Mongolia's inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, was recorded at 7.0 percent in October, according to the latest data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Saturday.

This represents a notable decline of 2.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year, signaling the country's ongoing efforts to stabilize its economy.

However, despite the year-on-year decrease, the October inflation rate reflects a slight uptick of 0.3 percentage points compared to September. Experts from the NSO noted that while inflation remains on a downward trajectory over the long term, month-to-month fluctuations are to be expected as the economy continues to adjust to global and domestic factors.

In recent years, Mongolia has faced significant volatility in its inflation rates. The inflation rate peaked at a staggering 16.4 percent in July 2022, driven primarily by rising import prices, particularly energy and food products. Since then, the inflation rate has gradually decreased, which experts attribute to a combination of factors, including a marked increase in Mongolia's foreign exchange reserves and the relative stability of the Tugrik, the country's national currency.

The Mongolian government has set a medium-term target of stabilizing inflation at around 6 percent. Authorities believe achieving and maintaining this target is crucial for fostering sustainable economic growth and strengthening consumer confidence in the market.

A magnitude-5.0 earthquake occurred in Mongolia's Bayanhongor Province at around 04:37 Nov. 10. The epicenter was about 175 km (109 miles) west-southwest of Bayanhongor, Bayanhongor Province. The tremor occurred at a depth of about 10 km (6 miles), and light-to-moderate shaking was probably felt in areas near the epicenter. There have been no initial reports of damage or casualties as a result of the earthquake; significant damage is unlikely. It could take several hours until authorities can conduct comprehensive damage assessments, especially in remote areas. Aftershocks are likely over the coming days.

Officials may temporarily shut down transportation infrastructure in the tremor zone to check for damage. Minor disruptions could occur during shutdowns, but service will likely resume quickly if no damage is found. Utility outages are possible, particularly near the earthquake's epicenter.

On November 8, the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Board of Directors held a press conference to highlight significant concerns over the 2025 state budget proposal, expressing that the increased tax and spending burdens could heavily impact the private sector. Business leaders voiced concerns that escalating expenses, as outlined in the draft budget, risk overwhelming Mongolian enterprises and citizens alike with higher taxes and social security contributions.

The press conference raised issues of unfulfilled commitments by major political parties, including the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), Democratic Party (DP), and HUN Party, who had initially promised economic relief and support for businesses. These parties, which hold a substantial share of parliamentary seats, pledged to reduce budget expenditures and prioritize the growth of the private sector. However, the 2025 budget shows a different approach, with substantial increases in both budget revenue and expenditures.

The draft budget sets total revenue at 36.8 trillion MNT, with a balanced income of 33.9 trillion MNT and expenditures at 35.8 trillion MNT. Compared to 2023, budget revenue has surged by 15 trillion MNT (68.8 percent), and budget expenditure by 13.4 trillion MNT (60 percent), with current expenses climbing by 9.1 trillion MNT (53.9 percent). Critics argue that the budget’s focus on high projected income and excessive current expenses could inflate government involvement in the economy, thereby limiting space for private sector growth.

According to the board, the tax structure embedded in the budget proposal allocates 87 percent of revenue from taxes, translating to 31.9 trillion MNT, an increase of 49 percent over 2023. This elevated tax requirement, along with social security premiums, may intensify the financial strain on businesses, potentially limiting their ability to sustain growth and job creation.

The private sector representatives in attendance emphasized that the fiscal overexpansion could shrink private sector activity by redirecting resources toward government initiatives. “This budget’s tax structure will make it exceptionally difficult for businesses to shoulder the financial load in 2025,” the board members noted, adding that the increased tax and insurance burdens, combined with rising interest rates, could further strain the country’s economic stability.

The business leaders called for significant reforms in fiscal policy, emphasizing a shift away from current overexpansion tendencies. They proposed scaling back current expenses during periods of high economic growth, supporting impactful investment projects, and adjusting the social welfare policy from a welfare-centric model toward a labor-focused approach.

The board members highlighted that such reforms could alleviate the tax burden on businesses and individuals while enhancing private sector participation in Mongolia’s economy. They also urged relevant officials to uphold the Budget Stability Law’s accountability provisions, ensuring that fiscal policy remains sustainable and growth-oriented. Moreover, the companies collectively pledged to monitor the government’s budget discussions and ensure that the 2025 budget incorporates balanced policies that support rather than inhibit Mongolia’s economic development.

