Clean Energy Asia, Orchlon is working towards securing Mongolia’s place in a new energy future.

While otherwise problematic, Mongolia’s dry climate means that the sun is nearly always shining in the land of eternal blue sky. Those rays can be collected by solar panels and converted to electricity. The frequent desert winds that cause pesky dust storms can be captured by wind turbines and used for power. ‘In terms of potential, we actually have enough wind and solar resources to power the whole of Asia,’ says Orchlon.

… that could power all of Asia

SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his colleagues are working towards the Asia Super Grid concept involving building a cross-border power grid system connecting China, South Korea, Mongolia, Russia, and Japan. Its estimated cost is $6.2 billion.

In its final phase, the grid will reach as far as southeast Asia and India. Mongolia is at the heart of their plan—giant wind farms will feed renewable energy into the grid, generating export earnings for the country. Orchlon’s role in the project is to make sure that the renewable energy infrastructure in Mongolia gets built.

In 2017, after $128 million in investment, Clean Energy Asia opened the Tetsii windfarm, a 50-megawatt operation in the Gobi Desert. The project broke records for being the fastest-built farm of its size while also coming in under budget.

Orchlon credits the combination of Mongolian and Japanese strengths to the project’s success—‘Mongolians are very “roll up our sleeves, get it done,”’ he says. ‘And the Japanese are very focused on planning.’ While the Tetsii wind farm currently only supplies Mongolia, investors see its success as an indication that the Asia Super Grid project is truly feasible.

Building the wind farm meant getting permission from local herders, who have become more cautious about large projects being built on their land after seeing the destruction wrought by mining development.

A rumour had spread among herders that the turbines would blow away the clouds, making it rain less and drying out their lands. They also worried that the area would be fenced off, preventing them from grazing their animals.

To secure the buy-in of herders, Orchlon went on what he describes as a campaign: he donned his finest deel and went ger to ger addressing misconceptions and concerns.

He explained that the lowest clouds form at 3,000 metres and that wind turbines are 90 metres tall; wind turbines don’t generate wind bursts like fans do, but rather use the energy, like pinwheels. Area residents are now happy about the role their region plays in supplying clean energy and Orchlon describes getting the enthusiastic support of the community as his proudest accomplishment.

The future is clean

Currently, about 6 percent of Mongolia’s energy needs are met by renewable sources and the fragility of Mongolia’s grid will make it difficult to add much more intermittent renewable energy. Because solar and wind energy vary depending on the weather and time of day, they are a less stable energy source than traditional power generation methods. They cannot be turned on and off, meaning that they cannot adjust to meet the needs of the power grid.

The solution is for solar and wind farms to add storage capacity so that power can be banked and added to the grid more smoothly, with batteries being used to absorb fluctuations. Unfortunately, storage technology is still prohibitively expensive, but Orchlon is optimistic that the price will drop quickly as the renewable energy marketplace expands.

The Tetsii windfarm was built along the Gashuun Sukhait Road in the Gobi Desert, the same road that is used to truck coal from the Tavan Tolgoi mine into China. Sheep that graze there have had their coats turn black from coal dust and the exhaust of trucks that idle in long lines to bring the coal across the border. But on the other side of the road, white wind turbines reach towards the sky, promising a cleaner future.

Unlike the fraught discovery of mineral deposits, generating renewable energy may give Mongolia an opportunity to not only develop itself, but to develop the world in a sustainable way.

Aubrey Menard is an author of "Young Mongols: Forging Democracy in the Wild Wild East” book and a highly sought-after expert on politics, elections, and democracy. She’s been published in the New York Times, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, Politico, and the South China Morning Post. She lived in Mongolia and worked on democracy and governance issues in Asia and other parts of the world.