The “MEMORIAD 2024 World Mental Sports Olympics” is currently underway in the UAE, running from November 7 to November 9. Often described as an “Intellectual Olympics,” this competition gathers participants from over 60 countries to compete in various mental disciplines, such as mental calculations, memory, and speed reading. Events include mental math categories like Flash Anzan, multiplication, division, and calculating square roots, as well as memory challenges like rapid recall of numbers and cards. Top participants have a chance to win a portion of the $27,000 prize fund and set or break world records​.

This year, 180 athletes from 35 countries in 12 categories are competing in the “Intellectual Olympics”, which is held once every four years.

Mongolia already won four medals in “Speed card” category in junior and adult categories.

Adult category:

Gold: N.Munkhshur 19.47 sec

Silver: Ts.Oyun-Erdene 20.62 sec

Bronze: Ts.Nomin-Erdene 22.05 sec

Junior category:

Gold: O.Irmuun 37.8 sec

N.Munkhshur, two-time World Memory Champion, International Grandmaster, won the gold medal in the card category and became the owner of the title of champion of the :Intellectual Olympics”.

At a press conference, N.Nomtoibayar, the Member of the Parliament and Leader of National Coalition Party, voiced serious objections to the state budget about to be approved. He stated that the National Coalition Party has opposed the budget from the beginning, as high taxes and contributions limit enterprise growth and economic expansion. According to him, the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly insisted that tax cuts are impossible due to tight budget constraints.

N.Nomtoibayar noted that the current expenditures have surged from MNT 20 to 30 trillion and raised concerns over what he views as a suppression of dissent within the MPP, saying critics face isolation or even legal action.

Nomtoibayar also defended D.Enkhtuvshin against the MPP's demands for an apology regarding the citizen trust agreement, saying, "I made this demand out of concern for Mongolia's future." He further suggested that if the budget leads to economic instability, Parliament should consider a vote of confidence in Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene.

If approved as it stands, he warned of rising inflation, increasing debt, and a continued immigration of young people. He plans to request a veto from President U.Khurelsukh, asserting that "The first parliament with 126 members is functioning more like a government agency than a true legislative body".

Copper prices plunged on Wednesday as Donald Trump reclaimed the White House, with a surging dollar pressuring commodities. At the same time, traders weighed the ramifications of his views on trade, geopolitics and the US economy.

The red metal dropped the biggest since May as Trump’s win rippled through global markets, sending the dollar on course for its best day since 2020.

Copper sank as much as 4.3% during a broad selloff on the London Metal Exchange, tracking steep losses in the Chinese yuan.

The metal also fell 4.6% to $9,389 a tonne in early morning trade on the Comex in New York.

Alongside the immediate impact of a weakening currency in the world’s top commodities consumer, traders are also bracing for a potential knock to demand if Trump follows through with pledges to deepen the US-China trade war.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

A gauge of steel companies’ stocks jumped as much as 12%, the biggest intraday gain since March 2020, on anticipation that Trump will return to the White House favoring one of his top priorities during his first administration: tariffs on steel imports from across the globe.

Investors will also be mindful that Beijing could respond with stimulus measures to invigorate domestic demand, said Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie.

(With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)

During Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Mongolia on Oct. 28-29 for a meeting with President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, Tokayev emphasized the need to increase cooperation in the mining industry alongside other important economic sectors. He noted that both sides require anchor projects capable of providing a significant boost to the development of economic cooperation. Kazakhstan became Mongolia’s first strategic partner country in Central Asia.

The visit was preceded by a meeting between the two leaders at the SCO summit in Astana, where the parties agreed to establish a Kazakhstan-Mongolia Business Council and adopt a roadmap for enhancing trade and economic cooperation. Despite historically low levels of trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Mongolia, which did not exceed $200 million, Kazakhstan’s significant exports compared to imports from Mongolia indicate potential for growth. The last state visit by a Kazakh leader to Mongolia was in 2008, and only after Tokayev’s visit this year was the business council launched between the two states.

The key factors facilitating the state visit to Mongolia include Mongolia’s potential membership in the Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Area (FTA EAEU) and the development of alternative transport routes for Mongolia, especially considering the European Union countries’ interest in Mongolian mineral resources.

Mongolia on the Path to EAEU Free Trade Area

During the visit, Tokayev emphasized that Kazakhstan and Mongolia closely cooperate at both international and regional levels, maintaining similar positions on many current issues. He noted that Kazakhstan supports Mongolia’s intention to conclude a Free Trade Agreement with the EAEU.

Since 2022, Tokayev has visited almost all countries with which the EAEU has concluded free trade agreements: Iran, Singapore, and Vietnam. Additionally, a visit to Serbia, which has been a member of the EAEU FTA since 2021, is expected. In 2023, Tokayev stated that the EAEU should expand free trade areas with other countries.

Mongolia is actively pursuing the conclusion of a provisional free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, expecting to complete negotiations by the end of 2024. The country aims to reduce or eliminate import duties on certain categories of goods, which will lower the cost of imports and enhance the competitiveness of products in the domestic market. Special emphasis is placed on increasing the export of livestock products, obtaining exemption from import taxes in EAEU countries.

Strategic directions of cooperation

In the field of economic cooperation, Mongolia aims to develop bilateral trade and improve market access by eliminating trade barriers. Investments and cooperation in the development of national production capacities and industrial enterprises are intended to enhance the competitiveness of the country’s industry. Progress in implementing the agreement has been noted since 2015, when the initial cooperation agreement between Mongolia and the EAEU was signed. In 2020, a joint research group was established to explore the possibility of concluding a free trade agreement, and in May 2024, following a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, negotiations on a provisional trade agreement officially began. At this stage, the parties have already agreed on the framework of the future trade agreement, indicating significant progress in the negotiations.

In trade and investment, joint projects are planned in raw material processing and the development of logistics infrastructure. This progress also has a substantial impact on relations with Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and Mongolia intend to increase bilateral trade turnover to $500 million, overcoming the current level of $150 million per year. Kazakhstan supports Mongolia’s aspiration to conclude a free trade agreement with the EAEU and facilitates the creation of the Mongolian-Kazakh Business Council. A roadmap for enhancing trade and economic cooperation for 2025–2027 has been signed, including cooperation in agriculture, industry and energy.

It is expected that Mongolia’s economy will grow by 6.5% in the coming years due to strengthening trade ties with the EAEU, with a nearly 25% increase in Mongolia’s trade turnover with Russia and other EAEU countries forecasted. The elimination or reduction of import duties on certain goods will make trade more affordable and stimulate economic integration. Mongolia’s transition from an observer status to an active trading partner of the EAEU marks a significant step in strengthening regional economic ties. The conclusion of a provisional free trade agreement opens new opportunities for the development of key sectors of Mongolia’s economy, including infrastructure, energy, agriculture and industry. Strategic partnerships with the EAEU and its individual members, such as Kazakhstan and Russia, contribute to sustainable economic growth and Mongolia’s integration into regional economic processes, while maintaining its multi-vector foreign policy.

Future of Kazakhstan and Mongolia in the global economy

Tokayev’s visit to Mongolia and the subsequent agreements demonstrate both countries’ commitment to strengthening their economic and strategic partnership. The establishment of a permanent Mongolia-Kazakhstan Business Council and the signing of commercial agreements indicate a serious intent to develop the mining industry and optimize transport routes for exporting strategic resources such as uranium and rare earth metals to European markets. Despite existing geopolitical and logistical challenges, including the necessity of transit through Russia or China and associated risks, cooperation between Kazakhstan and Mongolia opens new opportunities for diversifying economic ties and sustainable growth.

The inclusion of Mongolia in the EAEU Free Trade Area and the activation of cooperation with the European Union underscore both countries’ multi-vector approach to foreign policy and economic development. The successful implementation of anchor projects could become a key factor in ensuring Europe’s energy security and stimulating regional economic growth. Strategic partnerships with the EAEU and its individual members, such as Kazakhstan and Russia, contribute to sustainable economic growth and Mongolia’s integration into regional economic processes, all while maintaining its multi-vector foreign policy. Together, Kazakhstan and Mongolia are laying the foundation for mutually beneficial and sustainable cooperation, advancing the development of both countries and strengthening their positions on the international stage.

The author is Eldaniz Gusseinov, a non-resident research fellow at Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies of the Ibn Haldun University, Istanbul.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.

In October 2024, the Central Bank of Mongolia purchased 1,902.5 kg of precious metals, bringing the total amount to 14.1 tons since the beginning of the year. This figure represents a 0.6 percent decrease compared to the same period last year.

Since the beginning of the year, the Darkhan-Uul branch of the Central Bank of Mongolia has purchased 670.9 kg of precious metals, whereas the Bayan-Khongor branch- 1,085.7 kg.

The Central Bank of Mongolia determines the purchase price of precious metals based on global market prices. In October 2024, the average price for purchasing gold was MNT 292,856.04.